June 2011 BIG Call

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  • John Mariotti is the President/CEO & Founder of The Enterprise Group , a coalition of time-shared executive advisors™ John currently serves as a Director on several corporate boards including: World Kitchen and MCM Capital, and as an advisor to several leading companiesIn previous roles, John was President of Rubbermaid Office Products Group and President of Huffy Bicycles John is an award-winning author of The Complexity Crisis,and has written nine business books and a novel Since 2001 John as been writing and publishing a weekly newsletter: THE ENTERPRISE, which now appears on a publicly available webblogHe also writes weekly blog posts for American Express Open Forum and FORBES Prosper Now. Articles and interviews about his business successes have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Business Week and many more publications John has been a guest on CNBC's Today's Business and Power Lunch shows, a panelist on MSNBC’S Your Business, and his keynote speeches have been enjoyed by tens of thousands of people
  • June 2011 BIG Call

    1. 1. The BIG CallJune 2011Pam Goodfellow, Senior Analyst, BIGresearch Guest Contributor: John Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group <br />400 W. Wilson Bridge Rd.<br />Suite 200<br />Worthington, OH 43085<br />Ph: 614-846-0146<br />BIGinfo@bigresearch.com<br />presented by:<br />
    2. 2. John Mariotti, President/CEO & Founder of The Enterprise Group<br /><ul><li> Director on corporate boards including:
    3. 3. World Kitchen Inc.
    4. 4. MCM Capital
    5. 5. Previously:
    6. 6. President of Rubbermaid Office Products Group
    7. 7. President of Huffy Bicycles
    8. 8. Award-winning author of The Complexity Crisis
    9. 9. Author of nine business books
    10. 10. Writing THE ENTERPRISE, a weekly newsletter & blog, since 2001
    11. 11. Writing a weekly blog for American Express Open Forum
    12. 12. Writing a weekly blog for FORBES/Prosper Now
    13. 13. Advisor to several well-known companies
    14. 14. Articles and interviews about his business successes have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Business Week and many more publications
    15. 15. Guest on CNBC's Today's Business and Power Lunch shows and a panelist on MSNBC’S Your Business</li></li></ul><li>Consumer Intentions & Actions: June<br /><ul><li>Consumer Confidence
    16. 16. Employment Environment
    17. 17. Practical Purchasing
    18. 18. Effects of Escalating Pump Prices
    19. 19. 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
    20. 20. Guest Contributor:
    21. 21. John Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group</li></ul>This report is derived from the following BIGresearch® Studies:<br /><ul><li>BIGresearch® Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey (CIA™), June 2011 (N = 8379, respondents surveyed 6/1 – 6/8/11)
    22. 22. BIGresearch® Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey Trends, June 2003 – June 2011</li></ul>Disclaimer: BIGresearch® makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained by BIGresearch from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing BIGresearch statistics; or the BIGresearch data and estimates represent only the opinion of BIGresearch and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.<br />BIGresearch® is a registered trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.<br />
    23. 23. Consumer Confidence<br />Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 10-11<br />
    24. 24. Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 04-11<br />Consumer Confidence<br />
    25. 25. Consumers Worried about Economy<br />Not a pretty picture—discouraging!<br />Lack confidence that government “gets it.”<br />Debts, Deficits, Dithering…<br />Jobs coming back too slowly<br />Recovery faltering, uncertain<br />Small business owners very concerned<br />Obamacare, New Regulations (EPA+), Taxes (temporary)<br />No relief in sight! A “broken economy”<br />
    26. 26. Employment Outlook<br />Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that there will be more, the same or fewer layoffs than at present?Adults 18+<br />9.6%*<br />9.4%*<br />9.1%*<br />9.0%*<br />5.4%*<br />* U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey®, JUN 08-11<br />
    27. 27. Job Situation: Complex & Worrisome<br />Layoffs may not increase…(postponed hiring)<br />New jobs may not either (at least not enough!)…<br />Need 150,000/mo. just for new entrants to labor force<br />5 people looking for every 1 job available—wrong skills too!<br />Productivity gains = competitiveness—but fewer jobs<br />US manufacturing rebound good; but too few jobs<br />Housing still in BIG trouble—no relief in sight<br />Foreclosures + Excess Home Inventory<br />Tighter Financing Rules + Worried Homebuyers<br />Most materials in houses made in USA—way down too<br />
    28. 28. Practicality in Purchasing<br />In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?Adults 18+<br />Jun-11 #s = <br />New June HIGHS<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 03-11<br />
    29. 29. Consumers worried—about their future<br />Buying necessities, but inflation hurting them<br />Want to spend, but are afraid<br />Savings up—a very good direction<br />BUT:<br />Government budget cutting means cutting government jobs<br />Entitlements are “broke”—insolvent<br />Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, <br />States & State Pension Funds<br />
    30. 30. Effects of Escalating Pump Prices<br />Fluctuating Gas Prices Have Impacted My SpendingAdults 18+<br />45.7%<br />Anticipate gas prices will continue to rise through the end of June<br />$3.91<br />Expected price per gallon at the end of the month<br />59.6%<br />Hybrid Automobiles are “Hot” (only 8.9% are considering purchasing in next 6 months)<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 10-11<br />Energy Information Administration (All Grades, All Formulations)<br />
    31. 31. Symbolic of Failed Policies<br />Failed Policies (a partial list) <br />Excess Spending (TARP, Stimulus, QE1 & QE2, etc.) <br />No budget, just spend, spend, spend—record deficits<br />Reduced value of the US$ & we buy Oil with US$<br />Warned by “rating agencies”…of credit downgrade<br />US has enough oil/gas/coal reserves but is not permitted to find, extract it & use them…<br />Alternatives are years/decades away: Wind, Solar, Nuclear, Geothermal, Tidal. Environmentalists block plans anyway!<br />The USA is more dependent on foreign oil than ever<br />Government Energy Policy is “Do nothing.”<br />
    32. 32. 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans<br />Over the next 90 days (June, July and August), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+<br />Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook(Jun-11 compared to May-11, Jun-10, Jun-09 and Jun-08)<br />Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (May-11) or years (Jun-10, Jun-09, Jun-08). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 08-11<br />
    33. 33. 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans<br />Over the next 90 days (June, July and August), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+<br />Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook(Jun-11 compared to PRE-RECESSION Jun-07)<br />Do increasing food prices explain why consumers plan to spend MORE?<br />Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the prior year (Jun-07). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.<br />Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 07-11<br />
    34. 34. Summary: A “Broke” US Economy<br />Consumers know better than government <br />— “live within their means” —<br />Consumers still hurting from 2007<br />Consumers want & need to buy, but are afraid<br />Buying necessities, gas & food, modest gifts & vacations<br />Arecovery? Maybe, but an anemic one so far…<br />Stock market has plateaued & pulled back<br />Consumers fearful about their future—health care, retirement, jobs, inflation, everything!<br />
    35. 35. Contact BIGresearch®<br />BIGresearch®<br />400 W. Wilson Bridge Road<br />Suite 200<br />Worthington, OH 43085<br />Ph: 614-846-0146<br />BIGinfo@bigresearch.com<br />Learn more about John Mariotti at: http://www.mariotti.netand read his views weekly, at “Telling it like it is”: http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/<br />For complimentary insights powered by BIGresearch® data, visit:<br />www.BIGinsight.com<br />

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