The population age 65 and over is increasing at a faster rate than the total population. From 1950 to 2005, the total resident population of the United States increased from 151 million to 296 million, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.2% (Figure 1). During the same period, the population 65 years of age and over grew on average 2.0% per year, increasing from 12 to 37 million persons. The population 75 years of age and over grew the fastest (on average, 2.8% per year), increasing from 4 to 18 million persons. Projections indicate that the rate of growth for the total population from now to 2050 will be slower, but older age groups will continue to grow more rapidly than the total population (1). By 2029, all of the baby boomers (those born in the post World War II period 1946–1964) will be age 65 years and over. As a result, the population age 65–74 years will increase from 6% to 10% of the total population between 2005 and 2030 (data table for Figure 1). As the baby boomers age, the population 75 years and over will also rise from 6% to 9% of the population by 2030 and continue to grow to 12% in 2050. By 2040 the population age 75 years and over will exceed the population 65–74 years of age.
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Tom Atwood, Maplegate Media Group 650 Danbury Road Ridgefield, CT 06877 (203) 431-7787 – www.botmag.com Growing an Industry A National Priority
Monty, created by Anybots.com, attends to kitchen chores
Shadow Dextrous Robot Hand ● Powered by air muscles ● Power to weight as high as 400:1, more than pneumatic cylinders and motors ● Convergence of Technologies
Dexter, created by Anybots.com, walks before he runs ● Does not use Zero Moment Point algorithms but an electronic inner ear ● Learns to walk with pneumatic cylinder power and a neural network ● Possibilities for innovation are endless…
DEFINING THE NEED ● Robotics technologies permeate all spheres of human endeavor ● We are in a global race for technological leadership and robotics is inextricably intertwined with automation, embedded systems, electronics ● Robotics industry workforce needs must be met for the U.S. to preserve its technological leadership ● As a country we must be technically proficient and retain the vitality, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit that has been the hallmark of American civilization
THE QUESTIONS ● How rapidly is the robotics industry growing, and what is driving that growth? ● How does the robotics industry in the U.S. compare with the achievements of other nations? ● Will the U.S. keep pace with its workforce needs? ● How can we work together to best sustain and develop the robotics industry?
Worldwide Robotics Market Growth Source: Japan Robotics Association Market Size ($1,000s) Year $5.6B $5.7B $11.0B $24.9B $66.4B Service & Personal Robotics Markets Service & Personal Robotics Market 2000 $0.6B 2005 $5.4B 2010 $17.1B 2025 $51.7B * Excludes Low Level Electronic Toys Personal and Service Robotics Markets Drive Growth Slide Courtesy of Dan Kara, Robotics Trends
Worldwide Personal/Service Robotics Market Growth Source: Japan Robotics Association “ Next Generation Robots” market reaches $16B in sales by 2025 Slide Courtesy of Dan Kara, Robotics Trends Year Market Size ($B) $1.0B $2.3B $3.8B $5.0B $6.5B $7.9B
Demography Provides Opportunity Slide Courtesy of Dan Kara, Robotics Trends The Population of the United States is Aging 86.7 M 65-74 Years 75 Years and Over 80.0 M 71.5 M 54.6 M 40.2 M 35.0 M 31.1 M 25.5 M 20.1 M 16.6 M 12.1 M Source: National Center for Health Statistics, United States, 2006 Year Population (in Millions)
Industrial, Service and Personal Robotics <ul><li>Mature, established market </li></ul><ul><li>Structured environments (factory floor) </li></ul><ul><li>High price and high entry fees </li></ul><ul><li>Early adopter stage </li></ul><ul><li>Strong growth expected </li></ul><ul><li>Linked to diverse markets (e.g. professional cleaning, homeland security, search and rescue, military, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Early adopter stage </li></ul><ul><li>Exceptional growth expected </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Linked to diverse markets (e.g. home, entertainment, lawn & garden ($22B), toy ($50B), etc. </li></ul></ul>Slide Courtesy of Dan Kara, Robotics Trends Industrial Robots Service Robots Personal Robots
<ul><li>Markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Home care, lawn care </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Toys </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Entertainment robotics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Educational robotics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assistive technology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Opportunities exist all along the robotics value chain </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Parts and enabling technology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>OEM, reseller, retailer, distributor </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Design, development (HW and SW) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aftermarket </li></ul></ul></ul>Entertainment Robotics Market The Net Net Slide Courtesy of Dn Kara, Robotics Trends
HOW ARE WE DOING TODAY? National Science Foundation , Press Release 07-082, July 19, 2007 Number of Published Science and Engineering Articles Flattens, but U.S. Influence Remains Strong ● The U.S. publishes far more papers than any other country, but it’s overall share has declined from 38% in 1973 to 28% in 2003 ● 1992 – 2003: China, Singapore, South korea and Taiwan showed average annual growth rate of 15.9% ● Japan’s output rose at 3.1%; European Union: 2.8% ● U.S.: .6%
Average Annual Growth in S&E Article Output U.S. Europe Japan East Asia-4
Decline in U.S. World Share of S&E Article Output, by Field, 1992—2003 Engineering All fields Math Psych Social Physics Biology Earth/Space Cln.Medicine Chem Biomed
U.S. REMAINS THE WORLD LEADER ● By many measures, including articles published in peer-reviewed journals, the United States has been the world's leading scientific nation for decades and remains the world's leading scientific nation. ● “ While citation is not a perfect indicator, U.S. publications are more highly cited than those from other countries." http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07320/
WTEC Panel Report on INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ROBOTICS January, 2006 http:// wtec.org Sponsored by NSF, NASA, and National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering ● Robotic vehicles ● Space robotics ● Humanoid robots ● Industrial, service and personal robots ● Robotics in biology and medicine ● Networked robots
WTEC –Who is Leading in which Robotics Category? ● U.S. – navigation in outdoor environments, robot architectures (the integration of control, structure and computation), and in applications to space, defense, underwater systems and some aspects of service and personal robots. ● Japan and Korea – technology for robot mobility, humanoid robots, and some aspects of service and personal robots (including entertainment). ● Europe – mobility for structured environments, including urban transportation, and has significant programs in eldercare and home service robotics.
