Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

  1. 1. PETROBRAS’ BUSINESS PLAN AT A GLANCEJosé Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO November, 1st 2011 Thomson Reuters Asia 1
  2. 2. Petrobras’ production targets… 6,418 142 246 1.120 3,993 + 35 Systems 125 180 2,772 618 2,516 2,575 2,386 96 96 93 99 141 +10 Post-Salt Projects 132 144 435 4,910 111 317 334 +8 Pre-Salt Projects 321 +1 Transfer of Rights 3,070 845’000 boe/day Transfer of Rights 1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100 Added Capacity Oil: 2,300,000 bpd 13 Pre-Salt 1,148 543 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020 Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International 2
  3. 3. … will call for critical resources … Delivery Plan (to be contracted) Current Situation Accumulated Value Critical Resources (Dec/10) By 2013 By 2015 By 2020 Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2) Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568 Production Platforms (SS and FPSO) 44 54 61 94 Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83 Supply Vessel Drilling Rig FPSO DRILLING RIGS UNDER CONTRACT Water Depth 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11 1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21 +2 +1 +1 Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15 +10 +13 +1(1) The contracts for two rigs reallocated from international operations expire in 2015(2) Long-term demand will be adjusted according to new assessments 3
  4. 4. … that will be increasingly built in brazil …US$ billion 60 75,40% 75,60% 75,60% 74,60% 76,10% 80% 74,30% 70,00% 70% 50 72,80% 62,20% 67,20% 68,50% 57,00% 66,00% 60% 63,10% 64,00% 59,70% 59,90% 40 57,30% 50% 30 40% 30% 20 20% 10 10% 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Investments in Brazil Total Investments Local Content (target) Local Content (actual) 4
  5. 5. ... as already happens with platforms at the new shipyards Under Construction: P-55: Estaleiro Atlântico Sul – PE (hull) /QUIP- RS (modules) Recently built platform: P-57: BrasFels – RJ  Capacity: 180 thous. boe/day  Value: US$ 1.2 billion  Delivered two months ahead of schedule P-56: Brasfels (RJ) Under Construction: P-61: Brasfels (RJ) P-62: Jurong (ES) FPSO Cidade de Paraty: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration Under Construction: P-63: QUIP (RS) 8 FPSOs (Pre-salt - P-66; P-67; P-68; P-69; P-70; P-71; P-72; P-73 ): Ecovix – Rio Grande (RS) P-58: Estaleiro Rio Grande –RS , UTC Engenharia S/A – RJ e EBE – RJ.  2 Jack-ups under construction (P-59 and P-60) in São Roque (BA)  Inclusion of 900 new suppliers per year in Petrobras Corporate Vendor List  13 new shipyards currently under construction, raising the total number to 50**Source: Sinaval 5
  6. 6. Pre-salt’s development will require new infrastructure 6
  7. 7. Petrobras holds an outstanding resources base … Potential increase Million boe 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salts Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights 7
  8. 8. … and our business plan is mostly funded by operating cash flow Scenario A Scenario B KEY ASSUMPTIONS US$ 256,1 US$ 256,1 US$ 255,6 US$ 255,6 Scenario A Scenario B 13,6 13,6 31,4 30,9 FX rate (R$/US$) 1.73 1.73 26,1 26,1 2011 – 110 2011 – 110 67,0 2012 – 80 2012 – 95 91,4 Brent (US$/bbl) 2013– 80 2013– 95 2014 – 80 2014 – 95 224,7 224,7 2015 – 80 2015 – 95 Leverage 29% 26% 148,9 (average) 125,0 Net debt/ 1.9 1.5 Ebitda (average) ARP (R$/bbl) 158 177 Sources Uses Sources Uses 40% of capex in US$ (vs 37% in the previous plan) Divestments and reestructurings Debt amortization Cash Investiments Debt Operating cash flow (after dividends) 8
  9. 9. To meet the increase in oil products demand in Brazil we will expand our refining capacity ... PREMIUM I (2nd train) 300 kbpd (2019) COMPERJ (2nd train) 165 kbpd (2018) PREMIUM II 300 kbpd COMPERJ (2017) (1st train) 165 kbpd PREMIUM I (2013) (1st train) 300 kbpd 3.327 (2016) ABREU E LIMA 230 kbpd 3.095 (2012) 2.643 2.536 4.910 3.070 3.217(thousand bpd) 2.147 2.100 2.208 2.205 2.004 1.798 1.811 1.393 1.036 181 1980 2010 2011 2015 2020 Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios) 9
  10. 10. ... as well as our ethanol production US$ 4.1 billion 7% 14% 0,3 0,6 1,9 47% 1,3 32% Ethanol Ethanol Logistics Biodiesel R&D Ethanol supply (million m3) Biodiesel supply (thousand m3)Market-share Pbio+Partners: Market-share Pbio+Partners: 2011: 5,3% / 2015: 12% 2011: 28% / 2015: 26% 5,6 273% 16% 855 735 1,5 2011 2015 2011 2015 Pbio + Partners 10
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