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‘AppStore
Secrets’

(What
We’ve
Learned
From
30,000,000
Downloads)





                   Greg
Yardley

                Co‐Founder
&
CEO

              greg@pinchmedia.com

                  646‐330‐8540

30,000,000
Downloads?!

        (Actually,
it’s
a
fair
bit
more
than
that
by
now.)


•  Since
AppStore
launch,
Pinch
Media
has
provided

   developers
with
an
analyUcs
library
to
monitor
app
usage

   –
unique
users,
sessions,
usage
Ume,
etc.


•  Since
AppStore
launch
we’ve
also
been
collecUng
every

   bit
of
detail
possible
from
the
AppStore
–
rankings,
price

   changes,
you
name
it
–
and
tying
it
back
to
our
analyUcs.

•  Our
stuff’s
in
a
few
hundred
applicaUons
right
now
–
it’s

   been
in
the
#1
free
and
paid
applicaUon
several
Umes

   each,
and
has
been
in
at
least
ten
of
the
top
100
free

   applicaUons
for
a
while
now.

•  With
all
of
this
data,
you
learn
a
few
things.



ApplicaUon
Rankings

         (How
does
the
AppStore
work,
anyway?)


For
every
ranked
list
on
the
AppStore,
here’s
a
good

  rule
of
thumb:


                24‐hour


            rolling
window


         of
units
downloaded

 (So
bunch
up
your
publicity.)

What
do
you
get
by
appearing
on
a
list?


•  Appearing
on
a
top
100
list
increases
daily

   new
users
by
an
average
of
2.3x.

•  Greater
gains
result
from
appearing
in
the
top

   25
and
top
10
lists
–
more
variable,
but
oaen

   an
order
of
magnitude.

•  However,
it’s
not
permanent.

Apple’s

   AppStore
is
structured
for
maximum
turnover.

Case
Study
A:
Well‐Timed
Price
Cut

Case
Study
B:
Not‐So‐Well
Timed

Case
Study
C:
CounterproducUve?

In
general…

•  Don’t
mess
with
a
posiUve
download
trend.

•  Decreasing
price
is
oaen
worthwhile.

•  Aaer
you’ve
been
broadly
exposed,

   experiments
have
less
effect.



The
average
price
cut
increased
demand
by
130%.

The
average
price
increase
drops
demand
to
25%.

What
do
I
need
to
get
on
a
list?

       For
free
applicaUons:

                     Top 25 Top 100
six months ago       10,000     1,000
three months ago     11,000     1,500
today                20,000     5,000


    (Apple
had
a
big
Christmas!)

Case
Study
D:
Happy
Holidays

Do
I
have
a
community?

           (aka
‘How
much
is
my
app
used?’)


•  So
you’ve
got
a
million
downloads
–
congrats!


   But
what
percentage
use
your
applicaUon
the

   next
day?

The
day
aaer?

•  The
biggest
applicaUons
in
our
system
have

   +3MM
downloads
–
but
what
kind
of
acUve

   user
base
does
a
download
translate
into?

Free
ApplicaHons
‐
Usage
Over
Time

                                25.00%

Users
Returning
(%
of
Day
0)


                                20.00%





                                15.00%





                                10.00%





                                 5.00%





                                 0.00%

                                          1
   11
   21
   31
       41
   51
    61
     71
   81
   91


                                                                 Days
Since
First
Used

Paid
ApplicaHons
‐
Usage
Over
Time

                                35.0%

Users
Returning
(%
of
Day
0)



                                30.0%




                                25.0%




                                20.0%




                                15.0%




                                10.0%




                                 5.0%




                                 0.0%

                                         1
   11
   21
   31
      41
   51
    61
     71
   81
   91


                                                                Age
Since
First
Used

ApplicaHons
By
Category
‐
Usage
Over
Time

                                30.0%


                                                                            Entertainment

Users
Returning
(%
of
Day
0)



                                                                            Games

                                25.0%


                                                                            Sports


                                                                            Lifestyle

                                20.0%


                                                                            UUliUes



                                15.0%





                                10.0%





                                 5.0%





                                 0.0%

                                           1

                                           4

                                           7





                                          19


                                          25

                                          28

                                          31


                                          37





                                          49


                                          55

                                          58

                                          61


                                          67





                                          79


                                          85

                                          88

                                          91


                                          97

                                         100

                                          10

                                          13

                                          16


                                          22





                                          34


                                          40

                                          43

                                          46


                                          52





                                          64


                                          70

                                          73

                                          76


                                          82





                                          94

                                                    Days
Since
First
Use

In
other
words…

•  Users
stop
using
the
average
applicaUons

   prely
quickly.

