Decision Support System


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Decision Support System

  1. 1. Decision Support Systems Deliverer: Dr Les Ball
  2. 2. What’s the module about and not about? <ul><li>ABOUT, finding IT solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To facilitate and support the decision making process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>So they feed into the human decision process too </li></ul></ul><ul><li>NOT about machines making decisions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This is far, far too dangerous </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As they are not as good as us!!!!! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not specifically about databases, though they are one mechanism that can feed the process </li></ul><ul><li>We are at a deeper and more abstract level of thinking </li></ul>
  3. 3. Learning Outcomes <ul><li>Critically examine knowledge engineering techniques and reasoning strategies for organisational decision making. </li></ul><ul><li>Analyse the cognitive decision making processes. </li></ul><ul><li>Critically asses the &quot;support&quot; aspect of a Decision Support System. </li></ul>
  4. 4. SA1053a <ul><li>Delivery </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lectures, labs, tutorials </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Labs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Use different types of software to illustrate ideas behind decision making processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exam 50% (May) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Case Study 50% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Supporting Material </li></ul><ul><ul><li> (but limited now) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Marakas , G. M. (2003) DSS in the 21 st Century (2 nd Ed.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Quite expensive </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Rough Lecture Schedule <ul><li>Lectures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Start with lecture (I may change this delivery towards directed reading) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will follow Marakas textbook closely on certain topics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Posted on WebCT </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Topics will include ……….. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision modelling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Group decision making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge acquisition and elicitation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data mining and machine learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Artificial intelligence </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Lab work <ul><li>Game playing to offer insights into your cognitive thinking, attitude and self perception </li></ul><ul><li>Practical experience of using DSS software </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not commercial! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But also the ability to think deeper about how decision processes and structures </li></ul><ul><li>We shall use 3 very different approaches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To brainstorm idea </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To structure a decision in terms of processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To structure a decision in terms of rules </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Assessment – the examination <ul><li>Examination (50%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Could be on any topic presented from the set textbook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Those who read around will obviously be much more primed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We can look at last year’s paper maybe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We can have revision sessions late in term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As 4 th year students you are expected to take charge of your learning much more than last year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>So the lectures and directed reading are only pointers to topics which you should research more widely </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Assessment – the Practical <ul><li>Will be based around the lab experiences you receive </li></ul><ul><li>You will need to develop your expertise into areas of your choice (probably!) </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the work will be group driven </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As part of the module is to se how you go about consensus etc in groups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Working together is therefore important (even with limited students!) </li></ul><ul><li>However you will be assessed individually for the most part </li></ul>
  9. 9. A bit about the software <ul><li>DECISION EXPLORER </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A brainstorming tool to map decisions and consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>JUNIPER </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A research tool to map decision processes hierarchically </li></ul></ul><ul><li>RESOLVER </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A decision tree tool to structure rules </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. First week Directed Reading <ul><li>The paper you have is a seminal work by two of the most acknowledged authors in the field </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kahneman and Tversky (hand out in lab) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Should be a challenge and whet your appetite for this kind of module – see what you think of it. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Marakas Chapters 1 & 3 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chapter 1 covers the Introduction to Decision Support Systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chapter 3 covers decision making in the organisation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Brief overview of these now </li></ul>
  11. 11. Organisational Decisions <ul><li>Purpose is to make decisions in a business environment </li></ul><ul><li>These identify boundaries, policies and procedures </li></ul><ul><li>Can be individuals, groups or DSS’s </li></ul><ul><li>5 dimensions of decision making </li></ul>Marakas, 2003 We need to bring humans and technology together
  12. 12. The dimensions of decision making <ul><li>Group Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Individual or group responsibility? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group Roles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information gathering, analysis, DSS users </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group Process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The process and its affects on decisions made </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group Style </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The beliefs of the decision maker affect the outcome? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group Norm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Do social issues affect the decision making? </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Decision Levels <ul><li>Operations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Day-to-day </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tactical </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High level planning of resources </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strategic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The elite! Highest management level </li></ul></ul>Marakas, 2003
