Good morning everyone - buenos días a todos – bon día a tots Thank you (…) for your introduction. As our Secretary-General said this morning in his welcome address, the WYSE Travel Confederation as been an Affiliate Member of the World Tourism Organization for almost 31 years, joining not long after the UNWTO itself was constituted, and it is a real honour to be part of this long-standing partnership. As someone who spends most of their working day researching and writing about many different areas of the tourism sector, I must say that I have rarely enjoyed working in an area so much as the exciting, dynamic world of youth tourism – if nothing else because it helps me find lots of reasons to justify my own holidays! Anyway, this morning I would like to talk you through some of the key trends that are emerging in tourism at a global level . As many of you know, young travellers are marking the pace and direction of many of these wider trends. In the case of the emerging outbound markets, they're definitely fuelling growth and helping to boost the recovery from the economic crisis – another reason why both our organizations recognise the importance of taking this sector seriously.
But before I present the facts and figures, I would first like to give you a brief introduction to the World Tourism Organization.
The UNWTO is the United Nations’ specialized agency in the field of tourism. The organization actually started at the beginning of the last century as a group of travel agencies and other organizations from the private sector. In 1975 it was officially located in Madrid and in 2003 it gained its status as a specialized agency of the United Nations, bringing together 161 Member States and more than four hundred AFFILIATE MEMBERS.
So the Affiliate Members, - among whom we are proud to include the WYSE Travel Confederation - include airlines, hotel groups, universities, training schools, industry associations, and more. This makes us quite unique since we’re the only Organization in the UN system which has members from the private sector.
Our main role is to serve as a global forum for tourism policy issues, and to bring governments and business together to build a tourism sector that is sustainable and competitive. As an agency of the UN, we are firmly committed to helping the tourism sector face the challenges that the United Nations identified in the Millennium Declaration in 2000…
Now, I’m sure many of you know about the eight Millennium Development Goals. The central aim of the these goals is to halve poverty in all its forms and the UN has identified eight priority areas for the global community to address. Each of these goals can be measured and tested and the target date for achieving them is 2015. So how can tourism help? Well, as we shall see, tourism is expanding and occupying an increasingly important place in the global economy, increasing its capacity to make a difference. And of course, Many of you who work in volunteering and development will have seen the direct impact tourism can have on marginal communities around the world. LISTA: Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
When you work in this sector day to day, it's often easy to lose sight of quite how important it is to the global economy. Did you know for example, that it is the 4 th biggest export category in the world, after fuels, chemicals and automotive products? It accounts for 6 – 7% of global employment And, of course, for many developing countries it is the main source of foreign income, creating much needed employment and opportunities for development.
So how has tourism evolved and what is the situation today? To help me explain this, I'll be using data from the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer which brings together statistics from over 180 countries. This report provides a global reference for the main trends occurring in tourism and is published 6 times per year.
So over the past 6 decades, tourism has experienced massive expansion and diversification to occupy the key position that it does today in the global economic landscape. Here you can se how things have progressed over the past fifteen years, with growth from 528 million international arrivals in 1995 to 940 million that we registered last year.
Now let's compare this with the results for international tourism receipts. So this is income generated from tourism, it excludes international passenger transport and is measured in real terms, and adjusted to allow for fluctuations in exchange rates and inflation. We can see that both experienced a nearly identical growth over this 15 year period, in spite of short term shocks, such as 9/11 and shortly after, the SARS epidimic in South Asia. Nearer the top of this graph, we can see the deceleration that took place as the economic crisis took hold in 2008 into 2009.
So what effect did the global economic crisis have on our sector, and how is the recovery taking shape?
Well, let's look at the monthy evolution of international arrivals over the last 3 years. We can clearly see here how the crisis took hold in the middle of 2008, severely shaking consumer confidence as unemployment started to rise. The effects of this were most strongly felt in the first quarter of 2009, while the inevitable summer demand helped to ease the pain. Fortunately, we returned to growth in 2010 and actually exceeded expectations, ending with growth of 6.6%. The excellent results for 2010 were boosted by the rapid growth we’re seeing from the emerging markets and the various mega events that took place such as the FIFA World Cup in South Africa, the Shanghai Expo, the Commonwealth Games in India and the Winter Olympics in Canada
Now let's compare the effect of the crisis on the advanced economies (shown here in red) and the emerging economies (shown in yellow). What this graph shows is how the emerging economies entered into negative growth later and recovered earlier, while the effects were more prolonged for the advanced economies. So this really does give us a picture of a multi-speed recovery. In a moment I'll show you how this looks at a regional level.
