Precious Metals 1


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Precious Metals 1

  1. 1. Report On Precious metals Prepared by: Piyush Agarwal Mba ( Et)
  2. 2. PRECIOUS METALS GOLD OVERVIEW: Gold prices averaged $973/toz in 2009, up 12 percent from $872/toz in 2008. Prices have climbed for eight consecutive years and are up 3.6 fold since 2001. Although prices slipped to $760/toz in November 2008 amid the financial crisis and dollar appreciation, they resumed their climb on renewed weakness of the dollar and investor concerns about inflation, surging above $1,200/toz in December 2009. An important driver was the growth in physically backed exchange traded funds (ETFs). In 2009, gold ETF holdings rose by 563 tons or 47 percent— equivalent to 23 percent of global gold mine production. Near-term prices are expected to remain relatively firm, given investor concerns about the dollar, inflation, and macroeconomic-financial conditions. Over the longer term, prices are expected to fall back toward$850/toz as high prices discourage demand and stimulate new supplies. In early November 2009 the IMF sold 200 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (and subsequently12 tons to Sri Lanka and Mauritius). The IMF is authorized to sell a further 191.3 tons—either off-market or, if sold into the market, within the provisions of the third five-year Central Bank Gold Agreement which began in September 2009 and limits total annual sales to 400 tons. Gold is the one commodity of which essentially all production ends up in above-ground inventory and for which investor sentiment thus remains a key determinant of prices. High prices will restrain physical demand and stimulate new supplies from mines and scrap. Mine supply is projected to rise modestly, as prices are expected to remain conducive to expanding capacity. Though producer hedging has fallen, new projects may require hedging for project finance, thereby adding to supply.
  3. 3. Global Gold Production (metric tons) Countries 2005 2006 2007 2008 US 256 252 239 229 China 209 240 270 222 South Africa 297 275 255 220 Australia 263 247 245 215 Peru 208 203 170 180 Russian fed. 163 159 157 157 Canada 121 104 102 96 Ghana 67 70 76 79 Uzbekistan 84 77 73 73 PNG 69 54 56 67 Indonesia 139 80 105 63 Mexico 30 39 44 50 Brazil 38 43 50 49 Mali 44 50 40 41 Chile 40 42 42 39 Argentina 28 44 42 38 Philippines 38 36 39 37 Tanzania 48 41 40 37 Colombia 36 16 15 34 Kazakhstan 18 21 21 21 Guinea 14 11 13 20 Kyrgyzstan 16 9 9 17 World 2434 2316 2281 2161 Source: world commodity report China became the world’s largest Gold producer in 2007 and held that position in 2008, and with output up 13% in the first seven months of 2009, it seems to be extending its lead. South Africa continues to see output fall, with H1’09 production falling and output in July off 7.6% year on year. Australia’s mine production is on the increase again as is Russian production that rose 21.7% in H1’09 to 89.2 tones. In Peru and Indonesia output also increased. 2009’s production is expected to be around 2,488 tons, up around 3% from 2008’s level of 2,416 tones and this is expected to climb next year by around 2% to 2,537 tones. The extra 50 tones will come from the numerous expansions and new mines scheduled to come on stream predominantly in Australia and Canada. However, even if production rises to this level it will still leave mine output below the level reached in 1998.
  4. 4. Global Gold Consumption (metric tons) Countries 2005 2006 2007 2008 India 695 633 684 578 China 258 270 327 342 Turkey 303 242 277 237 Italy 285 227 218 180 US 219 211 179 176 Japan 164 175 178 164 Saudi Arab& Yemen 125 90 100 87 Korea Rep. 83 82 86 78 Russian Fed. 61 65 79 76 Egypt 71 50 57 65 Indonesia 87 65 63 61 Switerzland 56 61 62 59 Malaysia 74 58 61 57 UAE 55 47 49 46 Germany 50 49 49 46 Pakistan 64 54 50 44 Iran 41 36 41 41 Thailand 69 53 48 40 Canada 27 22 22 40
  5. 5. Singapore 30 29 30 28 Taiwan, China 32 31 30 28 Austria 9 6 7 26 World 3291 2936 3076 2850 Source: world commodity report GOLD STATISTICS1 U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY [All values are in metric tons (t) gold unless otherwise noted] Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Primary production 258 256 252 238 233 Secondary production 45 40 44 66 87 Imports 283 341 263 170 231 Exports 257 324 389 519 568 Shipments 3 0 0 189 220 Apparent consumption 295 277 130 214 183 Unit value ($/t) - 14,300,000 19,500,000 22,400,000 28,000,000 Unit value (98$/t) - 11,900,000 15,800,000 17,600,000 21,200,000 World production 2,420 2,470 2,370 2,360 2,260 Gold World Wide Reserves (MT) Mine Production Reserves Countries 2008 2009 United States 233 210 3,000 Australia 215 220 5,800 Brazil 50 50 2,000 Canada 95 100 1,000 Chile 39 40 2,000 China 285 300 1,900 Ghana 75 85 1,600 Indonesia 60 100 3,000 Mexico 50 55 1,400 Papua New Guinea 62 65 1,200
