Cambio Climático Universidad Verde 2011

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Ponencia Universidad Verde 2011

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  • Fossil fuel CO2 emissions decreased by 1.3% in 2009, with a total of 8.4±0.5 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (30.8 Pg of CO2; 1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons). These emissions were second highest in human history, just below 2008 emissions, and 37% higher than in 1990 (Kyoto reference year). Coal is now the largest fossil-fuel source of CO2 emissions. About 92% of the growth in coal emissions for the period 2007-2009 resulted from increased coal use in China and India. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6%. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signaled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1. We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy.
  • Current emissions are tracking above the most intense fossil fuel emission scenario established by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios-SRES (2000), A1FI (A1 Fossil Fuel intensive); and moving rapidly away from low stabilization scenarios, eg, 450 ppm. Scenarios trends are averages across all models available for each scenario class. Since this publication, global fossil fuel emissions have been revised and used in Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS. Red dots indicate the revised and updated numbers for 2005 and 2006 respectively. When the IPCC-SRES scenarios where published the AIFI was considered an outrageous scenario which was there as a top end, and for almost 10 years we have been happy to use the B1 as a middle of the rate scenario for what it is most likely to happen. We have studied impacts, risk assesment and we have even developed policies with this scenario.
  • Here we see the typical saw-tooth pattern of temperature which marks the short interglacial (warm) periods followed por longer glacial periods. In every case, CO2 records and temperature records correlate. What will happen in our newly CO2-enriched climate, however, is anybody’s guess. Scientists have used computer models to show that temperatures will likely increase between 3 and 11 °F over the next 100 years. Following every peak in CO2, there is an immediate drop. This happened 10,000 years ago, but slowed once humans began agricultural activity. Now, the level of CO2 is skyrocketing and is expected to exceed 600 ppm por 2050!
  • Cambio Climático Universidad Verde 2011

    1. 2. 1999 km de diámetro 5140 billones de toneladas
    2. 3. Troposfera (9-18 km) 4000 billones de toneladas 80% masa atm osférica
    3. 5. Flujo de energía
    4. 6. 33ºC menos Sin efecto invernadero 19ºC bajo cero
    5. 8. CO 2 NO 2 CH 4 SF 6 CFC's CO 2 eq o CO 2 e
    6. 9. 533 ppt 533 ppt 0 CFC-12 44 ppb 314 ppb 270 ppb N2O 1,045 ppb 1,745 ppb 700 ppb CH4 110 ppm 390ppm 280 ppm CO2 Incremento desde 1750   Nivel actual   Nivel Preindustrial Gas
    7. 10. Origen Gases de Efecto Invernadero Fuente: IPCC 2007
    8. 11. Origen Gases de Efecto Invernadero Fuente: IPCC 2007
    9. 12. Emisiones Combustibles fósiles CO 2 Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010 2009 : Emisions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% 2000-2008 Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% Gt C= 3,67 Gt CO 2 CO 2 emisiones (Pg C año) CO 2 emissions (Pg CO 2 y -1 ) Growth rate 1990-1999 1 % per year Growth rate 2000-2009 2.5 % per year Time (y)
    10. 13. Emisiones Combustibles Fósiles: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update SRES (2000) crecimiento medio en % año -1 para 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observado 2000-2007 3.5% Fosil Fuel Emisiones (PgC/año) 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Observed Projected años
    11. 15. Límite burbuja UE en Protocolo de Kioto Emisiones en España de GEI
    12. 16. Emisiones España 2008
    13. 17. GEI, origen en España, 2008
    14. 18. Flujos de CO 2 Exportaciones From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). Year 2004
    15. 19. Top 20 CO 2 Emisores y Emisiones Per Capita 2009 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 CHINA USA INDIA RUSSIA JAPAN GERMANY IRAN SOUTH KOREA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA ITALY BRAZIL AUSTRALIA FRANCE (inl. Monaco) POLAND SPAIN 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Carbon Emisiones (tons x 1,000,000) Per Capita Emisiones (ton C person /año)
    16. 20. 25 Bangla Desh 6 China 2 España 1 EE.UU 2.47 kg 1.3 m3 10.69 kg 5.7 m3 27 kg 14 m3 66.60 kg 35,6 m3 Emisiones diarias comparadas
    17. 21. 800 600 400 200 0 CO 2 (ppmv)‏ Miles de años anteriores al actual 240 300 270 210 180 Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 Temp. Proxy Actual CO 2 concentracion (390 ppmv)‏ CO 2 concentracion dentro de 50 años sin restricciones en la quema de combustibles fósiles (600 ppmv)‏
    18. 22. 60-meses (5-años) y 132-meses (11-años) anomalías relativas al periodo 1951-1980 . Fuente: Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change.
    19. 24. 0.94 0.52 2001 0.97 0.54 2004 0.99 0.55 2007 1.01 0.56 2006 1.01 0.56 2009 1.04 0.58 2002 1.04 0.58 2003 1.08 0.60 1998 1.12 0.62 2005 1.12 0.62 2010 Anomalía ° F Anomalía ° C Global Top 10 Sobre la media del siglo XX Años más cálidos (enero-diciembre) *
    20. 26. Fuente: MIT 2009
    21. 27. 8.4 1.5 4.1 1.5 8.5 2007 8.7 GtC en 2008
    22. 28. Destino de emisiones antropogénicas CO 2 (2000-2008) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1.1 ± 0.7 PgC /año 4.1±0.1GtC/año Océanos 26% 2.3 ±0.4 GtC/año + 7.7 ± 0.5 GtC/año Atmósfera 47% E. terrestres 27% 2,4 GtC/año
    23. 30. 2011
    24. 34. El área de permafrost estacional en HN ha decrecido el 7% entre 1901 y 2002 Retroceso de los glaciares desde lo 1990s Glaciares y permafrost están retrocediendo
    25. 35. Junio 2007 Noviembre 2009
    26. 36. Subida del nivel del mar
    27. 37. Sheila Watt-Cloutier
    28. 39. Cambio de los patrones de lluvia
    29. 40. Ciclón Nargis Birmania May 2008 <ul><li>100.000 muertes. </li></ul><ul><li>Vientos de cerca de 200 kmh. </li></ul><ul><li>La marea y olas de 3,5 metros de altura inundaron el país. </li></ul><ul><li>5.000 km2 inundados. </li></ul><ul><li>2 a 3 millones de personas sin vivienda. </li></ul><ul><li>Zona endémica de malaria y dengue. </li></ul>
    30. 41. Índice de calor peligroso Días por año
    31. 50. http://flood.firetree.net +2 metros Andalucía
    32. 51. Conocemos el problema lo suficieente Tenemos la tecnología Podemos comicarnos para ponernos de acuerdo ¿Tenemos la voluntad?
    33. 53. Fuentes Renovables
    34. 57. Eficiencia del sistema eléctrico
    35. 58. Eficiencia Energética 100 W=2.5 W 20 W 800 horas 10.000h x 80W=800kWh = 0.75%
    36. 59. Ecohacker
    37. 60. Captura y almacenamiento
    38. 61. Centrales nucleares
    39. 62. Vehículos eléctricos
    40. 63. 25% superar 2ºC 1000 GtCO2 2000-50 Ya 360 en 10 años
    41. 66. Nunca dudes que un peque ño grupo de ciudadanos comprometidos puede cambiar al mundo; de hecho es la un i ca forma en que siempre sucede. Margaret Mead
    42. 67. Calentamientoglobalclima.org

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