But first, let's take a quick look at 2011 (shown in red) compared to the last 3 years. We don't currently expect 2011 to beat growth in 2010 because 2010 was a particularly good year. But the results for the 6 months to June are promising.and show that recovery was steady and so far, above average.
So the balance of these figures is that this year, we expect annual growth of 4-5% On the whole, the picture is looking bright and this confirms that tourism is resilient in the long term.
So to gain a clearer idea of the multi-speed recovery that I mentioned, let's take a closer look from a regional perspective....
EUROPE: Tourism recovery has been slower than in other regions of the world, because of uncertain economic growth in many countries, as well as unemployment and austerity measures which have affected consumer confidence. Customers here are therefore very price sensitive, booking at the last minute and searching the internet extensively for offers. However, we’re seeing record-breaking arrivals in Germany, Turkey and Croatia, as well as an expected increase in demand from the US outbound market. It must be said that many European destinations have benefitted from the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.
AMERICAS: North America, Central and South America are all counted as one in this case, however we are able to take a reading from different countries’ figures. The return to growth has helped lift the region’s fortunes as a whole, however, many Americans are still opting to spend their vacation in the US. Arrivals in Central America only rose by 4% which wasn’t enough to offset the decline suffered in 2009, However, South America has posted the strongest results in the region with an increase of 11% in 2010. Argentina was the star performer here, with an increase of 22% in the first three quarters (though it suffered badly in the same period the year before due to the H1N1 virus). Brazil is now the third largest outbound market in the region after the USA and Canada, and in 2010 spending increased by a massive 51% to 16.4bn dollars. Ultimately, the natural disasters which affected the region last year (such as the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, the mudslides in South and Central America and the severe snowstorms in the US and Canada) are only expected to have very temporary effects on tourism flows (except in the case of Haiti).
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC We can see here the very impressive figure of 12.6% growth in 2010, which was double the world average, making it the world’s strongest growth region for the last 2 years. This is largely because: strong economic growth has boosted business travel, rising middle class incomes are allowing many people to travel for the first time, travel restrictions and visa requirements are being lifted and; hotel chains and airlines are investing heavily in the region. It’s worth noting that departures FROM China represent a quarter of all the departures in this region (55.7 million in 2010), and the Shanghai Expo helped to boost inbound tourism. We are watching closely the recovery in Japan following the earthquake there, reminding consumers that large parts of the country were unaffected by the earthquake and tsunami. Current estimates show that tourism fell by 50% in March this year compared with March 2010.
THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA The Middle East has been growing with the rise in oil prices and the success of its airlines which bring many people through hubs in Dubai and Abu Dabi. Of course, the unrest in some these countries has had a negative impact on international arrivals, but it's also important to stress that many destinations are open for business, something which no doubt many intrepid young travelers have discovered. Finally Africa is experiencing steady growth, boosted largely by the fact that high oil and commodity prices are supporting increases in travel and tourism. In South Africa, last year’s World Cup in South Africa led to a 15% increase there, and we expect this positive trend to continue.
If we break down our analysis and look at the subregions, we can see clearly how the emerging economies are in the group that is benefitting from the biggest rise in international arrivals, all above the world average (shown in grey). Over to the right, the more mature destinations in the Meditteranean, Northern and Western Europe and North America have grown at a much slower rate. As I'm sure many of you who work with emerging markets will have noticed, this is explained by the fact that departures from the emerging markets at the moment tend to be within their own region.
This point is illustrated by the two biggest bands on this graph. Here we can see the breakdown of international departures divided by their destination. The band of yellow shows travellers visiting emerging economies from within the same region, and the band of light blue at the bottom shows how consumers in the advanced economies are travelling more frequently, but within their own region. It will be interesting to see how this picture evolves over the years to come.
Now, I'm aware that I've have bombarded you with a lot of graphs this morning, so I'd like to show you just one more. This is UNWTO's forecast to the year 2020 and it is most definitely a positive forecast, with a prediction for international arrivals to rise to around 1.6 billion within the next nine years.
One thing is clear – with the predicted rise in global travel, it's even more important to understand the trends behind this growth. Of course it's very difficult to summarize all the trends emerging in the world of tourism, since tourists, as consumers, are constantly evolving, reflecting the changing society to which they belong, but here we’ve tried to summarize some of the biggest underlying factors.
The first of these trends, are of course, the demographic changes which will have important consequences us in the decades to come. Of course the major trend to watch is population growth itself, from 6.9 billion in 2009 to 8.3 billion in 2030. We are all aware of the effects of increased life expectancy in the West. For example, within the next 4 years, around 25% of Europe’s population will be over the age of 65. But at the other end of the scale, there are important changes taking place in the youth demographic, as the age bracket for youth travel expands, and growth is fuelled by young travellers from emerging economies.
