1. Fredi
Schmidli
Zürich,
15
August,
2016
Hear from Fredi Schmidli - lean
investor - how to get to
problem/solution fit
Lean Startup Zürich
Meetup
1fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

2. Fredi Schmidli
• Economist
and
BA
• Management
Teams
in
various
functions
• Entrepreneur
• Business
Angel
and
Boardmember:
www.startangels.ch
• Partner
at
pragmatic
solutions
• Community
Builder:
meetup.com/Lean-­‐startup-­‐Zurich/
2fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

3. THE LEAN INVESTOR:
MAKE LOTS OF LITTLE
BETS. EXPECT MOST TO
FAIL.
Dave
Mc Clure @http://500.co
3fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

4. Goal:
To improve the success rate
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
• Develop
product
in
half
the
time
and
at
half
the
cost
(GE)
• Reduce
failure:
“wrong”
product
and
“premature”
scaling
4fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

5. Lean Innovation Framework
5fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

6. Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem
Solution
Fit
You
validated
with
MVP
and
prospects
that
a
specific
solution
will
solve
a
know
problem
to
such
a
degree
that
customer
will
buy
it.
Brant
Cooper
Value
assumption
– test
whether
a
product
or
service
really
delivers
value
to
specific
customers
once
using
it.
Scale
Product
Market
fit
Problem
Solution
fit
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
Customer
Creation
Is
the
identified
problem
real?
Will
the
target
customer
pay?
Can
the
problem
be
solved?
6fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

7. From Idea to Problem/Solution Fit
7
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

8. Key Principle
Get out of the
building and 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

9. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
9fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

10. Why Lean Innovation?
See:
http://practicetrumpstheory.com/2012/02/why-­‐lean-­‐canvas/
10fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

11. The 3 Phases of Customer Development
11
Source: Ash Maurya, Scaling Lean
What happens here?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

12. Different
Stages,
10x
product launch
12
Source: Asy Maurya, Scaling Lean
Ideation Validation Execution
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

13. Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
Workshop,
2015
13fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

14. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
14fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

15. Persona Development & Segmentation
understand
the “whys” by
looking at the
customers
behaviors
15
Facts
Factual
information
about
your
target
customer
Pain
State
the
problem
you
believe
your
target
customers
have,
that
your
solutions
solves
Behavior
Existing
behavior
they
exhibit
now,
because
they
don’t
have
your
solution
Goals
What
goals
are
they
trying
to
accomplish
with
their
behavior,
that
your
solution
will
do
better
See
also:
http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupMachine
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

16. What and why Early Adopters?
16
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

17. 17fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
Workshop,
2015

18. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
18fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

19. How to uncover problems
5
Why
root
cause
analysis
à “Why
is
this
a
problem?”
“Job
to
be
done”
concept,
Clayton
Christensen
(JTBD)
• main
job
&
related
Job
• Functional
&
emotional
aspects
• Personal
&
social
dimension
19fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

20. BML Feedback loop
Design
experiment
Proposal,
Pretotype,
,
MVP
…Results
Analyse results:
persevere,
pivot
or
quit?
weeks
not
years
Assumption/
Hypothesis
Run
experiment
20
Source:
Eric
Ries
«The
Lean
Startup»
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

21. Types of experiments
4)
Early
version
with
minimal
feature
set
that
can
be
“sold”
to
early
adopters
1)
Proposal:
a
document
describing
the
solution
3)
Fake
demo
of
any
kind
2)
Smoke
Test:
Landing
Page
to
test
interest
MVPPretotype
21fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

22. Validated Learning Experiment Template
Metric:
We
will
know
we
have
succeeded
when
[quantitative/measurable
outcome]
or
[qualitative/observable
outcome]
Janice
Fraser
Hypothesis:
We
believe
that
[customer
type]
have
a
need
for
[need/action/behavior]
Experiment:
The
smallest
thing
we
can
do
to
prove
that
need
is
[experiment]
22fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

23. • Welcome:
Set
the
scene
(2min)
• Interviewees
demographics-­‐target
customer?
(2min)
• Describe
problem
(your
hypothesis)
(2min)
• Customers
must
rank
top
three
problems
(4min)
• Listen
to
their
world
view
(15min)
• Wrap
up.
Sum
up
feedback
to
confirm
understanding
(2min)
• Get
permission
to
follow
up.
Get
referrals
(2min)
Problem Interview
Ash
Maurya
• Document
results
23
Goal:
Have
I
identified
a
problem
worth
solving?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

