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Future outlook

How will we live in 30 years time? How will the transportation and logistics industry be affected?

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An	
  outlook	
  into	
  a	
  (possible)	
  future



                                                       Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
                                                               Chalmers
                                       per-­‐olof.arnas@chalmers.se
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                                 @Dr_PO
In	
  30	
  years

                                                  from	
  now...
                                       ...what	
  will	
  the	
  
                                       world	
  be	
  like?


                                                       live?
                                                       work?
                                  ...how	
  will	
  we
                                                       travel?
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
                                                       consume?
e
                                       S om Global	
  trends


                                  Climate	
  change   Sustainability	
  focus

         Popula4on	
  growth                          UrbanizaJon

                       Energy	
  shortage             Efficiency	
  focus
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
Sustainability	
  will	
  affect	
  
                                     everything	
  we	
  do


CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
Environmental	
  tax	
  
                    will	
  increase	
  greatly


                                  Consumers	
  demand	
  
                                       transparency

CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
Most	
  of	
  us	
  will	
  live	
  in	
  ciJes




CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
Ad

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Future outlook

  • 1. An  outlook  into  a  (possible)  future Per  Olof  Arnäs Chalmers per-­‐olof.arnas@chalmers.se CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs @Dr_PO
  • 2. In  30  years from  now... ...what  will  the   world  be  like? live? work? ...how  will  we travel? CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs consume?
  • 3. e S om Global  trends Climate  change Sustainability  focus Popula4on  growth UrbanizaJon Energy  shortage Efficiency  focus CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 4. Sustainability  will  affect   everything  we  do CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 5. Environmental  tax   will  increase  greatly Consumers  demand   transparency CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 6. Most  of  us  will  live  in  ciJes CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 7. ExponenJal  increase   in  complexity City  LogisJcs  becomes   a  global  industry CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 8. We  will  experience  an  energy   shortage CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 9. Not  enough  biomass, materials  etc. Not  available  where   it  is  needed  most CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 10. Vehicles  and  vessels  will   (always)  be  ”full” CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 12. Two tr endsthat  will affect other  logisJcs  and  transportaJon 1:  Homo  Digitalis 2:  Prosumerism CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 13. b eginning We  are  in  the  middle  of  a  huge  exponenJal     CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs development  curve
  • 14. A  new  global  eco-­‐system  where  new  types   of,  knowledge  based,  industries compete  with  the  tradiJonal  ones CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 15. Startups  don’t  compete  with  airlines...   by  purchasing  a  bunch  of  planes hiring  a  bunch  of  pilots and  locking  up  a  bunch  of  terminals  at  airports. CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs h"p://bryce.vc/post/18404303850/the-­‐problem-­‐with-­‐innova=on
  • 16. Startups  don’t  compete  with  airlines...   by  purchasing  a  bunch  of  planes hiring  a  bunch  of  pilots and  locking  up  a  bunch  of  terminals  at  airports. Startups  compete  with  airlines  by   invenJng  videoconferencing. CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs h"p://bryce.vc/post/18404303850/the-­‐problem-­‐with-­‐innova=on
  • 18. Even  though  the  created  world   around  us  evolves  quickly... ...we  as  a  species  do  not.   Well,  not  without  tools,  anyway. CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 19. People  will  sJll  want  the  same  things Get  laid Get  paid Get  made CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Quote  from  Dave  McClure
  • 22. We  are  deeply  connected  to   everything  around  us From  Minority  Report CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 23. Homo  Economicus The  Economic  Man CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 24. Homo  Digitalis  Economicus Well-­‐informed The Well-­‐equipped Economic  Man Well-­‐connected data With  high  expectaJons  on opJmizaJon interacJon CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 25. Our  digital  double  will  be  our   extension  into  the  ”matrix” No  difference  between   personal  and  professional Interac4on Nego4a4on Our  double  will  handle Op4miza4on Communica4on Filtering CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 28. 3D-­‐prinJng  will  be  done  at  home   or  in  local/regional  faciliJes Increased  global  flows   of  raw  materials Decreased  global  flow   of  products CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs
  • 30. Thank  you! Per  Olof  Arnäs Chalmers per-­‐olof.arnas@chalmers.se @Dr_PO Slides  available  on  my   SlideShare  channel: slideshare.net/poar Images  CC-­‐licensed,  source   in  comments CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs