These are the slide used at a speech in Shanghai on May 9, 2007. The presentation lays out a vision for the future of technology (specifically for mobility) for 20 years. You may not agree with the vision. The objective is use this as a catalyst for conversations.

1. 20 Year Outlook
Philip McKinney
podcast@killerinnovations.com

2. Rewind: 1987
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3. Freeze-frame: Today
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4. Fast-Forward: Tomorrow 2027
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5. What is going to change?
Social Dynamics
•
Personal Entertainment
•
Intelligent Networks
•
Gadgets
•
Ubiquitous Content
•
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6. Social Dynamics
media experiences converge
[2010]
Mediascape-like experiences enable the enhancement
the physical and
of virtual entertainment overlays to physical world
scenarios for gaming and interactive tourism
virtual worlds will
virtual collaboration
[2015]
blur
Globalization will drive the need for virtual
collaboration (leverage the best expertise wherever it
is)
Second Life communities
[2020]
Virtual environments will be highly usable,
personalized, and preferred for interaction and
community building for lifestyle and business value.
virtual communities gain legal status
[2025]
Virtual communities will gain recognition as distinct
entities separate from the physical world with its
unique needs for rights, privacy and law.
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7. Personal Entertainment
smart TV’s
[2007]
Digital TV’s are “always connected” and offer a
media and
multitude of movie, music, gaming, and interactive
entertainment through new content providers.
entertainment
smart house
[2015]
with no
Intelligent devices in the home will seamlessly interact
with each other and share personalities
boundaries
content anywhere and any device
[2020]
Content will be dynamic and accessible via any device
or multitude of devices wherever the users have a
desire.
entertainment at-will
[2025]
Personal entertainment will be driven by desire with
little or no consideration for time, location, context, or
technology…it just happens when we want it.
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8. Intelligent Networks
[2010] always connected
Seamless sessions through smart hand-off between
overlapping network boundaries
seamless always
federated networks
connected
[2015]
The Internet will be a concatenation of federated
connectivity
networks with seamless access and content across all
network boundaries.
mesh networks everywhere
[2020]
Anypoint-to-anypoint networks will be commonplace
providing peer-to-peer access to all content in cities,
communities, homes, and BANs (Body Area
Networks).
the pervasive network
[2025]
All static, nomadic, and mobile entities will be
connected and able to interact in real-time. Interaction
will be people-people, machine-machine, people-
machine.
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9. Gadgets
mobile broadband
[2010]
Handheld and portable devices possess ubiquitous
connectivity to cellular and broadband networks.
always personal
the new personal computing
[2015]
in all ways
People’s new work+play lifestyles will incorporate
personal computing devices for all aspects: health,
finance, entertainment, business, communicating,
recreation.
strong-specific
[2020]
While there may be a few multi-function (i.e., weak-
general) devices, most will be purpose built strong-
specific that will perform 1-2 functions in people’s lives.
cognitive devices
[2025]
People will have numerous network-aware, behavior-
aware devices in their lives with interface and
interaction via natural speech and motor methods
without keyboards or mice.
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10. Ubiquitous Content
programmed and online content
[2010]
Scheduled cable and broadcast programming is
increasingly offered online and over mobile networks.
liquid media
open networks
[2015]
Walled gardens and closed/controlled networks have
migrated to open, QoS-aware, service-rich networks.
Games
personalized advertising
[2020]
Advertising is desired due to personalized, contextual,
Movies
and rich integration with main media and content.
Music
on-demand content
[2025]
Over-the-air broadcast content has been displaced
TV
largely for unicast, multi-cast, and peer-to-peer content
with on-demand access. Scheduled programming has
given way to location and persona context awareness.
Photos
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11. Concerns and Issues
Pervasiveness of connectivity elevate privacy
•
concerns
Communications and information overload will
•
be the norm
Always-connected and always-on capabilities
•
will be advantageous
. . . but so will control
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12. Contact for Phil McKinney:
Email: podcast@killerinnovations.com
Blog: www.philmckinney.com
Podcast: www.killerinnovations.com
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