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Agriculture vision 2050 (1)Presentation presented to Governor KPK


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Presentation i presented to Governor KPK by ALLAHDAD KHAN

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Agriculture vision 2050 (1)Presentation presented to Governor KPK

  1. 1. Agriculture Vision 2050 GOVERNOR NWFP OCTOBER 2010 The new agenda for Agriculture an Food Security Allah Dad Khan Director General Agriculture Extension KPK Province
  2. 2. Agriculture Vision 2050 • The vision concept and the 2050 timeframe provide a clear and feasible goal for • Identify the gap between today and 2050 • Developing a path way and areas of action. • Clarifying the business perspective. • Qualifying market potential • Agreeing on action points and next steps.
  3. 3. GAP In Agriculture The National average yields of various crops are for below their potential yields realized at the progressive farms and that demonstrated at research stations. Four Yield levels 1. Yields on the average farmers fields.. 2.Best Practice yields. 3.Research potential yields. 4. Science potential yield . Associated with these four yields levels three “gaps” are defined. Firstly, extension gap, the difference between best practice and average yields. The extension programs are designed to close this gap. Secondly, research gap, the difference between research potential yields and the best practice yields. Applied research programs, if successful, will close this gap (and will thus open up the extension gap). Thirdly, science gap, the difference between science potential and the research potential yields and continually bridging this gap by enhancing the best practice yield through applied Research
  4. 4. Low Yield and Unachieved Potentials Issues Actions/Technologies 67 to 83 75 % unachieved potential with existing technology Extension Gap= 31-75% Research Gap= 25-57% Gap world’s Highest Avg.= 50-83% Strengthening of agricultural extension system Development of HYV varieties resistant to biotic and abiotic stress (use of agricultural biotechnology) Stresses like drought, high temperature, and pest and diseases reduce yields Strengthening seed production and distribution system Inadequate and poor quality seed production: Development of hybrid seeds Formal seed industry produces seed for few varieties of certain crops Production of virus free seed through tissue culture Meets only 40% of yearly seed requirements Development of technologies for organic food production Costly hybrid seed and monopoly of multinationals Development of effective bio-fertilizer Low exploitation of potential in organic farming Search of novel bio-pesticides with improved efficacy, potency, and increased shelf life Increasing costs/use of pesticides/ fertilizers and their adverse effects on health and environment Development of genome maps Low use of agricultural biotechnology and limited capacity in research Strengthening plant genomic research  Lack of bio safety regulations Approval and enforcement of bio safety regulations Insufficient institutional credit Increased supply of institutional credit at
  5. 5. Degradation of Land Resources: Nutrient Mining and Salinity Isues Action /Technologies 1.Mismanagement of plant nutrients and declining soil fertility 2.Unbalanced fertilizer use 3.Slight to moderate salinity/sodicity on Area : 1.83 million Ha Losing: yearly Rs. 21 billion of GDP 4. Tube wells pumping brackish water 70 % tube wells -- adding to salinity 5. Nutrient/fertility status of most of soils unknown Low fertilizer use efficiency, yield, and quality of produce 6. Our agricultural land is facing many problems and some of the major problems are the conversion of arable land into non- agricultural uses, water logging and salinity and land erosion scenarios are the most disastrous of the present day crisis 7. Arable land is a basic and major resource for the production of human food. But it seems that the expansion of human population and human activities are reducing the availability of land, suitable for food production at an alarming rate. Expanding population demands more food on one side and devours agricultural land on the other side, which is a matter of great concern for everyone. 1.Integrated plant nutrient system (IPNS) 2. Gypsum application for treatment of saline / sodic lands 3. Crop and soil nutrient indexing 4. Address the Land Issue – especially land records, titling and judicial reform re. land 5. Focus on improving water use efficiency 6. Better water management through establishment of water associations or other institutional mechanisms – Canal lining – Adoption of water saving technology at farm level 7.
  6. 6. Inefficient Use of Irrigation Water Issues Actions/Technologies 1.Low field level water use efficiency Unleveled fields and traditional irrigation 2.Low overall irrigation efficiency: Overall water losses = 60% Watercourse level = 50% of total losses Canal level = 33% of total losses 3. Deteriorating canal system due to lack of funds for proper O&M Burden on Govt. exchequer 4. The delay in building new water reservoirs in Pakistan has played vicious role in complicating the irrigation problems 1.Using of laser leveling technology 2.Water conserving irrigation technologies 3.Lining of canals and water channels 4.Studies on proper water pricing reflecting scarcity of resource 5. Had Pakistan built Kalabagh dam, all the irrigation issues would have been resolved
  7. 7. Low Milk and Meat Yields per Animal Issues Action/technologies 1.Low milk yield: Extension Gap=61% Research gap=52% Gap world’s highest Avg.= 78% 2. Underfed livestock: Feed shortage by 30-40% 3.Infectious diseases outbreaks Vaccination only 10% 4. Large number of non-descript breed: 70% cattle 5.Low use of artificial insemination Only 10% 6. Lack of breeds for mutton and beef production 1.Improvement of local breeds of buffalo and cows 2. Vaccine development 3.Improvement of non descript breeds through artificial insemination 4. Strengthening/up gradation of semen production units 5. Development of beef and mutton breeds 6. Promotion of balanced feed for milk production 7.Fodder and range land management
  8. 8. High Post Harvest Losses Issues Action/Technologies 1.High post harvest losses: Range in Fruits/Veg. =12 to 40% Yearly loss: Fruits = 31 billion Vegetables 18 billion 2. Short shelf life of fruit and Vegetable varieties 3.Lack of cold chain infrastructure 4. The sum-total of losses in food grains amount to 1.44 million tonnes valued at Rs.3.13 billion . 5. The total marketing losses in various marketing channels of mango fruit ranged from 12.24 to 14.24 per cent of the produce handled. 6. The causes of losses are many: physical damage during handling and transport, physiological decay, water loss, or sometimes simply because there is a surplus in the marketplace and no buyer can be found. 7. Postharvest handling is the final stage in the process of producing high quality fresh produce. 1.Improvement of post harvest handling technologies 2.Development of storage, cold storage, and transport infrastructure 3.Improving shelf life of fruits & vegetables 4. The shelf-life of the fruits was extended when these were stored in pyramidal structures. 5. A well coordinated R&D programme on produce handling and marketing atnational level is, therefore, essentially required. 6. Dehydration of vegetables and fruits is to be introduced as cottage industry. 7. For country like Pakistan low cost, economically feasible technology such ason- farm low cost storage (structures) hydrocooling, MAP, CA storage andwaxing/skin coatings seems to be appropriate. 8. . Postharvest processes include the integrated functions of harvesting, cleaning, grading, cooling, storing, packaging,
  9. 9. Lack of Proper Quality Control System Issues Action/technologies 1.Lack of proper quality control system 2. Inadequate number of quality testing labs 1.Establishment of 16 quality testing and residue testing labs
  10. 10. Weak National Agricultural Research System Issues Action /Technologies 1.Poorly funded agricultural research Research budget = 0.2 % of Agri. GDP Ideal = 1.5 % of Agri. GDP 2. Share of Agri. in PSDP declined from 12.8 % in 1980-81 to 0.13 % in 2001-02. Currently 0.94 % 3.High Establishment Expenditures: Est. to Non-Est. Expenditure ratio = 85:15 Ideal = 60:40 4.Small number of Ph D scientists unevenly distributed Ph D scientists only 10% mostly in Universities and federal institutions 5.Lack of lab equipment and library facilities 6.Poor service structure and lack of incentives 1.Human Resource Development for NARS 2.Access to digital library facilities 3. Upgrading of laboratory facilities 4. Service structure for NARS scientists similar to PAEC 5.