As we have seen, the UNWTO forecasts a global increase in travel, but what is important is that this is being driven by increasingly large sections of the global population that see travel as a right, and not a luxury. It's becoming a perfectly normal part of peoples' lives and pressure on leisure time is pushing the working population to take shorter breaks, more often.
One of the long term effects of this increase in travel as been the extraordinary diversification of destinations, which has produced intense competition. To demonstrate this more clearly, I would like to show you a very interesting table, which brings together data from the past 60 years ....
The four columns here show a ranking of the top 15 destination countries by international tourist arrivals from 1950 to 2009 and the market share that they have occupied during this time. Firstly, we can see that in 1950, the world’s top five destinations had a combined market share of 71%, and 60 years later, the top five receiving countries have a combined share of only 31%. As we move through the decades we can see the growth of tourism -from 25 million to 880 million international arrivals- as well as constant variation in those top 15 countries. But perhaps the most interesting figures are the ones that are circled . In 1950 the ‘other countries’ not listed in the top 15 only had only 3% of the market share. Today, this figure is 44%. This evolution is important from an economic and social perspective because it shows how mass tourism has expanded dramatically in the last 60 years, while spreading wealth more equally around the world, with tourists reaching areas which were completely inaccessible only 60 years ago. And of course, this is important from a social perspective, since every one of these journeys represents some kind of cultural exchange – underlining the important contribution tourism makes towards spreading peace and understanding across the world.
One of the consequences of the massive increase in travel has been that tourism has become a central part of the debate on global sustainability. This is because the negative impacts of tourism have inevitably become more obvious. Many of you who work in development and ' voluntourism' will be aware of problems such as overcrowding at heritage sites, the destruction of natural habitats, labour exploitation, social inequality and of course our contribution to climate change. At the World Tourism Organization, we are dedicated to bringing the public and private sectors together at the highest level to reduce the negative impacts of tourism and ensure that generations to come will be able to enjoy quality tourism experiences which respect our fellow human beings and the environment.
Moving on to technology - through your experiences in marketing to young people you will be accutely aware of the need for quality information about your customers, suppliers and the state of the economy in order to remain competitive. You will also be aware of the large array of potential sources of this information and, of course the importance of sharing it between destinations and businesses. Fortunately, we have more and more tools to help us do this and what has become clear, is that the entire tourism system, in particular the customer-supplier relationship is being shaken up by the expansion of new technology and in particular, social networks.
So, what does this mean for us??
Evidently, the tasks and challenges that lay ahead of us are complex, though here, we try to define a framework for ensuring that businesses and destinations can stay competitive. This means. Sharing knowledge, Being serious about sustainability And building public private partnerships
We live in an age where high quality information and its management is vital to conduct business effectively. This is especially so in tourism, since it’s a sector which is so interrelated with other sectors of the economy. Working together to share information on visitors, their profiles and new opportunities for development is no longer an option – it's vital if destinations want to stay ahead and compete in the fierce open market I described earlier. UNWTO provides a range of market data and intelligence which you can access through our website...
According to the definition of sustainability provided by UNWTO and UNEP, it means not just protecting the environment but also ensuring viable economic activity that benefits all stakeholders and, of course the host community. To help destinations and businesses ensure their activities are ethical and sustainable, the World Tourism Organization has produced the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism….
The Code was a dopted unanimously by all UNWTO Member States in 1999 It was recognised by UN General Assembly in 2001 And has been translated into 43 languages.
The Global Code of Ethics for Tourism provides a guide for us all on... :
Finally, I would like to underline the importance of public private cooperation in bringing us closer to achieving the objectives that I have talked about this morning. Of course, this type of collaboration is absolutely necessary in any area of economic activity, but it is even more visible in the world of tourism because tourism so very closely interlinked with other sectors of the economy.
And with this in mind, I'd like to bring our focus back to youth tourism. Because it is clear that to Understand the market, highlight the importance of the sector to governments, strengthen support across government agencies, build long-term relationships with future customers, carry out effective marketing and link youth travel properly to other sectors such as education or urban development depend on well-organized cooperation between the public and private sectors. These are some of the recommendations of WYSE and UNWTO in our new report 'The Power of Youth Tourism‘ , a document I’ve been very proud to work on in collaboration with WYSE.
Please do pick up a copy at the conference or visit the Affiliate Member section of the UNWTO website where it's available to download for free. Thank you all very much for listening and I wish you a very successful conference. Moltes gracies y bona tarda.