Long‐term
audiences
are

   generally
1%
of
total
downloads.

•  Paid
applicaUons
generally
retain
their
users

   longer
than
free
applicaUons,
although
the

   drop‐off
is
sUll
prely
steep.

•  Sports
seems
beler
at
retaining
users
over

   the
short
term;
entertainment
at
retaining

   users
over
the
long
term.



How
long
are
they
using
it?


•  For
certain
applicaUons,
the
length
of
Ume

   users
use
the
applicaUon
is
important.


•  Branded
applicaUons
care
deeply
about

   engagement.

•  ApplicaUons
showing
ads
periodically
also
care

   about
session
length,
for
obvious
reasons.

•  In
general,
every
second
the
app’s
open
is
a

   second
it
can
be
seen
by
or
recommended
to

   others.



So
should
I
give
it
away
or
not?

•  Anyone
browsing
the
top
free
applicaUons

   knows
that
adverUsing
is
an
opUon.

•  The
biggest
player
is
AdMob,
but
Pinch
Media

   has
some
partnerships
with
ad
networks
that

   supply
some
of
these
ads.


•  However…
I
used
to
be
much
more

   enthusiasUc
about
adverUsing
than
I
am
today.


   Here’s
why:

Total
ApplicaHon
Runs
Since
First
Use

                         12





                         10

Total
ApplicaHon
Runs





                          8





                          6





                          4





                          2





                          0

                               1
   11
    21
    31
      41
     51
    61
   71
   81


                                                  Days
Since
First
Use

Average
‘free
vs.
paid’
raUos:

•  for
total
unique
users:

                     7.5
to
1

•  for
total
number
of
Umes
used:

                     6.6
to
1

•  for
total
Ume
spent
using
the
applicaUon:

                     3.9
to
1



ExtrapolaUng…

•  Assume
free
applicaUons
are
run,
at
most,
a

   dozen
Umes
per
user.

•  We
see
free
applicaUons
run,
on
average,
6.6

   Umes
as
oaen
as
paid
applicaUons.

•  A
paid
applicaUon
returns
at
least
$0.70
/
user.

•  Doing
the
math
–
12
x
6.6
=
80
sessions.

•  Can
the
average
applica/on
make
more
than

   $0.70
off
adver/sing
in
80
sessions?




Answer:
Hell
no.

Earning
$0.70
in
80
sessions
requires
revenue
of

   $8.75
per
thousand
runs.

If
you
can
show
one
ad
per
session,
that’s
an

   $8.75
CPM.

Right
now,
with
the
ad
market
how
it
is,

   adverUsing
rates
of
$0.50‐$2.00
CPM
are

   much
more
typical.

The
typical
applicaUon
would
have
to
bombard

   its
users
with
ads
to
beat
the
money
it’d
make

   from
paid
sales.





But
adverUsing
isn’t
always
a
bad
idea.


•  Some
applicaUons
benefit
from
network

   effects,
and
get
far
more
than
6.6x
the
users

   they’d
get
if
they
charged.

•  Some
applicaUons
are
excepUonally
‘sUcky’
–

   users
use
the
app
far
more
than
average.

•  Some
applicaUons
–
generally,
ones
catering

   to
people
with
money
–
can
command
beler

   adverUsing
rates
than
usual.


CumulaHve
ApplicaHon
Runs
Since
First
Use,
By
Decile

                   45



                   40



                   35



                   30

ApplicaHon
Runs





                   25



                   20



                   15



                   10



                    5



                    0

                         1
   6
   11
   16
   21
   26
   31
   36
   41
   46
   51
   56
   61
   66
   71
   76
   81
   86
   91
   96


                                                                   Days
Since
First
Used

CumulaHve
ApplicaHon
Runs
Since
First
Use,
By
Decile
                                                            CPM

                   45



                                                                                                                                               <
$2.00

                   40



                   35



                   30

ApplicaHon
Runs





                   25



                   20



                   15


                                                                                                                                               ~
$7.00

                   10


                                                                                                                                               ~
$15.00

                    5

                                                                                                                                               ~
$35.00

                    0

                         1
   6
   11
   16
   21
   26
   31
   36
   41
   46
   51
   56
   61
   66
   71
   76
   81
   86
   91
   96


                                                                   Days
Since
First
Used

To
sum
up…

•  Only
a
few
(<5%)
high‐performing
applicaUons

   are
suitable
for
adverUsing
right
now,
and
you

   don’t
know
if
you’ve
got
one
unUl
aaer
launch.