  11. 11. Milk Processing Issues Actions/Technologies 1.Low proportion of milk production processed Processing = only 2% 2.High price of processed milk depress demand 3. Most of milk production not marketed due to lack of chilling facilities 4.Large unutilized processing capacity Out of 38 major plants only 13 operate Out of 10 powder milk plants 6 operate at 50% capacity 5.High collection, processing, and packaging cost 6. Limited product diversification and low extraction of byproducts 1.Milk chilling units at village level and use of LPS for milk preservation in remote areas 2. Promotion of demand for processed milk and powder milk 3.Product diversification 4. Development of packaging capacity
  12. 12. Fruit and Vegetables Processing Issues Action/technologies 1.Lack of certified nurseries and poor quality planting materials 2. Heterogeneous quality of horticultural produce 3. Limited grading and faulty packaging 4.High cost of processed products 5. Limited cold storage capacity 1. Establishment of certification system for nursery plants 2. Establishment of irradiation plants 3. Development of grading and packaging capacity 4.Development of cold chain
  13. 13. Turbulent teens . Cultivating Knowledge Intensive Agriculture • Must Haves • Global outreach efforts to train farmers for knowledge driven 21st Century Green Revolution . • More Government involves in Agriculture Research • Future rate of yield grains at or above recent historical levels. • New crop varieties and enhancement solutions developed for extreme climate conditions.
  14. 14. Agriculture Vision 2050 • AV for 2050 , Enough Food, water and biofuel through a new green revolution . • A 21st Century Vision of the green revolution has helped the larger 2050 population meets its nutrition needs , improved agriculture practices, water efficiency, new crop varities and new technologies including biotechnologies, have allowed a doubling of agricultural output without associated increases in the amount of land or water used .
  15. 15. The different steps of the Vision 2050 project
  16. 16. Growth and degradation 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Populationinmillions Urban - Less developed Rural - Less developed Urban - More developed Rural - More developed 0 C hinaUnited States India Brazil M exico Russia Indonesia JapanU nited Kingdom G erm any 10,000 20,000 30,000 GDP2006US$bn 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 0 2005 2030 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 400 million 1.2 billion Percentofglobalpopulation Sub-SaharanAfrica South Asia MiddleEast and North Africa Latin Americaand the Caribbean Europe and CentralAsia East Asia and the Global economic power is shifting Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050 The world po pulation is increasingly urban Global population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050 The glo bal midd le class is rapidly expanding Population in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parit y) 1970 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 eq Rest of the world BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) OECD 0 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Millions of people 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Severe Medium Low No 0% 2000 Forecastpost-peakdeclinerate 2005 Campbell LBST Peak Oil Consulting Uppsala Total BGR Shell Miller Meling OPEC IEA USEIA 2010 2015 2020 2025 Forecast date of peak 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Greenho use ga s emissions keep rising GHG emissions by regions Environmental degra dation jeopardizes peo ple’s quality of life People living in areas of water stress by level of stress The world could be runn ing out of some resources Global suppl y forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverable resources of conventional oil, date of peak produ ction and the post-peak aggregate decline rate Growth Degradation
  17. 17. Growth: The world population is increasingly urban 0  1,000  2,000  3,000  4,000  5,000  6,000  7,000  8,000  9,000  10,000  1950  1960  1970  1980  1990  2000  2010  2020  2030  2040  2050  Population in millions  Urban - Less developed  Rural - Less developed  Urban - More developed  Global population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050 Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
  18. 18. Growth: The world population is increasingly urban Between now and 2050 the global population is expected to increase from 6.9 billion to more than 9 billion, with 98% of this growth happening in cities and in the developing and emerging world
  19. 19. 0 ChinaUnited States India Brazil M exico Russia Indonesia JapanUnited Kingdom G erm any 10,000 20,000 30,000 GDP2006US$bn 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Growth: Global economic power is shifting Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond, 2007
  20. 20. Growth: Global economic power is shifting Most of the economic growth will happen in developing or emerging economies
  21. 21. Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding Population in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parity) Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 2007 0 2005 2030 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 400 million 1.2 billion Percentofglobalpopulation Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe and Central Asia East Asia and the
  22. 22. Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding • Many people in the developing and emerging world will be moving up the economic ladder toward a middle class standard of living consuming many more resources per capita. • Transition: The governance and policy responses to manage this growth often happen in silos and limited by short-term, localized political pressures. Continuing to invest in polluting or energy-inefficient types of infrastructure and opting for high-footprint consumer lifestyle preferences are examples of choices that are often characterized by inertia due to short- term goals and self interest.
