Missouri Poll Slides (2014)

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Missouri Poll Slides (2014)

  1. 1. School Bell Signals In Missouri New Polling on K-12 Education & School Choice Expanded Opportunities Discussion April 25, 2014 Paul DiPerna paul@edchoice.org
  2. 2. About the Friedman Foundation edchoice.org • Established in 1996 by Milton & Rose Friedman • 501(c)(3) / Nonpartisan / Nonprofit • Based Indianapolis, IN • Activities and Services in 30+ states • What do we do? Outreach ~ Education Research ~ Data Analysis Advocacy ~ Marketing
  3. 3. Survey Profile Data Collection: Braun Research, Inc. (BRI) Interview Dates: February 27 to March 11, 2014 Interview Method: Live Telephone | 70% landline, 30% cell phone Interview Length: 14 minutes (average) Sample Frame: Registered Voters Sampling Method: Dual Frame; Probability Sampling; RDD Population Samples: MISSOURI = 660 St. Louis Metro = 227 Kansas City Metro (including oversample) = 165 Margins of Error: MISSOURI = ± 4.0 percentage points St. Louis Metro = ± 6.5 percentage points Kansas City Metro = ± 7.6 percentage points Response Rates: Landline (LL) = 9.7% Cell Phone = 8.3% Weighting? Yes (Landline/Cell, Age, Race, Ethnicity, Gender, Region) Oversampling? Yes (Kansas City Metro)
  4. 4. Observing the following metrics… ~ Levels ~ Margins (i.e. differences, gaps) ~ Intensities (strong positive – strong negative) ~ Min vs. Max
  5. 5. Topics • Direction of K-12 education • Rating the state’s public school system • Grade local schools (public, private, charter) • Preferred school type, and why • Tax-credit scholarships • Interdistrict student transfers
  6. 6. Missouri’s K-12 Profile Average State Rank on NAEP 28 High School Graduation Rate 83.7% # Regular Public School Students 900,842 # Charter School Students 17,868 # Private School Students 93,066 # Home School Students n/a % Regular Public School Students 89.0% % Charter School Students 1.8% % Private School Students 9.2% # School Districts 522 # Regular Public Schools 2,451 # Charter Schools 38 # Private Schools 565 $ Revenue Per Student $11,069 $ “Total” Per Student Spending $10,963 $ “Current” Per Student Spending $9,461 $ “Instructional” Per Student Spending $5,669
  7. 7. What do voters say about the state of K-12 education in Missouri?
  8. 8. How do voters grade schools in their communities? What type of school is first preference?
  9. 9. BETTER EDUCATION / QUALITY 71 INDIVIDUAL ATTENTION / ONE-ON-ONE 62 ACADEMICS / CURRICULUM 59 BETTER TEACHERS / TEACHERS / TEACHING 57 SOCIALIZATION / PEERS / OTHER KIDS 48 CLASS SIZE / STUDENT-TEACHER RATIO 35 DIVERSITY / VARIETY 32 ENVIRONMENT / CULTURE / COMMUNITY 32 SAFETY / LESS DRUGS, VIOLENCE, BULLYING 27 DISCIPLINE / STRUCTURE 26 Q8. What is the most important characteristic or attribute that would cause you to choose a [INSERT SCHOOL TYPE FROM PREVIOUS QUESTION] for your child? Please use one word, or a very short phrase. Top 10 | Specific impressions offered by respondents in the statewide sample. Numbers represent counts (n), not percentages.
  10. 10. What do voters say about tax-credit scholarships?
  11. 11. Favor Oppose Margin Intensity % % N= ALL RESPONDENTS 67 27 + 40 + 16 660 St. Louis Metro 64 32 + 32 + 8 227 Kansas City Metro 65 29 + 36 + 23 165 School Parent 71 25 + 46 + 21 210 Non-Schooler 66 29 + 37 + 13 437 COMMUNITY Urban 64 33 + 31 + 14 120 Suburban 66 30 + 36 + 15 271 Small Town 76 20 + 56 + 19 123 Rural 63 25 + 38 + 13 136 PARTY ID Democrat 63 32 + 31 + 8 181 Republican 76 19 + 57 + 25 177 Independent 64 31 + 33 + 14 194 AGE GROUP 18 to 34 80 17 + 63 + 21 151 35 to 54 66 28 + 38 + 18 240 55 & Over 58 35 + 23 + 17 251 HOUSEHOLD INCOME Under $40,000 70 21 + 49 + 15 239 $40,000 to $79,999 67 29 + 38 + 18 233 $80,000 & Over 62 35 + 27 + 6 133 RACE/ETHNICITY Black 70 26 + 44 + 27 49 Hispanic 80 20 + 60 + 36 16 White 66 28 + 38 + 12 546
  12. 12. What do voters say about interdistrict student transfers?
  13. 13. Levels of Support 67% Tax-Credit Scholarships 64% Charter Schools 62% Vouchers 60% ESAs 60% Interdistrict Student Transfers Margins (favor vs. oppose) +40 Charter Schools +40 Tax-Credit Scholarships +30 Interdistrict Student Transfers +30 Vouchers +28 ESAs
  14. 14. Takeaways • Missourians are negative about the quality and direction of K-12 education in the state • Major disconnect between survey preferences and actual school enrollment patterns • Private schools are viewed very positively • Broad support for school choice policies • Right now voters are most likely to support tax- credit scholarships and charter schools
  15. 15. Thank You Missouri K-12 & School Choice Survey to be publicly released on May 6 Full report and supplemental files will be available on edchoice.org and showmeinstitute.org Paul DiPerna paul@edchoice.org

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