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Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’

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Presented at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) - Course on Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’
Manhester/UK, Jun 2009

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Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’

  1. 1. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’ Team D: Alessandro Pinheiro (Brazil) Simone Ehrenberg-Silies (Germany) Annelie Eriksson Helmersdotter (Sweden) Kil Woo Lee (South Korea)
  2. 2. Pacific Egde High fertility, low economic growth <ul><li>High unemployment, Low GDP, government budget constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Less resources for S&T, education, health care etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Infant mortality is high, tensely situation for childrens health, greater demand for childrens healthcare </li></ul><ul><li>Social tensions, possible segregation in society, </li></ul><ul><li>Low environment protection </li></ul><ul><li>Xenophopbia, emphasis on security </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints on cultural values, i.e. Family living </li></ul><ul><li>Demand for creativity & flexibility in policy making. </li></ul><ul><li>Data protection not yet thoroughly discussed </li></ul>
  3. 3. Illustration of the scenario, Peter 49, Hampsted <ul><li>High income, CEO, </li></ul><ul><li>Single, gated community, depressive </li></ul><ul><li>Gets medical treatment by travelling to different countries </li></ul><ul><li>Uses private healthcare </li></ul><ul><li>Easyjet offering flights to bring rich people to places which offers treatment they want </li></ul><ul><li>Peter does not rely on NHS </li></ul>
  4. 4. Wang 46 and Lisa 42, children Bob and Sarah, Manchester <ul><li>Middleclass, Wang and Lisa are divorce, Allowance to Lisa </li></ul><ul><li>Wang is engineer, working for a construction company, spends most of his time at the desk </li></ul><ul><li>Wang is afraid of unemployment, there fore he is suffering from high blood pressure </li></ul><ul><li>No time for excersise, problems with obesity </li></ul><ul><li>High expenses for childrens education (private schools) </li></ul><ul><li>Wang needs personlized prevention to avaoid costs of real severe deseases like heart deseases, diabetes etc </li></ul>
  5. 5. Nora, 35, unemployed, 5 children, Newcastle <ul><li>Single, teenage mother, previously loosing two other children due general state of health, no regular contact with hospital care </li></ul><ul><li>Can not afford nursery </li></ul><ul><li>Many children deseases (pandemias are common) </li></ul><ul><li>Pandemias also threat to adults </li></ul><ul><li>Wang needs personlized prevention to avaoid costs of real severe deseases like heart deseases, diabetes etc </li></ul>
  6. 6. Recommendations <ul><li>Personalized prevention to deal with infant mortality (different risk groups exists), varying according to income, type of occupation, diet </li></ul><ul><li>More knowledge on children diseases and their effects on adults should be accumulated right now </li></ul><ul><li>Plans to deal with pandemias should be developed </li></ul><ul><li>More medicine products designed for children </li></ul><ul><li>Concentrate research on medicines’ effect on children </li></ul><ul><li>Special personalized prevention programs for children with a strong social dimension </li></ul>
  7. 7. Core recommendations <ul><li>Carefulness about personlized medicine based on genetic data banks </li></ul><ul><li>Need for investment in childrens health research </li></ul><ul><li>Personlized prevention </li></ul>
  8. 8. Model – an overview Growth of population Science & technology Demography Individuals mobility Economy Social factors
  9. 9. Model – a more detailed picture Growth of population Science & technique Mortality Immigration GDP growth Fertility Ageing Education Health Welfare state Regulations Climate change War & conflicts Strong beliefs in religion Emmigration
  10. 10. How we got there <ul><li>UK never recovered from the Financial crisis in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons: Britons in 2009 has 1/3 of the private debts of all EU citizens </li></ul><ul><li>thus, it was not possible to push the economy by increasing private spending </li></ul><ul><li>Effect: the UK became less and less attractive for highly skilled immigrant workers </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Immigration from other countries however continues or even increases because of the effects of climate change in Southern countries </li></ul><ul><li>Because of the cultural background of immigrants the birth rate is quite high </li></ul><ul><li>Because of the severe contraints on public spending there was never a chance of building up a genetic databank as a basis for personalised medicine </li></ul>
  12. 12. Methodology <ul><li>Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling </li></ul><ul><li>Expert panels </li></ul><ul><li>Stakeholder interaction </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Sceanarios </li></ul>2 3 4 5 6 1
  13. 13. Black Swans <ul><li>Baby boom (frequent surveys) </li></ul><ul><li>Pandemia (WHO alert system) </li></ul><ul><li>War </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration boom </li></ul><ul><li>Emmigration booms (caused by i.e. natural disaster) </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in terrorism activity </li></ul>
  14. 14. Drivers ranking <ul><li>Most uncertain </li></ul><ul><li>Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Environment/social </li></ul><ul><li>Openness </li></ul><ul><li>Family living </li></ul><ul><li>Ageing population </li></ul>Most unpredictable
  15. 15. Scenarios Economy + Economy - Environment/fertility - Environment/fertility + A B C D
  16. 16. Datacollection S Diet, Choice of work /workplace, demography, diseases etc statistics, psychological and working life science T Technical innovation, dispersion of techniques Innvation reserach and evaluations E Production and/or demand for special health products, ageing society ? And statistics E Chemical waste Need more resources Ecological footpring Innovation surveys, Interviews with experts, Document, research etc P IP laws, labour policy Interviews with gov repr, government bills etc, statistics on working sectors V Fear of discrimination, data protection Survey of individuals
  17. 17. Scenario B and D Senario B” Gold coast” Scenario D ”Pacific edge” Increasing GDP Decreasing unemployment More tax for treasury More resources for S&T More immigration Elderly population Education resources Higher energy consumption Impact of pollution will increase Family values (individualism) Longevity High unemplyment, Low GDP, goverrnment budget constraints Less resources for S&T, education, healthcare etc. Infant mortality is high, Childrens health situation, childrens products, greater demand for childrens healthcare Social tensions, possible segregation in society, Low environment protection Xenophopbia, emphasis on security Constraints on cultural values, i.e. Family living Demand for creativity & flexibility in policy making.

Presented at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) - Course on Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’ Manhester/UK, Jun 2009

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