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Decision Analysis and Resolution

It will help people to take decision and resolve problem in daily life

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Decision Analysis and Resolution

  1. 1. Applying Decision Analysis and Resolution Technique in Real World <ul><ul><li>Trainer : Mohammad Shahadat Hossain Chowdhury </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Date : 27 January 2009 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Duration : 3 hours </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Start Time : 10:00 AM Actual Time : 10:00 am </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>End time : 01:00 PM Actual Time : pm </li></ul></ul>Think DAR, Do DAR, Work DAR, Gossip DAR, Help DAR
  2. 2. Expectation ???
  3. 3. Agenda
  4. 4. Are You Ready for Something New?
  5. 5. Why do we need a DAR Process? <ul><li>“ Intelligent people, when assembled into an organization, will tend to gravitate toward collective stupidity.” Albrechts’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Dopeler Effect – </li></ul><ul><li>The tendency of stupid ideas to sound intelligent when they </li></ul><ul><li>come at you rapidly. </li></ul><ul><li>Example: “ Don’t worry, we can give </li></ul><ul><li>ERP solution within 2 days, 3 hours, </li></ul><ul><li>2 minutes, 3 second.” Note: Just assuming or guessing </li></ul>
  6. 6. ???????
  7. 7. Some of the instant Decision <ul><li>“ Let’s just put that app up on the web.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Yeah, we can do that in a few days.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ I’m going to send this work over to India – it will be </li></ul><ul><li>cheaper.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ We’ve decided to buy that new reporting package to meet the Ms. Parna’s training requirements within one hour”. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Should we go with Linux or Windows?” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Let’s let Mr. Zaman own the operating system – we’ll just license it”. </li></ul>
  8. 8. What will be Our approach? <ul><li>“We must choose … but choose wisely .” </li></ul>
  9. 9. Decision Analysis and Resolution? <ul><li>Definition: </li></ul><ul><li>Book Answer - The purpose of Decision Analysis and Resolution is to analyze possible decisions using a formal evaluation process that evaluates identified alternatives against established criteria </li></ul><ul><li>In other words – a process to make key decisions in your organization more objectively and wisely. </li></ul>
  10. 10. When should we use DAR? 6. Testing approaches 5. Technical Solutions 4. Process tailoring (including life cycle 3. Designs, platforms 2. Products, features (cost-benefit, build/buy) 1. Architectures Technical Decisions: 5. Career Selection , 4. Investment, opening bank account etc. 4. Outsource or not? Co source? In-source? Multi-source? 3. Choosing Friends 3. Evaluate risks on acquisitions, divestitures, investments, IP 2. Choosing Dress for Wedding, Invitation, party etc. 2. Budget Prioritizations 1. Marriage 1. Personnel – hires, promotions, transfers, layoffs Personal Decisions: Business Decisions
  11. 11. When should we use DAR? Cont… Business Development/ Marketing <ul><li>Grid Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Tree Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Paired Comparison Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cost and benefit analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Fish Bone Analysis (Problem analysis) </li></ul><ul><li>Pareto Analysis / 80-20 Rules (Prioritization) </li></ul><ul><li>Payment mode for decisions </li></ul><ul><li>If the project would be beneficial for future </li></ul><ul><li>Do we have enough resources? </li></ul><ul><li>technical and financial capabilities of organization </li></ul><ul><li>Total Project value </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance scope for project </li></ul><ul><li>Wining Probability </li></ul><ul><li>New Area </li></ul><ul><li>Other ( DAR maker discretion) </li></ul>CEO, CTO, Business Manager, VM <ul><li>Go / No Go decision for Projects/ Tenders </li></ul>Possible situation Applicable Area Technique Recommended (Any of the following) Criterion/Factors to be considered (Recommended) Responsibility Where to use
