agentsofchange1

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agentsofchange1

  1. 1. Agents of ChangeComputer simulations and empirical data<br />Andrzej Nowak<br />Florida Atlantic University<br />Warsaw University<br />
  2. 2. Bubble model of social change<br />Bubbles of NEW apprear in the sea of OLD and grow<br />Social influence underlies individual choices in social transitions<br />
  3. 3. individual in a social context<br />each individual affects and is affected by a social context<br />
  4. 4. How can we conceptualize social influence<br />A number of people <br />gathered in an auditorium<br />to vote on an issue<br />They can discuss their <br />opinions with others <br />before they vote<br />How will the discussion <br />change the outcome of <br />the vote? <br />
  5. 5. How social interactions change attitudes in a group<br />Imagine that 400 individuals are to vote whether to privatize their company<br />The individuals are sitting in a conference room. There are 20 rows of 20 seats in each row.<br />Each individual comes with an attitude concerning privatization<br />Individuals differ in strength: some are more persuasive than others<br />
  6. 6. Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeight of bars= strength<br />
  7. 7. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Dynamics <br />Chose an individual, check if this individual will change his/her opinion<br />Each individual adopts the opinion, that is prevalent among his/her neighbors <br />
  8. 8. The role of distance<br />Latane, Bonavento, Nowak, Liu<br />N<br />Probability of interaction decreases<br />with the square of the distance<br />Results general across cultures:<br />USA, China, Poland, scientists<br /><ul><li>Latane, B., Liu, J., Nowak., A., Bonavento, & M., Zheng, L (1995). Distance matters: Physical distance and social impact. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 21, 795-805</li></ul>Results confirmed in Internet communication study<br />Distance<br />
  9. 9. The role of leaders<br />Leaders<br />highly credible<br />strongly connected<br />
  10. 10. CommunityManagement<br />
  11. 11. Social influence<br />Influence is proportional to <br />Number of sources<br />Strength of sources<br />Distance between sources and the target<br />
  12. 12. Dynamics <br />Chose an individual, check if this individual will change his/her opinion<br />Each individual adopts the opinion, that is most prevalent among his/her neighbors <br />
  13. 13. Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeight of bars= strength<br />
  14. 14. Final attitudes as the result of social interaction<br />1. Number of individuals having minority opinion has decreased (polarization)<br />2. Clustered<br />Conclusion: Minority opinion can survive by forming clusters<br />
  15. 15. Clustering and polarization in social reality <br />Polarization <br /> attitude polarization in social groups<br />voting behavior<br />Clustering<br />language<br />religions <br />fashions<br />opinions<br />
  16. 16. Clustering in the choice of food<br />
  17. 17. Clustering in marketing <br />Prediction of campaign success (15/17)<br />Goldenberg<br />Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood; crosses on the roofs indicate air-conditioner purchase<br />
  18. 18. Generality of the model<br />Robust properties of the model<br />Critical factors for the emergence of polarization and clustering<br />local influence<br />non linearity of influence process<br />individual differences in the strength of persuasion<br />
  19. 19. Leader + followers<br />
  20. 20. Stronghold<br />
  21. 21. Wall<br />
  22. 22. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Structure of contacts<br />The effects of social influence depend on the structure of contacts betwen individuals <br />Opinion clusters follow communication patterns<br />
  23. 23. Social influence<br />Leads to clustering<br />Development of local pockets of coherent reality <br />belief systems<br /> local culture<br />critical role of leaders<br />
  24. 24. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Minority influence insocial change<br />
  25. 25. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />
  26. 26. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />
  27. 27. When minority has stronger influence than majority, social change may occur<br />For minority to be stronger it needs to <br />Have strong argumets <br />Be consistent among themselves and in time<br />Minority influence takes a different route than majority influence<br /> It is processed in a more rational way<br />Leads to private acceptance<br />Is delayed in time <br />
  28. 28. Simulating minority influence<br />Add a constant term to the influence of selected opinion<br />The minority grows as a “bubble of new in the sea of old”<br />The social change happens as these bubbles connect and the “old” becomes confined to islands<br />These islands are in fact strongholds<br />Double social reality during transitions<br />
  29. 29. Bias favors the minority<br />
  30. 30.
  31. 31. Bias withdrawn<br />Bias reversed<br />
  32. 32. Conclusion<br />Social transitions occus as „bubbles of new” in the „sea of old”<br />They resemble a process of nucleation in physics<br />During the transition two distinct, separated in space, internally coherent realities exist. <br />The transiton occurs as the island of new reality expand at the expence of the old reality<br />
  33. 33. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Practical advises for facilitating change<br />Concentrate on leaders and introduction of a local change<br />Identify leaders who are likely to adopt the new position<br />Form a social network connecting the leaders<br />Give a lot of outside support in the beginning, gradually withdraw the support as the group growth<br />Form a social network around the leaders<br />Form a social network connecting the group<br />Natural experiment (1600 participants) shows the effectiveness of the method<br />
  34. 34. Testing the theory<br />
  35. 35. Complex Systems Dynamics<br />The Polish reform<br />Balcerowicz plan introduced in 1990 transformed the economic system from ineffective central planning to a free market economy <br />
  36. 36. Number of enterprises per capita<br />1989<br />1990<br />
  37. 37. Number of enterprises per capita<br />1991<br />1992<br />
  38. 38. Education and economic growth<br />
  39. 39.
  40. 40. Double reality of social transitions:<br />Regions of “new” and “old”, political and economic data<br />Voting for pro-reformist<br />parties<br />Number of enterprises <br />per capita<br />