•  In
other
words
‐
unless
there’s
something

   inherent
about
the
app
that
screams
free,
sell
it.

•  Install
analyUcs
in
your
applicaUon
and
watch

   your
sessions
per
user
over
Ume.

Within
a
few

   weeks,
you’ll
know
if
you’ve
got
a
sUcky

   applicaUon.

•  Only
release
an
ad‐supported
version
when
you

   have
data
strongly
indicaUng
success.

Again,
summing
up
‐

•  Usage
Ume
declines
by
almost
a
third
in
the

   first
month
aaer
use,
stabilizing
at
just
under

   five
minutes.


•  Paid
applicaUons
see
slightly
more
use
soon

   aaer
installaUon,
and
are
used
for
slightly

   longer
periods.

•  The
biggest
usage
differenUator
is
category
–

   games
are
used
for
longer
periods
than
any

   other
type
of
applicaUon.

This
was
actually
a
sneak
preview

•  AppStore‐wide
reports
are
being
generated

   daily
and
will
be
incorporated
into
Pinch

   Media’s
reporUng
site
in
the
near
future.

•  Any
applicaUon
using
our
analyUcs
library
and

   acUvely
sending
in
data
gets
access
to
all

   ecosystem‐wide
reporUng
for
free.


•  Pinch
Media
wants
to
know
what
else
you

   want
baked
into
this
reporUng.

QuesUons?

          You
can
always
reach
me
at:

            greg@pinchmedia.com

                646‐330‐8540


       If
you’ve
got
a
technical
quesUon,


     support@pinchmedia.com
goes
to
the

                enUre
company.


You
can
see
a
demo
at
demo.pinchmedia.com,
or

  just
get
started
at
developer.pinchmedia.com.


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AppStore Secrets Guide: What We've Learned From 30,000,000 Downloads

  • 1. ‘AppStore
Secrets’
 (What
We’ve
Learned
From
30,000,000
Downloads)

 Greg
Yardley
 Co‐Founder
&
CEO
 greg@pinchmedia.com
 646‐330‐8540

  • 2. 30,000,000
Downloads?!
 (Actually,
it’s
a
fair
bit
more
than
that
by
now.)
 •  Since
AppStore
launch,
Pinch
Media
has
provided
 developers
with
an
analyUcs
library
to
monitor
app
usage
 –
unique
users,
sessions,
usage
Ume,
etc.

 •  Since
AppStore
launch
we’ve
also
been
collecUng
every
 bit
of
detail
possible
from
the
AppStore
–
rankings,
price
 changes,
you
name
it
–
and
tying
it
back
to
our
analyUcs.
 •  Our
stuff’s
in
a
few
hundred
applicaUons
right
now
–
it’s
 been
in
the
#1
free
and
paid
applicaUon
several
Umes
 each,
and
has
been
in
at
least
ten
of
the
top
100
free
 applicaUons
for
a
while
now.
 •  With
all
of
this
data,
you
learn
a
few
things.



  • 3. ApplicaUon
Rankings
 (How
does
the
AppStore
work,
anyway?)
 For
every
ranked
list
on
the
AppStore,
here’s
a
good
 rule
of
thumb:
 24‐hour

 rolling
window

 of
units
downloaded
 (So
bunch
up
your
publicity.)

  • 4. What
do
you
get
by
appearing
on
a
list?
 •  Appearing
on
a
top
100
list
increases
daily
 new
users
by
an
average
of
2.3x.
 •  Greater
gains
result
from
appearing
in
the
top
 25
and
top
10
lists
–
more
variable,
but
oaen
 an
order
of
magnitude.
 •  However,
it’s
not
permanent.

Apple’s
 AppStore
is
structured
for
maximum
turnover.

