Complex Games | Patrick Collings 2012

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This is a presentation I delivered at the Chief Marketing Officers Conference in Johannesburg in September 2012. The presentation deals with the development of strategy for an era of chronic volatility, uncertainity, complexity and ambiguity (known as VUCA). The presentation focuses on scenario planning and agile | adaptive strategies as ways to move forward in a VUCA environment. The first part also deals with the concept of what is branding (I argue it is simply the relation between an organisation and its intended, or unintended, audience) and that brand positioning is in fact business strategy.

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Complex Games | Patrick Collings 2012

  1. 1. Complex Games CMO Conference 2012 Patrick Collings Sagacite
  2. 2. & strategy
  3. 3. 52% feel unprepared for complexity 57% feel unprepared for decreasing brand loyalty 56% 71%feel unprepared for growth opportunities feel unprepared for data explosion 68% 73% feel unprepared for social media of CEOs believe CMOs lack business credibility
  4. 4. “Marketing as a function is in some danger of being marginalized” - Donald Lehmann, Executive Director of Marketing Science Institute
  5. 5. strategy, finance, information technology marketing
  6. 6. my view on brands and brand strategy
  7. 7. organisation
  8. 8. OfferingProcurementProductionStaffingFinancingSales ChannelsPackagingMarketing Communicationetc
  9. 9. ...and if they were bic pens
  10. 10. organisation
  11. 11. therefore...
  12. 12. brand strategy equalsbusiness strategy
  13. 13. Complex Games
  14. 14. By Toni Verdú Carbó
  15. 15. agenda VUCA Management Thinking Scenario Planning Agile | Adaptive
  16. 16. VUCA
  17. 17. the world is facing increasedturbulence over the next decade andbeyond caused by leadership changein emerging markets, major policyshifts by governments, increasedarmed conflict, interlinked economies,budget cuts by local and nationalgovernment Global Trends 2025: A Transformed Worldreleased by the National Intelligence Council
  18. 18. economic hardships continue and expand by alex e proimos
  19. 19. VUCA has not just impacted on countries photo by Beacon Radio
  20. 20. volatility, uncertainity, complexity and ambiguity are also keeping executives awake at night image by Herr Kaczmarek
  21. 21. Photo by Eduardo Zarate
  22. 22. these challenges are faced with strategic mindsets that are often defined as...
  23. 23. Photo by Alex E Proimos
  24. 24. photo by paul watson
  25. 25. photo by SomeDriftwood
  26. 26. strategy is a journey not a destination image by alice popkorn
  27. 27. constant motion image by hans hamburger
  28. 28. E X P A N D Y O U R V I E W photo by jef safi
  29. 29. embrace and plan for uncertainity photo by martino
  30. 30. “Giving up the illusion that you can predict the future is a very liberating moment. Allyou can do is to give yourself the capacity to respond to the only certainty in life - which is uncertainty. The creation of that capability is the purpose of strategy” Lord John Browne, former CEO BP
  31. 31. time to approach with fresh eyes and a new mindset by maessive
  32. 32. return of scenario planning
  33. 33. photo by Templar1307 Roots in WW II military planning
  34. 34. scenario planning’smost famous hour
  35. 35. approaches Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network The French School The Futures Group Wilson and Ralston Lindgren and Bandhold Reference scenarios Decision Strategies International Procedural scenarios Industry scenarios Performance-based scenarios
  36. 36. Start with a questionIsolate the relevant decisions that need to be madeGather the informationFocus on the question but not at the detriment of the unexpected andlook for disconfirming evidenceIdentify the driversIdentify the driving forces that influence the outcome of eventsComposing the plotsBuild plots that look at different, realistic outcome of the drivers /information and their implications
  37. 37. scenarios give us realistic alternative futures image by assbach
  38. 38. allow us to seebeyond the headlights photo by victor cavazzoni
  39. 39. uncertainty forecast scenarios hopenow distance into the future
  40. 40. and avoid panic when the future deals us a bad handimage by luna di rimmel
  41. 41. help connects the dots picture by gato-gato-gato
  42. 42. relaxation of monetary banking policy keeping regulations interest rates low consumer’s limited financial instruments knowledge that shifted risk off balance sheets evaporation 2008 of reasonable credit Financial standards Meltdown
  43. 43. Photo by Stuart Chalmers
  44. 44. agile | adaptive strategies
  45. 45. 8in no particular order
  46. 46. #1 embrace change
  47. 47. #2 take incremental steps
  48. 48. #3 keep looping
  49. 49. #4 acknowledge risk
  50. 50. #5 work with portfolios
  51. 51. #6 continual market immersion
  52. 52. #7budget with insight and flexibility
  53. 53. #8top down organizational alignment
  54. 54. Ordnung braucht nurder dumme ein geniebeherrscht das chaos
  55. 55. Order is needed onlyby fools, the genius controls the chaos

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