FACT	SHEET                                              SAS Demand-Driven Forecasting                                     ...
products are produced at the right time       and share results through the SAS             business. The open model repos...
and external customer forecasts (sales,                                                Key Featuresmarketing, finance and ...
Additional software•	 JRE:	1.4.2_09	(Sun)•	 MySQL	Pro	5.0.22•	 MySQL	Connector/J	5.0.3,	   commercial versionServer enviro...
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Sas Demand Driven Forecasting Factsheet


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SAS Demand-Driven Forecasting drives
the development of the consensus
forecast in conjunction with the S&OP
process. Featuring not only scenario
modeling, but a new demand planning
workbench to support advanced
consensus forecasting, it provides scalability,
automation, depth and a breadth
of advanced analytics to aid the demand
forecasting and planning process.

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Sas Demand Driven Forecasting Factsheet

  1. 1. FACT SHEET SAS Demand-Driven Forecasting ® Maximize profitability, market share and customer satisfaction Today, most companies use legacy With SAS Demand-Driven forecasting,What does SAS Demand-Driven ® ERP/SCM solutions that are workflow- you can:Forecasting do? based with little emphasis on analytics, • Harness your existing data with pow-SAS Demand-Driven Forecasting drives resulting in inaccurate forecasts. This erful analytics through a user-friendlythe development of the consensus process is resource-intensive, time con-forecast in conjunction with the S&OP interface. suming and is driven solely by domainprocess. Featuring not only scenario • Build a workflow designed around modeling, but a new demand plan- knowledge and biased judgment. your processes.ning workbench to support advancedconsensus forecasting, it provides scal- Using inappropriate systems can put • Use business intelligence to drive ability, automation, depth and a breadth your organization at a competitive what-if analysis and disseminate theof advanced analytics to aid the demand results across your organization to disadvantage and prohibit you fromforecasting and planning process. driving top-line growth and fulfilling make better decisions.Why is SAS Demand-Driven ® customers’ needs. With appropriate • Shorten the time it takes to drive your Forecasting important? technology, organizations can become supply chain and realize significantSAS Demand-Driven Forecasting com- demand-driven by incorporating savings in time and money.bines the power of automation, analytics customer demand signals and market • Support a formal S&OP process with and workflow to generate an unbiased trends in the demand plan accurately, strong methodologies that incorpo-accurate consensus forecast on a large- frequently and in real time – whilescale basis. Using what-if analysis capa- rate an understanding of organiza- anticipating demand variability to tional dynamics.bilities, you can adjust forecasts basedon a structured process that incorporates remove the threat to profit margins.data and analysis – rather than pure Key Benefitsjudgment – to enhance the accuracy of SAS combines the power of automa-your forecasts. Improve statistical forecasting tion, analytics and workflow to generate accuracy across the product hierarchy the most unbiased and accurateFor whom is SAS Demand-Driven ® SAS’ patented statistical forecasting forecast on a large-scale basis. SASForecasting designed? engine has a complete array of allows you to consolidate and reconcileSAS Demand-Driven Forecasting is advanced forecasting methods, large volumes of information in adesigned for forecast analysts, business structured way to create accurate including Exponential Smoothing,planners in sales, marketing and finance,and senior level managers responsible for consensus forecasts and easily share Winter’s, ARIMA, ARIMAX, UCM andcreating sales forecasts that provide input them throughout the organization to dynamic regression to model andinto the consensus forecasting process. reduce excess inventory costs, forecast all products across an eliminate out-of-stocks and improve organization’s product portfolio. SAS downstream planning efficiencies. can integrate consumer demand (pull), model it and forecast it automatically The SAS solution automatically using award-winning data access tools. creates a weighted consensus forecast Reduce finished goods inventory by tracking variation between forecasted levels and stock-outs and actuals to aid the consensus forecasting process. SAS’ what-if SAS provides forecasts that reflect the analysis and scenario modeling realities of the business, improving your capabilities help you plan for future ability to forecast and plan future events events, including new product launches, with confidence. As a result, safety location and channel introduction, and stock levels can be tightened along with simulate the impact of possible market- on-hand finished goods inventory, ing investment strategies and product adding more efficiencies to the overall mixes to find the optimal forecasting supply chain. Also stock-outs, or back scenario for maximum profitability. orders, are reduced as the right
