Demand forecasting

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Demand forecasting

  1. 1. <ul><li>DEMAND FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>TO ASSESS THE PROBABLE DEMAND OF A FIRM’S PRODUCT. </li></ul><ul><li>PLAN IT’S FUTURE PRODUCTION ACCORDINGLY. </li></ul><ul><li>BETTER PLANNING & ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES. </li></ul><ul><li>FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li> PREDICTION ESTIMATION </li></ul><ul><li>DEMAND FORECASTING PREDICTS ABOUT FUTURE TRENDS OF A SALES OF A PRODUCT WHEREAS DEMAND ESTIMATION TRIES TO FIND OUT EXPECTED PRESENT SALES LEVEL GIVEN THE PRESENT STATE OF DEMAND DETERMINANTS. </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>CHARACTERISTIC OF GOOD FORECASTING METHODS: </li></ul><ul><li>TIME HORIZON </li></ul><ul><li>LEVEL OF DETAIL </li></ul><ul><li>STABILITY </li></ul><ul><li>PATTERENS OF DATA </li></ul><ul><li>TYPE OF MODEL </li></ul><ul><li>COST </li></ul><ul><li>ACCURACY </li></ul><ul><li>EASE OF APPLICATION </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>DEMAND FORECASTING : </li></ul><ul><li>SHORT RUN FORECASTING HELPS IN ; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PREPARING SUITABLE SALES POLICY & PROPER SCHEDULING OF OUTPUT. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AVOIDING OVER-STOCKING OR COSTLY DELAYS IN MEETING THE ORDERS. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ARRIVING AT SUITABLE PRICE FOR THE PRODUCT. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DECIDING ABOUT NECESSARY MODIFICATIONS IN ADVERTISING & SALES TECHNIQUES. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>LONG RUN FORECASTING HELPS IN ; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PROPER CAPITAL PLANNING. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SAVING THE WESTAGE IN MATERIAL, MACHINE TIME, & CAPASITY. </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>SCOPE OF FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>* PERIOD OF FORECASTING : </li></ul><ul><li> – SHORT TERM, MEDIUM TERM, LONG TERM </li></ul><ul><li>* LEVEL OF FORECASTING : </li></ul><ul><li> – MACRO-ECNOMIC FORECASTING. </li></ul><ul><li> – INDUSTRY DD FORECASTING. </li></ul><ul><li> – FIRM DD FORECASTING. </li></ul><ul><li> – PRODUCT-LINE FORECASTING. </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>* FORECASTING FOR A NEW PRODUCT OR AN ESTABLISHED PRODUCT </li></ul><ul><li>* TYPE OF PRODUCT FOR WHICH FORECAST IS REQUIRED - </li></ul><ul><li>– CONSUMER DURABLE. </li></ul><ul><li> – CONSUMER NON-DURABLE. </li></ul><ul><li> – CAPITAL GOODS. </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>STEPS IN DEMAND FORECASTING </li></ul><ul><li>* IDENTIFICATION OF OBJECT : </li></ul><ul><li>THE APPROACH TO FORECASTING WOULD DIFFER FROM OBEJCT TO OBJECT. OBJECTS ARE ; </li></ul><ul><li>ESTIMATION OF QUANTITY & COMPOSITION OF DEMAND. </li></ul><ul><li>ESTIMATION OF THE PRICE AT WHICH PRODUCT IS TO OFFER FOR SALE. </li></ul><ul><li>SALES PLANNING. </li></ul><ul><li>INVENTORY CONTROL. </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>* DETERMINATION OF NATURE OF GOODS UNDER CONSIDERATIONS : </li></ul><ul><li>CAPITAL GOODS. </li></ul><ul><li>CONSUMER DURABLES. </li></ul><ul><li>CONSUMER NON-DURABLES. </li></ul><ul><li> * DETERMINANTS OF DEMAND </li></ul><ul><li>* ANALYSIS OF FACTORS </li></ul><ul><li>* CHOICE OF METHOD </li></ul><ul><li>* TESTING ACCURACY </li></ul>
  8. 8. FORECASTING METHODS <ul><li>SURVEY METHODS STATISTICAL METHODS </li></ul><ul><li>CONSUMER COLLECTIVE REASONED MARKET </li></ul><ul><li>SURVEY OPINION OPINION EXPERIMENTS </li></ul><ul><li>TIME SERIES ANALYSIS REGRESSIONANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>GRAPHICAL SEMI AVERAGE MOVING AVERAGE LEAST SQUARES </li></ul><ul><li>METHOD METHOD METHOD METHOD </li></ul>

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