Chapter 7: Patterns of Armed Conflict<br />
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Force<br />Coercive Diplomacy: The use of violence or the threat of violence to achie...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />General Trends<br />Civil war vs. Interstate war<br />Realists: war is an instrument ...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />A Perspective on Armed Conflicts<br />4<br />
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Causes of Civil Wars<br />Ethnic groups<br />Internal battles<br />Religious conf...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Characteristics of Failing States<br />Poverty<br />Rule by corrupt governments<b...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Threat of Failed States<br />7<br />
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The International Dimensions of Internal War <br />Great powers <br />Diversionary th...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Insurgency, Guerilla Warfare, and Counterinsurgency<br />The focus is not on defeatin...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Terrorism<br />Asymmetric warfare: The use of violence (or the threat of it) by non-g...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Causes of Terrorism<br />Rational Choice Explanation <br />Poverty<br />Religion <br ...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Who Becomes a Terrorist?<br />Profiling terrorists <br />Group dynamics and terrorism...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />New Global Terrorism<br />Nonhierarchical<br />Use of technology<br />Religious fanat...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Number of Terrorist Incidents and the Rising Number of Casualties Since the Late ...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Counterterrorism <br />Repression<br />Conciliation<br />Bush Doctrine<br />State-spo...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />War: First Level of Analysis (1 of 2)<br />Relationship between human nature and aggr...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />First Level of Analysis (2 of 2)<br />Nature versus nurture debate<br />Aggression th...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />War: Second Level of Analysis (1 of 2)<br />States’ internal characteristics<br />Dur...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Second Level of Analysis (2 of 2)<br />Poverty<br />State location relative to other ...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Demographic Stress and the Likelihood of Civil War<br />20<br />
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />War: Third Level of Analysis (1 of 2)<br />Global characteristics engender war<br />R...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Long Cycle Theory of Global Leadership and Global War<br />22<br />
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Web Links (1 of 2)<br />Incore<br />Institute for War and Peace Reporting <br />Inter...
Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Web Links (2 of 2)<br />Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<br />The Henry L. Stimson C...
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Kegley chapter 7

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  • Examples of wars involving ethnic groups seeking grater autonomy include the Kurds in Turkey and the Chechens in Russia.Ongoing conflicts in the Darfur region of Sudan are characterized by many as state-sponsored terrorism.
  • The number and severity of failed states is expected to grow in the 21st century. The countries whose governments are most in danger of failing include Somalia, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Chad, Dem. Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Central Africa Republic, Guinea and Pakistan.
  • Terrorism is not a modern tactic, but was perhaps first recorded as a number of assassinations conducted by the Sicarii in Judea during the first century BCE.
  • Establishment violence, such as that of the Gestapo in Nazi Germany, is a form of terrorism used to sustain an existing political regime.
  • Cyberterrorism: use of the Internet to recruit terrorists and coordinate attacks; also the use of viruses and other informational technology to disable financial and government institutions.
  • The U.S. accused Iraq of state-sponsored terrorism (during the administration of Saddam Hussein) and continues to accuse the governments of Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria. Governments cannot agree on the bet method to control global terrorism, and the U.S. approach under the Bush administration was extensively criticized by many other nations.
  • Both Sweden and Switzerland have managed conflicts without war since the early 19th century.
  • Large numbers of unemployed youth concentrated in large cities and a lack of sustainable growth increase the odds of civil war.
  • Long-cycle theory holds that a new global power emerges every 80 to 100 years.
  • What hegemon is most likely to take the United States place as this global leadership cycle ends?
  • Kegley chapter 7