  6. 6. Peru 180 180 1,400 Russia 176 185 5,000 South Africa 213 210 6,000 Uzbekistan 85 85 1,700 Other countries 446 460 10,000 World total (rounded) 2,260 2,350 47,000 Source: world bullion outlook 2009 South East Asian Economies: The demand for gold is expected to arise from the resurgent South East Asian Economics. After the recovery from the recent low levels of economic activity, these economies have began returning to their pre crisis levels prompting rise in demand for gold and jewellery. The overall demand for gold from these economies, will, however, depend on the extent to which the economies will go for gold as a storage and investment product. Indian demand: According to the World Gold Council's latest, "Gold Demand Trends Report", gold tonnage off- take in the fourth quarter of 2009 totaled 180.7 tons worth US$ 6.39 billion, up 17 per cent from 154.4 tons in the previous quarter and up 13 per cent from 159.6 tons in the fourth quarter of 2008. • India is the largest consumer of gold jewellery in the world, accounting for about 20 per cent of global gold consumption • The Reserve Bank of India, bought 200 metric tones of gold worth US$ 6.7 billion from the International Monetary Fund in October 2009 • A small village town called Chavakkad in central Kerala, a southern Indian state, consumes 20 per cent of all gold sold in the country. CURRENCY MOVEMENTS : Due to currency movements while the dollar prices of the gold are weak the local prices are expected to rise in a number of gold consuming countries, noticeably in Euro zone, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia. MARKET BALANCE SUMMARY: Demand for gold is expected to be strong during 2010, driven by growing demand for jewellery in China and India as well as an increase in European and US investment in the context of continued economic instability, sovereign risk and the threat of a ‘double dip’ recession. Demand in India and China will continue to grow, driven by jewellery demand, in spite of high local currency gold prices. In Q1 2010, India was the strongest performing market as total
  7. 7. consumer demand surged 698% to 193.5 tones. In China, demand proved resilient; demand increased 11% in Q1 2010 to 105.2 tones. This strong demand is despite high local gold prices, which on May 12 in India increased to Rs 56,032/0z, the highest level for the year, while at the same time in China prices reached an all- time high of RMB8,480/oz, suggesting that consumers in India and China are becoming accustomed to higher gold prices. Concerns over Greece’s public finances and debt contagion fears in Europe have led to strong buying in particular for gold coins, bars and gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) during May which may show up in the Q2 2010 figures. While momentum in ETF tonnage paused during Q1 2010, gold ETF flows started to rise strongly again in April and May as investors sought less volatile investments in which to protect their funds against economic turmoil. On 20 May, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) held a record 1,200 tonnes, with a value of US$46.88 billion. Factors Determining Gold prices Outlook: • Cost & Margins: The long term gold price can also be determined on a long-run cost and margins basis. Using long-run forecast cost inflation of 4% off an industry average cost base of US$338/oz. Together with a long-run industry average margin of 37% implies a long-term price of US$650/oz. The calculation is shown below: The analysis is sensitive to estimates of the sustainable component of costs, and cost inflation rates, but scenarios point to a long-term price of between US$600 and 650/oz. • Incentive Price: Given gold's declining production profile over the next few years incentive prices have more relevance than in other commodities. We have assessed 90 tentative, possible, probable and high probable projects capex and capacities. We have assumed industry average project capex of US$3570/oz falls by 20%, yet average project capacity of ~317koz pa remains unchanged. Average project mine life is 13 years, but we have assumed this is extended to 17 years through resources to reserve conversion. Industry average costs are assumed in line with our long-term cost assumptions discussed above. The long-term prices required to generate 15%-20% IRR on new projects ranges between US$950/oz and US$1150/oz.
  8. 8. • Investment Drivers: Investment drivers are becoming a more important determinant of the gold price than mine economics. In the carts below we present the relationships with the major investment drivers: interest rates, inflation and the US dollar. We conclude that the latter, the long-run secular decline in the US dollar, has been the most important driver of the gold price and we expect this to continue.
  9. 9. • US Dollar — Decline: The secular decline in the USD has been the most important driver of the strength in the gold price. The following Figures show the inverse correlation between the gold price and the USD against the Euro, Yen and SDR. Abatement of downward pricing pressure from central bank selling in recent years has allowed the USD driver to become more apparent.
  10. 10. In addition the influence of the weakening USD trend, the USD/ gold price relationship is shifting.
  11. 11. From a long-term perspective we expect the USD to remain weak. Our long-term currency forecasts are: O EURUSD1.31 E USDJPY 94 These levels lend support to a long-term gold price of around USD800/Oz, based on the relationships that have prevailed over the last 3 years, although a considerable higher price is indicated by more recent relationships. FUTURE PRICES: With the U.S. dollar in a freefall and global gold demand rising, the precious metal will likely continue its bullish trend through at least the first half of 2010. It could rise as high as $2,000 an ounce, which would represent a 73% gain from current record levels. GOLD INDIAN SCENARIO: In India, gold has traditionally played a multi-faceted role. Apart from being used as an adornment, it has been treated as an investment and also as a hedge against currency depreciation. India is the World’s largest consumer of gold and growing Indian economy and normal monsoons are the factors that are boosting the demand for gold, which usually peaks during the festival and wedding season that begins in Sep. In India the rising demand in gold is met through channels other than the official ones also. One fourth of the World’s gold consumption is consumed in India and 80-85% of Indian consumption is met through imports.