24. 24fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
Workshop,
2015

25. Test your concept early
Don’t be afraid to be
“embarrassed” when
customers see your “product”
for the first time, you will
be embarrassed anyway. Eric
Ries
25fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

26. 26
Learning is hard and often frustrating
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
Workshop,
2015

27. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
27fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

28. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
28fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

29. 29fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
Workshop,
2015

30. 30fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
Workshop,
2015

31. Types of experiments
4)
Early
version
with
minimal
feature
set
that
can
be
“sold”
to
early
adopters
1)
Proposal:
a
document
describing
the
solution
3)
Fake
demo
of
any
kind
2)
Smoke
Test:
Landing
Page
to
test
interest
MVPPretotype
31fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

32. Pretotype Example (Explainer Video)
Test
vision of
cloud service
offering –
Dropbox
32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QmCUDHpNzE
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

33. Solution Interview
Ash
Maurya
• Tell
a
story
-­‐ frame
the
product
(2min)
• Show
Concept/UVP,
Demo/Pretotype/MVP
(15min)
• Wrap
up.
Sum
up
feedback
to
confirm
understanding
(2min)
• Get
permission
to
follow
up.
Get
referrals
(2min)
• Document
results
• Welcome:
Set
the
scene
(2min)
• Collect
demographics
– right
customer
segment?
(2min)
33
• Test
the
pricing (15min)
Goal:
Will
I
build
sth.
people
want
at
the
price
they
will
pay?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

34. LEARN:
Persevere
I am convinced that half of what
separates the successful
entrepreneurs from the non-
successful ones is pure
perseverance 34fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

35. 35
Four sequential experiments
Experiment
1;
10% success
Refine
target
segment
Experiment
2;
20% success
Refine
target
segment
Experiment
3;
33% success
Experiment
4;
33% success
qual. quant.
Positive Negative
From Sébastien
Sacard
#
interviews
10% 20% 33%
33%
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

36. LEARN:
Persevere
I am convinced that half of what
separates the successful
entrepreneurs from the non-
successful ones is pure
perseverance 36fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

37. Experiment Report
Why is it relevant?
Quantify your goals
set scope/timebox
Plan
how to execute
experiment
Results =
Data
Document the learning (validated,
invalidated or inconclusive)
Test
value and growth hypothesis first
Move
to next experiment
37fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

38. 38fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

39. Lean Dash Board (Lean Stack)
Flow
39

40. Lean Dash Board: Example
Customer
Example:
Insurance
Company
www.pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch 4015.08.2016

41. Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem
Solution
Fit
You
validated
with
MVP
and
prospects
that
a
specific
solution
will
solve
a
know
problem
to
such
a
degree
that
customer
will
buy
it.
Brant
Cooper
Value
assumption
– test
whether
a
product
or
service
really
delivers
value
to
specific
customers
once
using
it.
Scale
Product
Market
fit
Problem
Solution
fit
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
Customer
Creation
Is
the
identified
problem
real?
Will
the
target
customer
pay?
Can
the
problem
be
solved?
41fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

42. The
growth
assumption
– test
how
new
customers
will
discover
a
product
or
service.
Through
what
engine
will
you
acquire
new
customers
at
affordable
cost.
Product Market Fit => Growth
Product
Market
Fit
Customer
is
willing
to
pay.
Cost
of
acquiring
new
customers
is
smaller
than
profit.
Evidence
that
market
is
large
enough
Brant
Cooper
Scale
Product
Market
fit
Problem
Solution
fit
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
Customer
Creation
42fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

43. LEARN: … or pivot
Pivot: A change in strategy
without a change in vision
43fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

44. Savings Potentials with Lean
• Lean
Canvas instead of Business
Plan
• Identification &
priorisation of risks instead of
testing the whole Business
Model
• Solution
interviews instead of Market
Research
• Pretotype/MVP
instead of perfect Product
• Speed
has biggest impact on
profit
44fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

45. Hands on books
45fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

46. agility
accelerates
...
FEEDBACK DOOR
46fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016

47. 47
Feedback
Door
1.
How
likely
is
it
that
you
would
recommend
this
Presentation
to
a
friend
or
colleague?
Source:
NetPromoter Score
2.
What
changes
would
we
have
to
make
for
you
to
give
us
one
point
more?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch15.08.2016