BIG Call - April 2012

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BIG Call - April 2012

  1. 1. The BIG Call April 2012 PA M E L A G O O D F E L L O WCONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™ S TA C I E S E V E R S CLIENT SERVICES MANAGER, BIGINSIGHT™400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com
  2. 2. April 2012 Consumer Survey  April 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence • Employment Outlook • Practical Purchasing • Financial Forecast  Decreasing Overall Spending • 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans  Pain at the Pump This report is derived from the following studies: • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, April 2012 (N = 8724, respondents surveyed 4/3 – 4/10/12) • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, April 2007 – April 2012 Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.© 2012, Prosper®
  3. 3. Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+40%  Highlights: 34.8%35% • Springing sentiment stalls in April 34.7%  Ends five month streak of continuous improvement30% • Remains elevated from Apr-11 28.6%25% • Falls well below pre-downturn Apr-07 (46.5%)20% 20.6%15%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
  4. 4. Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy 25%Adults 18+ decline40% 50% from Apr-07 45% 34.8%35% 40% 34.7% 35%30% 30% 28.6% 25%25% 20% 15%20% 10% 20.6% 46.5% 34.7% 5%15% 0% Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12
  5. 5. Employment Outlook Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that there will be more, the same, or fewer layoffs than at present? Adults 18+  Highlights: More Same Fewer U.S. Unemployment Rate* • One in four expecting “more” 100% 10.0% layoffs over the next six months 90% 9.8%  Slightly lower compared to 9.8%* 19.8% 80% 23.8% 22.9% 22.3% 9.6% Apr-11 and Apr-10 U.S. Unemployment Rate* 70% 9.4% • Those calling for “fewer”Layoff Predictions remains stagnant 60% 9.2%  Optimism fails to appear 50% 9.0% even as Unemployment 40% 8.9% 8.8% Rate declines 30% 48.6% 51.7% 8.6% • Employment mantra = more of 53.2% 53.7% the “same.” 20% 8.4% • Security among the employed 10% 8.3% 8.2% 8.2%  Just 3.1% fear becoming 27.6% 28.5% 23.9% 24.0% 0% 8.0% laid off Apr-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 * U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12
  6. 6. Practical PurchasingIn the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?Adults 18+60%  Highlights:58% • Practicality remains priority56% for majority54%52%  Slipped from March, but50% remains elevated from48% Apr-10, Apr-1146% • 58.6% are focused on44% necessities42%  In range of recession-era40% Apr-09 (59.5%) and Apr- 10 (59.4%) I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
  7. 7. Financial ForecastWhich of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months?Adults 18+ Apr-11 Mar-12 Apr-12  Highlights: • Summer sales drought? Pay down debt  Financial plans become more conservative compared to Apr-11 Increase savings • Paying down debt takes backseat to decreasing spending, while increasing Pay with cash more often savings holds strong • Decreasing overall spending nears the rare 40% territory…Decrease overall spending 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
  8. 8. Decreasing Overall Spending 45% Hurricane $4.50 Katrina Summer Post-Holiday  Highlights:% Planning to Decrease Overall Spending 08 Gas $ 08 High $4.00 • Decreasing overall 40% spending has only Average $/Gal Gasoline $3.50 approached 40% 35% $3.00 THREE times in the past seven years: $2.50 30%  Hurricane Katrina $2.00  Summer ‘08 Gas 25% Price Highs $1.50  Post-Holiday ’08 Plan to Decrease Spending Ave. Gas Price/Gal 20% $1.00 • Potential Culprits: May May May Jan-05 May Sep Jan-06 May Sep Jan-07 May Sep Jan-08 May Sep Jan-09 Sep Jan-10 Sep Jan-11 Sep Jan-12  Pain at the Pump  Increasing Prices  Capitol Hill? NEW Blog Why are Shoppers so Glum about Spending? CLICK to View Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JAN-05 - APR-12; © 2012, Prosper® Energy Information Administration (All Grades, All Formulations)
  9. 9. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day SpendingOver the next 90 days (April, May and June), do you plan on spending more, the same or lesson the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?Adults 18+ Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Apr-12 compared to Mar-12, Apr-11, and Apr-10) Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Children’s flat up up Toys/Games down up up Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up flat Women’s Casual flat up up Electronics down up up Men’s Dress flat up up Groceries down up down Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up down Shoes down up up Lawn & Garden down up down HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up Dining Out down up down Home Décor down up up Sporting Goods down up flat Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-12) or years (Apr-11, Apr-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12