  14. 14. Organisational Culture <ul><li>System of Shared beliefs which exerts influence over activities of the organisation </li></ul><ul><li>Individual initiative </li></ul><ul><li>independence </li></ul><ul><li>Control </li></ul><ul><li>Supervision? </li></ul><ul><li>Risk tolerance </li></ul><ul><li>Seeking or averse? </li></ul><ul><li>Identity </li></ul><ul><li>Corporate? </li></ul><ul><li>Direction </li></ul><ul><li>Clear objectives? </li></ul>Reward System <ul><li>Integration </li></ul><ul><li>Co-ordinated? </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict tolerance </li></ul><ul><li>Open? </li></ul>Management Support <ul><li>Communication patterns </li></ul><ul><li>formal hierarchy? </li></ul>
  15. 15. Power and Politics <ul><li>Power is </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sharing, authority, informal power, influence, politics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And used to decide on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Jobs, products, new investments, setting of prices, withholding dividends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Politics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Essential for strategic decision making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Negotiation, consensus, influence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>These increase certainty by reducing factors that contribute to uncertainty </li></ul></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Lets concentrate on DSS’s now <ul><li>Why DSS’s? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To improve process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Too much information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To cross communicate better </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitive interests for information </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What are they? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Applied to unstructured problems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support the decision process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Under the user’s control </li></ul></ul>DSS Characteristics <ul><li>Semi/unstructured </li></ul><ul><li>decisions </li></ul>Uses data/models support decision maker Facilitates learning Support all phases Interactive - user friendly effectiveness Iterative process Control with user Multiple decisions Indiv./team/group
  17. 17. +ves and –ves of DSS’s <ul><li>Some +ves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extends DM’s capacity to process information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solves the time-consuming parts of a problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide otherwise unnoticed alternatives </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some -ves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Constrained by knowledge supplied </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited reasoning processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. natural language processing is not yet sophisticated </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No universal DSS exists </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Framework for DSS Level of management activity Repetitiveness Module domain Management activity Type Op. Control Mgmt. Control Strategy Plan Support needed Structured Inventory control Load balancing Plant location MIS Semi-struct. Securities trading Marketing budgets Acquisition of assets DSS Unstruct. Cover photo recruitment R&D projects Human reasoning
  19. 19. DSS Components <ul><li>Data Management System </li></ul><ul><li>The Model Management System </li></ul><ul><li>The Knowledge Engine </li></ul><ul><li>The user interface </li></ul><ul><li>The users </li></ul>
  20. 20. The DBMS <ul><li>Storage/access </li></ul><ul><li>Independence between data and applications </li></ul><ul><li>Functions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data definition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Querying </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data integrity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Access control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concurrency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transaction recovery </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. The Model Base <ul><li>Differentiates DSSs from other Info. Systems </li></ul><ul><li>A simplified view to aid study of an event </li></ul><ul><li>Stores models as opposed to data </li></ul><ul><li>Functions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creates decision models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stores a library of models/descriptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manipulation (similar to DBMS) but makes changes to the models </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. The Knowledge Base <ul><li>Requires reasoning (and info.) </li></ul><ul><li>The DSS store </li></ul><ul><li>Consists of raw data, rules , heuristics, constraints , past history etc </li></ul><ul><li>The knowledge is problem-specific </li></ul><ul><li>Stores two groups of information: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Facts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relationships between the facts </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Rules Marakas, 2003
  24. 24. Knowledge Acquisition/Retrieval <ul><li>Knowledge engineers gather information for input to the knowledge base </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Involves extraction of explicit and tacet knowledge from experts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inference engine extracts the information required by the user by applying rules etc </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. User Interfaces <ul><li>A component to access the internal components of a system </li></ul><ul><li>Use a common and established interface to reduce training </li></ul><ul><li>Requires communication language </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Variety of interactions with DSS, input formats, support, previous dialogues </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And a presentation language </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Various styles of presenting data, reports, views </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. The DSS User <ul><li>Integral to the system </li></ul>Modified from Marakas, 2003 Regular reports DM interacts with DSS Offline usage Intermediary users Ideal mode
  27. 27. Summary <ul><li>Organisational decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Types of decisions </li></ul><ul><li>DSS characteristics </li></ul><ul><li>The DBMS and MBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge Base and Rules </li></ul><ul><li>Acquisition and Retrieval </li></ul><ul><li>The users </li></ul><ul><li>Don't forget to read both Chapters 1 and 3 to supprt this lecture </li></ul><ul><li>Your strategy here is to start priming early for the exam but to increase you awareness of decision maling processes generally </li></ul>
  28. 28. These all involve decision processes <ul><li>What is the likelihood that it will rain today? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the processes you think you will need to go through to get the degree classification you are chasing? </li></ul><ul><li>If the fire alarm suddenly goes off during this lecture what are the possible outcomes? </li></ul><ul><li>Which investment strategy should I undertake? </li></ul>