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EU-China Information Society Project


                  Virtual Worlds in Asia
                 Trends and Expectations




Shaping and Governing the 3-D Internet
Benjamin Joffe, CEO | Plus Eight Star | Beijing, 2009.03
Foreword
Benjamin Joffe
 ベンジャミン
   벤자민
   本杰明
4 years

          1 year
                   4 years
www.plus8star.com
Cross-Market Consulting
Telecom & Internet Innovation
     China | Japan | South Korea
26 events | 98 speakers | 3,296 members | 1,440 companies
I am going to talk about
        1. What is a virtual world
        2. What are their origins
        3. What’s the market situation
        4. What are the trends
        5. What are the legal challenges
        6. More complexities
        7. The digital third place

                          for 60 minutes
Chapter 1.
  What is a
Virtual World?
Before getting started…
Questions
Who uses Internet (almost) every day?
Question 2
Yesterday
Virtual World?
Problem 1
What does “virtual” mean?
3D Analog World
Without Server Lag?
Online / Offline
In-
Offline             Online
          between
Digital Immigrants
         &
  Digital Natives
Offline Audience: 300

Online Audience: >30,000
       (and counting)


     Factor 100!
Online + Offline = Life
Problem 2
What means “world”?
Avatars?
Video



[Superbowl Ad]
Key elements
   (1) Reach
(2) Reputation
Definition

  Persistent environment
Synchronous communication
     Personified users
Chapter 2.
  Origins of
Virtual Worlds
1981   1984   1992
The Matrix (1999)   Ghost in the Shell (1989)
LambdaMOO (1990)
Habitat (Lucasfilm, 1986)
Kingdom of the Wind (Nexon, 1996)
EverQuest (Sony, 1999)
Virtual World Types

     Platform
    Community
     Gaming
     Business
Chapter 3.
Market Situation
“It’s complicated”
>150 virtual worlds
In 2008, over US$580 million
were invested in 41 virtual goods-
       related businesses.
  Source: Virtual Worlds Management
Is it a business?
Revenue Scale

Online games = x 1,000 million
Social networks = x 100 million
 Virtual worlds = x 10 million
However: Convergence

Online games have revenues
Social networks have loyalty
 Virtual worlds have appeal
2D Worlds
Europe & North America
Daily Users: 495,210
Monthly unique users: 6.6 million across Facebook & MySpace
Service        Registered users   Revenue 2008 (E)   Valuation (E)
Habbo          100 mln            50 mln USD         1.25 bln USD
Gaia Online    7 mln UV/month     10 mln USD         n.a.
Stardoll       20 mln             30 mln USD         450 mln USD
Club Penguin   12 mln             50-150 mln USD     350-700 mln USD
South Korea
Japan
Service          Registered users   Revenue 2008 (E) Valuation (E)
Cyworld          22 mln             200 mln USD       n.a.
Mobile Game Town 12.6 mln           250 mln USD       1.4 billion USD
Gree             8 mln              60 mln USD        1.2 billion USD
Nicotto Town     100,000            n.a.              n.a.
China
3D Worlds
Europe & North America
(60% Made in China)
Japan
Internet
Adventure   Meet-me
(by SEGA)
Video



[Mii TV ad - 2007]
PS3 “Home”
25 million Xbox 360
 consoles getting
software upgrade?
South Korea
Video



[Nurien Demo]
China
Chapter 4.
  Trends
Trend 1
Away from Second Life
Gaming
               Mainly Second                             virtual
              Life adaptations                           worlds
2D dating




            2005        2006        2007          2008             2009
                                      2D
                                     worlds




                                    Variety of
                                  concepts and
                                 revenue models
Trend 2
Browser
Browser   Hybrid   Client




2D
3D
Trend 3
Virtual goods
Business models
•   Virtual real estate
•   Virtual currency
•   Virtual goods
•   E-commerce
•   Advertising
•   Platform licensing
•   Content creation
Chapter 5.
Legal Aspects
Trademarks
Patents
Forterra (There.com) vs. IMVU
Prior Art
Worlds.com vs. NC Soft
“System and Method for Enabling
Users to Interact in a Virtual Space”
            (7,181,690)
Will patents hurt the market?
    (“1-click” patent case)
Copyrights
Who owns what?
Facebook’s Terms of Service (TOS)

• “We reserve the right, at our sole discretion, to
  change, modify, add, or delete portions of these
  Terms of Use at any time without further notice.”

• Chronology of the TOS-gate
  – 2009.02.15 | Change in TOS – Facebook can do
    whatever it wants with the content
  – 2009.02.15 | Users uproar
  – 2009.02.17 | Back to old TOS
  – 2009.02.26 | Opens its TOS for input from users
Terms Of Service (TOS)
         vs.
     Regulation
Copyright? Civil rights? TOS?
Second Life Interview Incident
USA: Digital Millennium copyright Act
               (DMCA)

     EU: EU Copyright Directive
              (EUCD)
Subpoena?

