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Chapter 7: Patterns of Armed Conflict,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Force,[object Object],Coercive Diplomacy: The use of violence or the threat of violence to achieve a political goal.,[object Object],2,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],General Trends,[object Object],Civil war vs. Interstate war,[object Object],Realists: war is an instrument for international actors to use to resolve their conflicts ,[object Object],Proportion of countries engaged in wars has declined; mostly internal wars,[object Object],Fewer, but more deadly, armed conflicts ,[object Object],Most wars occur in the Global South,[object Object],War is no longer fought to gain foreign territory,[object Object],War between great powers is becoming obsolete,[object Object],“Long peace”,[object Object],3,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],A Perspective on Armed Conflicts,[object Object],4,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],The Causes of Civil Wars,[object Object],Ethnic groups,[object Object],Internal battles,[object Object],Religious conflicts,[object Object],“Failed states”,[object Object],Impoverished states ,[object Object],5,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],The Characteristics of Failing States,[object Object],Poverty,[object Object],Rule by corrupt governments,[object Object],Lack of democracy,[object Object],Poor democracies,[object Object],Population pressures,[object Object],Governments that fail to protect human rights,[object Object],Petrostates,[object Object],Lack of trade openness,[object Object],Large numbers of underemployed youths,[object Object],6,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],The Threat of Failed States,[object Object],7,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],The International Dimensions of Internal War ,[object Object],Great powers ,[object Object],Diversionary theory of war ,[object Object],Civil wars can become internationalized through,[object Object],The tendency for them to incite external intervention,[object Object],The propensity for leaders of governments that are failing to wage wars abroad in order to try and control rebellion at home ,[object Object],8,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Insurgency, Guerilla Warfare, and Counterinsurgency,[object Object],The focus is not on defeating the enemy on the field of battle, but on raising the costs of conflict so that it is higher than any possible benefit to the attacker.,[object Object],9,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Terrorism,[object Object],Asymmetric warfare: The use of violence (or the threat of it) by non-governmental actors in an effort to change government policies by creating fear of further violence. ,[object Object],10,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Causes of Terrorism,[object Object],Rational Choice Explanation ,[object Object],Poverty,[object Object],Religion ,[object Object],Islam and Terrorism ,[object Object],11,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Who Becomes a Terrorist?,[object Object],Profiling terrorists ,[object Object],Group dynamics and terrorism ,[object Object],12,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],New Global Terrorism,[object Object],Nonhierarchical,[object Object],Use of technology,[object Object],Religious fanaticism,[object Object],Goal is to kill as many people as possible,[object Object],Fear of them acquiring WMDs,[object Object],13,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],The Number of Terrorist Incidents and the Rising Number of Casualties Since the Late 1960s,[object Object],14,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Counterterrorism ,[object Object],Repression,[object Object],Conciliation,[object Object],Bush Doctrine,[object Object],State-sponsored terrorism,[object Object],Terrorism harder to fight today,[object Object],15,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],War: First Level of Analysis (1 of 2),[object Object],Relationship between human nature and aggression,[object Object],Humans one of few species to practice intraspecific aggression,[object Object],Realists assume drive for power and aggression is innate,[object Object],Most social scientists disagree,[object Object],16,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],First Level of Analysis (2 of 2),[object Object],Nature versus nurture debate,[object Object],Aggression through socialization rather than instinct?,[object Object],Territorial imperative as cause of war,[object Object],National character: drives certain nationalities to aggression,[object Object],Rational choice versus groupthink ,[object Object],17,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],War: Second Level of Analysis (1 of 2),[object Object],States’ internal characteristics,[object Object],Duration of independence,[object Object],Cultural determinants of specific states,[object Object],Feminist theories: masculine ethos of realism,[object Object],Cultural conditioning,[object Object],18,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Second Level of Analysis (2 of 2),[object Object],Poverty,[object Object],State location relative to other states,[object Object],Demographic stress,[object Object],Militarization,[object Object],Economic system: communism v. capitalism,[object Object],Government system: democracies don’t fight each other,[object Object],Nationalism,[object Object],19,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Demographic Stress and the Likelihood of Civil War,[object Object],20,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],War: Third Level of Analysis (1 of 2),[object Object],Global characteristics engender war,[object Object],Realism: anarchy  self-help,[object Object],Security dilemma,[object Object],Bargaining model of war,[object Object],Power transition theory: structural realism,[object Object],Long-cycle theory: dethroning hegemons,[object Object],War weariness hypothesis,[object Object],21,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],The Long Cycle Theory of Global Leadership and Global War,[object Object],22,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Web Links (1 of 2),[object Object],Incore,[object Object],Institute for War and Peace Reporting ,[object Object],International Crisis Group,[object Object],War, Peace, Security Guide,[object Object],Arms Sales Monitoring Project,[object Object],23,[object Object]
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning,[object Object],Web Links (2 of 2),[object Object],Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,[object Object],The Henry L. Stimson Center,[object Object],SIPRI Military Expenditure Country Graphs,[object Object],24,[object Object]

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Kegley chapter 7

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Editor's Notes

  1. Examples of wars involving ethnic groups seeking grater autonomy include the Kurds in Turkey and the Chechens in Russia.Ongoing conflicts in the Darfur region of Sudan are characterized by many as state-sponsored terrorism.
  2. The number and severity of failed states is expected to grow in the 21st century. The countries whose governments are most in danger of failing include Somalia, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Chad, Dem. Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Central Africa Republic, Guinea and Pakistan.
  3. Terrorism is not a modern tactic, but was perhaps first recorded as a number of assassinations conducted by the Sicarii in Judea during the first century BCE.
  4. Establishment violence, such as that of the Gestapo in Nazi Germany, is a form of terrorism used to sustain an existing political regime.
  5. Cyberterrorism: use of the Internet to recruit terrorists and coordinate attacks; also the use of viruses and other informational technology to disable financial and government institutions.
  6. The U.S. accused Iraq of state-sponsored terrorism (during the administration of Saddam Hussein) and continues to accuse the governments of Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria. Governments cannot agree on the bet method to control global terrorism, and the U.S. approach under the Bush administration was extensively criticized by many other nations.
  7. Both Sweden and Switzerland have managed conflicts without war since the early 19th century.
  8. Large numbers of unemployed youth concentrated in large cities and a lack of sustainable growth increase the odds of civil war.
  9. Long-cycle theory holds that a new global power emerges every 80 to 100 years.
  10. What hegemon is most likely to take the United States place as this global leadership cycle ends?