  23. 23. Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 World averagebiocapacity per personin 2006 World averagebiocapacity per personin 1961 UNDPthresholdforhighhumandevelopment High human development within the Earth’slimits 2 4 6 8 10 12 EcologicalFootprint(globalhectaresperperson) United Nations Human Development Index Asiancountries Europeancountries Latin American and Caribbean countries North American countries Oceaniancountries Meeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009 2 4 6 8 10 12 EcologicalFootprint(globalhectaresperperson) African countries Asiancountries Europeancountries Latin American and Caribbean countries North American countries Oceaniancountries
  24. 24. Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet • This chart sums up the challenge of sustainable development: meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet. It is a snapshot showing how different countries perform according to the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) and Global Footprint Network’s Ecological Footprint. In countries to the left of the vertical line marking a score of less than 0.8 on the HDI, a high level of development, as defined by UNDP, has not been attained. Countries above the horizontal dotted line and to the right of the vertical line have achieved a high level of development but place more demand on nature than could be sustained if everyone in the world lived this way. In order to move toward a sustainable future the world will need to address all dimensions of this chart – the concepts of success and progress, the biocapacity available per person, as well as helping countries either improve their levels of development or reduce their ecological impact (several countries face both challenges).
  25. 25. Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding About 800 million people will join the middle class in low and middle income countries
  26. 26. Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources 0% 2000 Forecastpost-peakdeclinerate 2005 Campbell LBST Peak Oil Consulting Uppsala Total BGR Shell Miller Meling OPEC IEA USEIA 2010 2015 2020 2025 Forecast date of peak 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Global supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverable resources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peak aggregate decline rate Source: UKERC, The Global Oil Depletion Report, 2009
  27. 27. Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources • The world could be running out of some resources. Even though the different forecasts differ on when oil production will peak and decrease, they all confirm that this will happen quite soon.
  28. 28. Nine billion people living well, within the limits of the planet • Diversity and interdependence • A different economic reality • Multi-partner governance • In markets: Innovating and deploying solutions • Dealing with climate change • An evolved workplace and evolved employers
  29. 29. TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as- usual
  30. 30. A Path Way • A pathway is a set of descriptions that illustrates the transition to a certain scenario, in this case Vision 2050. This pathway is composed of nine elements that demonstrate that behavior change and social innovation are as crucial as better solutions and technological innovation. • Although distinct, the elements also show the interconnectedness of issues such as water, food and energy – relationships that must be considered in an integrated and holistic way, with tradeoffs that must be understood and addressed. • The pathway and its elements neither prescribe nor predict, but are plausible stories the companies have created by “backcasting”, working back from the vision for 2050 and identifying the changes needed to reach it
  31. 31. People’s values Vision for 2050 “One World – People and Planet” lifestyles Turbulent teens Understanding and encouraging change through cooperation Transformation time Sustainable living becomes mainstream Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 (from GGDC, CSLS, GSS/Eurobarometer) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 GDP per capita Economic well-being Happiness Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA (index: 1980 = 100) Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA (Index: 1980=100) Happiness does not completely depend on GDP
  32. 32. Population in 2050 • By 2050, the world population is expected to grow by 40 per cent (from 6.5 to 9.1 billion) and allowing for increased incomes and changes in diet, global demand for food, feed and fibre is expected to grow by 50 per cent by 2030 and 70 per cent by 2050 (Bruinsma 2009). There are a wide range of estimates of demand and supply, but most consider that although demand can be met, some intervention will be required to ensure that supply keeps up and thus prices rises are prevented. More will be required to reduce poverty and move towards the FAO's stated aim of ending world hunger by 2050.
  33. 33. Human development Vision for 2050 Basic needs of all are met Turbulent teens Building trust, entrepreneurialism, inclusiveness Transformation time Ecosystems and enterprises help create value 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1950 1975 Lifeexpectancy(years) 2000 2025 2050 Less developed regions - least developed countries (Male) More developed regions (Male) Less developed regions - least developed countries (Female) More developed regions (Female) Life expectancy by region - 1950-2050 Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008 Life expectancy by region – 1950-2050 People are living longer
  34. 34. Economy Vision for 2050 True value, true costs, true profits Turbulent teens Redefining progress Transformation time True values help drive inclusive markets Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 What GDP does and does not measure Happiness Living conditions Economic well-being GDP genetics family friends work satisfaction net investment communities environment health (inequality) education leisure wealth non-market activity (unemployment) (insecurity) consumption (brackets indicate negative impact) depreciation net income going to foreigners regrettables Reconsidering success and progress
  35. 35. Agriculture Vision for 2050 Enough food, water and biofuels through a new Green Revolution Turbulent teens Cultivating knowledge- intensive agriculture Transformation time Growth in global trade, crop yield and carbon management Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Realising the Potential of Africa’s Youth, 2009 (FAOSTAT) Cereal yield by region – 1960-2010 Tonnesperhectare 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Africa Southern Asia Europe Africa’s yield growth has lagged behind other regions
  36. 36. Agriculture is a Major Producer of GHGs Crop Systems Paddy Rice 37Livestock Systems
  37. 37. Cereal Demand and 2050 • Tweeten & Thompson (2008) estimate that cereal demand will grow at 1.17 per cent per annum, giving an increase of 79 per cent by 2050. With linear yield growth projected to be 1.07 per cent per annum, giving 71 per cent more output implies excess demand at current prices and they estimate that real prices would rise by 44 per cent.
  38. 38. In Plant Agriculture Promote (a) improved nutrition for the poor, especially the vulnerable, including through micronutrient supplementation, fortification of staples, and the use of home gardens; (b) small-scale, one-season extending dams as generally more prudent than large irrigation schemes; (c) protection for low-lying deltaic rice-production areas highly vulnerable to sealevel rise; (d) disease-resistant and drought-proofed seeds; (e) crop storage, farm-to-market transport, training, and extension; (f) dissemination of satellite information on field soil fertility, moisture content, and disease status (e.g., Rapid Eye, EADS, Astrium); (g) increased biogas capture from household pigs and poultry, and nitrous oxide capture from chemical fertilizers; (h) fertilizers that do not emit N2O, with revision of procurement rules to foster such fertilizers; and (i) no-till Conservation Agriculture in which seeds are drilled directly into the ground through vegetative cover. Provide assistance to small-holder farmers as one of the most effective ways to meet local needs, eliminate hunger, and reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions from transportation. Commission GHG emissions accounting for all relevant work.
