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KEA20 - Michael Godeck - Tuning into predictability

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The whole point of estimation is to support decisions. If an estimate doesn't help resolve uncertainty about a decision we have to make, then it doesn't have any value. Estimates are counter-productive when the intention is to set performance targets.

To get value out of estimation, we first need to clarify what we're after: for example, Capacity Planning, Effort Estimation and Release Planning are distinct goals requiring different information to support decisions.

In this session, we'll tell the story of estimation as a quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations, and we'll look at how to apply that in the context of the various estimation goals

The whole point of estimation is to support decisions. If an estimate doesn't help resolve uncertainty about a decision we have to make, then it doesn't have any value. Estimates are counter-productive when the intention is to set performance targets.

To get value out of estimation, we first need to clarify what we're after: for example, Capacity Planning, Effort Estimation and Release Planning are distinct goals requiring different information to support decisions.

In this session, we'll tell the story of estimation as a quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations, and we'll look at how to apply that in the context of the various estimation goals

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KEA20 - Michael Godeck - Tuning into predictability

  1. 1. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Tuning into Predictability Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  2. 2. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Tuning into Predictability Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  3. 3. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus System Stability First
  4. 4. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Regression to the Mean
  5. 5. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reference Class Error Regression to the Mean
  6. 6. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Base Rate Neglect Regression to the Mean Reference Class Error
  7. 7. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Start From Where You Are
  8. 8. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Start From Where You Are Visualize the Work
  9. 9. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Start From Where You Are Visualize the Work Limit Work in Progress
  10. 10. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Manage the Flow Visualize the Work Limit Work in Progress Start From Where You Are
  11. 11. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Manage the Flow Visualize the Work Limit Work in Progress Start From Where You Are Focus on Throughput
  12. 12. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus DOD: Destroy the Enemy “Our first priority is to satisfy the customer through the early and continuous delivery of valuable software” First Principle of the Agile Manifesto
  13. 13. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus “Predictability builds and holds trust, a core Agile value, better than does delivering more with less reliability.” Release Planning
  14. 14. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Precise plans hide uncertainty
  15. 15. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus One Bad Bid
  16. 16. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus One Bad Bid …a roofer’s view of technical debt.
  17. 17. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Leveraging Uncertainty
  18. 18. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus – Mark Twain It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you, it’s what you know that ain’t so. Leveraging Uncertainty
  19. 19. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus What is this Estimation Thing?
  20. 20. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Words get written Words get twisted Old meanings move in the drift of time – Jethro Tull What is this Estimation Thing?
  21. 21. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus The Domain Expert
  22. 22. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus The Domain Expert “It all ends in tears anyway.” – Jack Kerouac
  23. 23. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Bundled Assumptions
  24. 24. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Bundled Assumptions “It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you, it’s what you know that ain’t so.”
  25. 25. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
  26. 26. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …a range estimate allows you to quantify what you’re uncertain about. Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges
  27. 27. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Expressing Uncertainty
  28. 28. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus You don’t have to commit to anything that you’re uncertain about. Expressing Uncertainty
  29. 29. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Uncertainty What are decisions would be affected by additional information?
  30. 30. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus “An iterative process of reducing uncertainty about something that matters.” – Douglas Hubbard Reducing Uncertainty
  31. 31. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus – Douglas Hubbard – Douglas Hubbard “A quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations.” Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
  32. 32. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus – Douglas Hubbard – Douglas Hubbard “A quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations.” Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction
  33. 33. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A Mathematical Theory of Communication
  34. 34. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus information is the amount of uncertainty reduction in a signal. A Mathematical Theory of Communication
  35. 35. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  36. 36. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus … an iterative process of increasing the fidelity of the signal … Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction
  37. 37. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A Definition of Information Entropy
  38. 38. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A Definition of Information Entropy
  39. 39. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Information Entropy
  40. 40. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Information Entropy
  41. 41. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Reducing Information Entropy
  42. 42. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …how much does 5 random values reduce entropy? Reducing Information Entropy
  43. 43. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …a measurement doesn’t have to vanquish uncertainty. 90% probability better than “no clue”
  44. 44. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus 90% probability better than “no clue”
  45. 45. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …something less than perfect certainty. Confidence Interval
  46. 46. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …something less than perfect certainty. Confidence Interval
  47. 47. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Math Matters
  48. 48. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus 1. Nominal 2. Ordinal 3. Rational 4. Interval A Taxonomy of Measurement Scales
  49. 49. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Rational Scales: Time and Money
  50. 50. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Interval Scales: Story Points
  51. 51. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Interval Scales: Story Points The arbitrary baseline of an interval scale is key to understanding story points.
  52. 52. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness
  53. 53. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Are five one star movies as good as one five star movie? Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating
  54. 54. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring. Conflating ordinal and rational scales
  55. 55. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
  56. 56. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus A brontosaurs is any story that’s too big to go into work. Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale
  57. 57. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
  58. 58. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus it definitely matters how much bigger one Tyrannosaurus Rex is from another; Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale
  59. 59. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …qualitative measurements… Nominal Scales
  60. 60. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Nominal Scales …qualitative measurements…
  61. 61. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Nominal Scales …qualitative measurements…
  62. 62. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …qualitative measurement… Nominal Scales
  63. 63. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Tuning into Predictability
  64. 64. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
  65. 65. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
  66. 66. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Diving Deeper …
  67. 67. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus …The Equivalent Bet Estimate Validation Techniques
  68. 68. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus ……Calibration is a procedure where you measure against a known quantity. Calibration
  69. 69. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Story Decomposition …right-sizing stories is half the battle.…right-sizing stories is half the battle.
  70. 70. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus “Predictability builds and holds trust, a core Agile value, better than does delivering more with less reliability.” — David Anderson Release Planning and Queue Time
  71. 71. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation …the mathematics of uncertainty.
  72. 72. MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020 www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus

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