  12. 12. The ore content in the Kolar Gold fields has come down drastically and mining is no longer economical. The Bharat Gold Mines is closing down and Hutti Gold Mines (HGML) is operating at a very high cost. With the domestic gold production likely to be nil in the near future, India will soon have to rely entirely on imports to fulfill the huge domestic demand. Conclusion & Forecast: Gold is going through a very interesting time, but there are a multitude of factors influencing the price some of which are quite contradictory such as the presence of deflation and the fear of inflation. We also have an uneasy feeling that after the near catastrophic events seen over the past twelve months, the sharp recovery seen since March seems too good to be true and for that reason it probably is. Indeed given the massive governments’ stimulus packages and bailouts mainly paid for with borrowed and printed money, there is considerable uncertainty as to what lies ahead. The global imbalance between those countries that have massive dollar debt and those with huge dollar reserves, is also coming to a head as the US seems set on a path to devalue the dollar by means of quantitative easing. In addition, the weak dollar is prompting competitive currency devaluation and with numerous former ‘hard’ currencies trying to lose value, it is not surprising that faith in fiat currencies is waning and those with money are looking to diversify into assets with intrinsic value, of which Gold and other commodities are top of the list. Indeed this might well be what is driving base metals higher, even though demand is weak and stockpiles are mounting. The fact US dollar creditors are talking about the need for another global reserve currency shows that they are losing faith in the dollar. Overall, given the parlous condition of the world’s financial markets in recent years, it is doubtful that the short-sharp asset-bubble deflation seen in the second half of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, resolved the matter completely. There are still many unsolved problems and imbalances that need to be settled and as there does not seem to be any easy way to fix them, the financial system and the heavily indebted countries are likely to experience more hardship in the future. The Western financial system has always had been founded on confidence, and in 2008 this confidence was shattered. The rebound across markets this year has restored some hope but with many of the underlying issues unresolved, this new dawn may prove false. If events take another turn for the worse, the fear seen in 2008 is likely to be renewed and another flight to safety could well keep the bull market in Gold go ing for a considerable while longer and a take prices considerably higher. It seems likely that there is still a big window of opportunity for Go ld to shine in the months ahead. At some stage, the problems facing the global economy, especially those in the West, will be solved and a return to normality will unfold. When that process begins, safe-haven assets are likely to be sold. However until such time, Gold is likely to remain highly soughtafter as a store of wealth and we would not be surprised to see Gold prices rise to, perhaps significantly, new highs. There are likely to be periods of widespread risk reduction that carry Gold prices lower too, but each dip is expected to attract strong scale down buying from investors and fabricators. Overall, we would expect the bulk of trading between now and the end of 2010 to be within the $850/oz to $1,400/oz range.
  13. 13. . (Tonnes)
  14. 14. SILVER: Overview: For years the silver market has been characterized by falling demand in the photographic industry and tepid jewellery off take, while supply has seen rapid growth. The resulting market surplus has thus risen from 1,800t in 2000 to an estimated 7,200t in 2010. Under normal circumstances such growth in supply relative to demand would see prices under extreme downward pressure, but investment demand has soared since the launch of the first silver-backed ETF in 2006, and now accounts for more than 400 Moz (12,440t) of silver held in bullion bank vaults. Physical investment in the form of coins and bars has also helped support prices in the face of this explosive growth in supply. Price support has increasingly come to depend on investment demand more than industrial demand. However, new and emerging end uses for silver could well pick up the baton from photography as far as silver industrial demand is concerned. We estimate these new end uses, comprising solar, medical, textile, radio frequency identification, water purification, and food hygiene, among others, will more than offset the decline in photographic consumption and lead to the silver market surplus eroding significantly by 2020. The degree to which the current surplus falls depends on a number of factors, including the growth in these new areas of demand, the response by the investment community and growth in mine supply. Silver World Mine Production & Reserve (MT) Mine production Reserves Countries 2008 2009 2009 United States 1,230 1,230 25,000 Australia 1,930 1,800 31,000 Bolivia 1,110 1,360 18,000 Canada 730 700 16,000 Chile 1,400 2,000 70,000 China 2,800 3,000 34,000 Mexico 3,240 2,500 37,000 Peru 3,690 3,900 59,000 Poland 1,190 1,200 55,000 Russia 1,300 1,300 NA Other countries 2,680 2,360 50,000 World total (rounded) 21,300 21,400 400,000 Source: Ministry of Metals outlook World Resources: Silver was obtained as a byproduct from processing and smelting copper, gold, and lead-zinc ores. Ores from these polymetallic deposits account for more than two-thirds of U.S. and world resources of silver; the remaining silver resources are associated with veins and submicroscopic gold deposits in which gold is the primary commodity. Most recent silver discoveries have been associated with gold occurrences; however, base-metal occurrences that
  15. 15. contain byproduct silver will continue to account for a significant share of future reserves and resources. Peru, Mexico, and China are the world’s leading producers of silver, in descending order of production. Silver supply demand scenario (MT) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Silver supply Mine Production 595.6 634.4 641.6 646.1 670.6 Global Govt. sales 82.6 61.7 68 77.7 42.3 Old Silver Scrap 191.6 181.1 187.3 188 181.6 Total supply 869.8 877.2 896.9 911.8 894.5 Demand Industrial application 351.2 367.1 409.3 430 455.3 Photography 196.1 181 164.8 145.8 128.3 Jewellery and Silverware 276.7 247.5 249.6 224.9 222.2 Coins and medals 35.3 41.1 40.6 39.8 37.8 Total Demand 859.3 836.7 864.4 840.5 843.7 Source: Ministry of metals outlook In recent years, the main world demand for silver is no longer monetary, but industrial. With the growing use of silver in photography and electronics, industrial demand for silver accounts for roughly 85% of the total demand for silver. Though Silver has a long and distinguished history as being the metal of commerce, it has shifted roles in recent years to be more of an industrial metal than a precious metal. The single largest use of Silver is for industrial purposes, with the electronics industry making up the lion's share of this demand. Jewelry and Silverware is the second largest component, with more demand from the flatware industry than from the jewelry industry in recent years. The photography industry is a large user of Silver. Silver is an important ingredient in both the manufacturing of film, as well as in film processing. Silver coinage accounts for only a small portion of the demand for silver in recent years. Silver is first and foremost an industrial metal. Silver components are found in everything from light switches and circuit breakers, to personal computers, stereos, telephones, microwave ovens and automobiles. Jewelry and silverware demand has been steadily decreasing as a percentage of total use of Silver for many years, since manufacturing and electronics industrial uses of Silver increase. Though Silver is often thought of as a precious metal, in recent years the fastest growing segment of demand and use for silver has been from industry, hence we tend to view Silver as more of an industrial metal than as a precious metal. India, the largest consumer of silver, is gearing up to start hallmarking of the white precious metal by April. India annually consumes around 4,000 tones of silver, with the rural areas accounting for the bulk of the sales.