  10. 10. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day SpendingOver the next 90 days (April, May and June), do you plan on spending more, the same or lesson the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?Adults 18+ Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Apr-12 compared to Mar-12, Apr-11, and Apr-10) Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 All categories Apr-10Category: Mar-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Children’s flat up up remain Toys/Games down up up Women’s Dress down up up DOWN CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up flat Women’s Casual flat up up from Electronics down up up Men’s Dress flat up pre-downturn up Groceries down up down April 2007 Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up down Shoes down up up Lawn & Garden down up down HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up Dining Out down up down Home Décor down up up Sporting Goods down up flat Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-12) or years (Apr-11, Apr-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 10-12
  11. 11. Pain at the PumpImpacted by Fluctuating Gas Prices vs. Actual Gas PricesAdults 18+ Apr-12 = 76.3%; $4.00/gal90.0% $4.50 Mar-12 = 76.7%; $3.85/gal Apr-11 = 79.3%; $3.74/gal $4.00 86.0%85.0% $3.50 82.2%80.0% 79.3% $3.00 76.3% Highest Reading: $2.50 Jun-08 = 86.0%75.0% $2.00 $4.03/gal 73.3% 74.0% 70.0%70.0% $1.50 $1.0065.0% $0.5060.0% $0.00 Gas Price (U.S. All Grades Avg for Week) Adults 18+: Impacted by Gas Prices© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12; Energy Information Association (eia.doe.gov)
  12. 12. Pain at the Pump Driving Less as a Result of Fluctuating Gas Prices vs. Actual Gas Prices Adults 18+ Apr-12 = 50.9%; $4.00/gal Mar-12 = 50.9%; $3.85/gal60.0% $4.50 Feb-12 = 40.3%; $3.54/gal 57.2% $4.0055.0% $3.50 50.9% Expected Price by End50.0% 49.5% $3.00 of Month: Feb-12 = $3.69 $2.50 Mar-12 = $4.0845.0% 45.7% $2.00 Apr-12 = $4.1740.0% 39.8% $1.50 38.6% $1.00 36.7%35.0% $0.5030.0% $0.00 Gas Price (U.S. All Grades Avg for Week) Adults 18+: Driving Less Often © 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 07-12; Energy Information Association (eia.doe.gov)
  13. 13. Pain at the PumpExpect Gas Prices to be MORE by the End of the MonthAdults 18+ 90.0% 81.8% 76.9% 80.0% 74.2% 74.2% 70.0% 63.3% 61.3% 60.0% 51.3% 50.0% 45.7% 46.1% 45.9% 45.0% 40.0% 34.8% 32.9% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
  14. 14. Pain at the PumpChanges in Fill-Up Habits as a Result of Fluctuating Gas PricesAdults 18+ Filling up as soon as I Filling up less often see prices drop even by letting my tank if I don’t need gas run close to Empty 29.1% 36.7% Filling up more often so that the cost isn’t as high each time I go to the pump 23.3%© 2012, Prosper® Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
  15. 15. Pain at the PumpAre you spending less on groceries because of gas prices in any of the following ways?Top Responses for Adults 18+ 47.6% 50.0% 44.3% 45.0% 38.7% 40.0% 35.2% 35.1% 35.0% 30.6% 29.4% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Using Only Buying more Switching to Making a list Stocking up Shopping at coupons more purchasing store brand different and only on products discount often the products I and generic brands buying the so that I can grocers more need (no products because they products on shop less often impulse are cheaper that list frequently purchases) or on sale© 2012, Prosper® Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
  16. 16. Pain at the PumpAre you spending less on clothing/shoes/accessories because of gas prices in any of thefollowing ways?Top Responses for Adults 18+ 39.8% 38.0% 40.0% 33.4% 35.0% 30.3% 30.0% 24.2% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 11.9% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Only buying Shopping less Shopping at Making Shopping at Only buying clothing, shoes, frequently discount stores clothing, shoes, malls less often clothing, shoes, and accessories more often and accessories and accessories on sale a smaller part of when I have a my budget coupon© 2012, Prosper® Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
  17. 17. Pain at the PumpUsing Smartphone Apps to Research Gas PricesTop Responses for Adults 18+ NEW! Pain at the Pump: Running on Empty 20.1% 34.9% Yes Read the Blog No I do not have a Smartphone 45.0%© 2012, Prosper® Source: American Pulse™ Survey, April 2012 #1
  18. 18. BIG Consumer Pain at the Pump: Running on Empty view The Price of a Woman’s Face view Blog Why Are Shoppers So Glum About Spending? view Consumer Buzz: Women’s Clothing view Battle of the Sexes: Keeping Up with the (Mobile) Joneses view Generation Gap: Webaholics Anonymous view Up, Up, and Away: Consumers Talk Rising Prices view Easter Will Be Hoppin’ for Parents this Year view© 2012, Prosper®
  19. 19. Contact 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road Suite 200 Worthington, OH 43085 Ph: 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com for complimentary insights, visit: www.BIGinsight.com© 2012, Prosper®

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