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PCA10 Heres a Scenario For You

ProductCamp Austin 10
What you can see coming can sometimes hurt you, but you have time to prepare for it. Most often it's what you *can't* see that will smack you solidly upside the head and upset your business or non-profit. There are lots of reasons for not seeing risk, including cognitive bias - we all ignore data that doesn't fit our world-view, it's part of our built-in human pattern recognition circuitry. I'll introduce a few simple scenario planning concepts and process steps as antidotes to cognitive bias, blind spots, and other impediments to exploring the future and proper risk mitigation.
Session Category: Product Strategy
Target Audience: PM for Entrepreneurs
Session Format: Presentation

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PCA10 Heres a Scenario For You

  1. 1. Here’s a scenario for you –Effectively address risk by using scenarios Paul Teich Tech Industry Analyst
  2. 2. @PCAustin #PCATX @paulrteichwww.linkedin.com/in/paulteichwww.facebook.com/paul.teich
  3. 3. Scenarios: future market context Scenarios are a self-consistent set of stories about plausible futures - they highlight future uncertainty Scenarios are notScenarios are not strategy predictions They create Do not expect context for that any single strategy scenario will be “correct” or Metaphor: flying “the” future aircraft designs through various Can’t assign wind tunnel probabilities configurations 40+ years of Scenario Planning best practices
  4. 4. Uncertainty and scenarios frame strategy Scenarios are a consistent framework to encourage constructive dialog They “open the aperture” for stakeholders to consider alternatives they would otherwise dismiss without thinking critically about them How will you differentiate ourselves in each scenario?
  5. 5. Uncertainty defines scenarios What is it we want to know about our future? Bound our scope and market windows Do the homework Look for uncertainty
  6. 6. What is uncertain about a future? Structuring future scenarios and acknowledging riskPick pairs of uncertaintiesPlay with themSettle on uncertainties that bestillustrate potential risk andpotential rewardWrite a set of scenarios that talk tohow the uncertainties mightresolve themselves
  7. 7. Scenario planning process Core Team Larger Group Create planning question Brainstorming #1 “Beliefs” (scope) and prompts for… “I believe…” Diverge Topical investigations and Brainstorming #2 “Assertions” create prompts for… “We believe…” ConvergeScenario structure and high- Brainstorming #3 “Dynamics” level dynamics Review/critique structure and brainstorm scenario dynamics Draft scenarios Consistency and completeness checking Strategic planning simulations, publication, etc.
  8. 8. Scenario deliverables Differentiating structure based on Structure critical uncertainties and events Scenario A description of our market or industryDescriptions in each alternate future Platform Describe “dominant design” featuresDescriptions in each future Events that determine which scenarioGuideposts features are evolving
  9. 9. Client scenario map 2002 UncertaintiesScenarios Privacy, Security, Software Performance Drivers 3G Internet and OwnershipFlat-Lined No interoperable standards emerge; No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use point solutions exist for every service. breakthroughs made.Islands of Utilityx86 Nirvana New PC software performance drivers have emerged. The telecom industry Because the drivers are not yet evident and beyond our ability to and ISPs fail to deliver predict accurately, we assume the following: The consumer driver is wide-area high-speed related to integration with entertainment and other home systems – data services. by 2006 it unifies and simplifies consumer control over life at home and enhances the consumer entertainment experience by providing easy means to find and retrieve content wherever it resides (on the PC, An interoperable in consumer electronics devices, over the Web, etc.). The commercial PSO solution driver is related to collaboration – by 2005 it increases team achieves productivity within organizations and across the extended enterprise.ARMy of significant market No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use The telecom industryDarkness penetration. breakthroughs made for the PC. Incremental user interface succeeds in creating breakthroughs occurred in mobile Internet usage, creating greater both infrastructure and utility for much of the market. Web services provide a software demand for 3G Internet applications framework independent of handheld architecture or OS. services, pushing the Collaboration is an enterprise killer app, as in x86 Nirvana, but it applies to mobile devices and is not a PC utility driver. By 2005 mobile focus of computing to collaboration increases team productivity within organizations and an anytime, anywhere across the extended enterprise. model.
  10. 10. Client scenario map 2002 UncertaintiesScenarios Privacy, Security, Software Performance Drivers 3G Internet and OwnershipFlat-Lined No interoperable standards emerge; No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use Apple created the content point solutions exist store and app ecosystem for every service. breakthroughs made.Islands of Utilityx86 Nirvana One 4yr scenario became The telecom industry generally New PC software performance drivers have emerged. Because the drivers are not yet evident and beyond our ability to and ISPs fail to deliver true 8 years later… high-speed predict accurately, we assume the following: The consumer driver is wide-area related to integration with entertainment and other home systems – data services. this is as close to a “win” as it gets! by 2006 it unifies and simplifies consumer control over life at home and enhances the consumer entertainment experience by providing easy means to find and retrieve content wherever it resides (on the PC, An interoperable in consumer electronics devices, over the Web, etc.). The commercial PSO solution driver is related to collaboration – by 2005 it increases team achieves productivity within organizations and across the extended enterprise. significant market No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use The telecom industryARMy of penetration. breakthroughs made for the PC. Incremental user interface succeeds in creatingDarkness breakthroughs occurred in mobile Internet usage, creating greater both infrastructure and utility for much of the market. Web services provide a software demand for 3G Internet applications framework independent of handheld architecture or OS. services, pushing the Collaboration is an enterprise killer app, as in x86 Nirvana, but it applies to mobile devices and is not a PC utility driver. By 2005 mobile focus of computing to collaboration increases team productivity within organizations and an anytime, anywhere across the extended enterprise. model.
  11. 11. Client scenario map 2009 Kinda missed services… Locality Local Hosted End-to-End Apps ThundercloudUser Experience (New Apps) (New Apps) Non-PC PC-Based Today Hosted Client Windows and (New Apps) (Good Enough) Mac Enterprise Created this as bridge to next…
  12. 12. Server scenario map 2009 Kinda missed services… Scalability Specific Applications General Purpose Hosted Cloud ExperienceApplication Focus Client Experience Hardware+ Hyper-Scale (Today) Business
  13. 13. Discussion Thanks!

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