Mobile is Everyware

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Presentation to UCISA conference in Edinburgh March 2011.

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  • A presentation that made me think at the time and has continued to inform me. It will shape my thoughts for the work we are doing. The modern mobile ecosystem chimes with our design methods and thoughts about future development. Paul sees the waves of mobile innovation coming and gives us a framework to evaluate the impact, in our case on the learning sector.
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Mobile is Everyware

  1. 1. 1 “Mobile is Everyware”Current & Future Trends in Mobile UCISA Conference, Edinburgh (March 2011) http://wirelesswanders.com Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  2. 2. Paul G - he’s from the future :) 2 @pgolding Not an educationalist - A “mobilist” 21st year in mobile tech/biz 16 patents in mobile chipset design PhD research in Mobile VRFounded one of the earliest mobile ISVs in Europe Chief Apps Architect Motorola Advised companies: €10k - €10B Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle East, N. Am, Latam “Intrapreneur” at O2’s The Lab “Future” guy...
  3. 3. Written a few books... 3
  4. 4. The key theme of this presentation... 4 Mobile is“everyware” (thanks @m1ke_ellis)
  5. 5. A device most of us have most of the time... 5 Source:ITU
  6. 6. A device most of us have most of the time... 51.2 Billion mobiles sold annually! Source:ITU
  7. 7. A device most of us have most of the time... 51.2 Billion mobiles sold annually! >90% world now has access 90% MBB in 5 years (LTE era) Source:ITU
  8. 8. A device most of us have most of the time... 5 1.2 Billion mobiles sold annually! >90% world now has access 90% MBB in 5 years (LTE era)In 59 countries: Source:ITU
  9. 9. A device most of us have most of the time... 5 1.2 Billion mobiles sold annually! >90% world now has access 90% MBB in 5 years (LTE era)In 59 countries: > Source:ITU
  10. 10. A device most of us have most of the time... 5 1.2 Billion mobiles sold annually! >90% world now has access 90% MBB in 5 years (LTE era)In 59 countries: > 200,000 6 Trillion Global text messages per second Source:ITU
  11. 11. It gets a lot of attention... 6The average teensends or receives text messages every month Source: Nielsen
  12. 12. It gets a lot of attention... 6The average teensends or receives 3,339 (Girls - 4050, Boys - 2039) text messages every month Let’s say 15s per text ~ 14 hours of attention(15-24 yrs spend average of 9 hours per month SN sites) Source: Nielsen
  13. 13. Coalesced with the Internet... 71999 Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  14. 14. Coalesced with the Internet... 7 Mobile 1.0 1999 2GFirst internet-capable mobile Poor user experience Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  15. 15. Coalesced with the Internet... 7 Mobile 1.0 1999 2007 2GFirst internet-capable mobile Poor user experience Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  16. 16. Coalesced with the Internet... 7 Mobile 1.0 “Mobile 2.0” 1999 2007 2G 3.5GFirst internet-capable mobile First internet-centric mobile Poor user experience Usable! (~100x processing power) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  17. 17. A mainstream experience... 8“Mobile 2.0” Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  18. 18. A mainstream experience... 8 “Mobile 2.0” 2007 (Early Adopters)Internet-centric devices Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  19. 19. A mainstream experience... 8 “Mobile 2.0” Mobile 2.0 2007 (Early Adopters) 2011 (Mainstream)Internet-centric devices Connected platforms Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  20. 20. A mainstream experience... 8 “Mobile 2.0” Mobile 2.0 2007 (Early Adopters) 2011 (Mainstream)Internet-centric devices Connected platforms Dec 2010 - 50.3% devices sold ~35% penetration (UK) ~70% growth Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  21. 21. A mainstream experience... 8 “Mobile 2.0” Mobile 2.0 2007 (Early Adopters) 2011 (Mainstream)Internet-centric devices Connected platforms Dec 2010 - 50.3% devices sold ~35% penetration (UK) ~70% growth “everyware” Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  22. 22. And now mostly a 2-horse race... 9 “everyware” +115% EU5 Source: Asymco Source: (via VisionMobile, Tomi Ahonen) +951% EU5 comScore
  23. 23. Moved beyond voice and text... 10 Organise lunch Detect offers Find a popular place Share video clips Hail a taxiTalking Sense “friend of a friend” Compare shopping pricesTexting Scan & Share the bill Pin feedback in mid-air Swap stuff Do, Do, Do! 300K apps “everyware” Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  24. 24. Apps are increasing in usage... 11 Source: comScore 40% UK 35% UK
  25. 25. Evolutionary offshoots = the tablet 12Mobile 2.0 Tablet 1.0 First internet-centric mobile First people-friendly computers Usable! Productive! Info snacking! Feasting! (Meal consumed elsewhere) (DO STUFF FOR REAL) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  26. 26. Not just a big iPhone after all... 13Professional music Health Powerful vertical uses (+ Games etc.) Education Broadcast
  27. 27. Where to next? Escaping the PC... 14 “design freedom” Utility Experience “IT freedom” Post PC? “data freedom” Local Cloud Source: Asymco interesting side-note: 42% tablets shared by their owners
  28. 28. 15 And now forsomeware different...
  29. 29. Surfing the real world - Augmented Web 16Real Virtual AlphaPunk office N W E S “everyware”
  30. 30. Surfing the real world - Augmented Reality 17 Wikitudehttp://www.augmentreality.co.uk/ Junaio
  31. 31. Sensing the real world - Augmented Web 18 SightSecurity (Camera) Money Touch (NFC) Access MotionControl (Accelerometer) Touch (Temperature) Direction (Compass) SoundMetering (Microphone) Remote sensing (Bluetooth) Body Engines “Sensorware”
  32. 32. Connecting the real world... 19 http://paulg.stuff/car/245534462342 The Internet of Things /vitals/heart... Moore’s Law + 4G LTE Networks + Web/trainers/wear/.. /watch/temperature/.. Everything that can benefit from being connected will be /home/windows/.. connected by 2020