  16. 16. According to GFMS, total global silver fabrication grew 1 percent in 2007 to 843.7 Moz. In fact, in the period since the technology related slump in 2001, industrial applications have added an impressive 120.1 Moz to silver demand. A key factor behind the increase last year was the more than 6 percent rise in the electrical and Silver 9 electronics sector, which broke the 200 Moz mark for the first time. India, China and the United States accounted for 70 percent of the world rise in all industrial uses, while Germany, Italy and France also posted gains. Total industrial demand reached 54 percent of total global silver fabrication demand in 2007. Silverware demand fell by a modest 4 percent in 2007 to 58.8 Moz, as losses in India, Europe and Mexico were partially countered by gains for Russia and China. Photographic demand continued to decrease, falling by 11 percent in 2007 to 128.3 Moz. The bulk of the decline was accounted for by lower consumer demand for color film, this sector being most affected by further inroads from digital photography. Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Mine Production 1,740 1,350 1,240 1,250 1,230 1,160 1,280 1,230 Primary production 2,640 2,580 2,580 1,140 2,530 2,210 791 779 Secondary production Imports 3,340 4,300 4,510 4,100 4,540 4,840 5,000 4,680 Exports 783 680 181 422 341 1,670 797 685 Stocks 3,490 3,510 3,680 4,220 3,970 4,220 4,350 4,380 Apparent consumption 6,780 7,300 8,000 6,700 6,140 4,620 6,880 5,950 140,00 148,00 207,00 550,00 Unit value ($/t) 0 0 157,000 0 236,000 373,000 0 528,700 Unit value 129,00 134,00 178,00 433,00 (98$/t) 0 0 139,000 0 197,000 302,000 0 398,000 World production 18,900 18,800 18,800 20,000 20,800 20,300 21,100 21,300 Source: world global forum World supply & demand balance, (MT) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Supply Mine supply 21,398 22,058 22,793 23,967 Recycling – Jewellery 3,268 3,350 3,431 3,510 Recycling – Photographic 3,121 2,794 2,412 2,198 Recycling - Coin Melt 141 187 195 169 Recycling - Other Industrial 6,421 6,422 5,940 5,495 Government Disposals 500 500 250 350 Total Supply 34,849 35,310 35,021 35,689
  17. 17. Demand Jewellery and Silverware 7,784 7,068 6,971 7,218 Photographic 4,327 3,553 3,259 3,019 Electrical/Electronics 6,600 6,260 6,385 6,612 Brazing Alloys 1,293 1,270 1,437 1,459 Catalysts 1,516 1,357 1,391 1,453 Others: 3,198 3,017 3,295 3,655 Solar Panels 603 501 568 628 Water Purification 846 855 898 942 Wood Preservatives 0 0 0 0 Batteries 589 560 657 756 Mirrors/Reflective Glass 515 487 584 701 Plasma Screens 413 372 288 209 Food Hygiene 61 73 88 132 Medical Applications 61 64 76 90 Radio Frequency Tags 36 36 65 118 Bearings 16 14 15 16 Detox, chemicals 8 9 10 10 Fibre/textiles 50 48 47 52 ETF 2,325 4,088 2,500 2,500 Coins 1,470 1,902 2,568 2,440 Total Demand 28,512 28,517 27,805 28,356 Residual (Supply less demand) 6,337 6,794 7,216 7,333 Source: world global forum
  18. 18. Future demand: Silver mine supply is relatively price inelastic and largely detached from the fundamental supply-demand aspects of the silver market. This mine supply is set to grow steadily throughout the next decade, largely due to the broader growth in gold and base metals’ mine output, because silver is largely mined as a primary as well as a co- and by-product. About 30% of total annual silver output is from primary production, with 15%-20% as a co-product and the balance a byproduct. Primary supply is set to fall to a low of 23% by 2020, as co- and byproduct silver mine supply becomes more dominant. However, will this extra mine supply be sufficient to meet projected demand growth, considering these new end uses? Notwithstanding declining photographic off take – since there will inevitably be a like-for-like fall in photographic recycling, albeit somewhat lagged – we estimate that these new end users will grow at a combined compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of more than 12% in the next 10 years. ETF demand may grow in response, as these new end uses come to the fore and the shrinking of the global silver surplus becomes more evident. The silver price is therefore almost certain to rise in our view – but to what extent must be uncertain, simply because a substantial price rise would inevitably threaten some of the new end uses that are developing. The higher the silver price rise, the more some of these new silver consuming technologies would seek to substitute the metal with cheaper products. But tighter silver market fundamentals are very likely to fuel investment demand growth. Strong silver mine supply growth will therefore be critical to avoid any potential market deficit ahead, but at an estimated CAGR of 2.4% in the next decade, from more than 22,000t in 2009 to more than 28,500t in 2020, keeping supply running well ahead of potential demand could be a very tall order.
  19. 19. Our supply-side estimate includes advanced projects as well as existing mines and mine expansions. It also includes identified uncommitted projects that might come online in the next 10 years, and it is these latter projects that will determine the market balance by 2020. Should none of the uncommitted ounces be brought online, but ETF demand dip slightly, to say 1,500-2,500t/year, then we estimate a market surplus of just 800t in 2020 (light blue line in chart below). If ETF demand grows to more than 2009 levels (more than 4,000t) in the period 2014-2020, then we estimate a market deficit of as much as 2,400t in 2020 (grey line). But if mine supply, including uncommitted output, all comes online without delay, and ETF demand declines to as low as 1,500t/year, then our market balance will show a surplus of about 4,900t (dark blue line). The pink line market balance scenario considers that all the uncommitted ounces of mine supply come online while investment demand rises. It is therefore evident that, from current levels, the silver market balance is trending down from a large surplus to either something more manageable or even into a deficit. Demand growth in the new end use sectors, as well as investment demand (coins, bar hoardings or ETFs), therefore will have an increasingly critical influence over the silver market balance in the medium to longer term – and prices.
