MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
System Stability First

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Regression to the Mean

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reference Class Error
Regression to the Mean

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Base Rate Neglect
Regression to the Mean
Reference Class Error

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are
Visualize the Work

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Start From Where You Are
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
Start From Where You Are

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress
Start From Where You Are
Focus on Throughput

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
DOD: Destroy the Enemy
“Our first priority is to satisfy the customer
through the early and continuous delivery
of valuable software”
First Principle of the Agile Manifesto

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“Predictability builds and
holds trust, a core Agile value,
better than does delivering
more with less reliability.”
Release Planning

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Precise plans hide uncertainty

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
One Bad Bid

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
One Bad Bid
…a roofer’s view of technical debt.

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Leveraging Uncertainty

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Mark Twain
It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.
Leveraging Uncertainty

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
What is this Estimation Thing?

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Words get written
Words get twisted
Old meanings move in the drift of time
– Jethro Tull
What is this Estimation Thing?

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
The Domain Expert

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
The Domain Expert
“It all ends in tears anyway.”
– Jack Kerouac

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Bundled Assumptions

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Bundled Assumptions
“It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.”

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…a range estimate allows you to quantify
what you’re uncertain about.
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Expressing Uncertainty

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
You don’t have to commit to
anything that you’re
uncertain about.
Expressing Uncertainty

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Uncertainty
What are decisions would
be affected by additional
information?

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“An iterative process of
reducing uncertainty about
something that matters.”
– Douglas Hubbard
Reducing Uncertainty

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Mathematical Theory of Communication

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
information is the amount of
uncertainty reduction in a signal.
A Mathematical Theory of Communication

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
… an iterative process of increasing the fidelity of the signal …
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Definition of Information Entropy

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A Definition of Information Entropy

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Information Entropy

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Information Entropy

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Reducing Information Entropy

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…how much does 5 random values reduce entropy?
Reducing Information Entropy

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…a measurement doesn’t have to vanquish uncertainty.
90% probability better than “no clue”

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
90% probability better than “no clue”

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Math Matters

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
1. Nominal
2. Ordinal
3. Rational
4. Interval
A Taxonomy of Measurement Scales

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Rational Scales: Time and Money

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Interval Scales: Story Points

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Interval Scales: Story Points
The arbitrary baseline of an interval scale
is key to understanding
story points.

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Are five one star movies as good
as one five star movie?
Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring.
Conflating ordinal and rational scales

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
A brontosaurs is any story that’s too big to go into work.
Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
it definitely matters how much bigger
one Tyrannosaurus Rex is from another;
Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…qualitative measurements…
Nominal Scales

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…qualitative measurement…
Nominal Scales

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Diving Deeper …

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
…The Equivalent Bet
Estimate Validation Techniques

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
……Calibration is a procedure
where you measure against
a known quantity.
Calibration

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Story Decomposition
…right-sizing stories is half the battle.…right-sizing stories is half the battle.

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
“Predictability builds and holds trust,
a core Agile value, better than does
delivering more with less reliability.”
— David Anderson
Release Planning and Queue Time

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation
…the mathematics of uncertainty.

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus