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Innovation Radar: How to track down future developments? (Popper, 2012)

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Innovation Radar: How to track down future developments? (Popper, 2012)

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5TH INNOVATION SUMMIT (02/09/2012)

The EU Commission awarded economist Dr. Rafael Popper from the University of Manchester a research grant to find out how to track down the signs of future developments. Developments which remain undetected on political radar yet are going to have implications for our future. What emerged are recommendations for research projects which are supposed to be funded by the EU Commission. And an internet platform that could perhaps be termed a kind of “Research Wikipedia”. People all over the world exchange signals and ideas for the future via a new platform. Just like they do via Twitter etc. nowadays.

Transcript

  1. 1. Innovation Radar How to track down future developments? www.iknowfutures.eu
  2. 2. strategies 1st message There are many “futures” around us…
  3. 3. Innovation Systems  Our Mapping Foresight work has produced a > 1000 Mapping vast amount of futures-related information cases mapped Foresight unprecedented in the world > 2000 Identified Key Lessons  Our Mapping Foresight activities have been + useful to understand foresight practices Findings in Europe and other world regions 846 cases mapped Mapping > 1600 Foresight identified & Forecasting 767 Introducing cases mapped Wild Cards & > 1400 Introducing Weak Signals identified networking (WI-WE) (SNA) and systems 437 systemic + cases mapped analyses Web 2.0 scanning > 800 into + identified Foresight 100 Bottom-up cases mapped Evaluation (Foresight Ark) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012
  4. 4. 2nd message There are many ways of shaping our future…
  5. 5. NEW Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process Management Framework
  6. 6. 3 4 5 1 2
  7. 7. 3rd message We have some tools to track down future developments…
  8. 8. NEW Methodology Toolkit 44 methodology toolkit
  9. 9. So, how to track down futures developments?
  10. 10. South McArthur's Germany Universal is here! Corrective Map of the North World
  11. 11. S = Situation-bounded (time & context) What EMERGING / NEW issues WE WI Interpretation & Sense-making S4 may shape our future? issues WI What RE-EMERGING issues assessment level of uncertainty WE S3 may shape our future? issues WI WE What issues may STOP S2 shaping the future? issues WI What issues may CONTINUE WE shaping the future? S1 issues past today future
  12. 12. Top-Down Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning Outward-Looking Inward-Looking Strategy 1 Strategy 2 ILTD OLTD YOUR AREA OF CONCERN Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 Strategy 4 ILBU OLBU Bottom-Up
  13. 13. iKnow’s participatory HS approaches 1,700+ players 3 4 5 1 2
  14. 14. So far… 969 files for unregistered users vs. 1061 files for iKnow members
  15. 15. New iKnowFuturesproposal submitted to the EC 1700+ members in 80 countries By 9.2.2012 Since Feb 2011
  16. 16. The iScanis an advanced strategic intelligence, foresight and horizon scanning search engine. A kind of “Issues Google”
  17. 17. 1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes, FRASCATI, NACE sectors and Grand Challenges
  18. 18. Mapping Wild Cards Mapping Weak Signals Nomination Nomination 1. source 1. source 2. theme 2. theme 3. sub-theme 3. sub-theme 4. references 4. references 5. short name / headline 5. short name / headline 6. Abstract 6. abstract likelihood Description 18 7. Description 1. manifestation 1. typology 2. potential implications 2. importance 3. importance Analysis Analysis early indicators 1. filters criteria 1. 2. main drivers 2. main drivers 3. risks & opportunities 3. risks & opportunities 4. stakeholders’ actions 4. stakeholders’ actions Interconnection Interconnection 1. Grand Challenges 1. Grand Challenges 2. thematic relevance 2. thematic relevance 3. ERA relevance 3. ERA relevance 4. research-friendly strategies 4. research-friendly strategies 5. RTD & STI policy relevance 5. RTD & STI policy relevance
