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Global Sensitivity Analysis for
Impact Assessments
Matthew Aiello-Lammens
H. Resit Akçakaya
Stony Brook University
Ecologi...
Integration of Sea-Level Rise model
(SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis
(RAMAS GIS)
•Land cover
•Geology
•Local accr...
Integration of Sea-Level Rise model
(SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis
(RAMAS GIS)
•Land cover
•Geology
•Local accr...
Results
1.1

Relative value to 2010

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

0.4
0.3
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

206...
Results
1.1

Relative value to 2010

1
0.9
0.8
0.7

∆ Carrying Capacity

0.6
0.5

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

0.4
0.3
2010

2020
...
Results
1.1

Relative value to 2010

1
0.9
0.8
0.7

∆ Carrying Capacity

0.6
0.5

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

0.4
0.3
2010

N (2m...
2m SLR

1m SLR

No SLR

Expected Minimum
Abundance
Extinction

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2m SLR

1m SLR

No SLR

2m SLR

1m SL...
Patterns?
Patterns?

Adult Males

0.6
0.4
0.2

Juveniles

0.0

Adult Females

Risk of Decline

0.8

1.0

Processes?
Proces...
Patterns?
Patterns?

Adult Males

0.6
0.4
0.2

Juveniles

0.0

Adult Females

Risk of Decline

0.8

1.0

Processes?
Proces...
Risk-Max - Risk-Min Parameter Value
-0.2

-0.4

-1
Survival, Juvenile

Rmax - Contest DD

Initial Abundance

Correlation

...
Sensitivity Analysis
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Best Estimates

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainty

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainty

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival
Fecundity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival
Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Uncertain Population and
Vital Rate Parameters
1. Adult Survival
2. Variabilit...
Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition
Number Comparisons:

•
•
•
•
•

100
250
500
1000
10000
Relative Influence of Parameters - 10k Simulations
Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition
Number Comparisons:

•
•
•
•
•

100
250
500
1000
10000
Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition
Number Comparisons:

•
•
•
•
•

100 (100 sets)
250 (40...
Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Parameter

Fecundity
Adult Survial
Variability of Adult
Survival
Variability o...
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100
53

71

83

87

● ●● ●
● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●
●● ● ●●
●● ● ● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
...
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100
53

71

83

87

● ●● ●
● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●
●● ● ●●
●● ● ● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
...
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable
Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
100

1.00

250

snpl...
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable
Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
100

1.00

250

snpl...
Sensitivity Analysis
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
2010

2060

Year
2m SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity

Relative value to 2010

Relative va...
Sensitivity Analysis
Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment
1.1

Relative value to 2010

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

N (No SL...
Sensitivity Analysis
Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment
1.1

Relative value to 2010

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
2...
Density

Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Probability of Decline to 50

0.8
Density

Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Probability of Decline to 50

0.8
Density

Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Probability of Decline to 50

0.8
Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50

Density

Unpaired Bootstrap

-0.5

0.0

0.5

∆ Probability of Decline to 50

1....
Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50
Unpaired Bootstrap

Density

Mean Difference = 0.074

-0.5

0.0

0.5

∆ Probabil...
Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50

Density

Paired Simulations

-0.5

0.0

0.5

∆ Probability of Decline to 50
Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50

Unif

Frequency

LHS

Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR...
Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50

Unif

Frequency

LHS

Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR...
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable
Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
100

1.00

250

snpl...
Current Implementations

Glossy Buckthorn Invasive
Effects of land-use change
Density dependence
models

Passenger Pigeon ...
Acknowledgements:
HR Akcakaya, J Stanton, A Cahill, G Sorrentino, H Ryu, E Kneip,
K Shoemaker, M Aldred, S Sabatino, SERDP...
Aiello-Lammens:  Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments.
Aiello-Lammens:  Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments.
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Aiello-Lammens: Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments.