WTEC –Who is Leading in which Robotics Category? ● Australia – commercial applications of field robotics, cargo handling and mining, as well as in the theory and application of localization and navigation U.S. Exposure: ● U.S. lost its preeminence in industrial robotics at the end of the 1980s, so that nearly all robots for welding, painting and assembly are imported from Japan or Europe. ● The U.S. is in danger of losing its leading position in other aspects of robotics as well.
WTEC Report Funding Disparities Japan, Korea, and the European Community invest significantly larger funds in robotics research and development for the private sector than the U.S. ● In Korea, robotics has been selected as one of 10 areas of technology as “engines for economic growth”; the total funding for robotics is about $80 million per year. ● NSF funding for robotics is under $10 million per year; funding from other agencies is small. DARPA support is restricted to military robotics. ● In Europe, a new program called “Advanced Robotics” is about to be funded at about $100 million for three years.
Aviation Week & Space Technology , Feb. 5, 2007, p.48 reported by Amy Butler ● Frank Anderson, president of the Defense Acquisition University, “There is a looming crisis tied to the engineering workforce…[T]hese statistics point to a need for a national strategy on this issue.” ● Air Force Gen. (ret.) Lester Lyles, former 4-star commander of the Air Forces’s acquisition command: “ Some think that NASA should be responsible for trying to work the problem or the Defense Department…I think it goes broader and it needs the Education Dept. working with many, many different organizations with high-level impetus and support…”
Aviation Week & Space Technology , Feb. 5, 2007, p.44 reported by Joseph C. Anselmo Source—Two workforce studies undertaken for Aviation Week & Space Technology by Bain & Co. and Deloitte Consulting ● 1990: 1.1 million U.S. aerospace workers generated $200 billion in sales, adjusting for inflation. 2006: 624,000 workers produced $184 billion in sales ● “ If current trends hold, the industry will be able to replace only about half of the 57,000-68,000 military engineers that are expected to retire by 2010” ● “ The bottom line: a potential shortfall of 41,000-87,000 defense engineers by 2010”
Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future , by the Committee on Prospering in the Global Economy of the 21st Century: An Agenda for American Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, ISBN: 0309-65463-7, (2005). www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html ● This nation must prepare with great urgency to preserve its strategic and economic security. ● United States must compete by optimizing its knowledge-based resources, particularly in science and technology, and by sustaining the most fertile environment for new and revitalized industries and the well-paying jobs they bring.
Rising Above the Gathering Storm--Recommendations ● Increase America’s talent pool by vastly improving K–12 science and mathematics education ● Sustain and strengthen the nation’s traditional commitment to long-term basic research to fuel the economy, provide security, and enhance the quality of life ● Make the United States the most attractive setting in which to study and perform research ● Ensure that the United States is the premier place in the world to innovate; invest in manufacturing and marketing; modernize the patent system, realign tax policies to encourage innovation, and ensuring affordable broadband access
Nation of Innovators Microsoft chairman Bill Gates before the U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions on March 7, 2007 ● First, we must ensure that America’s students and workers have the skills to compete in a digital economy. ● Second, we need to attract and retain the brightest, most talented people from around the world. ● Third, we need to provide a foundation for innovation by investing in ideas and capturing their value.
Myro , (My Robotics), is software that will be used as a tool of the IPRE (Institute for Personal Robots in Education) in the classroom to help boost enrollment and retainment in computer science classes. Institute for Personal Robots in Education (IPRE)
The Solution: Robotics ● Robots are emotionally evocative, tangible and they inspire curiosity about STEM subjects ● Robots are proven learning accelerants, and their use in educational programs is spreading like wildfire ● Robots are not only rooted in science fiction, they have deeply interesting philosophic implications ● Robotics will become part of grade school, high school and university level curriculum across the industrialized world
Project Aiko Android www.project-aiko.com ● AI Neural Network ● 13,000 utterances ● Reads Japanese and English
Botball, KISS Institute ● Since it was founded in 1997, approximately 79,517 individuals including 34,220 students have been impacted by the Botball Program ● About 2,569 teachers have participated in Botball and attended the hands-on Professional Development Educator Workshops ● 100% of teachers surveyed indicated that Botball was a valuable experience for their students ● 93% of students surveyed stated that Botball® was one of the best or better things they’ve ever participated in at school ● 89% of students feel more confident with technology after participating in Botball ● Just over one third of Botball students were undecided about their college careers, and after participating in Botball 100% of these students planned to pursue a degree in a technical or math- related field.
Robot Magazine ● Epiphany: size and critical importance of robotics education ● Students are “turbo-charged” hobbyists ● EDU BOTS section ● Leading Edge Robotics News (LERN)
Robot Magazine wishes to Support Robotics in Education – We Invite You to Partner ● We support students and educators with articles in print and online ● Robot is a multi-media publishing house with experience in web marketing that we can share with our partners ● If you would like to work with Robot, please email me at [email_address] and let me know your interest ● A list of URLs and web references pertaining to growing the robotics industry and the challenges we face that supplements this presentation can be found at www.botmag.com
Tom Atwood Robot magazine, www.botmag.com [email_address] Classes of Consumer Robotics Products