  39. 39. In the Livestock Sector • Recognize that if poor or rich livestock producers are unwilling to pursue alternative livelihoods, then they will have no choice but to manage both the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods and the high level of GHGs attributable to their animals. Governments should then work with the FAO to provide assistance, such as retraining and payments for land and animals, to support both small and large producers as they face inevitable changes. • Support efforts underway to clarify the amount of GHG emissions attributable to the lifecycle and supply chain of livestock products – particularly the validity of the estimate of at least 51% of anthropogenic GHG emissions attributable to livestock products published in World Watch. One key aspect to be clarified would be reasonable measures of the biomass of livestock raised worldwide. Livestock’s Long Shadow uses a population of 21.7 billion per annum, while elsewhere the FAO reported a population of 56 billion livestock in 2007. • Recognize that while confirmation of the amount of GHGs attributable to livestock awaits, it is already clear that reforestation is a top priority. So the FAO should work with governments to implement reforestation on a large scale. A high priority is to map areas most ripe for reforestation, on technical and economic bases; and to create a framework for ongoing tracking of GHGs from both livestock products and alternatives, across the world. • Partner with leading companies in the food industry to promote the production and marketing of better alternatives to livestock products.
  40. 40. NGO Role In Agriculture • NGOs have facilitated capacity-building for farmers in agricultural innovation, with particular success in economically and ecologically marginal communities (see, for example, World Neighbors and OXFAM). Numerous effective community knowledge-sharing mechanisms have developed, from cross-visits to video documentation to farmer monitoring networks (see Scherr et al. 2008). • But there has been little systematic support for these farmer-led knowledgegeneration-and-sharing systems, especially for food-insecure farmers. Formal systems are not • linked to these informal systems. And the latter are poorly linked to formal research and extension programs, although they should be quite complementary. In addition, there are minimal financial resources through loans or grants available to support farmer testing and adaptation of innovations.
  41. 41. Forests Vision for 2050 Recovery and regeneration Turbulent teens Carbon incentives drive progress Transformation time Growing momentum for forest protection and efficient production Source: FAO, State of the World’s Forests 2009, 2009 Consumption of industrial roundwood by region – 1965-2030 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1965 1990 2005 2020 2030 millionsm3 North America Europe Asia and Latin America Africa Western and Central Asia Increasing consumption of industrial roundwood
  42. 42. Forests Promote (a) bans on industrial logging; (b) conservation of all old-growth forests, peatlands and mangroves; (c) accelerated regeneration of areas used for grazing livestock and feed production, and other degraded lands back to forest; (d) development of tree plantations on suitable non-forested lands; (e) compensation to forest-dwellers for maintaining forests; and (f) halting FAO’s carbon credit assistance where forest is cut for oil palm, livestock grazing, or feed production. • Provide guidance (including online training materials) to help forest owners and member nations obtain carbon credits, but only in the very best of carbon funds. • Campaign to prevent and extinguish forest fires and other wildfires.• Support groups promoting a global GHG tax as a strong means to convert today’s agriculture to a more sustainable path. • Promote only the most energy- and water-efficient biofuels that entail no deforestation, particularly of mangroves, or diversion of crops used for human food, such as maize.
  43. 43. Energy and power Vision for 2050 Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon Turbulent teens Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy Transformation time Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, © OECD/IEA 2008 Average annual power generation – capacity additions – 2010-2050 0 10 20 30 GW per year 40 50 60 Wind-o Wind- Gas- Coal- 30 - 35 CCS plants (500 MW) 1 - 20 CCS plants (500 MW) 24 - 32 nuclear plants (1,000 MW) 1/5 of Canada's hydropowercapacity 30 - 100 biomass plants (50 MW) 2,900 - 14,000 wind turbines (4 MW) 775 - 3,750 wind turbines (4 MW) 50 - 130 geothermal units (100 MW) 115 - 215 million m² solar panels 45 - 80 CSP plants (250 MW) Huge capacity additions needed to deliver the new energy mix
  44. 44. Energy and power Vision for 2050 Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon Turbulent teens Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy Transformation time Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, © OECD/IEA 2009 World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 scenario A new energy mix to reduce CO2 emissions
  45. 45. Buildings Vision for 2050 Close to zero net energy buildings Turbulent teens Turning the market toward energy efficiency Transformation time Smarter buildings, wiser users Source: WBCSD, Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2008 Players and practices in the building market System integration is key to achieving energy efficiency in buildings
  46. 46. Mobility Vision for 2050 Universal access to safe and low- impact mobility Turbulent teens A holistic approach improves overall transport Transformation time Towards alternative drivetrains and fuels
  47. 47. Materials Vision for 2050 Not a particle of waste Turbulent teens Doing more with less Transformation time Closing the loop Source: WBCSD An alternative material life cycle Manufacturer Long use Reuseof products Reuseof parts Closed loop materials recycling Open loop materials recycling Landfill User Eliminating waste by closing the material loop
  48. 48. The risks to achieving Vision 2050 Risks in the elements of the pathway •People’s values: Can we all agree? •Economy: Swimming against the tide of mainstream economics •Agriculture: Politics, water shortages could uproot the Green Revolution •Forests: Is it too late already? •Energy: Progress may be victim to power struggles •Buildings: In a bad market incentives could fall •Mobility: Will not become sustainable without a systemic approach •Materials: Recycling can be expensive Wild cards that could take the world off the Vision 2050 track •New understanding of how the Earth works •A World of new ideological blocs, failing states or resources war •Disagreement on valuing the environment •Unintended consequences of new technologies •Extended economic recessions or economic depression •Natural disasters
  49. 49. Economic estimates: Considerable opportunities Sectors An n ual value in 2050 (US$ trillion at con stant 2008 p rices: m id -p oints w ith ran g es sh ow n in b rackets) % of p rojected w orld GD P in 2050 Energy 2.0 (1.0-3.0) 1.0 (0.5-1.5) Forestry 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15) Agriculture and food 1.2 (0.6-1.8) 0.6 (0.3-0.9) Water 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15) Metals 0.5 (0.2-0.7) 0.2 (0.1-0.3) Total: Natural resources 4.1 (2.0 -6.1) 2.0 (1.0 -3.0) Health and education 2.1 (0.8-3.5) 1.0 (0.5-1.5) Total 6. Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential additional sustainability related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050
  50. 50. Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps
  51. 51. Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps • To better understand the opportunities and what it takes to realize them, the project has developed a high level overview of the spaces in which opportunities exist. This opportunity map is also an important tool for strategic thinking, dialogue and collaboration. It can be used between management teams and the board, between executives and employees and as a challenge for innovation. • With the population growing by 30 % between now and 2050 and nearly 70% percent of people expected to be living in urban areas it is clear that building and maintaining cities, infrastructure and livelihoods present opportunity for investments and opportunities. Improving bio capacity and managing ecosystems will also provide rich-ground for many businesses. • It is also clear that different partnerships are needed to make these opportunities happen. • Looking at water as an example: • According to a recent McKinsey report, by 2030 global water requirements could be 40 percent above current accessible, reliable supply. India’s annual water demand in 2030 will be 1,500 cubic km against the likely availability of 744 cubic km. However, the report forecasts that India’s annual water input through rainfall will be 3,840 cubic km. In short, double the water needed will be potentially available but would have to be tapped, stored and supplied to bridge the water deficit. • Massive investments in integrated and smart water management systems will be needed to plug this gap. This will require public-private partnerships in urban development, cross-sector partnerships in solution development, demand-side efficiency and new financing mechanisms. • To help much of this change happen represents a business idea for us. An asset manager – developing financing solutions.