  2. 2. products are produced at the right time and share results through the SAS business. The open model repositoryand stocked at the right locations. Supply Chain Intelligence Center using has all statistical methods, including: SAS’ Web access engine across the time series, exponential smoothing,SAS also provides a Multi-Echelon organizational business hierarchy. The Winter’s, ARIMA, ARIMAX, dynamicInventory Optimization component as solution features a new demand regression, UCM and custom methods.an optional feature to SAS Demand- planning workbench that providesDriven Forecasting that includes workflow to generate a final consensus Flexible data modeling allows you todistribution requirements planning forecast. The weighted consensus model large and complex forecasting(DRP) reporting, sensitivity analysis and forecast, along with individual fore- structures and easily make changes toscenario planning capabilities. casts, will populate a “gap” report, your forecast model to reflect changes in providing information that can be your business and product structures.Generate a more accurate consensus utilized during the S&OP process to For example, use forecast models forforecast with gap analysis and strategies high-volume manufactured products, finalize a consensus forecast thatreporting across all business units helps drive all downstream planning highly seasonal products, promotedThe overall forecasting process and functions and/or systems. products and slow-moving items withworkflow are enhanced with SAS’ more intermittent demand.structured approach provided with the Large-scale automated statisticaladvanced consensus forecasting model selection and optimization Event modeling consoleplanner workbench supported by with hierarchical reconciliation Model the effects of sales promotions,advanced analytics. Statistically SAS’ patented expert-selection forecast marketing events, and other externalgenerated weighted consensus engine analyzes and combines various events (i.e., pricing policy actions,forecasts are created automatically models to produce a forecast that best holidays, severe weather events, etc.)using award-winning weighted com- depicts your organization at every level that affect the forecast. The consolebined forecasting methods. Gap of your corporate and product hierarchy statistically models events to determinereports are generated electronically, for complex supply chain networks with sales lifts associated with promotions,indicating the gap between the financial complex business rules. special marketing events and otherplan, all individual, departmental and irregular activities. Using patentedstatistical baseline forecasts, with notes SAS provides hierarchical forecasting technology in the event model console,indicating reasons. Those reports can for hundreds of thousands of data series you can choose among several eventbe viewed through the SAS Supply and synchronizes and allocates forecasts types including pulse, level shift, rampChain Intelligence Center using SAS’ from any level within the hierarchy. Other up/down and temporary events. And,Web access engines. The reports can features include: pre-programmed holiday events arebe reviewed, changed and written back available (e.g., Christmas, Easter, • Interactive point-and-click interface to the SAS Demand-Driven Forecasting Thanksgiving and others). (GUI).data model during the consensusforecasting process. • Project set-up wizards. What-if analysis and scenario planning • High performance hierarchical With scenario analysis, evaluate statistical engine.Solution Overview exceptions to your sales history and plan • Graphical engine. for future events – including newSAS Demand-Driven Forecasting • Statistical engine to provide various product, location and channel introduc-automatically creates statistical forecasts statistical calculations (e.g., MAPE, tion. Conduct what-if analyses usingon a large scale – based on a business MAD, etc.). statistical models to find the optimalhierarchy that utilizes the most current • Filter generator. forecasting scenario based on availablestatistical methods. It allows manual marketing investment strategies. What-ifadjustments by domain experts and A model repository analysis and scenario planning can beautomatically creates a weighted used for any situation, including realistic,consensus forecast based on variation SAS provides the appropriate forecast optimistic and pessimistic projections.between forecasted and actuals. methods to address your product portfolio requirements regarding harvest, Demand planning workbenchMonitoring, tracking and reporting with growth, niche and new product The demand planning workbench allowsalerts allow you to compare the demand, based on the unique market- you to import and consolidate internalforecasts to KPIs, track performance place dynamics associated with your