World Tourism Trends and the Way Ahead - WYSETC Convention 2011 Barcelona
World tourism trends and the way ahead Peter Jordan , External Relations UNWTO Affiliate Members Programme WYSETC Global Conference Barcelona, Spain – 21 Sept 2011
<ul><li>Specialized agency of the United Nations </li></ul><ul><li>161 Member States, 400+ Affiliate Members </li></ul><ul><li>Leading international organization in travel & tourism since 1975 </li></ul>
UNWTO Affiliate Members: A broad representation of global tourism
<ul><li>Global forum for tourism policy issues </li></ul><ul><li>Building awareness of the importance of ethical and competitive tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Committed to the M illennium D evelopment G oals… </li></ul>
<ul><li>4 th biggest export activity worldwide </li></ul><ul><li>US$1 trillion export income worldwide in 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>6-7% of global employment </li></ul><ul><li>The primary source of income for many developing countries </li></ul>
<ul><li>EUROPE </li></ul><ul><li>2010 growth: + 6.7% </li></ul><ul><li>2011 forecast: + 4-5% </li></ul><ul><li>Slower recovery due to uncertain economic conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer confidence still affected by the economic crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Record-breaking arrivals in Germany, Turkey and Croatia </li></ul><ul><li>Slow but steady recovery in US outbound market </li></ul>
<ul><li>AMERICAS </li></ul><ul><li>2010 growth: +7% </li></ul><ul><li>2011 forecast: 4-6% </li></ul><ul><li>Return to growth in the US driving a general trend </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment still a concern. Domestic vacations popular </li></ul><ul><li>Strongest results in South America (Argentina +22%) </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil 3 rd largest outbound market (+51% spending in 2010) </li></ul><ul><li>2010 natural disasters only expected to have a temporary effect </li></ul>
<ul><li>ASIA-PACIFIC </li></ul><ul><li>2010 growth: +13% </li></ul><ul><li>2011 forecast: +7-9% </li></ul><ul><li>Strongest growth region for 2 years running </li></ul><ul><li>China responsible for 1 in 4 departures in 2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Booming economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rising middle class </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Restrictions eased </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment in infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sharp fall in Japan due to March earthquake though not all country affected </li></ul>
<ul><li>MIDDLE EAST </li></ul><ul><li>2010 growth: +14% </li></ul><ul><li>2011 forecast: +7-10% (?) </li></ul><ul><li>Economic growth returning following 2009 shock </li></ul><ul><li>Increasingly important air hub </li></ul><ul><li>In spite of unrest, many destinations unaffected and open for business </li></ul><ul><li>AFRICA </li></ul><ul><li>2010 growth: +6.4% </li></ul><ul><li>2011 forecast: +4-7% </li></ul><ul><li>Boosted by high commodity prices </li></ul><ul><li>South Africa boosted by Soccer World Cup (+15% arrivals) = high expectations </li></ul>
2000-2010: Average annual growth rate Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) World average growth 3.3 % 2000-2010
Most arrivals within own region Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1.0 bn 882 mn 1.56 bn Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision: World Forecast 528 mn 940 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
<ul><li>1 . Demographic changes </li></ul><ul><li>Population growth: 6.9bn ( 2009 ), 8.3bn ( 2030 ) </li></ul><ul><li>25 of Europe’s population aged 65+ by 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Young and affluent travelling for the first time from emerging markets </li></ul>
<ul><li>2 . Global increase in travel </li></ul><ul><li>1.6bn journeys by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>More people see tourism as a right </li></ul>
<ul><li>3 . A more competitive global market </li></ul><ul><li>New travellers, new destinations </li></ul>
<ul><li>5 . Innovation and technological change </li></ul><ul><li>Sharing knowledge: the value of networks </li></ul><ul><li>New technology changing the tourism system </li></ul><ul><li>The right of access to Internet </li></ul>
The importance of tourism in regional development Where do we go from here?
<ul><li>Staying competitive by: </li></ul><ul><li>Sharing knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>2. Being serious about sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>3. Building public-private sector cooperation </li></ul>
1 Sharing knowledge <ul><li>Essential to conduct business effectively </li></ul><ul><li>Allows you and your partners to adapt quickly to changing demand and identify opportunities </li></ul>
4 Public-private cooperation <ul><li>An over-riding necessity which brings mutual benefits: </li></ul><ul><li>To all actors </li></ul><ul><li>To all levels of government </li></ul>With the greatest range of participation (civil society, universities, NGOs)
<ul><li>It’s essential for developing youth travel! </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding the market </li></ul><ul><li>Highlighting its importance to governments </li></ul><ul><li>Strengthening support (visa issuance..) </li></ul><ul><li>Building long-term relations with young people </li></ul><ul><li>Effective marketing </li></ul><ul><li>Linking youth travel with other sectors </li></ul>
For more information: www.platma.org pjordan @ unwto.org