Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index              March 2012            70 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 07446          Pho:201-986-...
About Us TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full-service Market Research consultancy that helps  businesses identify, d...
Table Of ContentsI.        Methodology                                             4-5II.       Auto Demand Index         ...
I. Methodology
Methodology TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is an early (monthly) indicator of consumers’ intent  to purchase or lease ...
II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook  A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)  B. By Region  C. By Area Type  D. By Age  E. By G...
Auto Demand Index (Overall)The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index nosedived by 49                                            ...
Auto Demand Index Moving Averages                                                                                         ...
MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence 3 Month SMA (Fast Average) Vs 12 Month SMA (Slow Average)                    ...
By Region 3 SMA      Northeast                                                                     Midwest                ...
By Area Type 3 SMA                                                                                                        ...
By Age 3 SMA                                                                                                              ...
By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA                                                                                        ...
By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA                                                                               ...
By Household Income 3 SMA                                                                                                 ...
III. Demand For New Autos  A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall  B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over T...
Vehicle Purchase PlansMarch 2012                                                                                          ...
Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame March 2012                                                                              ...
Vehicle Type MomentumMarch 2012                                                                                           ...
Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMA                                                                                 ...
Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA                                                                           Pickup T...
IV. Brand Preferences  A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy  B. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodayMarch 2012                                                                        ...
By Vehicle Origin March 2012                                                                                            Ba...
Luxury vs. Non-LuxuryMarch 2012                                                                                 Base = All...
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)                                                                           ...
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5-8)                                                                             ...
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-10)                                                                            ...
Conclusions The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s  research has shown high...
Contact InformationTo request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.   Contact:                  Raghava...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index March 2012