  20. 20. New Opprtunities In Silver Market: The identified new end use sectors that will come to determine the silver balance ahead are reliant on silver’s unique properties, which have been understood and utilized for millennia. Among these unique properties are the fact that silver is the best conductor of all metals, and that its antimicrobial properties offer perhaps excellent protection against infection and diseases. These properties may see silver gain recognition as the greenest and cleanest of all metals, leaving it best placed to tackle certain important problems that face the world this century, such as improvements in security measures, climate change, health issues, and the ageing Western population.
  21. 21. The chart above shows our estimates as to how these new uses will evolve in the next 10 years and how much additional silver they could potentially consume. It should be noted that these projections are very conservative; it is quite possible that demand may exceed our base case scenario. SILVER-INDIAN SCENARIO:  Silver is recovered as co-product as well as by-product in the country. In India, economically viable native silver deposits are not reported. At Kolar Gold field comlex and Hutti Gold mines in Karnataka, silver was recovered as co-product from smelting and refining of lead, zinc and copper concentrates in other places.  In India, the recent Indian earthquake has raised fears that domestic silver fabrication demand could fall in response to dishoarding and the Govt’s plans to raise taxes in the year 2001, but from a national perspective Indian incomes are likely to record a solid increase in 2001, tempering the impact of these higher taxes.  More favorable economic conditions from the year 2020 are expected to increase the demand growth for silver to an upward trend.
  22. 22. Role of Gold Prices In Silver Trade: The steady increase of investment in silver was heavily influenced by increases in gold prices during the past few months. In general, we find that gold prices tend to lead movements in silver prices. Yet, silver has outperformed gold by a wide margin through 2009. This is not unusual and this relationship can work through several channels. For instance, there are some silver and gold investors who increase their exposure to these precious metals for similar fundamental reasons such as a weakening dollar or an increase in liquidity. Given that silver is cheaper than gold, market participants can substitute into the less expensive alternative. Expansion of Liquidity in the Market: In our view, the recent easing in monetary policy has had an even more pronounced impact on silver prices than exchange rate movements. An increase in liquidity tends to push silver prices up. The link between liquidity and silver prices works through various channels in our view, including the following two: • Uncertainty: Central banks tend to boost the availability of liquidity during economic slowdowns. The appeal of silver as a store of value increases during difficult economic times. Incidentally, this uncertainty is also reflected in recent concerns over the sustainability of equity price rises, which has attracted silver buyers back into the market. • Funding costs: central banks have various options to bring economies back on track and a reflation of asset prices is one measure in their toolboxes. Low interest rates reduce the costs for investors to fund their positions and assets like silver generally benefit from this.
  23. 23. Tipping the Balance In Silver Market: Aggregating the identified new end uses, we estimate that demand from these new sectors will quadruple in the next ten years to at least 230 Moz,– or about 25% of world silver demand, from about 8% today. Mine supply growth, investment demand and future industrial off take growth will all be critical in determining the market balance. Supply growth will be largely independent from the fundamentals affecting the silver market and, despite projected growth in byproduct and co-product output, we doubt that it will meet the growth in demand. Silver’s mid and long-term prospects are therefore more convincingly bullish than they have been for some time. As the current surplus begins to erode over the next few years we expect a reaction among the investment community, with ETF demand likely to hit new records, possibly bringing about a deficit. However under these circumstances, and rising prices, miners will be incentivized to bring on greater supply. The resultant market balance by 2020, we forecast, will see a surplus of about half of today’s, more than 7,000t.
  24. 24. Factors Driving Silver Market: There were major two factors that supported the silver market to rise:  First, economic optimism is increasing, unsurprisingly in the case of China, which continues to post very strong economic data, but also in the US, where employment data is looking better than it has, and which is feeding into consumer confidence.. Base metal prices leapt higher after 24 March, not coincidentally when the gold/silver ratio improved sharply for silver.  Second was clearly the rally in gold, which gathered pace after an indifferent start to the year for the yellow metal. Short Term Outlook: Silver’s volatility means that one moment it can look very strong, with everything going for it, the next fundamentally weak. Recently it has been the former, with base metals, PGMs and the gold price increasing, boosting silver’s industrial demand and its safe-haven/monetary metal demand. Over a slightly longer period, for example since the start of 2010, it hasn’t performed so well, either relative to gold or to the industrial metals. The ETF outflows are curious, and perhaps represent a decision to get out of silver on behalf of one or a few big holders as much as a general trend. According to recent finding and analysis the silver should fall back a little, at least in relation to gold, but if investment demand returns, the market may be surprised again. London fix: $16.50/oz-$18/oz. Conclusion & Forecast: Silver has functioned largely as a cheap proxy for gold in the late stages of gold bull market with the gold/silver ratio rising to 66.2 in 2009 from 63.1 in 2008 as gold prices surpassed US$1,000/ oz. This compares with an average of 62.1 between 2001 and 2009. As gold prices to remain above US$1,000/oz in 2010 and 2011, the investment demand to deliver strong relative performance for silver over this time. As a result, the silver price forecasts for 2010 by 31.6% to U$19.35/oz on an expectation of a return to 62 in the gold/silver ratio. However, the silver prices to fall in line with gold prices in 2011 as rising US interest rates result in an end to the weakening US dollar cycle. Investment demand is a smaller proportion of total demand for silver, at 15%, compared with 38% for gold. Total fabrication demand fell 10% in 2009, largely as a result of the impact of the global financial crisis on electronic and photographic fabrication demand, and will take time to recover given the exposure of these market segments to a sluggish OECD recovery. Furthermore, rising bi-product production from gold, copper, and lead zinc mines should also keep the market well supplied, especially as official sector sales are a much smaller factor in the silver market than in the gold market.
