BIG Call June 2012 Sneak Peek

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A quick preview of the June 2012 BIG Call!

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BIG Call June 2012 Sneak Peek

  1. 1. The BIG Call June 2012 PA M E L A G O O D F E L L O W CONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™ GUEST CONTRIBUTOR:JOHN MARIOTTI, PRESIDENT & CEO, THE ENTERPRISE GROUP 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com
  2. 2. June 2012 Consumer Survey  June 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence • Employment Outlook • Practical Purchasing • Financial Forecast • 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans • How is JC Penney’s “Fair & Square” Faring? This report is derived from the following studies: • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, June 2012 (N = 8760, respondents surveyed 6/5 – 6/12/12) • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, June 2007 – June 2012 Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.© 2012, Prosper®
  3. 3. Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+ 28%+ decline40% 50% from 45% Jun-0735% 40% 35% 32.4%30% 30% 27.8% 31.3% 25%25% 20% 15%20% 10% 43.9% 18.8% 30.2% 30.2% 27.8% 32.4% 31.3% 5%15% 0% Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 May-12 Jun-12© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUN 07-12
  4. 4. Employment OutlookRegarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that therewill be more, the same, or fewer layoffs than at present?Adults 18+  Highlights: More Same Fewer U.S. Unemployment Rate* • One in four expecting “more” 100% 10.0% layoffs over the next six months 90% 19.2% 17.4% 16.6%  Up nearly four points from a 21.3% 9.5% month ago U.S. Unemployment Rate* 80% 9.6%* • Fewer than one in five calling Layoff Predictions 70% 9.0% 9.0% for “fewer” layoffs 60% 52.2% 54.6% 56.3% • Optimism fails to appear even 50% 55.5% 8.5% as Unemployment Rate 8.2% 40% declines 8.0%  Unemployment Rate has 30% 8.1% declined 15% from Jun-10 20%  Expecting “more” has only 7.5% 28.6% 28.1% 27.0% 10% 23.3% decreased 5% within same time period 0% 7.0% Jun-10 Jun-11 May-12 Jun-12 • Employment mantra = more of the “same.” * U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUN 10-12
  5. 5. Employment Outlook FUD Part I: Fear Uncertainty & Doubt … CONTINUE —Higher Productivity = More Competitive —Fewer People Do More Work = Fewer Jobs —Supply of Workers >> Demand for Employees (4:1) —High Tech/High Skill Jobs go Unfilled, (or in Wrong Locations) —Low Tech/Low Skill Jobs More Numerous (and Low Pay) Creates Downward Pressure on All Wages (Impact on Spending?)© 2012, Prosper®
  6. 6. Savings SummaryHow much of your annual income do you estimate you saved in the last 12 months (includingany money saved towards retirement, education, liquid savings, etc.)?Adults 18+45%  Highlights: • More than one-third (33.9%) is not40% saving any income at all  On the decline since peaking in35% Jun-10 (38.2%), has yet to30% recede to Jun-07 level (29.3%) • Those saving between 1% and25% 10% slowly declining since Jun-07 • Nearly one in five are saving 11%20% to 20%, nearing pre-recession level15% • Balance are saving 21% to 50% (6.2%) or more than 50% (2.0%) of10% their incomes Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12  Though small, these figures 0% 1 to 10% 11 to 20% have both increased slightly since Jun-07© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUN 07-12
  7. 7. Savings Summary After “FUD” Wears Down Americans… …The “Stockholm Syndrome” Grabs Them! (This terms comes from when people held hostage begin to accept and feel better about their captors.) When Things Have Been Bad (or Not Good) for So Long, Even a Small Change/Improvement Starts to Look Good Example: When job growth is below 125,000 per month, a month or two above 125,000 looks good, but 150,000 new jobs/month are needed to just absorb new workforce entrants, which doesn’t really help unemployment—it just hasn’t gotten any worse. BUT—Reality “Bites”—Shows the Improvements Were “Illusory” Take a Look….© 2012, Prosper®
  8. 8. How is JC Penney’s “Fair & Square” Faring?Women’s Clothing – Shop Most OftenAdults 18+ JC Penney Macys  Highlights: 11% • Traditionally #3 in Women’s 10% Clothing, since the launch of "Fair & Square" “Fair & Square,” JC Penney has Commences 9% fallen to #4, behind Macy’s • For more, click over to the 8% BIG Consumer Blog 7%  Includes 10 year trends for Top 5 Women’s Clothing 6% retailers (Walmart, Kohl’s, Macy’s, JC Penney, Target) 5%  “Hot or Not?” trended graphic for JCP “Fair & 4% Square” (Mar-12 vs. Jun-12) NEW Blog “Fair & Square” Revisited© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUN 11-12
  9. 9. Thank you Thank you for your interest in our June 2012 BIG Call data. CLICK HERE to view the full deck of BIG Call slides for June 2012© 2012, Prosper®
  10. 10. Contact 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road Suite 200 Worthington, OH 43085 Ph: 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com for complimentary insights, visit: www.BIGinsight.com For more about John Mariotti: http://www.mariotti.net/ _ and _ “Telling It Like It Is” Blog© 2012, Prosper®

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