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Mobile messaging futures 2013 2017

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Mobile messaging futures 2013 2017

  1. 1. Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Analysis and Growth Forecasts for Mobile Messaging Markets Worldwide: SMS, MMS, OTT and Email: 7th Edition
  2. 2. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 25 Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Mobile Messaging Revenue The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 218 billion in 2012. This number is forecast to rise to USD 230 billion in 2013, registering a year-on-year growth of 5.5 percent. Among the four mobile messaging services covered in this report, SMS yielded the highest revenue for operators in 2012.The figure below depicts worldwide mobile messaging revenue over the period 2010 to 2017. Figure 8: Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2010 – 2017F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted As shown in the figure above, our forecasts indicate that revenue from mobile messaging services will peak in 2015, and thereafter start declining. Different regions will enter the decline phase at different times, starting with North America, as shown in the following table. Table 1: Mobile Messaging Revenue Growth Trend – Regional and Worldwide Region Mobile Messaging Revenue – Growth Trend 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Europe        Asia Pacific        North America        Latin America        Middle East& Africa        Total        Source: Portio Research Ltd. 172.8 201.4 218.1 230.0 236.8 239.7 236.7 227.1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F MobileMessagingRevenue (InUSDBillion) Year
  3. 3. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 37 Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Growth of SMS • SMS traffic reached 100 billion from 0.5 billion in just 3 years (1996-1999). • Over the next four years (1999-2003) SMS traffic increased to 450 billion • In another two years (2003-2005) traffic breached the one trillion mark • SMS traffic crossed the 5 trillion mark in 2009. • SMS traffic to peak in 2015 – 8.3 trillion messages Figure 16: SMS Traffic Growth (In Billion, 1992-2017F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Worldwide As shown in our forecasts, more than eight trillion messages will be sent in 2013. The number of text messages will increase to around 8.3 trillion in full-year 2014. Worldwide SMS traffic will continue to increase until reaching peak traffic in 2015, after which it will start declining. The key drivers maintaining growth from 2011 through 2015 is the continuing growth of the global mobile subscriber base, primarily driven by developing economies in Asia, Africa, Latin America and The Middle East. The key driver behind the decline from 2015 through 2017 is the shift away from SMS in mature markets (North America, Europe, parts of Asia Pacific) as smartphone penetration increase and more users shift their communications to OTT messaging apps and popular social networks. The figure below depicts year-on-year SMS traffic for the period 2010-2017. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F 2015F 2017F SMSTraffic(InBilllion) Year Traffic reached 0.5 billion Traffic reached 100 billion Traffic reached 450 billion Traffic passes 1 trillion Traffic passes 5 trillion Maximum annual traffic 8.3 trillion 4:DeclinePhase
  4. 4. 68 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Luxembourg Over the period 2010-2012, SMS traffic in Luxembourg increased at a CAGR of 19.2 percent to reach 1 billion in 2012, up from 0.7 billion during the full-year 2010. In addition, monthly average SMS traffic per subscriber also increased from 84 messages per month during 2010, to 109 messages per month during 2012. The figure below captures total SMS traffic and monthly SMS traffic per subscriber for Luxembourg for the period 2010-2012. Malta Total SMS traffic in Malta increased marginally to 0.6 billion in 2012 up from 0.57 billion in 2011. However, during 2012, the monthly average SMS use per subscriber declined by 5.9 percent to 92 messages in 2012, from 98 messages during 2011. The figure below shows the SMS traffic and SMS use per subscriber per month for the period 2010-2012. The Netherlands The SMS market in The Netherlands has been a market under the spotlight for the last few years, as one of those markets to watch for signs of change in the European SMS space. Any changes in SMS Figure 58: SMS Traffic and SMS Use per Subscriber per Month – Luxembourg (2010 – 2012) Source: Portio Research Ltd. Figure 59: SMS Traffic and SMS Use per Subscriber per Month – Malta (2010 – 2012) Source: Portio Research Ltd. 0.7 0.9 1.0 84.0 102.9 108.7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2010 2011 2012 SMSuseperSubscriberper Month SMSTraffic(InBillion) Year SMS Traffic SMS Per Subscriber Per Month 0.61 0.57 0.60 116.5 97.9 92.1 0 25 50 75 100 125 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 2010 2011 2012 SMSuseperSubscriberper Month SMSTraffic(InBillion) Year SMS Traffic SMS Per Subscriber Per Month
  5. 5. 154 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 KakaoTalk Introduction Launched in March 2010, KakaoTalk is the most popular OTT messaging app in South Korea. The app developer intends to expand its reach to other South Asian and South East Asian markets in the near future. The messaging app supports 13 different languages including English, Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese and Portuguese. The figure below gives an overview of this OTT messaging app. Figure 165: KakaoTalk – Key Details Source: Portio Research Ltd. Number of Users The company broke even in September 2012 and had close to 90 million registered users at the end of April 2013. 16 The figure below depicts the messaging apps’ month-on-month user base growth. Figure 166: KakaoTalk User Base (In Million, Sep 2010 – Apr 2013) Source: Multiple Sources & Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated 16 Source: http://thenextweb.com/apps/2013/05/27/koreas-kakaohome-passes-one-million-downloads-after-doubling-user-base- in-four-days/ •March 2010Launch Date •South KoreaPrimary Markets • iOS, Android, Bada OS, BlackBerry and Windows handsets Platforms Supported •Text Messages •Images, Videos Services Offered • In-app Advertising, Digital Goods, Game Platform and Mobile Commerce Revenue Model 1.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 90.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sep-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 UserBase (InMillion) Month