  • 8. In
general…
 •  Don’t
mess
with
a
posiUve
download
trend.
 •  Decreasing
price
is
oaen
worthwhile.
 •  Aaer
you’ve
been
broadly
exposed,
 experiments
have
less
effect.

 The
average
price
cut
increased
demand
by
130%.
 The
average
price
increase
drops
demand
to
25%.

  • 9. What
do
I
need
to
get
on
a
list?
 For
free
applicaUons:
 Top 25 Top 100 six months ago 10,000 1,000 three months ago 11,000 1,500 today 20,000 5,000 (Apple
had
a
big
Christmas!)

  • 11. Do
I
have
a
community?
 (aka
‘How
much
is
my
app
used?’)
 •  So
you’ve
got
a
million
downloads
–
congrats!

 But
what
percentage
use
your
applicaUon
the
 next
day?

The
day
aaer?
 •  The
biggest
applicaUons
in
our
system
have
 +3MM
downloads
–
but
what
kind
of
acUve
 user
base
does
a
download
translate
into?

  • 12. Free
ApplicaHons
‐
Usage
Over
Time
 25.00%
 Users
Returning
(%
of
Day
0)
 20.00%
 15.00%
 10.00%
 5.00%
 0.00%
 1
 11
 21
 31
 41
 51
 61
 71
 81
 91
 Days
Since
First
Used

  • 13. Paid
ApplicaHons
‐
Usage
Over
Time
 35.0%
 Users
Returning
(%
of
Day
0)
 30.0%
 25.0%
 20.0%
 15.0%
 10.0%
 5.0%
 0.0%
 1
 11
 21
 31
 41
 51
 61
 71
 81
 91
 Age
Since
First
Used

  • 14. ApplicaHons
By
Category
‐
Usage
Over
Time
 30.0%
 Entertainment
 Users
Returning
(%
of
Day
0)
 Games
 25.0%
 Sports
 Lifestyle
 20.0%
 UUliUes
 15.0%
 10.0%
 5.0%
 0.0%
 1
 4
 7
 19
 25
 28
 31
 37
 49
 55
 58
 61
 67
 79
 85
 88
 91
 97
 100
 10
 13
 16
 22
 34
 40
 43
 46
 52
 64
 70
 73
 76
 82
 94
 Days
Since
First
Use

  • 15. In
other
words…
 •  Users
stop
using
the
average
applicaUons
 prely
quickly.

Long‐term
audiences
are
 generally
1%
of
total
downloads.
 •  Paid
applicaUons
generally
retain
their
users
 longer
than
free
applicaUons,
although
the
 drop‐off
is
sUll
prely
steep.
 •  Sports
seems
beler
at
retaining
users
over
 the
short
term;
entertainment
at
retaining
 users
over
the
long
term.



  • 16. How
long
are
they
using
it?

 •  For
certain
applicaUons,
the
length
of
Ume
 users
use
the
applicaUon
is
important.

 •  Branded
applicaUons
care
deeply
about
 engagement.
 •  ApplicaUons
showing
ads
periodically
also
care
 about
session
length,
for
obvious
reasons.
 •  In
general,
every
second
the
app’s
open
is
a
 second
it
can
be
seen
by
or
recommended
to
 others.



  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. So
should
I
give
it
away
or
not?
 •  Anyone
browsing
the
top
free
applicaUons
 knows
that
adverUsing
is
an
opUon.
 •  The
biggest
player
is
AdMob,
but
Pinch
Media
 has
some
partnerships
with
ad
networks
that
 supply
some
of
these
ads.

 •  However…
I
used
to
be
much
more
 enthusiasUc
about
adverUsing
than
I
am
today.

 Here’s
why:

  • 21. Total
ApplicaHon
Runs
Since
First
Use
 12
 10
 Total
ApplicaHon
Runs
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0
 1
 11
 21
 31
 41
 51
 61
 71
 81
 Days
Since
First
Use

  • 22. Average
‘free
vs.
paid’
raUos:
 •  for
total
unique
users:
 7.5
to
1
 •  for
total
number
of
Umes
used:
 6.6
to
1
 •  for
total
Ume
spent
using
the
applicaUon:
 3.9
to
1



  • 23. ExtrapolaUng…
 •  Assume
free
applicaUons
are
run,
at
most,
a
 dozen
Umes
per
user.
 •  We
see
free
applicaUons
run,
on
average,
6.6
 Umes
as
oaen
as
paid
applicaUons.
 •  A
paid
applicaUon
returns
at
least
$0.70
/
user.
 •  Doing
the
math
–
12
x
6.6
=
80
sessions.
 •  Can
the
average
applica/on
make
more
than
 $0.70
off
adver/sing
in
80
sessions?