  12. 12. When should we use DAR? Cont… Business Development/ Marketing Proposal preparations <ul><li>Force Field Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Paired Comparison Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Grid Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Decision tree </li></ul><ul><li>Fish Bone Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Pareto Analysis / 80-20 Rules </li></ul><ul><li>Alternatives available </li></ul><ul><li>Scalability </li></ul><ul><li>Cost effectiveness </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance cost </li></ul><ul><li>Build time required </li></ul><ul><li>Familiarity on solution </li></ul><ul><li>Other ( DAR maker discretion) </li></ul>Business Manager, VM,CEO,CTO <ul><li>Proposal (Proposed Technologies selection) </li></ul>Possible situation Applicable Area Technique Recommended (Any of the following) Criterion/Factors to be considered (Recommended) Responsibility Where to use
  13. 13. When should we use DAR? Cont… Business Development 1. Grid Analysis 2. Cost Benefit Analysis <ul><li>Profit ratio </li></ul><ul><li>Work load sharing </li></ul><ul><li>learning scope </li></ul><ul><li>team work </li></ul>CEO CTO,PM <ul><li>Evaluate risks on acquisitions, Divestitures, Investments, Projects </li></ul>Business development/Marketing 1. Grid Analysis 2. SWOT Analysis 3.Fish Bone Analysis <ul><li>Region experience </li></ul><ul><li>Availability </li></ul><ul><li>Domain experience </li></ul><ul><li>Industry standard </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict issue </li></ul><ul><li>To realize if the partnership would be effective. </li></ul>MD, CEO, CTO, Business Manager, VM <ul><li>Partner evaluation or selection </li></ul>Business development/Marketing 1. SWOT Analysis 2.Fish Bone Analysis 3, 80-20 Rules 4. Time Matrix 5. Time series graph 6. Paired Comparison <ul><li>Revenue generate </li></ul><ul><li>Durability </li></ul><ul><li>Future scope </li></ul><ul><li>Business trend </li></ul>MD, CEO,BM <ul><li>New Business expand </li></ul>Possible situation Applicable Area Technique Recommended (Any Of the following) Criterion/Factors to be considered (Recommended) Responsibility Where to use
  14. 14. When should we use DAR? Cont… Training 1.Pareto Analysis 2.Force Field Analysis 3, Fish Bone Analysis 1. Quick Learner 2. Team worker 3. Innovative 4. Proactive DH, VM, Business Manager, HRM, <ul><li>Selection of Candidates for training </li></ul>Training 1. Pareto Analysis 2.Force Field Analysis 3. Time matrix 1.Required for organization 2. Within Budget 3. Required for dept. 4. Match with Business objective DH, VM, Business Manager, HRM, <ul><li>Training prioritization </li></ul>Requirement Stage 1.Pareto Analysis / 80- 20 Rules 2. Fishbone analysis 1. Easiness of Requirement Identification and deployment 2. Client interest PM, Analyst, Designer, programmer <ul><li>Prioritize Requirements </li></ul>Project Management / Requirement stage <ul><li>Grid Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Tree Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Fish Bone Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Pareto Analysis / 80-20 Rules </li></ul><ul><li>Alternatives available </li></ul><ul><li>Scalability </li></ul><ul><li>Cost effectiveness </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance cost </li></ul><ul><li>Build time required </li></ul><ul><li>Familiarity on Design or easiness </li></ul>PM, Analyst ,Designer, programmer <ul><ul><li>Architectures/design </li></ul></ul>Applicable Area Technique Recommended (Any Of the following) Criterion/Factors to be considered Responsibility Where to use
  15. 15. DAR Execution Criteria <ul><li>Before execute the process … we need to have some rules on when to invoke DAR within our projects or the organization. </li></ul><ul><li>Sample Criteria might include: </li></ul><ul><li>Business or technology decisions involving greater than a specific dollar amount </li></ul><ul><li>Technical and process life cycle options for any non trivial new development project </li></ul><ul><li>Selection from among risk handling options for high Impact, high probability risks </li></ul><ul><li>6. Any capital purchase </li></ul>