  33. 33. Streaming sensor data to the cloud... 20 “Sensor Net” Big Data real real real time time time storage processing output CloudDistributed sensor grids Computing Sensor Analytics
  34. 34. Real-time Web 21 “everyware” e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment stream e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. Sensor streamRight events Right-time Webin real-time (streams)
  35. 35. 22 BUT...Is the platform open? to developers/publishers/creators/ideators etc.
  36. 36. Mobile began in a telco universe... 23Old world - Closed! Developers Tools &! Software Operator! Platform CLOSED Licensors! (Content) Internal! Applications but... Partners Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  37. 37. And shifted to the Inter-Web... 24New world - Open! OPENOPEN Ideation +! Developers Programming OPEN Tools &! Open source Software OPEN OPENING Web 2.0! Platform Internet! Services/! (e.g. Flickr,! Google,! Content Yahoo,! Facebook,! Operator! Blogs,! Platform Etc.) OPEN "Mash-Up"! Services OPEN Internal! Partners (e.g. geo-blogging! Services = Location + blog + photos/videos) Producers! Operator Ecosystem Advertisers Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  38. 38. And shifted to the Inter-Web... 24New world - Open! OPENOPEN Ideation +! Developers Programming OPEN Tools &! Open source Software OPEN OPENING Web 2.0! Platform Internet! Services/! (e.g. Flickr,! Google,! Content Yahoo,! Facebook,! Operator! Blogs,! Platform Etc.) OPEN "Mash-Up"! Services OPEN Internal! Partners (e.g. geo-blogging! Services = Location + blog + photos/videos) Producers! Operator Ecosystem Advertisers Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
  39. 39. An irreversible shift towards Internet... 25 2007 apps Web OScomms Telco Guys Handset OEMs Internet Guys
  40. 40. An irreversible shift towards Internet... 25 2007 2011 apps apps Web Web OS OScomms comms Telco Guys Handset OEMs Internet Guys
  41. 41. An irreversible shift towards Internet... 25 2007 2011 2014 Experience apps apps Platforms Web Web apps OS OS Webcomms comms OS comms Telco Guys Handset OEMs Internet Guys
  42. 42. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26 e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment stream e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. Sensor stream
  43. 43. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26 e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment streamRight-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. Sensor stream
  44. 44. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26 e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment streamRight-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. Sensor stream
  45. 45. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26Right-time SeamlessComputer Computing e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment streamRight-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. Sensor stream
  46. 46. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26Right-time SeamlessComputer Computing e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment streamRight-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. Sensor stream IaaS CaaS NaaS BIG DATA Cloud Platforms Telco
  47. 47. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26Right-time SeamlessComputer Computing e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream e.g. games, media content etc. Entertainment streamRight-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. SaaS Sensor stream PaaS “The Web Operating System” Real-time bus “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth Linked Data Payments IaaS CaaS NaaS BIG DATA Cloud Platforms Telco
  48. 48. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26Right-time SeamlessComputer Computing e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Information stream “Experience Platforms” content etc. e.g. games, media Entertainment stream HTML5 Android iOS ?Right-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. SaaS Sensor stream PaaS “The Web Operating System” Real-time bus “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth Linked Data Payments IaaS CaaS NaaS BIG DATA Cloud Platforms Telco
  49. 49. The modern mobile ecosystem... 26Right-time SeamlessComputer Computing e.g. people, via voice, messaging, social networks etc. Social stream e.g. news, emails, RSS, etc. Social Status Wallet Context Information stream Multi-UX Interests Apps “Experience Platforms” content etc. e.g. games, media Entertainment stream HTML5 Android iOS ?Right-time Augmented Web e.g. appointments, notications, things I need to do etc. Event stream e.g. health, home, car, roads monitoring etc. SaaS Sensor stream PaaS “The Web Operating System” Real-time bus “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth Linked Data Payments IaaS CaaS NaaS BIG DATA Cloud Platforms Telco
  50. 50. Voice still has a BIG future.... 27 2010 2012Closed voice Open voice http:// - the new dial tone plus “Voice as content” (2014)
  51. 51. Possible “Everyware” tipping points (TP)... 28 Apps Hardware, OS Experience Platforms Hardware, Post PC Sensor AR, Devices Proliferation HealthNetwork, “everyware”LTE (100 Mbps) Abundant Cloud Access when mobile really is first Computing “Right-time” Seamless PaaS Real-time web Computing SaaS Identity, & meta-data Privacyabundance of opportunities throughout the ecosystem
  52. 52. What does this all mean? 29 Meaning? Media theorist - Neil Postman: Tech is transformative: Europe + printing press ≠ Europe + books = New Europe
  53. 53. The augmented human... 30 ”Everyware” is transformative: Person + right-time computer ≠ personalized computing = new “person!” “Augmented Cognition?” (real-time)cognitionnounthe mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding throughthought, experience, and the senses.• a result of this; a perception, sensation, notion, or intuition.
  54. 54. How can we embrace it for educational good? 31“everyware?” Augmented education? “Right-ware” education? UCISA innovation challenge:What is “right-ware” education?How can UK institutions lead?
  55. 55. 32 Thank YouPaul Goldingpaul@wirelesswanders.comwirelesswanders.com @pgolding (C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010

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