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Big Data is Not About the Data! 
Gary King1 
Institute for Quantitative Social Science 
Harvard University 
Talk at the History of Evidence class, Harvard Law School, 11/17/2014 
1GaryKing.org 
1/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
 Output can be highly customized 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
 Output can be highly customized 
 Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
 Output can be highly customized 
 Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) 
v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
 Output can be highly customized 
 Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) 
v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) 
 $2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
 Output can be highly customized 
 Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) 
v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) 
 $2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design 
 Low cost; little infrastructure; mostly human capital needed 
2/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 
 Data: 
 easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 
 becoming commoditized 
 Ignore it  every institution will have more every year 
 With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 
 Where the Value is: the Analytics 
 Output can be highly customized 
 Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) 
v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) 
 $2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design 
 Low cost; little infrastructure; mostly human capital needed 
 Innovative analytics: enormously better than o-the-shelf 
2/10
Examples of what's now possible 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week? 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends   continuous record of phone calls, emails, text 
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends   continuous record of phone calls, emails, text 
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 
 Economic development in developing countries: 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends   continuous record of phone calls, emails, text 
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 
 Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or 
nonexistent governmental statistics 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends   continuous record of phone calls, emails, text 
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 
 Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or 
nonexistent governmental statistics   satellite images of 
human-generated light at night, road networks, other 
infrastructure 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends   continuous record of phone calls, emails, text 
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 
 Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or 
nonexistent governmental statistics   satellite images of 
human-generated light at night, road networks, other 
infrastructure 
 Many, many, more. . . 
3/10
Examples of what's now possible 
 Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews   billions of 
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 
 Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last 
week?   500K people carrying cell phones with 
accelerometers 
 Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best 
friends   continuous record of phone calls, emails, text 
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 
 Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or 
nonexistent governmental statistics   satellite images of 
human-generated light at night, road networks, other 
infrastructure 
 Many, many, more. . . 
 In each: without new analytics, the data are useless 
3/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
 Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is 
quanti
ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are 
applied: analytics wins 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
 Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is 
quanti
ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are 
applied: analytics wins 
 Moral of the story: 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
 Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is 
quanti
ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are 
applied: analytics wins 
 Moral of the story: 
 Fully human is inadequate 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
 Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is 
quanti
ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are 
applied: analytics wins 
 Moral of the story: 
 Fully human is inadequate 
 Fully automated fails 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
 Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is 
quanti
ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are 
applied: analytics wins 
 Moral of the story: 
 Fully human is inadequate 
 Fully automated fails 
 We need computer assisted, human controlled technology 
4/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 
 The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
eld. 
 Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need 
help 
 Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of 
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze 
unstructured text, video, audio as data 
 Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is 
quanti
ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are 
applied: analytics wins 
 Moral of the story: 
 Fully human is inadequate 
 Fully automated fails 
 We need computer assisted, human controlled technology 
 (Technically correct,  politically much easier) 
4/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
 Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
 Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 
 Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
 Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 
 Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) 
 Key to both goals: estimating %'s 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
 Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 
 Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) 
 Key to both goals: estimating %'s 
 Modern Data Analytics: New method led to: 
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
 Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 
 Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) 
 Key to both goals: estimating %'s 
 Modern Data Analytics: New method led to: 
1. 
    
5/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts 
 Classify Deaths without Physicians 
 Examples of Bad Analytics: 
 Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 
 Sentiment analysis via word counts 
 Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 
 Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) 
 Key to both goals: estimating %'s 
 Modern Data Analytics: New method led to: 
1. 
    
2. Worldwide cause-of-death estimates for 
5/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
 Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
 Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 
 New customized analytics we developed: 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
 Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 
 New customized analytics we developed: 
 Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
 Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 
 New customized analytics we developed: 
 Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) 
 More accurate forecasts 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
 Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 
 New customized analytics we developed: 
 Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) 
 More accurate forecasts 
   Trust fund needs  $800 billion more than SSA thought 
6/10
The Solvency of Social Security 
 Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole 
generation out of poverty; extremely popular 
 Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive 
bene
ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 
 SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 
 SSA analytics: 
 Few statistical improvements for 75 years 
 Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 
 Mostly informal (subject to error  political in
uence) 
 Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 
 New customized analytics we developed: 
 Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) 
 More accurate forecasts 
   Trust fund needs  $800 billion more than SSA thought 
 Other applications to insurance industry, public health, etc. 