  41. 41. EU referendum 2002<br />
  42. 42. Dynamics of the economic transition<br />The critical importance of local processes <br />– A global model cannot explan the dynamics<br />The importance of the social factors in economic processes: education, culture, history, politics<br />Thisapproach allows us to connect complex macroscopic collective trends to their simple local causes.<br />Nowak A. Vallacher R.R., Kus, M., Urbaniak, J., (2005) The Dynamics of Societal Transition: Modeling Non-Linear Change in the Polish Economic System, International Journal of Sociology.<br />Nowak, A, Kus, M. Urbaniak J, Zarycki T. (2002) Simulating the coordination of individual economic decisions. Physica A, 297, 613-630<br />Yarri., G., Nowak A., Rakocy, K., Solomon S., (2008) Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth European Physics Journal B, 62, 4<br />
  43. 43. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, which alerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse the situation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoon riots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuye immediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the states they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of the cartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appeal for calm.<br />To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafa set up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders and community heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback. Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international donor, government, and religious organizations. <br />
  44. 44. How to build social capital?<br />Sequence of actions where the next action builds on the previous one<br />Each action increases the level of trust among the local society, willingness for cooperation and the belief in success<br />
  45. 45. Social change in Chmielnik (analysis by Praszkier)<br />Local telephone<br /> network<br />Telekardiomat<br />Change of attitudes<br />Misantrophy<br />to<br />Trust and cooperation<br />Farmers<br />Chmielnik Zdrój<br />Mineral water<br />Swichboard at the telephone system<br />Schools<br />Sewage <br />treatment<br />Growth of <br />Social capital <br />Kazimierz <br />Jaworski<br />Chmielnik<br />Local <br />goverment<br />200  900<br />Enterprises <br />Increase in <br />Entreprenourship<br />and social <br />involvement<br />Businessman<br />Teaching<br /> languages<br /> and IT <br />Economic <br />growth<br />Direct sales of <br />farmers <br />products<br />Firms<br />high-tech<br />Young people conduct a court case against alcoholism<br />
  46. 46.
  47. 47. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Dagmeara Bienkowska: Zegocin: cookbook<br />Failure of previous attmpts of change dissintegtration<br />Dorota Komornicka: Śnieżnik: very small local funds invested in financing children projects, exhibitions, education <br />
  48. 48. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Pastor James Wuye & Imam Mohammed Ashafa, Nigeria <br />Deeply ingrained, intractable religious conflict, full of hate and eagerness to shed blood. Multiple lurking and conspicuous conflicts, including burning mosques, churches, killing, exiling, etc. <br />Result: multiple conflicts over power and control, decreasing the region’s ability to develop. <br />
  49. 49. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Dimenensions of conflict<br />Conflict around the religious issues: unstructured, existing, and direct<br />Conflict around building peace through education: unstructured, potential, and approached in a direct way (organizing Christian/Muslim camps, influencing the schools’ curriculum) <br />
  50. 50. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Solution<br />Pastor James Wuye, a Christian priest, and Imam Mohammed Ashafa, a Muslim cleric, are bringing peace and peace-building education to Nigeria. <br />In the past, they were members of militant youth groups, chasing, hating, and harming each other (e.g., James Wuye lost his arm in a clash with Mohammed Ashafa’s group). At some point, in a moment of mutual enlightenment, they understood that operating together they could bring peace and understanding between their respective religions.<br />They are now using the power of their faith and the example of interfaith cooperation to prevent and intervene in religious and politically motivated conflicts in Nigeria, and especially to educate youth in building avenues to peaceful cooperation. Through TV programs and a portfolio of educational projects, they are changing the model of reacting to any stimulus with violence into a model of dialogue and understanding. <br />
  51. 51. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />Results<br />Their other early-warning techniques include “deprogramming” of violent youth through Christian and Islamic instruction, which teaches forgiveness and nonviolence. They also help communities identify and use traditionally accepted peace-building methods that may have been forgotten or abandoned.<br />To ensure that their ideas are passed on to the next generation, they have set up peace clubs in pre-school, primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions. Each child who goes through the training is encouraged to plant a tree to symbolize their commitment to building, and not destroying, their communities. They have also developed a peace-education curriculum, which is used in schools and by other organizations interested in peace-building, as well as the “Ethical Code for Religious Instructions in Schools.”<br />
  52. 52. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.<br />As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, which alerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse the situation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoon riots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuye immediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the states they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of the cartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appeal for calm.<br />To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafa set up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders and community heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback. Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international donor, government, and religious organizations. <br />
  53. 53. Questions?<br />

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