  52. 52. Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities 0 10 US$ trillions 30 Ports and airports Roads and railways Energy Water Investment requirements for urban infrastructure up to 2030 Source: Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy+Business, n°46, 2007 (from Booz Allen Hamilton, Global Infrastructure Partners, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Boeing, Drewry Shipping Consultants, U.S. Department of Transportation)
  53. 53. Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities Estimates suggest that by 2030 US$ 40 trillion will need to be invested in urban infrastructure worlwide
  54. 54. Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities • More people now live in cities than in rural areas, and this urbanization trend is expected to continue, most notably • in the emerging and developing world. Urbanization will provide opportunities for business around the globe but particularly as developing countries transition from agri- centered economies to product and service economies. This figure suggests that by 2030 US$ 40 trillion will need to be invested in urban infrastructure worldwide.
  55. 55. Health Increased access to better healthcare and prevention will have positive effects on the economy and businesses
  56. 56. The Health Challenge • Deficiencies in micro- nutrients (especially vitamin A, iodine and iron) are widespread – 2 billion suffered from micronutrient deficiencies in 2009 • Millions die from diseases preventable by vaccines • Obesity • Biotechnology to: – Improve Nutrition – Deliver Vaccines – Eliminate allergens
  57. 57. Products and services for aging populations 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1950 2000 2050 Population aged 65+ Population aged 15-64 Population aged 0-14 The world is aging The world population by age cohort – 1950-2050 Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
  58. 58. Products and services for aging populations By 2020 people aged 65 and above will account for about one-fifth of the total global population Each month around 1.9 million people in the world will join the ranks of the over 65s
  59. 59. Products and services for aging populations • By 2020 people aged 65 and above will account for about one-fifth of the total global population. Each month around 1.9 million people in the world will join the ranks of the over 65s. Although the story in the developing • world will still largely be one of youth, some emerging populations will age considerably as their economies develop and offer better healthcare and life services. • These people will require specialized products and services. For instance, the greater proportion of aging people in the population should drive demand for a new generation of green housing and assisted living in developed countries. • Solutions for improved mobility will also be developed, facilitated by robot- assisted mobility, motorized scooters, and adapted vehicles and public transport developed through public-private partnerships.
  60. 60. Building and managing complex coalitions Non- governmental organizations (NGOs) Traditional development (supply-side bias) Market-based approach (demand-side bias) Economic Development Social Development High High Low Low New partnership paradigm Complex coalition structures Private sector Building complex coalitions for social and economic development Source: Accenture, Development Collaboration, None of our Business? 2009
  61. 61. Building and managing complex coalitions • As the need for greater collaboration increases among the public and private sectors, there will be growing • demand for those able to build and manage complex coalitions made up of a number of different actors and areas • of expertise – public, private, civil and academic sector individuals and organizations. These new structures • will blend the best of each sector’s knowledge, assets and capabilities in seamless partnerships to tackle many • of the challenges we face. These partnerships will form at local, regional, national, and international levels, and will grow not only in size but also in depth, strength and impact. They will be far more strategic and pervasive than the one-off, tactical relationships we have witnessed to date and as a result of the different development priorities of those involved, more likely to deliver both economic and social improvements.
  62. 62. Conclusion and way forward
  63. 63. Urgent action is needed • Complex systems will provide the foundation • Business cannot do it alone • The journey begins now…
  64. 64. Agricultural Extension • Agricultural extension was once known as the application of scientific research, knowledge, and technologies to improve agricultural practices through farmer education. • The field of extension now encompasses a wider range of communication and learning theories and activities (organized for the benefit of rural people) by professionals from different disciplines. There is no widely accepted definition of agricultural extension, but to see how this field has evolved over the past 50+ years.
  65. 65. Extension Education • During the past century, extension education developed into a discipline or field of study with its own philosophy, objectives, methods, and techniques that should be understood and used by most extension workers if they are to be effective in serving the needs of all farmers, especially small-scale and women farmers. The basic principles, methods, and techniques of extension education are applicable to all fields within agricultural and rural development, including crop, livestock, fisheries, and other rural enterprises as well as rural youth programs and home economics/science, including family health, hygiene, and nutrition. Extension education primarily focuses on the teaching-learning methods needed to train and to provide small-scale and women farmers with the necessary skills, knowledge, and information they will need to increase their farm income and thereby improve the livelihoods of their rural families.
  66. 66. Extension • The term extension was first used to describe adult education programs in England during the second half of the nineteenth century (starting in 1867); these programs helped extend the work of universities beyond the campus and into neighboring communities. In the early twentieth century, when this extension function was transferred to the Ministry of Agriculture, these activities were renamed as advisory services. The term extension was adopted in the United States during the late nineteenth century and integrated into the Land Grant Universities as a central function of these institutions; there nonformal educational services continue to the present. a number of other terms are used in different. : • Dutch: Voorlichting (“lighting the path”) • German: Beratung (“advisory work”) • French: Vulgarisation (“simplification”) • Spanish: Capacitación (“improving skills”) • Thai, Lao: Song-Suem (“to promote”) • Persian: Tarvij & Gostaresh (“to promote and to extend”)
  67. 67. Farmer Field Schools (FFS) • Farmer Field Schools consist of groups of people with a common interest who get together on a regular basis to study the “how and why” of a particular topic, such as integrated pest management (IPM). Farmer Field Schools are comparable to programs such as study circles or specialized human resource development (HRD) programs. • Farmer Field Schools are particularly adapted to “field study,” where specific hands-on management skills and conceptual understanding are required. Originally, the FFS methodology was developed by the FAO to transfer IPM technologies to farmers in • Indonesia. More recently, these schools are being used to both promote the development of farmer organizations (social capital) and to pursue new technologies or enterprises (HRD) that will increase farm income
  68. 68. In-Service Training • In-service training of agricultural extension workers has received little or no attention from either governments or donors in recent years. Because most agricultural extension systems continue to be highly resource constrained because of declining budget allocations, there are few, if any, resources available to train current extension staff in up-to-date agricultural technologies or farming systems, especially for highvalue crops and products or in using more participatory extension methods. • One immediate opportunity to help transform most agricultural extension systems would be substantial investments in human resource development (HRD) for extension field staff. Also, faculty and staff of schools of agriculture and agricultural universities will have to be transformed and updated.