6/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
ê1 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
ê1 Freedom 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
ê1 Freedom 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
Example Substitution 2: 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
Example Substitution 2: 
Π
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
Example Substitution 2: 
ΠHarmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
Example Substitution 2: 
ΠHarmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
Example Substitution 2: 
ΠHarmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) 
³ù 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye
eld (nonsensical) 
Example Substitution 2: 
ΠHarmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) 
³ù River crab 
7/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 
Example Substitution 1: Homograph 
ê1 Freedom 
î0 Eye

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Big data is not just about the data

  • 1. Big Data is Not About the Data! Gary King1 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University Talk at the History of Evidence class, Harvard Law School, 11/17/2014 1GaryKing.org 1/10
  • 2. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics 2/10
  • 3. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: 2/10
  • 4. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements 2/10
  • 5. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized 2/10
  • 6. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year 2/10
  • 7. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases 2/10
  • 8. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics 2/10
  • 9. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics Output can be highly customized 2/10
  • 10. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics Output can be highly customized Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) 2/10
  • 11. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics Output can be highly customized Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) 2/10
  • 12. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics Output can be highly customized Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) $2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design 2/10
  • 13. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics Output can be highly customized Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) $2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design Low cost; little infrastructure; mostly human capital needed 2/10
  • 14. The Value in Big Data: the Analytics Data: easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements becoming commoditized Ignore it every institution will have more every year With a bit of eort: huge data production increases Where the Value is: the Analytics Output can be highly customized Moore's Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months) v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day) $2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design Low cost; little infrastructure; mostly human capital needed Innovative analytics: enormously better than o-the-shelf 2/10
  • 15. Examples of what's now possible 3/10
  • 16. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: 3/10
  • 17. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews 3/10
  • 18. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) 3/10
  • 19. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: 3/10
  • 20. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 3/10
  • 21. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers 3/10
  • 22. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: 3/10
  • 23. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends 3/10
  • 24. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends continuous record of phone calls, emails, text messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books 3/10
  • 25. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends continuous record of phone calls, emails, text messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books Economic development in developing countries: 3/10
  • 26. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends continuous record of phone calls, emails, text messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or nonexistent governmental statistics 3/10
  • 27. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends continuous record of phone calls, emails, text messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or nonexistent governmental statistics satellite images of human-generated light at night, road networks, other infrastructure 3/10
  • 28. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends continuous record of phone calls, emails, text messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or nonexistent governmental statistics satellite images of human-generated light at night, road networks, other infrastructure Many, many, more. . . 3/10
  • 29. Examples of what's now possible Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews billions of political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days) Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last week? 500K people carrying cell phones with accelerometers Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best friends continuous record of phone calls, emails, text messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or nonexistent governmental statistics satellite images of human-generated light at night, road networks, other infrastructure Many, many, more. . . In each: without new analytics, the data are useless 3/10
  • 30. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide 4/10
  • 31. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 33. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 34. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help 4/10
  • 35. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 36. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data 4/10
  • 37. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 38. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is quanti
  • 39. ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are applied: analytics wins 4/10
  • 40. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 41. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is quanti
  • 42. ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are applied: analytics wins Moral of the story: 4/10
  • 43. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 44. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is quanti
  • 45. ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are applied: analytics wins Moral of the story: Fully human is inadequate 4/10
  • 46. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 47. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is quanti
  • 48. ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are applied: analytics wins Moral of the story: Fully human is inadequate Fully automated fails 4/10
  • 49. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 50. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is quanti
  • 51. ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are applied: analytics wins Moral of the story: Fully human is inadequate Fully automated fails We need computer assisted, human controlled technology 4/10
  • 52. The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide The Quant-Qual divide exists in every
  • 53. eld. Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need help Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze unstructured text, video, audio as data Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is quanti
  • 54. ed, a right answer exists, and good analytics are applied: analytics wins Moral of the story: Fully human is inadequate Fully automated fails We need computer assisted, human controlled technology (Technically correct, politically much easier) 4/10
  • 55. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians 5/10
  • 56. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: 5/10
  • 57. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis 5/10
  • 58. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts 5/10
  • 59. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: 5/10
  • 60. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) 5/10
  • 61. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) Key to both goals: estimating %'s 5/10
  • 62. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) Key to both goals: estimating %'s Modern Data Analytics: New method led to: 5/10
  • 63. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) Key to both goals: estimating %'s Modern Data Analytics: New method led to: 1. 5/10
  • 64. How to Read a Billion Blog Posts Classify Deaths without Physicians Examples of Bad Analytics: Physicians' Verbal Autopsy analysis Sentiment analysis via word counts Dierent problems, Same Analytics Solution: Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts) Key to both goals: estimating %'s Modern Data Analytics: New method led to: 1. 2. Worldwide cause-of-death estimates for 5/10
  • 65. The Solvency of Social Security 6/10
  • 66. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular 6/10
  • 67. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: 6/10
  • 68. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 69. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out 6/10
  • 70. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 71. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years 6/10
  • 72. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 73. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: 6/10
  • 74. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 75. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years 6/10
  • 76. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 77. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) 6/10
  • 78. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 79. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) 6/10