  19. 19. Delphi results on September 2011 60 60 900+ ISSUES. Key facts 4000+ assessments to and figures 60 Wild Cards 700+ respondents 2500+ assessments to 60 Weak Signals
  20. 20. Wild Cards Delphi Wild Cards headline navigation panel Comments & full preview Description & Desirability Issue Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU assessment 1- Physical infrastructure Potential 2 - Virtual infrastructure impacts on 3 - Social welfare (in Your Country 4 - Economy platform & the EU) Preparedness 5 - Security 6 - Policy & governance 7 - Environment & ecosystems (iDelphi) ERA relevance 8 - STI systems Policy advice Current signals indicating WI plausibility Future signals indicating WI plausibility Wild Cards headline navigation panel Analysis & Submission panels
  21. 21. CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change CAP Administration rather than results a priority SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security NUC Development of new materials Weak ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world Signals SPA Privatisation of space flights NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace 40% SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade" NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating match CAP CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars Administration rather than results a priority Top 10 SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security Weak ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform Signals ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world for ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGR Bees be no more, less food than before UK ENV ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles HEA Increasing Self-Medication
  22. 22. Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfare Economy Security Policy & governance Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems Suicide bombing in Stockholm Sec Pol SoW 100% Ph-I Env 75% Sec 50% No strict global rules Growing privatisation Sec Pol Eco on nuclear security 25% of war 0% Scientists predict Nuclear power plants mobile phone viruses Sec STI Vi-I Eco Sec built in third world Eco will become a serious countries threat
  23. 23. 5 National Studies 66 Expert Interviews 44 Policy Alerts
  24. 24. From farmer to consumer: Diversifying crop production and consumption. Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat) makes food production and consumption vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new wheat disease to develop it could have severe implications for food markets worldwide, which could have unforeseen consequences such as starvation, civil unrest and high food prices. There is a need to prepare for diversifying food production and consumption in order to avoid such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted in order to better diversify their crops and consumers should be made aware of a greater variety of food products…
  25. 25. New Horizon Scanning System delivering products & services which meet the needs of senior leaders and workforce planners in health & social care in the UK Research Technology Development Networked Innovation
  26. 26. Visioning Planning Horizon Scanning Workforce Analysis I • Key trends and dynamics • Robust analysis T • Feed in to the scenario • Sustainable, affordable generation iB iS S O Future iD iO L U Realisation Scenario Generation Workforce Modelling T • Desired & possible • futures Numbers, trends, uncertai I • Delphi to refine nty O assumptions • Suite of demand models N • Weak signals • Sensitivity analysis S Customised Products & Services
  27. 27. Two Final Remarks  We hope the EC will support our iKnowFuturesproposal  2.5 Million Euro  Focused on Grand Responses to Grand Societal Challenges  17 partners in 11 countries ▪ UK, FR, GE, AT, CZ, SP, NL, CH, IL, RU, BR  Meantime, we will continue providing customised solutions to players willing to track down developments shaping their own futures…
  28. 28. [click on the images]

