“ INDIA IN RECESSION?” Research Paper on - By Pradeep Tewani
CONTENTS <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>What is Recession? </li></ul><ul><li>Hypotheses </li></ul><ul><li>Methodol...
INTRODUCTION <ul><li>US is suffering from the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons...
WHAT IS RECESSION <ul><li>In Macro Economics, Recession means:- </li></ul><ul><li>A decline in a country’s real GDP, or </...
OBJECTIVE <ul><li>Slowdown & Recession are often mistaken as synonymous to each other </li></ul><ul><li>This Research is a...
HYPOTHESES <ul><li>Indian Economy could not decouple itself from the world economies, thus, faces a slowdown </li></ul><ul...
METHODOLOGY <ul><li>Inter period  comparison of various parameters related to the Indian Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Compari...
FINDINGS <ul><li>Impact of Global Turmoil on India </li></ul><ul><li>Many sectors of the Indian Economy have been affected...
<ul><li>Banking System </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign Trade </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Production </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign C...
1. BANKING SYSTEM <ul><li>No Indian bank was exposed to the sub-prime markets in the USA </li></ul><ul><li>Indian banks fo...
2. FOREIGN TRADE <ul><li>India’s exports were 12% lower in October 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Slew of measures have been taken...
3. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION <ul><li>IIP fell into negative in October 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of capital goods producti...
4. FOREIGN INVESTMENTS & CAPITAL MARKET <ul><li>Foreign funds have withdrawn over $10 billion since April 2008 </li></ul><...
5. INFLATION <ul><li>Rate of inflation was very high till August 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Government followed strict monetar...
6. GDP & GROWTH RATE <ul><li>Slow growth rate in 1 st  half of 2008-09 as compared to previous years </li></ul><ul><li>Slo...
PROMPT DAMAGE CONTROL MEASURES TAKEN BY GOVT. <ul><li>Rs. 180000 Crore infused in the system by slashing CRR & SLR </li></...
CONCLUSION <ul><li>Banking system is in a sound state </li></ul><ul><li>Steps taken by the govt. have shown positive respo...
INDIA IS NOT IN RECESSION! FINAL VERDICT
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India In Recession Pradeep Tewani

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This is the presentation which I made for a Paper presentation competition. and i won the 1st prize.. wat better way to start my life on slideshare...

The topic was "India in Recession?". the question mark in the end signified that we could take our stand whether India was in a recession (that's in early 2009)... I took my stand, presented hypotheses, and proved it..

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India In Recession Pradeep Tewani

  1. 1. “ INDIA IN RECESSION?” Research Paper on - By Pradeep Tewani
  2. 2. CONTENTS <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>What is Recession? </li></ul><ul><li>Hypotheses </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Findings </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>US is suffering from the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons – sub-prime crisis, rising oil prices, etc </li></ul><ul><li>Tremors of the slowdown felt all over the world </li></ul><ul><li>In September 2008, US was officially announced to be in Recession </li></ul>
  4. 4. WHAT IS RECESSION <ul><li>In Macro Economics, Recession means:- </li></ul><ul><li>A decline in a country’s real GDP, or </li></ul><ul><li>Negative real economic growth for 2 or more successive quarters of a year </li></ul><ul><li>A phase also characterized by unstable stock markets and fear, pessimism & lack of confidence in the economy </li></ul>
  5. 5. OBJECTIVE <ul><li>Slowdown & Recession are often mistaken as synonymous to each other </li></ul><ul><li>This Research is aimed at determining whether the slowdown in the Indian Economy is really a phase of Recession! </li></ul>
  6. 6. HYPOTHESES <ul><li>Indian Economy could not decouple itself from the world economies, thus, faces a slowdown </li></ul><ul><li>Though there is a slowdown in the Indian economy, it is not so severe to be termed as Recession </li></ul>
  7. 7. METHODOLOGY <ul><li>Inter period comparison of various parameters related to the Indian Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Comparing the same with the definition of Recession and ,thus, arriving at a conclusion </li></ul><ul><li>Study of the damage control measures taken by the government </li></ul>
  8. 8. FINDINGS <ul><li>Impact of Global Turmoil on India </li></ul><ul><li>Many sectors of the Indian Economy have been affected </li></ul><ul><li>Reason: US is India’s largest market for exports </li></ul><ul><li>Following areas of the Indian Economy have been covered in the research:- </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>Banking System </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign Trade </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Production </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign Capital Inflows & Capital Markets </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation </li></ul><ul><li>GDP & Growth Rate </li></ul>
  10. 10. 1. BANKING SYSTEM <ul><li>No Indian bank was exposed to the sub-prime markets in the USA </li></ul><ul><li>Indian banks follow different norms to give loans </li></ul><ul><li>RBI announced a series of measures to facilitate orderly operation of financial markets </li></ul><ul><li>Thus, financial stability has been ensured </li></ul>
  11. 11. 2. FOREIGN TRADE <ul><li>India’s exports were 12% lower in October 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Slew of measures have been taken by the government to prop up exports growth </li></ul><ul><li>Imports growth rate showed a decline from September 2008 onwards </li></ul><ul><li>Trade deficit to be lower than the expected level </li></ul>
  12. 12. 3. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION <ul><li>IIP fell into negative in October 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of capital goods production slowed during April-Oct 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Production of consumer durables declined by 3% in October 2008 </li></ul>
  13. 13. 4. FOREIGN INVESTMENTS & CAPITAL MARKET <ul><li>Foreign funds have withdrawn over $10 billion since April 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>FIIs stake fell in quarter ending September 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Exodus of FIIs led capital markets to unimaginable lows </li></ul><ul><li>Current Status: Markets have stabilised and are expected to rise </li></ul>
  14. 14. 5. INFLATION <ul><li>Rate of inflation was very high till August 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Government followed strict monetary policy to tame inflation </li></ul><ul><li>Result: Inflation was brought under control </li></ul>
  15. 15. 6. GDP & GROWTH RATE <ul><li>Slow growth rate in 1 st half of 2008-09 as compared to previous years </li></ul><ul><li>Slowdown set to hit the 3 rd quarter also </li></ul><ul><li>Economy expected to recover in 4 th quarter </li></ul><ul><li>Expected growth rate for 2008-09: around 7% </li></ul>
  16. 16. PROMPT DAMAGE CONTROL MEASURES TAKEN BY GOVT. <ul><li>Rs. 180000 Crore infused in the system by slashing CRR & SLR </li></ul><ul><li>Short term borrowings made easier by reducing repo rate </li></ul><ul><li>Inducing banks to lend by reducing reverse repo rate </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary policies well supported by Fiscal measures, such as Rs. 20000 Crore hike in planned expenditure for 2008-09 </li></ul>
  17. 17. CONCLUSION <ul><li>Banking system is in a sound state </li></ul><ul><li>Steps taken by the govt. have shown positive response </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation well under control </li></ul><ul><li>Stock markets have stabilized </li></ul><ul><li>India’s growth rate still one of the highest in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary measures – a blessing for producers & consumers </li></ul>
  18. 18. INDIA IS NOT IN RECESSION! FINAL VERDICT

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