  • 24. Answer:
Hell
no.
 Earning
$0.70
in
80
sessions
requires
revenue
of
 $8.75
per
thousand
runs.
 If
you
can
show
one
ad
per
session,
that’s
an
 $8.75
CPM.
 Right
now,
with
the
ad
market
how
it
is,
 adverUsing
rates
of
$0.50‐$2.00
CPM
are
 much
more
typical.
 The
typical
applicaUon
would
have
to
bombard
 its
users
with
ads
to
beat
the
money
it’d
make
 from
paid
sales.





  • 25. But
adverUsing
isn’t
always
a
bad
idea.

 •  Some
applicaUons
benefit
from
network
 effects,
and
get
far
more
than
6.6x
the
users
 they’d
get
if
they
charged.
 •  Some
applicaUons
are
excepUonally
‘sUcky’
–
 users
use
the
app
far
more
than
average.
 •  Some
applicaUons
–
generally,
ones
catering
 to
people
with
money
–
can
command
beler
 adverUsing
rates
than
usual.


  • 26. CumulaHve
ApplicaHon
Runs
Since
First
Use,
By
Decile
 45
 40
 35
 30
 ApplicaHon
Runs
 25
 20
 15
 10
 5
 0
 1
 6
 11
 16
 21
 26
 31
 36
 41
 46
 51
 56
 61
 66
 71
 76
 81
 86
 91
 96
 Days
Since
First
Used

  • 27. CumulaHve
ApplicaHon
Runs
Since
First
Use,
By
Decile
 CPM
 45
 <
$2.00
 40
 35
 30
 ApplicaHon
Runs
 25
 20
 15
 ~
$7.00
 10
 ~
$15.00
 5
 ~
$35.00
 0
 1
 6
 11
 16
 21
 26
 31
 36
 41
 46
 51
 56
 61
 66
 71
 76
 81
 86
 91
 96
 Days
Since
First
Used

  • 28. To
sum
up…
 •  Only
a
few
(<5%)
high‐performing
applicaUons
 are
suitable
for
adverUsing
right
now,
and
you
 don’t
know
if
you’ve
got
one
unUl
aaer
launch.

 •  In
other
words
‐
unless
there’s
something
 inherent
about
the
app
that
screams
free,
sell
it.
 •  Install
analyUcs
in
your
applicaUon
and
watch
 your
sessions
per
user
over
Ume.

Within
a
few
 weeks,
you’ll
know
if
you’ve
got
a
sUcky
 applicaUon.
 •  Only
release
an
ad‐supported
version
when
you
 have
data
strongly
indicaUng
success.

  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. Again,
summing
up
‐
 •  Usage
Ume
declines
by
almost
a
third
in
the
 first
month
aaer
use,
stabilizing
at
just
under
 five
minutes.

 •  Paid
applicaUons
see
slightly
more
use
soon
 aaer
installaUon,
and
are
used
for
slightly
 longer
periods.
 •  The
biggest
usage
differenUator
is
category
–
 games
are
used
for
longer
periods
than
any
 other
type
of
applicaUon.

  • 32. This
was
actually
a
sneak
preview
 •  AppStore‐wide
reports
are
being
generated
 daily
and
will
be
incorporated
into
Pinch
 Media’s
reporUng
site
in
the
near
future.
 •  Any
applicaUon
using
our
analyUcs
library
and
 acUvely
sending
in
data
gets
access
to
all
 ecosystem‐wide
reporUng
for
free.

 •  Pinch
Media
wants
to
know
what
else
you
 want
baked
into
this
reporUng.

  • 33. QuesUons?
 You
can
always
reach
me
at:
 greg@pinchmedia.com
 646‐330‐8540
 If
you’ve
got
a
technical
quesUon,

 support@pinchmedia.com
goes
to
the
 enUre
company.
 You
can
see
a
demo
at
demo.pinchmedia.com,
or
 just
get
started
at
developer.pinchmedia.com.