  6. 6. 200 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Saudi Arabia The number of users of OTT messaging in Saudi Arabia increased from 9.4 million at the end of full year 2011 to 12.9 million at the end of 2012. As smartphone penetration increases, we forecast that the number of OTT messaging users will reach 29 million by the end of 2017, implying a CAGR of 18 percent over the next five years. South Africa South Africa has always represented the leading mobile market in the region, and rapid adoption of smartphones in the country has given rise to a fast growing and sizeable OTT market. The number of OTT messaging users in South Africa increased from 3.2 million users at the end of 2011 to 5.3 million users by end-2012. Since this growth trend is expected to continue in the short to medium term, we expect the number of OTT messaging users to increase to 23.8 million users at the end of full year 2017. Figure 231: OTT Users – Saudi Arabia (2011 – 2017F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Figure 232: OTT Users – South Africa (2011 – 2017F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 9.4 12.9 16.8 20.6 24.1 26.8 29.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F OTTUsers(InMillion) Year 3.2 5.3 8.3 11.9 16.0 20.0 23.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F OTTUsers(InMillion) Year
  7. 7. 290 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Brazil The giant of the region, Brazil saw the number of mobile e-mail users rise rapidly from 13.7 million at the end of 2011, to 25.5 million users by the close of 2012. It is estimated that by the end of 2017, this number will have risen to 97.1 million users, owing to a handsome CAGR of 31 percent over the next five years. Mexico The mobile e-mail user base in Mexico stood at 4.9 million at the end of 2011. The number more than doubled to reach 10.4 million by the end of 2012. With the rise in the penetration of smartphones in the country from 26.6 percent at the end of 2012 to 65.9 percent by the end of 2017, we forecast that mobile e-mail users will increase to reach 35.4 million users in 2017 registering an excellent CAGR of 28 percent over the next five years. Figure 361: Mobile E-mail Users – Brazil (In Million, 2011 – 2017F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Figure 362: Mobile E-mail Users – Mexico (In Million, 2011 – 2017F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 13.7 25.5 37.3 51.4 67.1 82.4 97.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F MobileE-mailUsers(InMillion) Year 4.9 10.4 15.1 20.3 25.8 30.9 35.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F MobileE-mailUsers(InMillion) Year
  8. 8. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 301 Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 In 2013 SMS is expected to generate USD 15.3 million per hour for MNOs worldwide. By comparison OTT messaging services will generate USD 2.6 million per hour, the bulk of which will reach MNOs in the form of data usage charges. Figure 375: SMS Vs. OTT Revenue Comparison for 2013 Source: Portio Research Ltd. Full year revenues for 2013 as forecasted
  9. 9. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 343 Mobile Messaging Futures 2013-2017 Also available from Portio Research Limited Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing reports, handbooks, directories and database products. New and Best Selling Reports include: If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail: info@portioresearch.com Copyright 2013. Portio Research Limited 2013 www.portioresearch.com Mobile Applications Futures 2013-2017 Analysis and Growth Forecasts for the Worldwide Mobile Applications Market The apps business has finally ‘come of age’ and this worldwide success story is now growing fast. Apps generated an impressive USD 12 billion in full-year 2012, and in total 46 billion apps were downloaded in the year, taking the cumulative all-time total downloads since the app game began, to 83 billion. That is certainly a market in rapid growth, just look at those numbers again. The all-time cumulative total number of downloads stood at 37 billion at the end of 2011, but reached 83 billion by the end of 2012, more than doubling in one year. So in 2012, more apps were downloaded that in the previous 5 years all added together. Please click here for more details. Strategies For Creating Best-In-Class Mobile Apps Best practice in apps development and winning go-to-market strategies for launching revenue-generating mobile applications. This insightful and easy-to-understand report offers you - • Case studies of leading Best-In-Class apps • Profiles of world leading apps developers • Brief case studies of successful apps in selected countries • Analysis of the key factors that make an app into a big hit • Details of Go-To-Market Strategies for successful revenue-generating apps Plus, identify which markets are right for certain types of apps, see regional differences, and explore pricing strategies. Please click here for more details. Mobile Payments 2013-2017 Analysis and forecasts for the worldwide market for mobile payment services, including mobile wallet services and NFC technology. Now published in its 3rd all-new edition, Mobile Payments offers you detailed analysis of international mobile commerce markets, including the growth of mobile wallet services, the highs and lows of NFC technology and the growth of mobile banking and remittance services. This detailed all-new report includes all the market sizing data and 5 year forecasts you need, plus case studies, country-market assessments, vendor profiles and more. Please click here for more details.

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