  69. 69. Market-Driven Extension (MDE) • Market-driven extension is a relatively new concept in which the focus of a technology transfer-driven agricultural extension system shifts 180 degrees—or from “research” to the “market,” especially for high-value crops, livestock, fisheries, or other products. • This change in focus is consistent with the concept of a market-driven agricultural innovation system (AIS), because market opportunities and access depend in part on the location of each farm (or groups of farmers), farm size (to produce specific products), and many other factors, such as agro-ecological conditions, transportation infrastructure, available labor, and possibly access to other production resources, such as irrigation, greenhouses, and so on. Therefore, the decision by groups of farmers to supply specific markets with different high-value crops or products will depend in large part on the relative size of accessible markets for particular products and the strategic advantage of producer groups to supply these markets with high-value crops or products.
  70. 70. Participatory Extension • The participatory extension paradigm is essentially a combination of technology transfer, advisory services, and human resources development, and involves two key elements. The first element addresses how extension systems are organized and emphasizes the fact that all types of farmers, especially small-scale and women farmers, must play an important role in setting extension priorities and shaping extension programs. By so doing, farmers will take more “ownership” over these ongoing extension programs and operations. The second key element of the participatory extension approach generally encompasses more participatory extension methods, such as experiential learning and farmer-to-farmer exchanges. It emphasizes that knowledge is gained through interactive processes that include extension field staff, • private-sector firms, NGOs, and/or innovative and progressive farmers within local or nearby communities. Participants are expected to make their own decisions, especially about how they will intensify and/or diversify their farming systems.
  71. 71. Preservice Training • Preservice training of agricultural extension workers has been given limited attention and resources in most developing countries since the 1990s. In most countries, field extension workers obtain a two- or three- year diploma from a school of agriculture, which is normally a terminal educational qualification. These diploma-level programs typically teach a cross section of agricultural courses, including crop and livestock production, plus basic skills in extension methods using the “diffusion of innovations” framework, which primarily focuses on technology transfer to larger, commercial farmers. In most cases, the educational content of both agricultural and extension courses is grossly out of date, if these agricultural extension systems are expected to become more decentralized, participatory (farmer led), and market driven in improving rural livelihoods. To do so, however, the skills and knowledge of faculty and staff at schools of agriculture and agricultural universities will need to be updated in course content and teaching methods, as well as being provided with up-to-date, relevant teaching materials (see Zinnah, Steele, and Mattocks 1998)
  72. 72. Strategic Research and Extension Plan (SREP) •Formulating a strategic research and extension plan involves identifying the farming systems and the resource base of farmers within a target area, as well as identifying the successes and failures of innovative farmers. It also involves the identification of problems and needs of farmers by using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) techniques and then analyzing all of this information using a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. In addition to farmer information, the SWOT nalysis examines other important types of agricultural information, including • (1) the different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within the district (e.g., soil type/conditions; •rainfall patterns; and irrigation water, including availability and cost), •(2) transportation infrastructure, and • (3) available markets for all types of staple and high-value food •crops/products. The analysis must consider all of this information within a global information system (GIS) framework in determining the most feasible economic opportunities for different categories of farm households within each AEZ of the district. The output of the SWOT analysis will be a preliminary SREP that is then reviewed, modified, and eventually approved by a cross section of agricultural community representatives, consisting of all types of farmers (including women •farmers), rural banks, input supply firms, and agricultural product buyers.
  73. 73. Technology Transfer • Technology transfer is the process of disseminating new technologies and other practical applications that largely result from research and development (R&D) efforts in different fields of agriculture. In general, these technologies include • (1) genetic improvement in the form of improved crop varieties/hybrids and livestock breeds; • (2) improved production practices, including soil fertility and animal nutrition; • (3) improved plant protection and animal health practices; • (4) mechanical technologies that will improve labor efficiency and other management practices; and • (5) sustainable natural resource management practices, such as drip irrigation, water harvesting, integrated pest management, and so forth— in other words, technologies that all types of agricultural producers will need in order to increase agricultural productivity and farm incomes.
  74. 74. Agricultural Technologies • Until recently, agricultural technologies have largely been created and disseminated by public research institutions. However, during the past 50 years, the private sector has played an increasingly important role in producing and selling proprietary technologies in the form of production inputs, such as hybrid seed, pesticides, and mechanical technologies. Over the past two decades, biotechnologies have developed rapidly, especially as the agricultural economy has become more globalized and liberalized. • This development has boosted private investment in agricultural research and the • transfer of these technologies, which is expanding the influence of national and multinational corporations in supplying new technologies, especially to commercial farmers. At the same time, the public sector still has an important role to play in providing oversight of these new technologies; conducting research to fill the important technology gaps not being addressed by private-sector firms, especially for small and marginal farmers; and in continuing to develop and transfer sustainable natural resources practices to all types of farmers.
  75. 75. Origin and Development of Agricultural Extension and Advisory Systems • The dissemination and use of improved agricultural technology and management practices can be traced back thousands of years in different parts of the world, including China, Mesopotamia, Egypt, and even in the Americas. The origins of public- or government-funded extension and advisory systems can be traced back to Ireland and the United Kingdom during the middle of • the nineteenth century. During the potato famine in Ireland (1845–1851), agricultural advisors helped Irish potato farmers diversify into different food • crops. Various European and North American governments observed this • development, and “traveling instructors” started being used in the second half • of the nineteenth century by many countries. • The term extension itself was first used to describe adult education programs • organized by Oxford and Cambridge universities in England starting in 1867; • these educational programs helped extend the work of universities beyond • the campus and into the neighboring communities. This term was later • formally adopted in the United States in conjunction with the land grant • universities that were originally established as teaching institutions during the • 1860s. Research activities were added in 1887, and extension activities were • started in the 1890s and then formally added in 1914 as part of each university’s • official mandate.