  3. 3. and external customer forecasts (sales, Key Featuresmarketing, finance and others). Usingwhat-if analysis capabilities, easily adjust Model repository with pre-defined models: • Time series methods the statistical baseline forecasts based • Single Exponential Smoothing on a structured process that incorpo- • Holt’s/Brown’s Two Parameter Exponential Smoothing rates data and analysis – rather than • Winter’s Three Parameter Exponential Smoothing pure judgment – to enhance the • Additive/Multiplicative accuracy of your forecasts. You can • ARIMA automatically create a weighted • Causal methods consensus forecast using SAS’ • ARIMAX (ARIMA with intervention and causal variables) weighted statistical method embedded • Lagged variables/transfer functions in the demand planning workbench. • Dynamic Multiple Regression • UCM (Unobserved Components Model) The automatically generated statistical • Open model repository weighted consensus forecast is • Add your own custom modelssurfaced through the SAS Supply Chain Event modeling console:Intelligence Center, or can be exported • Interactive JAVA GUI to Excel as part of a consensus • Pre-defined holiday events (Christmas, Easter, etc.) forecasting process in support of the • Automatic date realignment for Easter and other moving holidays S&OP planning process. The reports • Customer event creator • Four event types can be shared across the enterprise us- • Pulse ing the SAS Supply Chain Intelligence • Ramp up/down dashboard Web access engine. • Level shift Centralized, collaborative templates are • Temporary used to simplify the enterprisewide con- What-if analysis and scenario planning:sensus forecasting process using the • Plug-in into the DDF applications dashboardDemand Planning Workbench workflow • What-if planning capabilities using model parameter estimates to finalize the consensus forecast and • Ability to change model parameter estimates to determine effects on forecastsdrive S&OP requirements planning. Demand planning workbench: • Interactive Consensus Planner workbench (workflow) with GUI An automated interactive application and • Automatic weighted consensus forecast generator set of screens and reports help you • Override templates with drill down/up capabilitiescollect and consolidate internal and • Web Access for sharing, viewing and authorized changesexternal forecasts to create a consensus Monitor, track and report:forecast to drive the S&OP process. • Supply Chain Intelligence Center Dashboard with KPIs/Metrics Forecasts can be averaged or weighted • Series of interactive forecasting monitoring and tracking reports based on past performance for recon- • Series of alerts (graphical/tabulator) monitor excepts ciliation. Assessment routines can be • Drill down/up capabilities performed against financial KPIs todetermine the financial impact from arevenue management perspective. The SAS application provides Web- Technical Requirements enabled reports to monitor and trackMonitoring, tracking and reporting forecast performance and interaction Client environment with the demand planning workbench, • Windows (x86-32): Windows 2000 Monitor, track and report with drillable allowing access on an enterprisewide Professional, Windows XP Professionalalerts surfaced through a balancedscorecard, or dashboard. Surface basis. Included in the dashboard are • Internet Explorer 6 and laterforecasting results with KPIs and alerts to identify key issues related to • Microsoft Office 2000 or later performance metrics through a series of forecast performance – such as (for Microsoft Office add-in)monitoring, tracking and reporting exception reports and iterative reviews of • Microsoft .NET framework 1.1 capabilities using the SAS Supply Chain the consensus forecast. (for Microsoft Office add-in)Intelligence Center.
  4. 4. Additional software• JRE: 1.4.2_09 (Sun)• MySQL Pro 5.0.22• MySQL Connector/J 5.0.3, commercial versionServer environmentSAS Servers, including Base SAS and SAS Metadata Server, can be installedon one or more hardware systems in amultitier configuration.Operating Systems• AIX: Release 5.2 / 5.3 • Windows (x86-32): Windows NT 4 Server, Windows 2000 Server, Windows Server 2003 Figure 1. Supply Chain Intelligence Center featuring the Interactive Business• Solaris SPARC Version 10 Intelligence Dashboard.Additional software• BEA WebLogic 8.1 service pack 3• MySQL 5.0.22Mid-tier environmentAdditional required/optional software:• SAS client and mid-tier require JRE 1.4.2_09• BEA WebLogic 8.1 service pack 3• WebSphere Application Server Network Deployment Version Figure 2. What-if analysis and simulation application helps planners make overrides in a more structured environment using data and analytics versus pure judgment. SAS Institute Inc. World Headquarters +1 919 677 8000 To contact your local SAS office, please visit: www.sas.com/offices SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc. in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration. Other brand and product names are trademarks of their respective companies. Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.103465_S75042.0611