  1. 1. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments Matthew Aiello-Lammens H. Resit Akçakaya Stony Brook University Ecological Society of America 2013
  2. 2. Integration of Sea-Level Rise model (SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis (RAMAS GIS) •Land cover •Geology •Local accretion and erosion rates •SLR / climate change scenario Current species distribution Sea-level Rise Model (SLAMM) Population size through time Land cover change through time Demographic Model (RAMAS GIS) Current demographic data Habitat Suitability Model (MaxEnt) Habitat suitability through time
  3. 3. Integration of Sea-Level Rise model (SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis (RAMAS GIS) •Land cover •Geology •Local accretion and erosion rates •SLR / climate change scenario Current species distribution Sea-level Rise Model (SLAMM) Extinction risk Population viability analysis Land cover change through time Demographic Model (RAMAS GIS) Current demographic data Habitat Suitability Model (MaxEnt) Habitat suitability through time
  4. 4. Results 1.1 Relative value to 2010 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 N (No SLR; Ceiling) 0.4 0.3 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100
  5. 5. Results 1.1 Relative value to 2010 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 ∆ Carrying Capacity 0.6 0.5 N (No SLR; Ceiling) 0.4 0.3 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100
  6. 6. Results 1.1 Relative value to 2010 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 ∆ Carrying Capacity 0.6 0.5 N (No SLR; Ceiling) 0.4 0.3 2010 N (2m SLR; Ceiling) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100
  7. 7. 2m SLR 1m SLR No SLR Expected Minimum Abundance Extinction 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2m SLR 1m SLR No SLR 2m SLR 1m SLR No SLR Risk 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Results Decline to 20
  8. 8. Patterns? Patterns? Adult Males 0.6 0.4 0.2 Juveniles 0.0 Adult Females Risk of Decline 0.8 1.0 Processes? Processes? 0 200 400 Abundance Risk 600 800
  9. 9. Patterns? Patterns? Adult Males 0.6 0.4 0.2 Juveniles 0.0 Adult Females Risk of Decline 0.8 1.0 Processes? Processes? 0 200 400 Abundance 600 Uncertainty 800
  10. 10. Risk-Max - Risk-Min Parameter Value -0.2 -0.4 -1 Survival, Juvenile Rmax - Contest DD Initial Abundance Correlation StdDev - Surv, Juvenile Dispersal Carrying Capacity StdDev - Fecundity StdDev - Survival, Adult -0.8 Survival, Adult -0.6 Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Δ Risk Extiction Δ Risk to N=20
  11. 11. Sensitivity Analysis
  12. 12. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Adult Survival
  13. 13. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Best Estimates Adult Survival
  14. 14. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Uncertainty Adult Survival
  15. 15. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Uncertainty Adult Survival
  16. 16. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Adult Survival
  17. 17. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Adult Survival
  18. 18. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Adult Survival
  19. 19. Fecundity Sensitivity Analysis Adult Survival
  20. 20. Sensitivity Analysis Snowy Plover Revisited Uncertain Population and Vital Rate Parameters 1. Adult Survival 2. Variability of Adult Survival 3. Fecundity (Juvenile Survival and Maternity) 4. Variability of Fecundity 5. Dispersal 6. Spatial Correlation 7. Carrying Capacity 8. Initial Abundance
  21. 21. Sensitivity Analysis Snowy Plover Revisited Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons: • • • • • 100 250 500 1000 10000
  22. 22. Relative Influence of Parameters - 10k Simulations
  23. 23. Sensitivity Analysis Snowy Plover Revisited Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons: • • • • • 100 250 500 1000 10000
  24. 24. Sensitivity Analysis Snowy Plover Revisited Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons: • • • • • 100 (100 sets) 250 (40 sets) 500 (20 sets) 1000 (10 sets) 10000
  25. 25. Sensitivity Analysis Snowy Plover Revisited Parameter Fecundity Adult Survial Variability of Adult Survival Variability of Fecundity Carrying Capacity Spatial Correlation Dispersal Initial Abundance Relative Influence Values as Determined by BRT Analysis Sample Size 10k 76.859 20.960 Sample Size 100 79.028 13.861 1.499 2.945 0.441 0.698 0.184 0.025 0.019 0.013 0.628 0.700 0.827 1.312
  26. 26. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100 53 71 83 87 ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● 0.35 fecund Fecundity 0.34 0.33 ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.35 ● ● ● 0.34 ● ● ● ● ●● ● 0.33 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 ● ● ● ●● 95 ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 72 0.68 0.69 0.70 91 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● 84 88 92 96 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Unif 38 ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Unif 30 ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● LHS 29 ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● LHS 10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ad.surv Adult Survival 2 10 31 39 54 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 15 LHS 10 count 5 0 15 Unif 10 5 0 near.neighbor
