(click here for slides)

726 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
726
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Gerard
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Caroline
  • Gerard
  • (click here for slides)

    1. 1. Messages and Signs Barcelona World Mobile Congress 2010 presented by Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Research Gerard Hallaren, CFA TownHall Investment Research
    2. 2. Overall impressions <ul><li>User experience is the real battleground, from chips to carriers </li></ul><ul><li>Operators huddle together for warmth </li></ul><ul><li>Everyone cautious on LTE, bullish on 3G expansion, offload and new network norms </li></ul><ul><li>Capex is shifting to core and backhaul </li></ul><ul><li>Handset shake-out coming, rescue lies in new formats </li></ul><ul><li>Non-consumer revenue streams are vital, and bring new power to content owners </li></ul><ul><li>Google has shifted goalposts but threatens over-reaching itself </li></ul>In the face of huge broadband demand, carriers are “huddled together” for warmth -- GH 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    3. 3. Winners and losers <ul><li>Making their mark </li></ul><ul><li>Vodafone </li></ul><ul><li>DoCoMo </li></ul><ul><li>Huawei </li></ul><ul><li>Intel </li></ul><ul><li>Marvell </li></ul><ul><li>Cisco/Starent </li></ul><ul><li>Samsung </li></ul><ul><li>Damp squibs* </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft </li></ul><ul><li>Palm </li></ul><ul><li>Google </li></ul><ul><li>Qualcomm </li></ul><ul><li>Sony Ericsson </li></ul><ul><li>T-Mobile/DT </li></ul>I doubt either Google or Qualcomm think of themselves as “damp squibs” - GH * Older uninsulated squibs needed to be kept dry in order to ignite, so a &quot;damp squib&quot; was literally one that failed to explode because it got wet. 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    4. 4. Carriers will not go down without a Fight <ul><ul><li>Wholesale Application Community </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vodafone takes on Google </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New support for LiMO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Telco 2.0’ platforms everywhere </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Delivering the user experience </li></ul></ul>05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    5. 5. World carriers <ul><li>Network frontrunners </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiMAX: KDDI/UQ, Sprint/Clearwire, Yota </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HSPA+: Telstra, Vodafone, 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LTE: Telia, Tele2, Verizon, DoCoMo </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Business innovators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Telefonica </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vodafone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>America Movil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China and Japan </li></ul>05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    6. 6. 5 Infrastructure themes <ul><li>1. Tiered pricing preparation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence through the network </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Super-core versus offload/distributed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Looking to ‘true 4G’ but HSPA+ rules </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiMAX and LTE next steps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lines start to blur </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3. Ever smaller Smaller cells </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New approaches to deployment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enabling new players eg Mindspeed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4. Spectrum fragmentation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A barrier to the LTE ecosystem </li></ul></ul><ul><li>5. Backhaul </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More of it, and more intelligent </li></ul></ul>Mindspeed Ticker: MSPD Price: $8.47 MCAP $241 MM EVAL $243MM Source: EOL 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    7. 7. The new order: Infrastructure <ul><li>Cisco gets into pole position </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Spans all approaches to mobile web </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ericsson , Huawei, and Alcatel in RAN </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Everyone else looks for niches or exit </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some progress at Nokia Siemens Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure chips – Freescale beats TI </li></ul><ul><li>Flagship operators – Vodafone , Telstra , DoCoMo , Verizon </li></ul><ul><li>The new network – Tellabs , Continuous , Mindspeed </li></ul>05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    8. 8. 5 Device Themes <ul><li>1. After a year in the wilderness, midrange is hot again </li></ul><ul><li>2. New device formats to support new models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tablets, media hubs etc </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The open retail model </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3. Android grows up </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From HTC Desire to Huawei </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4. Samsung shifts the goalposts </li></ul><ul><li>5. Coming soon: ‘human device interaction’ </li></ul>HTC: Desire ~ Google Nexus One 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    9. 9. Device players <ul><li>Big hitting handsets – Samsung Wave, HTC Desire </li></ul><ul><li>Nokia absent but all-present </li></ul><ul><li>Midrange boom – game of scale, Huawei and ZTE still knocking on the door </li></ul><ul><li>Motorola seeks to avoid Android pigeonhole </li></ul><ul><li>SEMC, Motorola, Acer – strong devices, uncertain outlook </li></ul><ul><li>No sign of Palm </li></ul><ul><li>Chip landscape – Marvell and Intel chase Qualcomm, WiMAX players seek LTE niche, MediaTek looms </li></ul>Samsung Wave 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    10. 10. 5 Software Themes <ul><li>1. The major operating systems updated </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MeeGo </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Windows Phone 7 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Symbian 3 and 4 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Android defending its place in the sun </li></ul><ul><li>3. LiMO creeping up on carriers’ coat tails </li></ul><ul><li>4. The browser and search wars </li></ul><ul><li>5. The survival of the semi-open OS - Bada </li></ul>Hmmm No mention of iPhone or RIM. Oh yes, Apple does not participate. But RIM does. --G 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    11. 11. Software <ul><li>Leaders under siege – Google, Opera </li></ul><ul><li>Android and ‘the China question’ </li></ul><ul><li>Nokia strategy clearer but still highly complex </li></ul><ul><li>Symbian and MS play catch-up, with different prognoses </li></ul><ul><li>The browser dilemma – WebKit’s mighty ambition vs Opera’s mobile efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Amazon shifts the store/content model </li></ul><ul><li>The mass market experience – Nokia, Myriad </li></ul>Re: Nokia, “ If you cannot write your idea on the back of my business card, you do not have an idea” David Belasco 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    12. 12. Wrap - Up <ul><li>Customer Experience: Carriers vs. the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>3G: “the beat goes on” vs. “4G: start up” </li></ul><ul><li>RAN is a commodity </li></ul><ul><li>Core and backhaul attract dollars </li></ul><ul><li>Nokia still confused </li></ul><ul><li>Semi-smart midrange handsets rebound </li></ul>05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research
    13. 13. 05/10/10 Copyright 2008, 2009, 2010 TownHall Investment Research QUESTIONS For Additional Information James Townsend [email_address] 516-922-2870

    ×