  16. 16. Basic Decision Making Approaches <ul><li>Individual commitment needed </li></ul><ul><li>Synergy </li></ul><ul><li>Coordination required </li></ul><ul><li>Interdependence </li></ul><ul><li>Takes time </li></ul><ul><li>Requires skills </li></ul>Consensus: all members participate in a decision that all will support <ul><li>Routine issues </li></ul><ul><li>Very large team </li></ul><ul><li>Individual commitment not needed </li></ul><ul><li>Win-lose situation </li></ul><ul><li>Apathy or sabotage </li></ul>Democratic: Team members vote and majority rules <ul><li>Time deadline </li></ul><ul><li>Stalemate </li></ul><ul><li>Serious conflict </li></ul><ul><li>Stifles initiative </li></ul><ul><li>Discourages </li></ul><ul><li>Critical thinking </li></ul>Consultative: Leader gets ideas from members individually or in a meeting ,then decides <ul><li>Emergency situation </li></ul><ul><li>Confidential information involved </li></ul><ul><li>Discourages involvement </li></ul><ul><li>Fosters dependence </li></ul>Directive : Team leader decides alone and pronounces the decision Best Application Primary Dangers Approaches
  17. 17. Daft the Decision Statement <ul><li>More features, better ease- of-use or lower cost ? </li></ul><ul><li>Minimize technology risk or avoid this risk? </li></ul><ul><li>What server solution should we use? </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce cost now or over several years? </li></ul><ul><li>Should we expand our current internal network or go wireless? </li></ul><ul><li>Maintain market share or grow market share? </li></ul><ul><li>Should we move into this new market area? </li></ul>What goal are we trying to achieve? (Examples) On what situation do we need to take an action? (Examples)
  18. 18. Basic DAR Process
  19. 19. Basic DAR Process (Cont…)
  20. 20. Basic DAR Process (Cont…)
  21. 21. Basic DAR Process (Cont…)
  22. 22. Making the Decision Making “ When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” - Yogi Berra
  23. 23. Decision Making Tools and Techniques • Decision Trees • Weighted Tables • Six Thinking Hats • Delphi Technique (Expert Opinions) • Grid Analysis • Force Field Analysis • Pareto Analysis[80-20] • Nominal Group • Cost/Benefit Analysis Ranking Technique • Matched Pairs • One Half Plus One • Brainstorming • Weighted Multi voting • Fish Bone Analysis • PMI (Recommended for Problem solving) • Decision Table • Check sheet • ROI Analysis • SWOT / TOWS Analysis • NPV/ IRR/ ARR
  24. 24. Tutorial and Demo of DAR Technique <ul><li>GRID Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Fish Bone Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Tree </li></ul><ul><li>Brain Storming </li></ul><ul><li>Cost and Benefit Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Force Field Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>PMI </li></ul><ul><li>Paired Comparison </li></ul><ul><li>Six Thinking Hat </li></ul><ul><li>Pareto Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Multi voting </li></ul>
  25. 25. Classify the Impact and objectives DEMO 1. Grid Analysis: Required – what is absolutely critical to the success of the decision and can be measured? (example) Cost = $US 75K or less Delivery = 30 April or sooner Desired (not all objectives are required) (example) 2 FTEs or less needed for the install and initial support High availability system with fault tolerance/redundancy Compatible with existing HW Hot swappable components 24 X 6, one hour service support Annual maintenance less than $15K
  26. 26. Lessons Learned 1. People are generally impatient in decision making 2. Using a formal decision making process is not a natural act 3. Make sure you have criteria in place for when to invoke DAR 4. Just getting started is half the battle 5. Implementing is easy – but institutionalizing takes time (Just DAR It!!!)
  27. 27. Go… . DAR to be Different! “ There's a difference between knowing the path, and walking the path.” Morpheus, The Matrix (1999) “ I am only doing what I can’t do, so that I may learn to do it”. Picasso “ Never be afraid to try something new. Remember that a lone amateur built the Ark. A large group of professionals built the Titanic.” Dave Barry For More Information Go to QMS Knowledge Base for decision making tools technique documents (brainstorming, decision trees, Delphi, cost-benefit analysis, etc.) and their descriptions. OR [email_address] , Cell: 01712005040 “ There are two types of knowledge. One is knowing a thing, the other is knowing where to find it.” Samuel Johnson
  28. 28. Q&A Thank You