Say Buh Bye to Status Quo or Why We Need to Build Resilience

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Presentation delivered by Asher Miller to Marin Environmental Forum November 29, 2011.

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Say Buh Bye to Status Quo or Why We Need to Build Resilience

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. d 5
  6. 6. converging crises the end of economic growth 6
  7. 7. converging crises the end of economic growth e energ y extrema n age of 7
  8. 8. converging crises e energ y a clima extrem te ina n age of ux 8
  9. 9. 9
  10. 10. 10
  11. 11. reindeer on St. Matthew 0 29 1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980ssource: Journal of Wildlife Management 11
  12. 12. reindeer on St. Matthew 1,350 0 29 1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980ssource: Journal of Wildlife Management 11
  13. 13. reindeer on St. Matthew 6,000 1,350 0 29 1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980ssource: Journal of Wildlife Management 11
  14. 14. reindeer on St. Matthew 6,000 1,350 0 29 42 1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980ssource: Journal of Wildlife Management 11
  15. 15. reindeer on St. Matthew 6,000 1,350 0 29 42 42 1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980ssource: Journal of Wildlife Management 11
  16. 16. reindeer on St. Matthew 6,000 1,350 0 29 42 42 0 1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980ssource: Journal of Wildlife Management 11
  17. 17. 12
  18. 18. humans on Earth 7 billion 2010: my son born 6 billion 5 billion 4 billion 1972: I was born 3 billion 2 billion 1 billion 0 billion 1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Nowsource: wikipedia 13
  19. 19. humans on Earth 7 billion 6 billion 00 = 10 5 billion f 1,0 1% o 4 billion 3 billion 2 billion 1 billion 0 billion 1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Nowsource: wikipedia 14
  20. 20. humans on Earth 7 billion 6 billion 00 = 10 5 billion f 1,0 1% o mil lion 4 billion 10 illio n= %o f1b 3 billion 1 2 billion 1 billion 0 billion 1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Nowsource: wikipedia 15
  21. 21. a GROWING problem real GDP damming of rivers water use fertilizer consumptionpaper consumption motor vehicles telephones atmospheric CO2 source: IGBP, Steffen et al 2004 ozone depletion natural climate disasters biodiversity loss 16
  22. 22. 17
  23. 23. 18
  24. 24. how many planets do we need? 1.6 earths 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008source: Global Footprint Network 19
  25. 25. 20
  26. 26. copyright Sebastião Salgado 21
  27. 27. oil 22
  28. 28. oilcoal 23
  29. 29. oilcoal natural gas 24
  30. 30. 25
  31. 31. 26
  32. 32. 27
  33. 33. 28
  34. 34. 29
  35. 35. 30
  36. 36. 31
  37. 37. 32
  38. 38. US energy consumption Biomass (Wood) Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Hydro Nuclear 100 80 quadrillion BTU 60 40 20 0 1705 1755 1805 1855 1905 1955 2005source: US Energy Information Agency 33
  39. 39. 34
  40. 40. d 35
  41. 41. 36
  42. 42. converging crises the end of the age of a climateeconomic growth extreme energy in ux 37
  43. 43. 38
  44. 44. winning the energy lottery 39
  45. 45. M. King Hubbert 40
  46. 46. Hubbert’s peak 41
  47. 47. US oil discoveries & production discoveries (lower 48) oil production 40,000 12,000 production (million barrels)discoveries (million barrels) 30,000 9,000 20,000 6,000 10,000 3,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 42
  48. 48. world oil discoveries recoverable reserves number of elds discovered 400reserves, in gigabarrels 300 200 100 0 1850-1900 1910s 1930s 1950s 1970s 1990s 43
  49. 49. global crude oil production 75million barrels/day 73 71 68 66 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 44
  50. 50. 45
  51. 51. 46
  52. 52. 47
  53. 53. the oil price trap Oil price Minimum oil needed for price likelydevelopment to trigger of new oil economic production recession: capacity: $100 $70 48
  54. 54. oil prices & recessions recessions oil prices $150 $120USD/barrel $90 $60 $30 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 49
  55. 55. good riddance, right? 50
  56. 56. ] T IVE PERA TIO N IM SE RVA ON OR [ T HE C GF IN E CH CL EAR IRAS AM g inber e r rd He y M a n d by Richa y J e r r rd b wo Fore tute. bonInsti ostCar ationandtheP on Globaliz Forum r2009 ational es#4Septembe eIntern ri ] rojectofth alseSolutionSe AJointP [F 51
  57. 57. evaluating alternatives- size of resource 52
  58. 58. evaluating alternatives- size of resource- infrastructure requirements 53
  59. 59. evaluating alternatives- size of resource- infrastructure requirements- convenience of use 54
  60. 60. evaluating alternatives- size of resource- infrastructure requirements- convenience of use- environmental impact 55
  61. 61. evaluating alternatives- size of resource- infrastructure requirements- convenience of use- environmental impact- renewability 56
  62. 62. evaluating alternatives- size of resource- infrastructure requirements- convenience of use- environmental impact- renewability- scalability 57
  63. 63. evaluating alternatives- size of resource- infrastructure requirements- convenience of use- environmental impact- renewability- scalability- location of resource 58
  64. 64. 59
  65. 65. the tough reality ere is no credible scenarioin which alternative energy sources can make up for fossil fuels once declines begin. 60
  66. 66. PCI Fellows 61
  67. 67. key conclusions- we have hit the limits to growth 62
  68. 68. key conclusions- we have hit the limits to growth- no issue can be addressed in isolation 63
  69. 69. key conclusions- we have hit the limits to growth- no issue can be addressed in isolation- we must focus on responses, not just solutions 64
  70. 70. key conclusions- we have hit the limits to growth- no issue can be addressed in isolation- we must focus on responses, not just solutions- we must prepare for business unusual 65
  71. 71. key conclusions- we have hit the limits to growth- no issue can be addressed in isolation- we must focus on responses, not just solutions- we must prepare for business unusual- we must build resilience 66
  72. 72. resiliencethe ability to absorb shocks and continue to function 67
  73. 73. 68
  74. 74. managing the transition not a question of if but a question of how 69
  75. 75. great transitions re languageagriculture industrialism now 70
  76. 76. crisis = opportunityis is the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes. Who will seize it? 71

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