Description

5TH INNOVATION SUMMIT (02/09/2012)

The EU Commission awarded economist Dr. Rafael Popper from the University of Manchester a research grant to find out how to track down the signs of future developments. Developments which remain undetected on political radar yet are going to have implications for our future. What emerged are recommendations for research projects which are supposed to be funded by the EU Commission. And an internet platform that could perhaps be termed a kind of “Research Wikipedia”. People all over the world exchange signals and ideas for the future via a new platform. Just like they do via Twitter etc. nowadays.

Transcript

  1. 1. Innovation Radar How to track down future developments? www.iknowfutures.eu
  2. 2. strategies 1st message There are many “futures” around us…
  3. 3. Innovation Systems  Our Mapping Foresight work has produced a > 1000 Mapping vast amount of futures-related information cases mapped Foresight unprecedented in the world > 2000 Identified Key Lessons  Our Mapping Foresight activities have been + useful to understand foresight practices Findings in Europe and other world regions 846 cases mapped Mapping > 1600 Foresight identified & Forecasting 767 Introducing cases mapped Wild Cards & > 1400 Introducing Weak Signals identified networking (WI-WE) (SNA) and systems 437 systemic + cases mapped analyses Web 2.0 scanning > 800 into + identified Foresight 100 Bottom-up cases mapped Evaluation (Foresight Ark) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012
  4. 4. 2nd message There are many ways of shaping our future…
  5. 5. NEW Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process Management Framework
  6. 6. 3 4 5 1 2
  7. 7. 3rd message We have some tools to track down future developments…
  8. 8. NEW Methodology Toolkit 44 methodology toolkit
  9. 9. So, how to track down futures developments?
  10. 10. South McArthur's Germany Universal is here! Corrective Map of the North World
  11. 11. S = Situation-bounded (time & context) What EMERGING / NEW issues WE WI Interpretation & Sense-making S4 may shape our future? issues WI What RE-EMERGING issues assessment level of uncertainty WE S3 may shape our future? issues WI WE What issues may STOP S2 shaping the future? issues WI What issues may CONTINUE WE shaping the future? S1 issues past today future
  12. 12. Top-Down Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning Outward-Looking Inward-Looking Strategy 1 Strategy 2 ILTD OLTD YOUR AREA OF CONCERN Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 Strategy 4 ILBU OLBU Bottom-Up
  13. 13. iKnow’s participatory HS approaches 1,700+ players 3 4 5 1 2
  14. 14. So far… 969 files for unregistered users vs. 1061 files for iKnow members
  15. 15. New iKnowFuturesproposal submitted to the EC 1700+ members in 80 countries By 9.2.2012 Since Feb 2011
  16. 16. The iScanis an advanced strategic intelligence, foresight and horizon scanning search engine. A kind of “Issues Google”
  17. 17. 1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes, FRASCATI, NACE sectors and Grand Challenges
  18. 18. Mapping Wild Cards Mapping Weak Signals Nomination Nomination 1. source 1. source 2. theme 2. theme 3. sub-theme 3. sub-theme 4. references 4. references 5. short name / headline 5. short name / headline 6. Abstract 6. abstract likelihood Description 18 7. Description 1. manifestation 1. typology 2. potential implications 2. importance 3. importance Analysis Analysis early indicators 1. filters criteria 1. 2. main drivers 2. main drivers 3. risks & opportunities 3. risks & opportunities 4. stakeholders’ actions 4. stakeholders’ actions Interconnection Interconnection 1. Grand Challenges 1. Grand Challenges 2. thematic relevance 2. thematic relevance 3. ERA relevance 3. ERA relevance 4. research-friendly strategies 4. research-friendly strategies 5. RTD & STI policy relevance 5. RTD & STI policy relevance
  19. 19. Delphi results on September 2011 60 60 900+ ISSUES. Key facts 4000+ assessments to and figures 60 Wild Cards 700+ respondents 2500+ assessments to 60 Weak Signals
  20. 20. Wild Cards Delphi Wild Cards headline navigation panel Comments & full preview Description & Desirability Issue Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU assessment 1- Physical infrastructure Potential 2 - Virtual infrastructure impacts on 3 - Social welfare (in Your Country 4 - Economy platform & the EU) Preparedness 5 - Security 6 - Policy & governance 7 - Environment & ecosystems (iDelphi) ERA relevance 8 - STI systems Policy advice Current signals indicating WI plausibility Future signals indicating WI plausibility Wild Cards headline navigation panel Analysis & Submission panels
  21. 21. CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change CAP Administration rather than results a priority SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security NUC Development of new materials Weak ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world Signals SPA Privatisation of space flights NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace 40% SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade" NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating match CAP CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars Administration rather than results a priority Top 10 SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security Weak ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform Signals ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world for ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGR Bees be no more, less food than before UK ENV ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles HEA Increasing Self-Medication
  22. 22. Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfare Economy Security Policy & governance Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems Suicide bombing in Stockholm Sec Pol SoW 100% Ph-I Env 75% Sec 50% No strict global rules Growing privatisation Sec Pol Eco on nuclear security 25% of war 0% Scientists predict Nuclear power plants mobile phone viruses Sec STI Vi-I Eco Sec built in third world Eco will become a serious countries threat
  23. 23. 5 National Studies 66 Expert Interviews 44 Policy Alerts
  24. 24. From farmer to consumer: Diversifying crop production and consumption. Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat) makes food production and consumption vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new wheat disease to develop it could have severe implications for food markets worldwide, which could have unforeseen consequences such as starvation, civil unrest and high food prices. There is a need to prepare for diversifying food production and consumption in order to avoid such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted in order to better diversify their crops and consumers should be made aware of a greater variety of food products…
  25. 25. New Horizon Scanning System delivering products & services which meet the needs of senior leaders and workforce planners in health & social care in the UK Research Technology Development Networked Innovation
  26. 26. Visioning Planning Horizon Scanning Workforce Analysis I • Key trends and dynamics • Robust analysis T • Feed in to the scenario • Sustainable, affordable generation iB iS S O Future iD iO L U Realisation Scenario Generation Workforce Modelling T • Desired & possible • futures Numbers, trends, uncertai I • Delphi to refine nty O assumptions • Suite of demand models N • Weak signals • Sensitivity analysis S Customised Products & Services
  27. 27. Two Final Remarks  We hope the EC will support our iKnowFuturesproposal  2.5 Million Euro  Focused on Grand Responses to Grand Societal Challenges  17 partners in 11 countries ▪ UK, FR, GE, AT, CZ, SP, NL, CH, IL, RU, BR  Meantime, we will continue providing customised solutions to players willing to track down developments shaping their own futures…
  28. 28. [click on the images]

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