筆者要鄭重指出的是，摒棄新自由主義絕非等 於反對市場經濟。事實是，自有文明以來，市 場便是人類社會和經濟活動的重要組成部分。 但正如環保學者 Amory Lovins 所說：「市場 只不過是一種工具。它是一個不錯的僕人，卻 是一個糟糕的主人，更是一個糟透了的宗教。」 （Markets are only tools. They make a good servant but a bad master and a worse religion.）
早於上世紀末，一些有識之士便已指出，人類 必須在共產主義和資本主義之外，開出一條新 的發展道路。1997 年英國首相貝理雅（Tony Blair）上台時，曾以著名社會學家 Anthony Giddens 的學術理念為基礎，提出了「第三條 道路」（The Third Way）的構想。可惜的是， 貝理雅敵不過跨國大財團大企業的壓力，最後 還是在新自由主義和全球化經濟的巨浪之前低 頭。而「第三條道路」的理想，更淪為人們的 笑柄。
必須走的「第三條道路」（THE THIRD WAY）「民主市場社會主義」 Democratic Market Socialism (DMS); or「自由民主社會主義 」 Liberal Democratic Socialism (LDS)
進一步的參考資料： The UK New Economics Foundation (nef): http://www.neweconomics.org/about The Post-Autistic Economics Network: http://www.paecon.net/PAEmovementindex1. htm The Monfort Plan: http://povertyblog.wordpress.com/2009/10/28 /the-monfort-plan/
以下是我在網上找到的一個由聯合國 Depat of Economic & Social Affairs所製作的ppt。主題 是締造一個 Global New Deal，為所有人提供 一個基本的 Social Floor.
UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRSA Global New Deal for People in a Global Crisis: Social Protection for All Isabel Ortiz Senior Interregional Advisor United Nations DESA United Nations Commission for Social Development New York, 6 February 2009
World’s Distribution of Income before the Financial Crisis: Apartheid at a Global Scale?Source: Sutcliffe, 2005. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.WP 2. United Nations
2008- FOOD AND FUEL CRISIS More people suffering from poverty, unemployment and hunger• Food crisis sidelined although it continues to pose a global humanitarian challenge Falling prices but also falling incomes due to world recession • Source: United Nations, 2009: World Economic Situation and Prospects. New York, UNDESA Food crisis currently sidelined although it continues to pose a global humanitarian challenge Falling prices but also falling incomes due to world recession
VIOLENT RIOTS AND PROTESTS BECAUSE FOOD CRISIS Food Protests 2007-08 20 15 10 • Violent 5 Non-violent 0 Low Low -Middle Upper- High income Income Middle Income Countries IncomeSource: IFPRI, 2008 based on news reports
2008- GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISWORLD INCOME PER CAPITA WILL DECLINE IN 2009 Source: United Nations, 2009: World Economic Situation and Prospects. New York, UNDESA
SOCIAL IMPACTS FINANCIAL CRISIS: TRANSMISSION CHANNELSPrices Basic food Agricultural inputs Government Spending and Essential drugs Utilization of Social Services Fuel • Education • HealthEmployment and Income Wage cuts, reduction in • Social security benefits • Employment programmes Decreased demand for migrant workers Aid Levels (ODA decreasing?) Remittances Returns from pension fundsAssets and Credit Loss of savings due to bank failures Loss of savings as a coping mechanism Home foreclosures 2009: Lack of access to credit MDGs at Risk
LESSONS FROM OTHER FINANCIAL CRISISLessons from other financial crisis show that socialconsequences need to be tackled urgently Quick increase unemployment, poverty, hunger Women more affected than men Children malnourished, out of school Increased morbidity and mortality rates Contracting fiscal spaceUrgent need to:• Expand social expenditures, protecting: Job and income security Access to goods and services (e.g. food, health)• Stimulus packages aimed to expand credit, economic activity• Increase quality aid (ODA)
1929 CRASH LED TO A NEW DEALThe New Deal (1933- ) • Bank reforms • Social Security Act (1935) • Universal old-age pensions • Unemployment insurance • Social assistance for poor families and persons with disabilities • Employment programs (public works), collective bargaining, minimum wages • Farm/rural programs
SO WHY NOT A GLOBAL NEW DEAL? The crisis an opportunity to redress existing assymetries, poverty, over-reliance on market forces, speculation Economic policies – better regulating markets, reforming international system, fiscal stimulus… Social policies: A social security floor, a basic and modest set of social protection guarantees for all citizens 1. Income security through basic, universal non- contributory pensions for: older persons, persons with disabilities 2. Child benefits 3. Employment programmes 4. Financing universal access to essential health care 5. Food security programmes
THE CASE FOR A GLOBAL SOCIAL FLOOR: SOCIAL JUSTICE ARGUMENTS Unacceptable levels of poverty and inequality Half of the world lives below the $2-a-day poverty line The poorest 50% of the world’s adult population receives 1% of global wealth (UN WIDER, 2006) Social security is a human right: Articles 22 and 25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states: “Everyone, as a member of society, has the right to social security” But 80% of global population remains without access
BUT ALSO STRONG ECONOMIC ARGUMENTS Inequality is economically inefficient / dysfunctional World problem of overproduction and global excess capacity in the context of weak effective demand Consumption concentrated in top income deciles Raising the incomes of the poor increases domestic demand and, in turn, encourages growth by expanding domestic markets A Global Social Floor can be an effective instrument to: Boost economic growth by raising domestic demand / internal markets Enhance human capital and productive employment - a better educated, healthy and well nourished workforce.