Fair Use?
If the effort it takes to file
repeated claims is greater
than the effort to create an
account and repost a video,
then certainly something is
flawed.
My expectation would be
that Linden Lab swiftly
research that problem and
close that loophole.

Otherwise it would raise
questions about how ready
Second Life actually is for
professional use.
Video



[User-Generated Music Video]
Commerce
of Virtual Goods
400,000 Gold Farmers
in China & South Korea?
Identity Management
“On the Internet, nobody knows
         you’re a dog.”




                      The New Yorker, 1993
“On the Internet, nobody knows
         you’re a bot.”




                        Wired, 2005
“Glider is a tool that plays your
 World of Warcraft character
 for you, the way you want it.



  It grinds, it loots, it skins, it
    heals, it even farms soul
     shards... without you.”
Single   Multiple   Use of   Shared
account   accounts    Bots    account
Shared account
  Use of Bots




Whose persona?
Online & Offline Identities

        Real name
        Pen name
       Anonymous
Identity depends
on the social circle
Chapter 6.
More Complexity
Regulating virtual worlds is already complicated
              for service providers
There.com CEO joins the conversation…
       as a voice over his avatar
Video



[Fix8 Demo]
Obama Outfitted With
238 Motion Capture Sensors
For 3-D Record Of Presidency
…or not.
Lawrence
 Howard      Clay
                       Lessig
Rheingold   Shirky
Chapter 7.
The Digital
Third Place
What is a third place?
Economic activities
Creative activities
Cultural products
Social environments
Digital Third Place
Afterword
What Next?
Necessary skills
for the future?
Business is online
Online identity & reputation
    are most important
Increase awareness
      of the risks
and how to avoid them
Celebrate the benefits
About +8*
There are more ideas
outside your country
          than inside
                   Tom Kelley
                    CEO, IDEO
   The 10 faces of Innovation
“Innovation Arbitrage”
• About us
   – +8* | Plus Eight Star is the leading cross-market and cross-cultural consultancy in Asia.
   – We provide local expertise & global perspective on mobile and Internet innovation from
     China, Japan and South Korea to add value to and accelerate the development of our
     clients’ businesses.

• Our services
   – Analysis of proven best practices and business models from Asia
   – Other services: executive study trips, market entry strategy, M&A advisory, partners
     identification, negotiation support.

• Founder & CEO: Benjamin Joffe
   –   9 years experience with mobile & Internet in Asia
   –   Selected among “China’s Top 100 mobile industry influencers” in 2007
   –   Regular speaker at events on mobile and Internet in Asia
   –   Fluent in English, Japanese, French with working knowledge of Mandarin, Korean and
       Spanish
Selected References
•   Adidas | E-commerce strategy for China, Japan & Korea

•   Bouygues Telecom | Cases studies of leading Asian Web 2.0 services
    and virtual worlds

•   Deutsche Telekom / T-Online | Benchmark of Korean mobile & Internet
    convergence strategies

•   Hemisphere | Analysis of mobile marketing best practices in Japan and
    South Korea (Hemisphere is a leading digital advertising agency),
    analysis of leading social platforms (SNS, virtual worlds, online games).

•   Microsoft | Analysis of Japan’s key players and market catalysts for
    mobile commerce market positioning in China

•   DeNA | Case studies of the best practices of leading social networks in
    China and South Korea (DeNA operates Mobile Game Town, Japan’s
    leading mobile SNS service)

•   China Mobile | Benchmark of Korean leading online communities

•   Sands Capital Management | Evaluation of China’s investment
    opportunities in social networks in China
Social Contribution
• Mobile Monday
   – Founder of the Mobile Monday forum in Beijing since 2006 (3,000+
     members, 23 events, over 80 presentations).

• Media
   – Monthly column on Asian innovation for Asian Business Leaders (one of
     the leading Chinese business magazines), numerous interviews in
     international media.


• Events
   – Regular keynote speaker and moderator at Internet, Telecom, Media and
     Investment events
      e.g. eComm, ITU Asia, Asia Venture Capital Forum, China Mobility International
      Summit, O’Reilly’s Graphing Social Patterns, Red Herring Asia, Media 08
      Conference, Wireless Developer Forum, Open Web Asia, XMediaLab, Mobile
      Monday Global Summit, etc.
Contact Us

www.plus8star.com

benjamin@plus8star.com
                                       +81 | Japan
benjamin0123                           +82 | Korea

                                       +86 | China
http://twitter.com/plus8star
                                    Telecom & Internet
www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe
                                      + Added Value

www.slideshare.net/plus8star          * High quality

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