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Operationalizing SJOSH for national economies - ISEE2016


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Talk at International Society for Ecological Economics 2016

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Operationalizing SJOSH for national economies - ISEE2016

  1. 1. Operationalizing the safe and just space for humanity in national economies Peter Søgaard Jørgensen Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences @PSJorgensen –
  2. 2. The Safe and Just Operating Space for Humanity - SJOSH Raworth 2012
  3. 3. SJOSH - global state Steffen et al. 2015 Raworth 2012
  4. 4. SJOSH – SDGs – decoupling Rockström and Sukhdev – EAT forum 2016
  5. 5. National performance? • Territorial socio-economic and evironmental conditions England, Scotland, Wales, South Africa Cole et al. 2015 OXFAM Dearing et al. 2014 GEC Ecosystem stability
  6. 6. National economies are globally connected through trade Jørgensen et al. in prep
  7. 7. Questions • What are feasible approaches to national downscaling that account for trade? • Under which accounting frameworks are socio-economic variables decoupling from environmental impact? Methods • Material decoupling under apparent vs. final consumption • End-point elasticities • 1990-2008 • 160 countries covered by global statistical databases Jørgensen et al. in prep
  8. 8. SJOSH and material flows Material consumption Socio-economic conditions Question Domestic socio-economic progress per domestic material consumption (apparent consumption) Domestic socio-economic progress per global material consumption (final consumption)
  9. 9. Quantifying final consumption via multi- regional input-output models (MRIOS)
  10. 10. Effect of consumption perspective on GDP Jørgensen et al. in prep change in category
  11. 11. Group variable Education Gross enrolment ratio, pre-primary, total Gross enrolment ratio, primary, total Gross enrolment ratio, secondary, total Gender Share of Women (Lower House) Health HIV rate in adults (15-49 years) Infant mortality rate Life expectancy at birth Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) Income GDP per Capita Jobs Unemployment total Unemployment youth Sanitation WasteWaterCollect2011.csv WasteWaterTreatment2011.csv Equity Income share held by lowest 10 % quantile Income share held by lowest 20 % quantile Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty Technology Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) Water Population supplied by water supply industry Broader set of social indicators Jørgensen et al. in prep
  12. 12. SJOSH indicators versus GDP Jørgensen et al. in prep
  13. 13. Decoupling with domestic consumption • The policy framing before the 2008 crash GDP per capita [log10] Jørgensen et al. in prep
  14. 14. Decoupling with final consumption • Appropriate framing for the 2030 agenda GDP per capita [log10] decouplingproportion Jørgensen et al. in prep
  15. 15. Consumption perspective alters the decoupling story for high income countries Jørgensen et al. in prep
  16. 16. High income countries more likely to intensify than decouple (6 / 8 groups) Jørgensen et al. in prep
  17. 17. Absolute decoupling Jørgensen et al. in prep
  18. 18. Summary • SJOSH for national economies should take embodied environmental impacts into account • Changing to a final consumption perspective changes the decoupling relationship from U-shaped to steadily declining • Decoupling of final consumption becomes relatively more difficult at a GDP per capita > 10 k USD • Radically new economic models are needed to address SJOSH and SDGs challenge
  19. 19. Not a GPS
  20. 20. But still useful?
  21. 21. Thank You! Peter Søgaard Jørgensen Date 2016-06-27 @PSJorgensen –