… AND POLITICAL ARGUMENTS A Global Social Floor can be effective to prevent conflict and create politically stable societies Poverty and gross inequities tend to generate intense social tensions and violent conflict Other crisis: riots, violent xenophobia The huge disparities in income inequality encourage uncontrolled migration
TRANSFERS REDUCE POVERTY MORE THAN 50% IN OECD COUNTRIES4035302520151050 France Germany Italy Netherlands Sweden UK US Pre-tax/transfer Post-tax/transfer Source: OECD
South Africa Social Transfers Effective to Reduce Poverty and Destitution – Cost 3% GDP Source: Sampson, M. 2006, EFPRI South Africa=> However social transfers are rarely considered in NationalDevelopment Strategies/Poverty Reduction Strategies in DevelopingCountries=> Social Transfers can make the difference between achieving MDG1of halving poverty by 2015 or not
CASH TRANSFERS SCHEMES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: COVERING 200 MILLION PEOPLETYPE OF TRANSFERS COUNTRIESUnconditionalHousehold Income Chile, China, Mozambique, ZambiaSupportSocial Pensions Argentina, Bolivia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Bostwana, Chile, Costa Rica, India, Lesotho, Mauritius, Moldova, Namibia, Nepal, Samoa, South Africa, Tajikistan, Uruguay, VietnamChild/Family Benefits Mozambique, South AfricaConditionalCash for Work Argentina, Etiopía, India, South Korea, Malawi, South AfricaCash for Human Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador,Development Honduras, Jamaica, México, Mongolia, NicaraguaSource: Source: ILO, 2007. Social Security Department, Geneva and UN DESA, 2007: World Economic and SocialSurvey 2007, United Nations
CASH TRANSFERS – LESSONS LEARNT FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Prevalence: In more than 25 developing countries Covering at least 150-200 million people Cost: Basic means-tested social assistance benefits- about 0.2% GDP Complete set of basic universal benefits – From 2% to 5% of GDP Poverty impact: South Africa reduced poverty gap by 48 % Mexico PROGRESA/Oportunidades and Brazil’s Bolsa Scola: Reduced poverty by 12 points Education: Positive enrolment effects and school attendance duration in Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Bangladesh, Nicaragua and Zambia Health: Positive effects on height, weight of children and nutritional status in Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Malawi, South Africa
Financing a Global New Deal: National Sources A Social Floor is affordable, estimated at an average 2% to 5% GDP in developing countries (ILO) It have to grow with the fiscal space made available by: Increasing GDP Aid/debt Domestic resources exist: Accumulated reserves Budget reallocation Need to increase efficiency of tax collection - Billions lost through tax evasion, inadequate tax systems, illicit flows South-North transfers must be reversed, use savings for the development of the South
Budget Reallocation: Warfare vs. Human WelfareSource: Richard Jolly, 2004: Military spending and development, Sussex, IDS
Potential Fiscal Space: Use of Accumulated Reserves Increasing Global Reserve Accumulation, 1998-2007Little left togovernmentsto spend onsocial andeconomicdevelopment
Potential Fiscal Space Developing Countries Financial FlowsSource: EURODAD, 2008. Capital flight diverts development finance. EURODAD: Brussels.
Financing a Global New Deal: International SourcesStrong argument for North-South transfers given worldinequalities, 70% explained by differences in incomebetween countries (UNDESA) ILO estimates that basic social security would cost 2% of world’s GDP Mechanisms: Increased Official Development Aid Multilateral and bilateral ODA to governments New instruments like SWAps and Budget Support ideal World Solidarity Fund? Global New Deal Fund?
Crisis: What Next? Monitoring social conditions (creating “alarms”) to call for urgent support Social expenditures need to be protected and expanded Analyzing distributional impacts of different economic policy options to the crisis, and creating a public debate Supporting governments (“How to”, instruments, best options…) Crisis response facility (World Solidarity Fund/Global New Deal Fund?) Donor contributions Management: One-UN Recipients: Governments to jump-start a New Deal: Income security through basic, universal non-contributory pensions Child benefits Employment programmes Access to social services Food security programmes
Thank youUnited Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs http://www.un.org/esa/ Email: email@example.com