  26. 26. (Tonnes) Year India’s MMTC’s MMTC’s Imports Imports Market Share(%) PLATINUM: OVERVIEW: Platinum prices have been hit hard by the recession, declining from their 2008 highs of $2,301/oz to just below $1,500/oz at present. This correction was initially driven by a liquidation of positions from investors, which was reflected in sharp declines of assets under management in ETFs especially in 2008. In addition, the cyclical slowdown in the car industry meant that platinum demand from auto catalyst producers would likely drop around 33% YoY this year. The platinum market was oversupplied to the tune of 4t (128koz) in 2009. Demand : Most of this year’s demand weakness came from the car industry. Auto catalyst producers reduced their platinum use by 33% YoY or 40 tones. Meanwhile, the market share of the jewellery industry, typically not a major buyer of platinum, has increased significantly, largely driven by China. Given that some of China’s platinum purchases went into stocks, there is a risk that the country’s imports may be somewhat lower next year. Investment demand remains strong, highlighted by the steady increase of assets under management at platinum exchange traded funds. The influence of ETFs on platinum is substantial as each share issued is backed by physical metal, which is locked away and not immediately available to the physical market. The substantial part of the investment demand is accounted for by medium-term investors and thus these buyers can give support to prices going forward. At the same time, the platinum
  27. 27. demand from car producers to bounce back sharply next year, which should also help to erode this year’s surplus. Platinum World Demand(000 of ounces) Countries 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 South Africa 9.9 10.3 10.7 10.4 5.5 3.7 China 56.1 79.7 106.8 133.5 114.5 118.7 India 20.4 21.8 26.4 29 23.4 20.5 Japan 314.5 324.1 308.5 297.5 259.6 225.2 Germany 346.3 349.9 394.8 374.3 397.8 442 USA 642.1 648.7 763 758.6 593.5 427.7 Supply : The ongoing focus on safety issues, rising power costs, and strengthening currency to put upward pressure on South African costs over the medium term. In addition, greater exploitation of deeper
  28. 28. UG@ reef deposits will likely tend to lower the platinum yield from South African mines, and bolster the proportion of other platinum groups metals in the South African product mix. Platinum World Supply(000 of ounces) Countries 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 South Africa 8 8.8 8.3 7.3 7.1 5.4 China 0.7 1.2 7.5 8.9 8.5 6.4 India 0.5 0.7 8 7.9 6.5 4.7 Japan 103.4 100.7 108.7 105.5 91.7 90.3 Germany 53.3 54.2 53 54.2 59 51.4 USA 386.9 352.6 325.7 330.9 316.7 308.6 Production: Platinum miners continue to face a host of problems, including labour unrest, safety issues and uneconomic shafts. Even though some of these issues were offset by the commissioning of new projects, platinum production remains well below peak levels.
  29. 29. Thus this change is not expected in 2010 and together with a strengthening of demand, fundamentals should therefore remain healthy. Hence, the average price forecasts at $1,440/oz in 2010 and $1,750/oz in 2011. Conclusion & Forecast: Although the net autocatalytic demand to remain a mainstay of metal usage over the forecast time horizon, rising from a 40% share in 2009 to 44% in 2015, we expect the increase in investment and chemical-related demand, a resilient jewelry market, and constrained production growth to result in deficit markets until 2015 with positive benefits to medium-term prices.
  30. 30. .
  31. 31. JEWELLERY : OVERVIEW: Gems and Jewellery market is highly unorganized and fragmented with around 96 percent of the total players running family-owned businesses. It is estimated that the country has around 450,000 goldsmiths, 100,000 gold jewellers, 6,000 diamond processing players and 8,000 diamond jewellers. Domestic Diamond Jewellery Demand: The market for diamond stood around US$~billion in 2005, in terms of retail value. Gross domestic product (GDP) has a great significance over the demand for Jewellery in the country, which may help the industry to grow in near future. India ranks on seventh place in the world in terms of diamond Jewellery retail value. Gems and Jewellery Export Items for India (2007 vs 2008) Gems and Jewellery Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Share in % Growth Export Items 2007 2008 2007 2008 Rate in % Cut & polished Diamonds (bonded) 990.34 261.6 5.02 1.23 -73.58 Gold Jewellery 5444.03 5398.93 27.58 25.47 -0.83 Coloured Gemstones 267.91 295.8 1.36 1.4 10.41 Pearls 3.44 4.01 0.02 0.02 16.57 Non-Gold Jewellery 215.8 212.38 1.09 1 -1.58 Synthetic Stones 0.99 1.11 0.01 0.01 12.12
  32. 32. Grand Total 19737.8 21200.1 100 100 7.41 Source: world metals outlook Raw material Import Items for Gems and Jewellery (2007 vs 2008): India Gems and Jewellery Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Share in % Import Items 2007 2008 2007 2008 Growth USD million Rate in % Rough diamonds (total) 9582.69 9423.06 57.11 46.78 -1.67 Rough coloured gemstones 156.25 98.23 0.93 0.49 -37.13 Raw pearls 10.11 7.15 0.06 0.04 -29.28 Rough synthetic stones 11.39 5.33 0.07 0.03 -53.2 Gold Bar 2322.14 2494.31 13.84 12.38 7.41 Silver Bar 20.14 23.06 0.12 0.11 14.5 Gold Jewellery 398.01 325.85 2.37 1.62 -18.13 Non-Gold Jewellery 8.51 32.39 0.05 0.16 280.61 GRAND TOTAL 16780.61 20143.4 100 100 20.04 Source: world metals outlook TOP 10 EXPORT DESTINATION OF INDIAN GEMS AND JEWELLERY Jan-Dec Share in total Jan-Dec Share in total Country 2008 Exports (in %) Country 2007 Exports (in %) Hong Kong 4230.82 19.96 USA 5117.75 25.93 USA 3239.05 15.28 Hong Kong 4681.02 23.72 UAE 3128.69 14.76 UAE 3853.73 19.52 Belgium 1698.37 8.01 Belgium 1817.16 9.21 Israel 803.55 3.79 Israel 1047.26 5.31 Japan 304.9 1.44 Japan 459.32 2.33 Thailand 292.21 1.38 Thailand 381.7 1.93 UK 201.74 0.95 UK 302.2 1.53 Singapore 183.84 0.87 Singapore 198.64 1.01 Australia 95.53 0.45 Australia 131.8 0.67 Import destination of raw material for India