  • 80. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 81. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic 6/10
  • 82. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 83. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic New customized analytics we developed: 6/10
  • 84. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 85. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic New customized analytics we developed: Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) 6/10
  • 86. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 87. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic New customized analytics we developed: Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) More accurate forecasts 6/10
  • 88. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 89. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic New customized analytics we developed: Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) More accurate forecasts Trust fund needs $800 billion more than SSA thought 6/10
  • 90. The Solvency of Social Security Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole generation out of poverty; extremely popular Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive bene
  • 91. ts longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years SSA analytics: Few statistical improvements for 75 years Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity) Mostly informal (subject to error political in uence) Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic New customized analytics we developed: Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality) More accurate forecasts Trust fund needs $800 billion more than SSA thought Other applications to insurance industry, public health, etc. 6/10
  • 92. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight 7/10
  • 93. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: 7/10
  • 94. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: ê1 7/10
  • 95. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: ê1 Freedom 7/10
  • 96. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: ê1 Freedom 7/10
  • 97. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: ê1 Freedom î0 7/10
  • 98. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 100. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 102. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 104. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 106. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 107. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: 7/10
  • 108. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 109. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Œ 7/10
  • 110. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 111. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) 7/10
  • 112. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 113. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) 7/10
  • 114. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 115. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù 7/10
  • 116. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 117. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab 7/10
  • 118. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 119. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) 7/10
  • 120. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 121. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) 7/10
  • 122. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 123. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! 7/10
  • 124. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 125. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! The same task: 7/10
  • 126. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 127. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! The same task: (1) Government and industry analyst's job, 7/10
  • 128. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 129. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! The same task: (1) Government and industry analyst's job, (2) language drift (#BostonBombings #BostonStrong), 7/10
  • 130. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 131. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! The same task: (1) Government and industry analyst's job, (2) language drift (#BostonBombings #BostonStrong), (3) Child pornographers, 7/10
  • 132. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 133. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! The same task: (1) Government and industry analyst's job, (2) language drift (#BostonBombings #BostonStrong), (3) Child pornographers, (4) Look-alike modeling, 7/10
  • 134. Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight Example Substitution 1: Homograph ê1 Freedom î0 Eye
  • 135. eld (nonsensical) Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie) Œ Harmonious [Society] (ocial slogan) ³ù River crab (irrelevant) They can't follow the conversation; Our methods can! The same task: (1) Government and industry analyst's job, (2) language drift (#BostonBombings #BostonStrong), (3) Child pornographers, (4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automated text analysis 7/10
  • 137. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. 8/10
  • 138. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 140. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information 8/10
  • 141. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 143. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: 8/10
  • 144. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 146. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! 8/10
  • 147. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 149. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available, but none work (computers don't know what you want!) 8/10
  • 150. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 152. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available, but none work (computers don't know what you want!) Our alternative: Computer-assisted Categorization 8/10
  • 153. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 155. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available, but none work (computers don't know what you want!) Our alternative: Computer-assisted Categorization You decide what's important, but with help 8/10
  • 156. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 158. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available, but none work (computers don't know what you want!) Our alternative: Computer-assisted Categorization You decide what's important, but with help Invert eort: you innovate; the computer categorizes 8/10
  • 159. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 161. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available, but none work (computers don't know what you want!) Our alternative: Computer-assisted Categorization You decide what's important, but with help Invert eort: you innovate; the computer categorizes Insights: easier, faster, better 8/10
  • 162. Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience) To understand many documents, humans create categories to represent conceptualization, insight, etc. Most
  • 164. xed categorizations to tally customer complaints, sort reports, retrieve information Bad Analytics: Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge eorts trying not to innovate! Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available, but none work (computers don't know what you want!) Our alternative: Computer-assisted Categorization You decide what's important, but with help Invert eort: you innovate; the computer categorizes Insights: easier, faster, better (Lots of technology, but it's behind the scenes) 8/10
  • 165. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 9/10
  • 166. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do 9/10
  • 167. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases 9/10
  • 168. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming 9/10
  • 169. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting 9/10
  • 170. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! 9/10
  • 171. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' 9/10
  • 172. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 9/10
  • 173. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 9/10
  • 174. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship 9/10
  • 175. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down 9/10
  • 176. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them 9/10
  • 177. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them We analyzed 11 million posts, about 13% censored 9/10
  • 178. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them We analyzed 11 million posts, about 13% censored Previous understanding: they censor criticisms of the government 9/10
  • 179. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them We analyzed 11 million posts, about 13% censored Previous understanding: they censor criticisms of the government Results: 9/10
  • 180. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them We analyzed 11 million posts, about 13% censored Previous understanding: they censor criticisms of the government Results: Uncensored: criticism of the government 9/10
  • 181. Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading 1. What Members of Congress Do Data: 64,000 Senators' press releases Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit claiming New Insight: partisan taunting Joe Wilson during Obama's State of the Union: You lie! Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as `Chicken Hawks' How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases! 2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship Previous approach: manual eort to see what is taken down Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them We analyzed 11 million posts, about 13% censored Previous understanding: they censor criticisms of the government Results: Uncensored: criticism of the government Censored: attempts at collective action 9/10
  • 182. For more information GaryKing.org 10/10