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StormGeo: Control in a changing enviromentStorm offshore Forecasts.

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Storm geo beredskap_hilde

  1. 2. Offshore experience Storm offshore Forecasts <ul><li>North Sea </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manually checked and updated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2-4 times daily </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on ECMWF/GFS and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>inhouse WRF/SWAN modelling </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Norwegain Sea </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Statoil, Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, … </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Barents Sea </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Snøhvit, Statoil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adriatic Sea </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ExxonMobil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>South Atlantic Ocean </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Brazil, Peregrino, Statoil </li></ul></ul>
  2. 3. OBSERVATIONS WEATHER- MODEL PHYSICS MATHEMATICS DYNAMICS ++ FORECAST
  3. 7. Offshore web portal 24/7
  4. 9. ECMWF products – global 0.125 deg (16km) resolution Documented high skill
  5. 10. Complex systems - complex modelling StormDrift
  6. 14. Wind and waves - Operational: ECMWF (10-25 km) and WRF (1-9 km). Ocean current - Princeton Ocean Model (MI-POM) - Operational: 1.5 km (blue)/4 km (green), hourly fields. . StormDrift
  7. 15. StormDrift 2 km model resolution 3-6 vertical layers Eularian code 1. Advection with surface current 2. Dispersion by molecular diffusion/surface effects 3. Evaporation 4. Chemical dissolution 5. Aggregation 6. Break-up and dispersion by waves 7. Sedimentation
  8. 16. Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer: 40 FLOPS 1946 Roadrunner: 1.026 peta FLOPS ~1000 trillion FLOPS 2008 First real time NWP September 1954 Modelling and computer power Operasjonell mode 3 dager/minutt StormDrift
  9. 17. Offshore web portal 24/7

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