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A 	   M A C R O E V O L U T I O N A R Y 	   P E R S P E C T I V E 	   O N 	             HEROEN VERBRUGGEN, UNIVERSITY OF M...
Vanessa	  Marcelino	         Lennert	  Tyberghein	                     Sofie	  D’hondt	                         OUwie	  sup...
Zachos	  et	  al.	  2008	  Nature	  451:	  279	  
Do	  niches	  evolve	  faster	  when	  climate	  is	  changing?	                                      	  Any	  evidence	  ...
Dictyota	     Codium	  
Do	  niches	  evolve	  faster	  when	  climate	  is	  changing?	  
warming	   stable	  cooling	  
warming	       stable	        cooling	     0.572	     <	  0.001	     0.634	  
warming	            stable	          cooling	     0.572	          <	  0.001	       0.634	                 Not	  idenGfiable...
Any	  evidence	  for	  adaptaFon?	  
warming	   stable	  cooling	  
warming	     stable	     cooling	  α	                    0.015	  θ	        4.77	      12.1	       26.1	  σ2	              ...
Does	  adaptaFon	  trace	  climate	  change?	  
Does	  the	  niche	  affect	  lineage	  diversificaFon?	  
Species diversity                 low                highTittensor et al. (2010) Nature 466: 1098-1107 — Jablonski et al. ...
but seaweeds…Kerswell (2006) Ecology 10: 2479-2488
Map courtesy of Tom Schils
Codium	  -­‐	  SST	  affiniGes	  along	  tree	       C1	        C2	                  C3	            Are speciation rates    ...
Model	  of	  diversificaGon	  dynamics	    DiversificaGon	  funcGon	  of	  trait	  of	  interest	               (in	  our	  ...
Codium	  -­‐	  DiversificaGon	  and	  SST	    C1	         C2	                        C3	                          β = 0.18 ...
β	  =	  0.18	  ±	  0.026	  
β	  =	  0.018	  ±	  0.021	  β	  =	  0.18	  ±	  0.026	  
Caveats	          	          	          	  you	  betcha…	  
Caveats	  Uncertainty	                              Known	  unknowns	     •    PhylogeneGc	  trees	                 •  Sen...
Conclusions	                 	   No	  one	  size	  fits	  all	                 	  No	  flies	  on	  the	  wall	             ...
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae
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A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae

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A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae

  1. 1. A   M A C R O E V O L U T I O N A R Y   P E R S P E C T I V E   O N   HEROEN VERBRUGGEN, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNEL E N N E RT T Y B E R G H E I N & O L I V I E R D E C L E R C K , G H E N T U N I V E R S I T Y
  2. 2. Vanessa  Marcelino   Lennert  Tyberghein   Sofie  D’hondt   OUwie  support:  Jeremy  Beaulieu   Bouncing  ideas:  Olivier  De  Clerck  
  3. 3. Zachos  et  al.  2008  Nature  451:  279  
  4. 4. Do  niches  evolve  faster  when  climate  is  changing?    Any  evidence  for  adaptaGon  of  the  thermal  niche?     Does  adaptaGon  trace  climate  change?         Does  the  niche  affect  lineage  diversificaGon?    
  5. 5. Dictyota   Codium  
  6. 6. Do  niches  evolve  faster  when  climate  is  changing?  
  7. 7. warming   stable  cooling  
  8. 8. warming   stable   cooling   0.572   <  0.001   0.634  
  9. 9. warming   stable   cooling   0.572   <  0.001   0.634   Not  idenGfiable  
  10. 10. Any  evidence  for  adaptaFon?  
  11. 11. warming   stable  cooling  
  12. 12. warming   stable   cooling  α   0.015  θ   4.77   12.1   26.1  σ2   0.702   α   0.165   θ   151k   120   16.4  σ2   5.96  
  13. 13. Does  adaptaFon  trace  climate  change?  
  14. 14. Does  the  niche  affect  lineage  diversificaFon?  
  15. 15. Species diversity low highTittensor et al. (2010) Nature 466: 1098-1107 — Jablonski et al. (2006) Science 314: 102-106
  16. 16. but seaweeds…Kerswell (2006) Ecology 10: 2479-2488
  17. 17. Map courtesy of Tom Schils
  18. 18. Codium  -­‐  SST  affiniGes  along  tree   C1   C2   C3   Are speciation rates higher in the tropics?
  19. 19. Model  of  diversificaGon  dynamics   DiversificaGon  funcGon  of  trait  of  interest   (in  our  case,  SST)   1 λ= − β .SST +α 1+ e
  20. 20. Codium  -­‐  DiversificaGon  and  SST   C1   C2   C3   β = 0.18 ± 0.026
  21. 21. β  =  0.18  ±  0.026  
  22. 22. β  =  0.018  ±  0.021  β  =  0.18  ±  0.026  
  23. 23. Caveats        you  betcha…  
  24. 24. Caveats  Uncertainty   Known  unknowns   •  PhylogeneGc  trees   •  SensiGvity  of  analyses   •  Molecular  clock   •  How  much  data  is   •  Climate  history  (δ18O)   enough?   •  Parameter  esGmates   Where  next  Reduced  complexity   •  Test  methods  with  solid   •  ExGncGon   datasets  &  simulaGons   •  Integrate  uncertainty   •  Intraspecific  variaGon   using  fully  Bayesian   •  Climate  history   approach  
  25. 25. Conclusions     No  one  size  fits  all    No  flies  on  the  wall    Nerds  rule  the  game    

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