  76. 76. The Food Challenge • .93 billion people undernourished worldwide in 2009 • World population projected to surpass 9 billion people by 2050 • Food production must double by 2050 to meet demands
  77. 77. The Energy Challenge • Develop plants to produce biomass more efficiently • Plants that produce cellulose that is easier to process • Adapt microbial enzymes and metabolic pathways for the optimal conversion of cellulose into fuel
  78. 78. The Environment Challenge • Climate Change – Monitoring and modeling: GRACEnet – Research to Mitigate and Adapt agriculture – Making agriculture “climate neutral” • Water Security • Sustainability • Biotechnology to adapt plants and animals
  79. 79. Agriculture is a Major Producer of GHGs Crop Systems Paddy Rice 80Livestock Systems
  80. 80. Collaboration is Essential • Improve efficiency of food production – Drought/heat/salinity tolerance – H2O and N-use efficiencies – Increasing nutritional value of crops and animals • Climate change mitigation – Production practices for maximizing C sequestration rate – Practices for minimizing net GHG emission • Biotechnology – Production, protection, – Nutrition, food safety
  81. 81. • Most popular vegetable in India after potato • Meaty texture, so staple in vegetarian diets • 25 calories per serving, with no fat! Bt brinjal Common Vegetable
  82. 82. • Most popular vegetable in India after potato • Meaty texture, so staple in vegetarian diets • 25 calories per serving, with no fat! Bt brinjal Common Vegetable
  83. 83. 25 - 80 rounds of pesticides sprayed on brinjal crop during each growing season
  84. 84. Cash benefit of Rs 16,000-19,000 per acre and Rs 2,000 crore to our nation Non-Bt Non-Bt Benefits to farmers Bt
  85. 85. The risks and challenges • The ability of the global food and agricultural system to meet future demand for food, feed • and fibre could be severely limited by a number of risks and challenges. The most important • risk is that hunger and malnutrition could persist or even continue to rise in spite of food • supplies that are sufficient at aggregate levels. Another increasingly worrisome challenge is • climate change, affecting developing countries disproportionately. A third challenge that has • been emerging with the rise in energy prices is a rapid increase in the use of agricultural • feedstock for biofuels, causing additional scarcity on markets for food and feed.
  86. 86. World watch hopes this report will: • • Encourage increased investment in agriculture from donor agencies, governments, private • investors, and new potential donor communities; • • Increase awareness about how investing in agriculture is the single most effective way of • reducing hunger and poverty around the world; • • Encourage policymakers, agribusiness, farmers, and donors to include environmental • sustainability criteria in their decision-making and lending practices; and • • Bring greater exposure to effective projects and innovations that currently enjoy little • exposure, generating a wider audience for consideration.
  87. 87. World Watch continued • Effective institutions are a particular feature of good governance. They are essential to • ensure that agriculture and rural areas can serve sustainable development and contribute to • food security for all. Priority will need to be given to institutional reforms that ensure that all • members of society, rural and urban, men and women, producers and consumers throughout • the food chain, including the vulnerable and food insecure, are adequately organized and • represented in the policy process. In many countries, rural people, in particular farmers and 35 • farm workers and their families, are currently not able to play an effective role in the political • process, nor do they receive the support and incentives they need at all stages in the value • chain.
  88. 88. The challenge for technology • The challenge for technology is to reverse this decline, since a continuous linear increase in • yields at a global level following the pattern established over the past five decades will not be • sufficient to meet food needs. Although investment in agricultural R&D continues to be one • of the most productive investments, with rates of return between 30 and 75 percent, it has • been neglected in most low income countries. Currently, agricultural R&D in developing • countries is dominated by the public sector, so that initially additional investment will have to • come from government budgets. Increasing private sector investment will require addressing • issues of intellectual property rights while ensuring that a balance is struck so that access of • smallholder farmers to new technologies is not reduced.
  89. 89. Challenge for Technology Continued • Hunger can persist in the midst of adequate aggregate supplies because of lacking income • opportunities for the poor and the absence of effective social safety nets. Experience of • countries that have succeeded in reducing hunger and malnutrition shows that economic • growth does not automatically ensure success, the source of growth matters too. Growth • originating in agriculture, in particular the smallholder sector, is at least twice as effective in 3 • benefiting the poorest as growth from non-agriculture sectors. This is not surprising since 75 • percent of the poor in developing countries live in rural areas and their incomes are directly or • indirectly linked to agriculture. The fight against hunger also requires targeted and deliberate • action in the form of comprehensive social services, including food assistance, health and • sanitation, as well as education and training; with a special focus on the most vulnerable.
  90. 90. International Trade • Many countries will continue depending on international trade to ensure their food security. • It is estimated that by 2050 developing countries’ net imports of cereals will more than double • from 135 million metric tonnes in 2008/09 to 300 million in 2050.
  91. 91. A recent study estimates • that continued rapid expansion of biofuel production up to 2050 would lead to the number of • undernourished pre-school children in Africa and South Asia being 3 and 1.7 million higher • than would have been otherwise the case. Therefore, policies promoting the use of foodbased biofuels need to be reconsidered with the aim of reducing the competition between food • and fuel for scarce resources.
  92. 92. Perspective for 2050 • Are current public and private investments sufficient to ensure adequate agricultural production potential, sustainable • use of natural resources, infrastructure for markets, information and communication and • research for technological breakthroughs for the future? Will resources, new technologies and • supporting services be available to the people who will need them most - the poor? What • needs to be undertaken to help agriculture meet the challenges of climate change and growing • energy scarcity
  93. 93. Two conditions were considered essential for • success in meeting the expected food needs on a sustainable basis. One is increased • investment in research and development for sustained productivity growth, infrastructure • institutional reforms, environmental services and sustainable resource management. The other • is that policies should not simply focus on supply growth, but also on access of the world’s • poor and hungry to the food they need to live active and healthy lives.
  94. 94. Outlook for Food Security towards 2050 • In the following, the key elements of current expert thinking regarding the outlook for food • security towards 2050 will be summarized. The key message from this assessment is that it • will be possible to achieve food security for a world population of 9.1 billion people projected • for that time, provided a number of well specified conditions are met through appropriate • policies.