  33. 33. 2008(Jan- 2007(Jan- December) December) Exporting Countries (in USD Million) Exporting Countries (in USD Million) Belgium 1807.191 Belgium 3712.87 Hong Kong 852.042 UK 1414.74 UAE 765.363 UAE 1168.62 UK 519.605 Hong Kong 1113.78 USA 323.874 Israel 545.18 Israel 308.386 USA 359.17 Russia 70.827 Russia 60.87 Thailand 42.608 Thailand 52.82 South Africa 27.099 Zambia 28.46 Zambia 20.43 South Africa 27.47
  34. 34. Switzerland 7816.81 Switzerland 8788.6 UAE 1964.53 Australia 2835.86 South Africa 1657.27 UAE 2306.65 Australia 1526.09 South Africa 1632.57 USA 226.96 USA 377.8 Mexico 36.71 Saudi Arabia 29.55 Ukraine 23.28 Jamaica 21.26 Source: Ministry of commerce
  35. 35. JEWELLERY-WORLD MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 1. China is emerging as a major exporter in the world jewellery market. USA has granted the “Most favored Nation” status to China which entails doing away with the 6.5% import duty i.e. being levied on jewellery imports into that country from other countries including India. 2. Among industrialized economies, Europe is seen to have the best prospects for jewellery especially with a major round of tax cuts in Germany, France and Italy. 3. According to Economic Intelligence Unit the star performer could well be the oil-rich economies of the Middle East and North Africa with growth in this region estimated at 4.7% for 2001, making it the fastest growing region in the world. 4. In Latin America, Brazil is forecast to post growth rates acting as a locomotive for surrounding Latin American countries. 5. The Japanese economy is picking up and as such the Japanese market looks promising for gold jewellery. The import of platinum jewellery into Japan is picking up. 6. US market is buoyant and follows the trend of “more flash for less cash” i.e. US market only works on price points. It is in this respect Indian jewellery is costly vis-à-vis its competitors in this market. Thailand is giving stiff competition on the price front in the US market. 7. Diamonds are the clear front-runners for studded jewellery but other stones are also becoming popular. Pearls Onyx and Opal are also in demand. Realizing the need that the main focus of international jewellery manufacturers is on designs and concepts, companies are investing on new technologies and latest machinery. 8. In the western countries, for the past few years the demand for white gold is picking up. It is much appreciated in the western countries as well as designers as it sets off eveningwear. The demand for rings and pendants in white gold increases at the time of valentine’s day, marriage season and such occasion like mother’s day. Similarly demand for diamonds studded pendants and ear rings increases during the festival season of Christmas and New Year. 9. There is increasing tendency by the jewellery exporters to forge joint ventures with overseas jewellery manufacturers in order to learn about the international designs, marketing skills, to penetrate into the new markets. For example, Inter Gold has a joint venture with I Hammar & Sohne. Similarly Diastar Jewellery Ltd. Which is SEEPZ based has tied up with the US-based Diastar. 10. Emergence of Internet and E-Commerce is widening the jewellery market which was earlier restricted to “touch and see”. DEVELOPMENTS — INDIA As per the latest Gems & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) release, the industry registered exports worth US$ 15 billion in April-December 2008 (Provisional), compared to US$ 14.9 billion in the corresponding period of 2007, registering a growth of .59 per cent.
  36. 36. • Further, the total gems and jewellery exports from India stood at US$ 20.8 billion in the financial year 2007-08, against US$ 17.1 billion in the previous year, witnessing a growth of 22.27 percent. The sector accounted for 13.41 per cent of India's total merchandise exports. • Out of the total US$ 20.88 billion exports generated by the Indian gems and jewellery sector, the United States and Hong Kong accounted for the largest import, with a share of 26 per cent each, followed by UAE at 21 per cent. • Gold jewellery exports increased from US$ 5.2 billion in 2006-07 to US$ 5.6 billion 2007-08. • Export of cut and polished diamonds grew from US$ 10.9 billion in 2006-07 to US$ 14.2 billion in 2007-08, witnessing a growth of nearly 68 per cent. • Export of colored gemstones increased from US$ 246.4 million in 2006-07 to US$ 276.42 million in 2007-08. • The export industry mainly comprises of small-to-large units based in various special economic zones (SEZs), export processing zones (EPZs) in Chennai and Noida and Santacruz Electronic Exports Processing Zone (SEEPZ) in Mumbai, supplying primarily diamond-studded jewellery JEWELLERY EXPORTS—THRUST ITEM OF GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Recognizing the potential in the $ 80 billion plus global jewellery markets (out of which India’s jewellery exports are just a marginal $ 1 billion) Government of India has adopted the following medium term strategy to promote gold jewellery exports. • Establishment of designing and manufacturing centers to cater to the changing requirements of the world market. • Encourage production of contemporary designs of plain and studded gold jewellery • Entry into new markets and intensification of generic promotion in the existing traditional markets through participation in exhibitions. • Encourage voluntary hallmarking for export of gold jewellery and articles. • Establishment of Assaying and Hallmarking centers recognized by Bureau of Indian Standard (BIS). • Exim related policy initiatives to boost export of gold jewellery.