    1. 1. Chapter 7: Patterns of Armed Conflict<br />
    2. 2. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Force<br />Coercive Diplomacy: The use of violence or the threat of violence to achieve a political goal.<br />2<br />
    3. 3. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />General Trends<br />Civil war vs. Interstate war<br />Realists: war is an instrument for international actors to use to resolve their conflicts <br />Proportion of countries engaged in wars has declined; mostly internal wars<br />Fewer, but more deadly, armed conflicts <br />Most wars occur in the Global South<br />War is no longer fought to gain foreign territory<br />War between great powers is becoming obsolete<br />“Long peace”<br />3<br />
    4. 4. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />A Perspective on Armed Conflicts<br />4<br />
    5. 5. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Causes of Civil Wars<br />Ethnic groups<br />Internal battles<br />Religious conflicts<br />“Failed states”<br />Impoverished states <br />5<br />
    6. 6. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Characteristics of Failing States<br />Poverty<br />Rule by corrupt governments<br />Lack of democracy<br />Poor democracies<br />Population pressures<br />Governments that fail to protect human rights<br />Petrostates<br />Lack of trade openness<br />Large numbers of underemployed youths<br />6<br />
    7. 7. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Threat of Failed States<br />7<br />
    8. 8. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The International Dimensions of Internal War <br />Great powers <br />Diversionary theory of war <br />Civil wars can become internationalized through<br />The tendency for them to incite external intervention<br />The propensity for leaders of governments that are failing to wage wars abroad in order to try and control rebellion at home <br />8<br />
    9. 9. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Insurgency, Guerilla Warfare, and Counterinsurgency<br />The focus is not on defeating the enemy on the field of battle, but on raising the costs of conflict so that it is higher than any possible benefit to the attacker.<br />9<br />
    10. 10. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Terrorism<br />Asymmetric warfare: The use of violence (or the threat of it) by non-governmental actors in an effort to change government policies by creating fear of further violence. <br />10<br />
    11. 11. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Causes of Terrorism<br />Rational Choice Explanation <br />Poverty<br />Religion <br />Islam and Terrorism <br />11<br />
    12. 12. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Who Becomes a Terrorist?<br />Profiling terrorists <br />Group dynamics and terrorism <br />12<br />
    13. 13. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />New Global Terrorism<br />Nonhierarchical<br />Use of technology<br />Religious fanaticism<br />Goal is to kill as many people as possible<br />Fear of them acquiring WMDs<br />13<br />
    14. 14. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Number of Terrorist Incidents and the Rising Number of Casualties Since the Late 1960s<br />14<br />
    15. 15. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Counterterrorism <br />Repression<br />Conciliation<br />Bush Doctrine<br />State-sponsored terrorism<br />Terrorism harder to fight today<br />15<br />
    16. 16. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />War: First Level of Analysis (1 of 2)<br />Relationship between human nature and aggression<br />Humans one of few species to practice intraspecific aggression<br />Realists assume drive for power and aggression is innate<br />Most social scientists disagree<br />16<br />
    17. 17. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />First Level of Analysis (2 of 2)<br />Nature versus nurture debate<br />Aggression through socialization rather than instinct?<br />Territorial imperative as cause of war<br />National character: drives certain nationalities to aggression<br />Rational choice versus groupthink <br />17<br />
    18. 18. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />War: Second Level of Analysis (1 of 2)<br />States’ internal characteristics<br />Duration of independence<br />Cultural determinants of specific states<br />Feminist theories: masculine ethos of realism<br />Cultural conditioning<br />18<br />
    19. 19. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Second Level of Analysis (2 of 2)<br />Poverty<br />State location relative to other states<br />Demographic stress<br />Militarization<br />Economic system: communism v. capitalism<br />Government system: democracies don’t fight each other<br />Nationalism<br />19<br />
    20. 20. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Demographic Stress and the Likelihood of Civil War<br />20<br />
    21. 21. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />War: Third Level of Analysis (1 of 2)<br />Global characteristics engender war<br />Realism: anarchy  self-help<br />Security dilemma<br />Bargaining model of war<br />Power transition theory: structural realism<br />Long-cycle theory: dethroning hegemons<br />War weariness hypothesis<br />21<br />
    22. 22. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Long Cycle Theory of Global Leadership and Global War<br />22<br />
    23. 23. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Web Links (1 of 2)<br />Incore<br />Institute for War and Peace Reporting <br />International Crisis Group<br />War, Peace, Security Guide<br />Arms Sales Monitoring Project<br />23<br />
    24. 24. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Web Links (2 of 2)<br />Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<br />The Henry L. Stimson Center<br />SIPRI Military Expenditure Country Graphs<br />24<br />

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