573 views

Published on

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index -- March 2012

  • Be the first to comment

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index March 2012

  1. 1. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index March 2012 70 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 07446 Pho:201-986-1288 | Fax:201-986-0119 www.technometrica.com
  2. 2. About Us TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full-service Market Research consultancy that helps businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and synthesizing insights that are well-defined, accurate, and forward-thinking is our passion. Research is the foundation for all our endeavors. TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything we do: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new product development. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking. Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation. In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP – the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor’s Business Daily (1996 to present) – the nation’s fastest-growing financial publication – and with the Pulitzer Prize-winning Christian Science Monitor (1998 to present).TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 2
  3. 3. Table Of ContentsI. Methodology 4-5II. Auto Demand Index 6-15 A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender/Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household IncomeIII. Demand For New Autos 16-22 A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMAIV. Brand Preferences 23-29 A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMA B. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)V. Contact Information 30 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 3
  4. 4. I. Methodology
  5. 5. Methodology TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is an early (monthly) indicator of consumers’ intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007. The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: – How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely? We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles. The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers. Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents.TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 5
  6. 6. II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender and Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household Income
  7. 7. Auto Demand Index (Overall)The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index nosedived by 49 Base = All Respondentspoints, or 48%, in March posting its all time low 49 vs. 94 in High LowFebruary and 105 in January. 2007 129 79 2008 92 66 2009 95 55 2010 97 56 Auto Demand Index 3SMA 2011 94 49 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average 120 2012 105 49 100 80 60 40 20 0 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 May-10 May-11 Dec-10 Dec-11 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Feb-11 Feb-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Nov-11 In March, the TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index decreased significantly, going from 94 in February to 49 this month.TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 7
  8. 8. Auto Demand Index Moving Averages Base = All Respondents 95 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average 3SMA 6SMA 12SMA 6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average 90 12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 May-10 May-11 Dec-10 Dec-11 Oct-11 Oct-10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-12 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Feb-11 Feb-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Nov-11TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 8
  9. 9. MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence 3 Month SMA (Fast Average) Vs 12 Month SMA (Slow Average) Base = All Respondents 20 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 The momentum turned positive in November 2011 and since then increased steadily reaching an all-time high in February 2012, but fell in March. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 9
  10. 10. By Region 3 SMA Northeast Midwest Base = All Respondents150 150 12 SMA = 76 12 SMA = 66125 125100 83 100 87 78 77 75 80 72 68 75 67 91 75 84 56 44 50 50 50 25 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 South West 150 150 12 SMA = 64 125 111 100 125 102 100 79 100 78 75 66 68 66 68 65 60 75 68 75 52 50 50 25 25 12 SMA = 75 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 10
  11. 11. By Area Type 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Urban Suburban150 12 SMA = 75 150 12 SMA = 76125 125 105 83 88 86 89 91100 100 85 71 72 77 71 7875 69 75 6350 5025 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Rural 150 12 SMA = 62 125 100 81 86 77 75 58 60 53 44 50 25 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 11
  12. 12. By Age 3 SMA Base = All Respondents 18-24200 12 SMA = 114 25-44 200 12 SMA = 88175 145 175150 134 129 131 120 150 119125 110 110 90 125 95100 68 100 71 78 75 75 63 50 50 25 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 45-64 65+200 200 12 SMA = 36 12 SMA = 60175 175150 150125 125100 72 100 56 65 69 70 67 75 50 75 36 32 31 37 41 37 50 50 35 25 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 12
  13. 13. By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Male Female150 12 SMA = 80 150 12 SMA = 62125 109 125 97 97100 75 82 100 72 78 72 77 70 75 75 58 62 62 52 50 50 25 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Married Single150 12 SMA = 75 150 12 SMA = 66125 106 125 95 91100 82 100 78 74 65 74 70 7275 57 75 60 63 5650 5025 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 13
  14. 14. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Parents Non-Parents150 150 116 12 SMA = 61125 109 125 101 87 91 95 88100 100 78 83 72 6475 75 54 48 5750 5025 12 SMA = 91 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Black/Hispanic 140 White150 134 150 12 SMA = 64125 111 125 94100 76 100 75 76 71 59 62 63 6975 75 56 5850 5025 12 SMA = 84 25 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 14
  15. 15. By Household Income 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Under 30K 30K-50K150 150 12 SMA = 63125 104 125 93100 82 100 76 77 73 7475 56 63 75 61 51 53 43 4250 5025 25 12 SMA = 66 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 50K-100K 100K+150 150 12 SMA = 70 119125 125 107 110 102 88 95100 77 79 100 70 73 67 70 75 58 61 75 50 50 25 25 12 SMA = 89 0 0 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 15
  16. 16. III. Demand For New Autos A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA
  17. 17. Vehicle Purchase PlansMarch 2012 Base = All Respondents Likely 8% In March, the share of Americans who Not Likely said they were likely to purchase or 92% lease a new vehicle in the next six months was 8%.25% Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time20% Likely 3 month SMA15%10%5%0% May-11 May-10 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-12 Dec-10 Dec-11 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Feb-11 Feb-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 Nov-10 Nov-11 Jun-10 Jun-11TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 17
  18. 18. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame March 2012 Base = Potential Customers100% Not Sure Within 190% 1% Month80% 9% Between 470% & 6 Months60% 61%50%40% Between 230% & 3 Months 29%20% This month, 9% of likely vehicle buyers say they10% will purchase or lease a new vehicle within one month, while 29% say they will do so within 2 0% to 3 months, while most (61%) are planning to S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 do so further out (within 4 to 6 months). Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure In March, the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one month decreased to 9%. Q. Will you make your purchase within the next 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 18
  19. 19. Vehicle Type MomentumMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers 12 Month Average 6 Month Average Negative Change No Change Positive Change 31% 29% 13% 13% 14% 12% 11% 10% 11% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% Mid-size Small SUV Minivan Large SUV Sub-compact or Full-size Pickup Compact MiniQ. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 19
  20. 20. Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMA Base = Potential Customers Subcompact/Mini Compact40% 40%30% 30% 19% 20% 14%20% 14% 12% 10% 9% 11% 8% 8% 8% 7% 10%10% 4% 4% 2% 0%0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Mid-Sized Full-Sized40% 34% 40% 33% 32% 31% 29% 35% 25%30% 30%20% 20% 14% 15% 13% 7% 9% 9%10% 10% 6% 0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 20
  21. 21. Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA Pickup Truck Base = Potential Customers Minivan30% 30%20% 20% 12% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 11% 9% 10% 11% 9% 9%10% 10% 4% 4%0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Small SUV Large SUV30% 30%20% 20% 14% 11% 12% 11% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8%10% 10% 6% 6%0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 21
  22. 22. IV. Brand Preferences A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy B. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
  23. 23. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodayMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers 12 Month Average 6 Month Average19% 18% 14% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda GMC Nissan Chrysler Hyundai Dodge SubaruTechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 23
  24. 24. By Vehicle Origin March 2012 Base = All Respondents100%90% Likely to Purchase by Make80% 6 Month Average 12 Month Average70%60%50%40% 42% 43%30% 31% 31%20%10% 6% 5% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 American Asian European European Asian American Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 24
  25. 25. Luxury vs. Non-LuxuryMarch 2012 Base = All Respondents 6 Month Average100% Not90% Sure 11% Non-80% Luxury70% 79%60% Luxury 10%50%40%30% 12 Month Average20% Not Sure10% Non- 11% 0% Luxury S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 78% Luxury Non-Luxury Luxury 11%Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 25
  26. 26. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands) Base = Potential Customers Ford Toyota30% 30% 21% 18% 18% 19% 17%20% 15% 20% 13% 10% 10% 11% 12% 9% 9% 8%10% 10%0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Chevrolet Honda30% 30%20% 14% 16% 20% 15% 11% 14% 13% 12% 10% 10% 9%10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 6% 0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 26
  27. 27. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5-8) Base = Potential Customers GMC Dodge30% 30%20% 20%10% 4% 6% 6% 7% 10% 5% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 Nissan Chrysler30% 30%20% 20% 9%10% 6% 10% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1%0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 27
  28. 28. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-10) Base = Potential Customers Hyundai Subaru30% 30%20% 20%10% 3% 10% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%0% 0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 28
  29. 29. Conclusions The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers face today. Only 8% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, down from 16% in February. Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles of the already vulnerable auto industry. Further, a sharp slump has immense potential to affect the economy and employment significantly. Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a slowdown. Auto factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to have too many cars in inventory. The same holds true for car dealers, who must finance the unsold cars in their inventory. A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, our preferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way to make America’s gas pains disappear.TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 29
  30. 30. Contact InformationTo request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us. Contact: Raghavan Mayur Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001 Ramsey, NJ 07446 Phone: 800-328-TECH (8324) 201-986-1288 Fax: 201-986-0119 Email: mayur@technometrica.com Web: www.technometrica.comTechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 30

×