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SIS Immortality Transition for KPS spring meeting 2015
Presentation slides for the KPS spring meeting 2015 (April 23, 12:15 in the Biophysics session). Ultra minimalistic design, just like the arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.01909
Presentation slides for the KPS spring meeting 2015 (April 23, 12:15 in the Biophysics session). Ultra minimalistic design, just like the arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.01909
SIS Immortality Transition for KPS spring meeting 2015
1.
The SIS immortality transition in small networks
Petter Holme
Sungkyunkwan University
2.
The SIS model
Models diseases where re-infection is possible
Gonorrhea, Chlamydia, are exampled from
sexually transmitted infections (and thus appro-
priate for network epidemiology)
A population of susceptible (S) and infectious (I)
When S meets I, there is a probability λ that S
will become I
I becomes S again after some time, or with some
chance per unit of time
3.
Two areas of current research
1.The epidemic threshold (phase transition in λ).
2.The extinction probability as a function of λ.
Both points when N → ∞
4.
The immortality transition
There is another phase transition (threshold)—
when λ = 1. The mean time to extinction
diverges at this point.
It may seem trivial (since it is not an emergent
property in the N → ∞), but we will pretend it is
not.
5.
Our example networks
We could take any small networks with a variety
of network structures, but to honor the network
epidemiology pioneers we use:
D. M. Auerbach, W. W. Darrow, H. W. Jaffe, and
J. W. Curran, Am. J. Med. 76, 487 (1984).
S. Haraldsdottir, S. Gupta, and R. M. Anderson,
J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr. 5, 374 (1992).
12.
Contribution of individual nodes
Measure America Iceland
0-param.
ki 0.73(4) 0.974(2)
ni 0.82(4) 0.75(5)
mi 0.83(3) 0.965(2)
i 0.64(4) 0.917(6)
1-param.
max Ki 0.76(5) 0.98(2)
for α 0.17(8) 0.038(5)
max Ri 0.72(6) 0.97(4)
for d 0.99(1) 0.99(1)
ε
a = ζ(G ) / ζ(G)i i
13.
Contribution of individual nodes
a = ζ(G ) / ζ(G)i i
1
2
1
3
3
2
America Iceland
14.
Thanks to
1) You, for listening.
2) National Research Foundation of Korea for funding.
Preprint at: arXiv:1503.01909