  27. 27. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100 53 71 83 87 ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● 0.35 fecund Fecundity 0.34 0.33 ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.35 ● ● ● 0.34 ● ● ● ● ●● ● 0.33 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 ● ● ● ●● 95 ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.70 72 0.68 0.69 0.70 91 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● 84 88 92 96 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● 0.68 0.69 0.70 ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Unif 38 ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Unif 30 ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● LHS 29 ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● LHS 10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ad.surv Adult Survival 2 10 31 39 54 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 15 LHS LHS 10 count Frequency 5 0 15 Unif Unif 10 5 0 near.neighbor Nearest Neighbor Distance
  28. 28. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K 100 1.00 250 snpl.100.SA2 1.0 Correlation Value snpl.1000.SA2 ● ● ● ● ● ● No SLR 2m ● ● ● ● 1000 snpl.500.SA2 ● ● 0.95 500 snpl.250.SA2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.90 ● ● ● 0.85 0.85 ● 1.00 1.0 cor.val ● ● ● 0.90 ● ● ● ● 2mnocc SLR 0.95 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.85 0.85 ● 1.0 LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif unif lhs unif 0.5 −0.5 relEnds 0.0 ● ● ● lhs unif lhs unif lhs samp
  29. 29. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K 100 1.00 250 snpl.100.SA2 1.0 Correlation Value snpl.1000.SA2 ● ● ● ● ● ● No SLR 2m ● ● ● ● 1000 snpl.500.SA2 ● ● 0.95 500 snpl.250.SA2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.90 ● ● ● 0.85 0.85 ● 1.00 1.0 cor.val ● ● ● 0.90 ● ● ● ● 2mnocc SLR 0.95 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.85 0.85 ● 1.0 LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif unif lhs unif 0.5 −0.5 relEnds 0.0 ● ● ● lhs unif lhs unif lhs samp
  30. 30. Sensitivity Analysis 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 2010 2060 Year 2m SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity Relative value to 2010 Relative value to 2010 Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 2010 2060 Year No SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity
  31. 31. Sensitivity Analysis Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment 1.1 Relative value to 2010 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 N (No SLR; Ceiling) 0.4 0.3 2010 N (2m SLR; Ceiling) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100
  32. 32. Sensitivity Analysis Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment 1.1 Relative value to 2010 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 2010 ∆N Due to 2m SLR 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100
  33. 33. Density Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Probability of Decline to 50 0.8
  34. 34. Density Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Probability of Decline to 50 0.8
  35. 35. Density Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Probability of Decline to 50 0.8
  36. 36. Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Density Unpaired Bootstrap -0.5 0.0 0.5 ∆ Probability of Decline to 50 1.0
  37. 37. Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Unpaired Bootstrap Density Mean Difference = 0.074 -0.5 0.0 0.5 ∆ Probability of Decline to 50 1.0
  38. 38. Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Density Paired Simulations -0.5 0.0 0.5 ∆ Probability of Decline to 50
  39. 39. Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50 Unif Frequency LHS Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR Unif Frequency LHS Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR
  40. 40. Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50 Unif Frequency LHS Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR Unif Frequency LHS ∆ Probability of Decline to 50 (Result of 2m SLR)
  41. 41. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K 100 1.00 250 snpl.100.SA2 1.0 Correlation Value snpl.1000.SA2 ● ● ● ● ● ● No SLR 2m ● ● ● ● 1000 snpl.500.SA2 ● ● 0.95 500 snpl.250.SA2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.90 ● ● ● 0.85 0.85 ● 1.00 1.0 ● ● ● 0.90 ● ● ● ● 2mnocc SLR 0.95 cor.val ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.85 0.85 ● 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 −0.5 Paired relEnds 0.5 ● ● ● lhs LHS unif Unif lhs LHS unif Unif lhs samp LHS unif Unif lhs LHS unif Unif
  42. 42. Current Implementations Glossy Buckthorn Invasive Effects of land-use change Density dependence models Passenger Pigeon – Extinctions Effects of land-use change Impact of harvest / hunting NA Herps – Impacts of Climate Change Effects of climate change scenarios
  43. 43. Acknowledgements: HR Akcakaya, J Stanton, A Cahill, G Sorrentino, H Ryu, E Kneip, K Shoemaker, M Aldred, S Sabatino, SERDP Collaborators Funding: SERDP and NASA

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