  37. 37. JEWELLERY EXPORTS FORECAST FOR INDIA/MMTC DURING NEXT 5 YEARS MMTC’s Indicative Plan : 2020 Targets – Gold Jewellery Exports Sales 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- Channel 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Exhibitions Marketing JVs Duty Free Shops Total ROUGH DIAMONDS Major producers of rough diamonds in the world are Russia, South Africa, Australia, Angola, and Namibia. Major importers are India, Israel, and Belgium. Major suppliers of rough diamonds are Cartelized, controlled mainly by De Beers. 9 out of 10 pieces of rough diamonds in the world are processed in India. Of the world polished diamond market, India has - Over 55% share in value terms. - Over 80% share in volume terms. - 26 million carats. - 700 million pieces - India-largest diamond cutting center in the world India is the world's largest diamond cutting and polishing centre in the world with 11 out of 12 diamonds sold in the global market being processed in the country. Surat is India's diamond processing hub, contributing over 80 per cent of the country's diamond processing industry with annual revenue of around US$ 13.03 billion. Data from Rapa port—the primary source of diamond price and market information—indicated that during April 2009 to January 2010, India's polished diamond exports were up by 11 per cent at US$ 13.8 billion from the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, while polished diamond imports increased 15.5 per cent to US$ 8.5 billion. "The direct supply of US$ 490 million of rough diamonds from Russia to India is a major step forward in the democratization of the global diamond industry.
  38. 38. According to Russian diamond-mining giant Alrosa's rough diamond price forecast up to 2018, rough diamond production is expected to return to 2008 levels (165 MM carats) no earlier than 2015 and, thereafter, to remain at around 165–167 MM carats per year as a result of a limited of new projects and depletion of existing mines. Based on the outlook of each of the main diamond jewellery markets, including the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Japan and the Middle East, the demand is expected to grow by 33 % over the next eight years. As per the provisional figures revealed by the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), imports of rough diamonds at US$ 978.05 million (rupees 4,479.46 crores) in May 2010 have shown a 55.42 percent growth (46.51 percent rupee term) compared with the imports at US$ 630.02 million (rupees 3,057.48 crores) for May 2009. These imports are a 71.5 percent increase in volume and 55.2 percent increase in the value of imports compared to May 2009. Compared to May 2008, India's gross rough diamond imports increased 6.6 percent and net imports are 3.6% higher. Out of the total annual $14 billion rough diamond market worldwide, India imports (for re- export) about $8 billion roughs every year, translating into about 130 million carats a year. It is about 70 percent supply of all diamonds worldwide.
  39. 39. As per GJEPC's calculation, India's rough diamond imports in 2009-10 (April-March) stood at $9.03 billion, up from $7.91 billion a year ago. India's 2009 net diamond account improved by 94 percent to negative $83.6 million. India's diamond imports increased to 25 percent in 2009 from 20 percent in 2008 mainly because of cost-competitiveness in small and middle range jewellery. India imports more than half of its rough diamonds through Belgium and has strong links with De Beers, Alrosa and BHP Billiton. Once cut, the bulk of the diamonds are exported back to big markets such as the US and Hong Kong. Major diamond suppliers like De Beers, Alrosa and Rio Tinto are focusing their attention on the Indian market that displayed great resilience in the face of economic hardship. In 2006, DTC supplied rough diamonds worth USD 1.7 billion to India out of a total of USD 8 billion worth of diamond imports. Antwerp is the primary supplier of rough diamond to India's massive manufacturing centre. India's diamond processing industry generates annual revenue of around Rs 60,000-70,000 crore, 80 percent of which comes from Surat-based units. Besides the UAE, the US and Europe, exporters are exploring new markets like China, Russia, Korea, Brazil and Malaysia. Future Outlook of Indian Gems and Jewellery Sector: According to the Investment Commission of India and the industry is expected to have a 65% share of the global market by 2010. In terms of domestic sales, branded jewellery is likely to become the fastest growing segment and is expected to witness a growth of 40 percent per annum to US$~ billion by 2010. Figure: Retail Sales of Jewellery in India (2000-2006, 2010E and 2015E) In 2010, retail sales for jewellery is expected to reach US$18.1 billion alone in India and further expected to reach US$27.5 billion by 2015. Despite the economic slowdown, this sector is expected to continue to shine in coming years. Rising raw material prices slowed the growth leaving loss in revenue in their revenue but future of this sector is secure.
  40. 40. MMTC’S MEDIUM TERM PLAN STRATEGIES The strategies to be adopted to achieve plan objectives are given below: GOLD JEWELLERY • E-commerce initiatives for sale of jewellery • Internet retailing of jewellery overseas through marketing JVS. • More jewellery exhibitions abroad with focus on potential markets/specific products • Duty free shops at Indian and selected foreign airports. • Promote sale of high quality hall marked branded jewellery through marketing network of established and recognized jewellery houses. • Encourage and sponsor new jewellery designs and market them. BULLION • Widen network of sales outlet (17 at present) & gold vaults further • Enlarge supply sources for bullion under consignment facility/real time pricing basis (present limit 11.5 tonnes) • Focused sale of bullion to industrial users (eg. Silver to photo film manufacturers, chemical & pharma units, platinum/palladium to auto companies, etc.) • Increase refining/recycling business bringing religious/temple trust into MMTC’s ambit. • Develop standard bullion products to expand bulk sale to corporates.
  41. 41. • Enhance captive medallion manufacturing capacity, with focus on institutional sales. • Expand reach of medallions, standard gold products and ‘Sanch’ brand silverware through franchised dealers & retail outlets (e.g. state emporium, cottage industry emporia, etc.) • Pursue ‘assaying & hallmarking’ as a separate profit centre activity. DIAMONDS & OTHR GEMS • Develop sustained & reliable supply sources of rough diamonds for export of cut/polished diamond as also of studded jewellery. • Wholesale trading of precious/semi precious stones under bonded warehouse scheme. • Promoting marketing JVs with diamond mining countries encouraging them to open direct sales outlets in India. • A productive and commercially viable role of MMTC in Bart Diamond Bourse. MMTC’s INDICATIVE MEDIUM TERM PLAN: 2011to 2020 TARGETS-BULLION/ROUGH DIAMONDS 2011-12 201-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value Qty Value . . . . . . . . . Gold Silver Platinum & Palladium Rough Diamonds Total
  42. 42. TARGETS-SUMMARY 201 201 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 1-12 2-13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EXPORTS IMPORTS DOMESTIC TOTAL TURNOVER