  95. 95. The changing socio-economic environment • The main socio-economic factors that drive increasing food demand are population growth, increasing urbanization and rising incomes. As regards the first two, population growth and urbanization, there is little uncertainty about the magnitude, nature and regional pattern of their future development. • According to the latest revision of the UN population prospects (medium variant), the world population is projected to grow by 34 percent from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion in 2050. • Compared to the preceding 50 years, population growth rates will slow down considerably. However, coming off a much bigger base, the absolute increase will still be significant, 2.3 billion more humans. Nearly all of this increase in population will take place in the part of the world comprising today’s developing countries. The greatest relative increase, 120 percent, is expected in today’s least developed countries.
  96. 96. The changing socio-economic environment contd • The future of agriculture and the ability of the world food system to ensure food security for a growing world population are closely tied to improved stewardship of natural resources. • Major reforms and investments are needed in all regions to cope with rising scarcity and degradation of land, water and biodiversity and with the added pressures resulting from rising incomes, climate change and energy demands. There is a need to establish the right incentives to harness agriculture’s environmental services to protect watersheds and biodiversity and to ensure food production using sustainable technologies.
  97. 97. The changing socio-economic environment contd • Increased investment, effective regulation and incentives are needed with regard to all three natural resources required for sustainable and stable production growth: land, water, biodiversity. • The aim should be to stop over-exploitation, degradation and pollution, promote efficiency gains and expand overall capacities as appropriate. • Adequate regulation and incentives are also needed to provide the rural population engaging in ecosystem services with win-win solutions to improve the sustainability of ecosystems, mitigate climate change and improve rural incomes.
  98. 98. The changing socio-economic environment contd • The advent of biofuels has the potential of changing all that and causing world demand to be higher, depending on the energy prices and government policies. Without biofuels, much of the increase in cereals demand will be for animal feed to support the growing consumption of livestock products. Meat consumption per caput for example would rise from 41 kg at present to 52 kg in 2050 (from 30 to 44 kg in the developing countries).
  99. 99. Pre-requisites for global food security • Action is needed now to ensure that the required 70 percent increase in food production is achieved, and that every human being has access to adequate food. • First, investment in developing country agriculture has to increase by at least 60 percent over current levels through a combination of higher public investment and better incentives for farmers and the private sector to invest their own resources. • Second, greater priority has to be given to agricultural research, development and extension services in order to achieve the yield and productivity gains that are needed to feed the world in 2050. Third, global markets have to function effectively as food security for an increasing number of countries will depend on international trade and access to a stable supply of imports.
  100. 100. • Enhancing investment in sustainable agricultural production capacity and rural • development • Developing countries, in particular those with a high prevalence of hunger should create • conditions for a gradual increase of investments in primary agriculture, up- and • downstream sectors and rural infrastructure. • A key question confronting governments, farmers and the private sector at large is which • level and composition of investment will be required to achieve the production needed to • meet future demand. Related is the question whether the past and current trend of actual • investment corresponds to those requirements. Several institutions have presented estimates • of actual and required investment in agriculture.
  101. 101. National-Level Actions 1. Involvement of Agricultural Research in particular on wheat and rice which have had falling yields . 2. Agricultural research focusing efforts on major high value crops , labor saving technologies , and both capital intensive farming and small farmers needs. 3. Research into technologies that allows the cellulose portion of plants to be converted into biofuels begin to produce results making them more competitive . 4. A new generation of technologies focusing on managing water, temperature extreme s and saline or acidic soils . 5. Work advances on engineering plant roots to absorb more nitrogen , producing the same yield with at least 50% less fertilizers. 6. The important factors that may contribute to a higher agricultural growth include 7. expansion in cultivated area, enhanced use of water and other agricultural inputs, increase in cropping intensity, technological change, and technical efficiency.
  102. 102. Community-Level Actions 1. Increase the agricultural productivity of food-insecure farmers 2. Improve nutrition for the chronically hungry and vulnerable 3. Reduce the vulnerability of the acutely hungry through productive safety nets 4. Increase incomes and make markets work for the poor 5. Restore and conserve the natural resources essential for food security Non-agricultural interventions are absolutely critical and include such initiatives as maternal and infant feeding centers, clean water to avoid diarrhea and disease, food-for-work programs, nutrition education, micronutrient supplementation, and food subsidies. But these will not be addressed in the SOW11 report which are especially important for smallholder farmers, rural landless, and resource-dependent people.
  103. 103. Technical and institutional innovations Smallholder Productivity • Improved germplasm for an ever-broader group of crops, grasses, trees, etc. • Improved soil management, with more effective fertilizers and organic management • Development of agro forestry systems • Improved water management, including rainwater harvesting at the field, farm, and landscape scales • Farm diversification to supply micronutrients through gardens, fruit trees, domestication of wild foods and medicines • Horticulture
  104. 104. Market Access • Capacity-building for smallholder farmer groups to access and get higher value from markets and link to supply chains into exports and national systems • Mobile phones and other electronic communications applied to agricultural markets • New agricultural input distribution channels to facilitate smallholder access
  105. 105. Natural Resource Restoration and Access • Micro-watershed development, practice, and organization • Low-cost methods of land/resource health assessment for targeting interventions • Tools to facilitate community-based natural resource management • Rotational grazing management for rangeland restoration • Zero-grazing, fallow banks, and fallow reserves • Rainwater harvest at plot, field, and sub-catchment scales
  106. 106. Examples of potential win-win-win-win solutions include: • • Strategies for climate change adaptation that not only enhance resilience and farmer adaptation capacity, but also achieve climate mitigation and protection of other ecosystem services; • • Concern by the food industry for sustainable sources of supply. • • Rise of consumer and institutional interest in eco-certification of foods • • Information technology enabling decentralized knowledge-sharing, innovation systems, and • local control over knowledge systems (Community Knowledge); • • Payments for ecosystem services that pursue biodiversity, livelihood, climate, production • objectives • • Platforms for stakeholder planning and investment in multi-functional landscapes and Sustainable Land Management); in sustainable land management programs that link agricultural productivity, food security, ecosystem services, and beginning climate change; • • Private sector R&D in eco-friendly inputs (e.g., Syngenta improved seed, short-lived • pesticides, precision farm machinery); • • Agroforestry systems that integrate fruit trees for year-round nutrition and child nutrition, • fuel, etc. with crops