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Giornalismo, informazione e opinione pubblica
    nell’epoca dei new media (Paolo Costa)


           3a lezione (9/03/09)...
Pubblicità: quali parametri di misura


• Esposizione: impression e reach
• Modelli online: graphical ads, search ads (Goo...
Ricavi adv: stampa + online USA

Fatturato pubblicitario della stampa quotidiana e periodica, inclusi annunci
 a pagamento...
Ricavi adv: stampa periodica USA


       Numero di pagine adv                                         Fatturato adv, 2007...
La pubblicità online non compensa il calo


• Nel 2008 anche i ricavi da online adv sono diminuiti
     – 3,15 miliardi US...
La pubblicità online non compensa il calo
 Dinamica degli investimenti pubblicitari in USA, per mezzo (2007-2008)

       ...
Quanto vale l’online adv nel mondo

               Mercato globale dell’online advertising (USD, mln)




   Fonte: J.P. M...
Prezzi dell’online advertising: graphical ads

CPM medio negli Stati Uniti per graphical ads (confronto 2007-2008, USD)


...
Prezzi dell’online advertising: search ads

        Costo medio nel mondo per search ads (serie 2003-2011, USD)




   Fon...
NYT: il problema del 10%



• La carta assicura il 10% dell’audience totale, l’online
  assicura il 10% dei ricavi pubblic...
Il problema dei costi


• Stampare il NYT costa due volte di più che regalare un
  Kindle a ogni abbonato (fonte: NYT)
   ...
Un modello di business senza pubblicità?


• Il dibattito è aperto:
     – Ethan Zuckerman
     – Doc Searls
     – Andrei...
Italia, bassi investimenti adv pro capite
    Investimento pubblicitario pro-capite su mezzi classici nel 2007 (€)

      ...
L’anomalia italiana: TV mangia tutto
Distribuzione degli investimenti pubblicitari nei media in Italia 1987-2007 (%)




F...
L’anomalia italiana: TV mangia tutto

             Distribuzione degli investimenti pubblicitari nei media
               ...
Investimenti adv in Italia: previsioni 2009

             Previsione sulle variazioni % tendenziali degli investimenti
   ...
Declino della pubblicità? Il caso della TV


• Al 2012 i ricavi da pagamento diretto degli utenti (pay-tv)
  sorpasseranno...
I ricavi degli editori TV in Italia

   Ripartizione dei ricavi del mercato televisivo in Italia per tipologia (%)


     ...
Mediaset: meno pubblicità, più pay TV

             Ricavi da pubblicità TV commerciale e da TV a pagamento
              ...
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Lettori, ricavi, credibilità. I giornali sono in crisi? (2a parte)

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Una analisi dei dati sull'evoluzione dell'uso dei mezzi di informazione in USA e in Italia

Published in: Education, Technology, Business
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Lettori, ricavi, credibilità. I giornali sono in crisi? (2a parte)

  1. 1. Giornalismo, informazione e opinione pubblica nell’epoca dei new media (Paolo Costa) 3a lezione (9/03/09) Lettori, ricavi, credibilità. I giornali sono in crisi? (seconda parte) Corso: Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A - a.a. 2008-09
  2. 2. Pubblicità: quali parametri di misura • Esposizione: impression e reach • Modelli online: graphical ads, search ads (Google AdWords, Yahoo! Search Marketing, Microsoft adCenter) • Efficacia: tasso di conversione • Costo: CPI/CPM • Costo per conversione: CPC, CPV, CPA CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 2 paolocosta.net
  3. 3. Ricavi adv: stampa + online USA Fatturato pubblicitario della stampa quotidiana e periodica, inclusi annunci a pagamento e online adv (USD, mld) e differenza su anno precedente (%) Fonte: eMarketer, dicembre 2008 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 3 paolocosta.net
  4. 4. Ricavi adv: stampa periodica USA Numero di pagine adv Fatturato adv, 2007 vendute, 2007 e 2008 e 2008 (USD, mld) 27,6 25,5 -7,6 % 256.963,82 226.801,82 -11,7 % Sunday Sunday Magazines Magazines Magazines Magazines 2007 2008 2007 2008 Fonte: Publishers Information Bureau (PIB), gennaio 2009 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 4 paolocosta.net
  5. 5. La pubblicità online non compensa il calo • Nel 2008 anche i ricavi da online adv sono diminuiti – 3,15 miliardi USD (- 0,4% rispetto al 2007) – Calo più marcato in Q4 (-2,9% rispetto a Q4 2007) • Dal 2007 al 2008 sono crollate le tariffe degli annunci pubblicitari online (CPM) • È un fenomeno congiunturale, o stiamo scoprendo che il modello dell’informazione online “adv. based” non è sostenibile? CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 5 paolocosta.net
  6. 6. La pubblicità online non compensa il calo Dinamica degli investimenti pubblicitari in USA, per mezzo (2007-2008) SETTORE DIFFERENZA TELEVISION MEDIA -0.40% · Network TV -2.40% · Cable TV 3.10% · Spot TV -4.40% · Syndication - National 10.20% · Spanish Language TV -0.10% MAGAZINE MEDIA -1.80% · Consumer Magazines -1.80% · B-to-B Magazines -5.90% · Local Magazines -2.80% · Sunday Magazines 4.80% · Spanish Language Magazines 7.10% NEWSPAPER MEDIA -7.40% · Local Newspapers -7.10% · National Newspapers -9.50% · Spanish Language Newspapers -11.00% INTERNET (Display Advertising Only) 13.00% RADIO MEDIA -6.50% · Network Radio 3.40% · National Spot Radio -7.40% · Local Radio -7.50% OUTDOOR 1.80% TOTAL -1.60% CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 6 paolocosta.net
  7. 7. Quanto vale l’online adv nel mondo Mercato globale dell’online advertising (USD, mln) Fonte: J.P. Morgan, comScore, Nielsen//NetRatings, IDC, IWS CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 7 paolocosta.net
  8. 8. Prezzi dell’online advertising: graphical ads CPM medio negli Stati Uniti per graphical ads (confronto 2007-2008, USD) 0,50 0,37 - 48% 0,34 0,27 0,26 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Fonte: PubMatic, “AdPrice Index”, gennaio 2009 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 8 paolocosta.net
  9. 9. Prezzi dell’online advertising: search ads Costo medio nel mondo per search ads (serie 2003-2011, USD) Fonte: J.P. Morgan, comScore, Nielsen//NetRatings, IDC, IWS CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 9 paolocosta.net
  10. 10. NYT: il problema del 10% • La carta assicura il 10% dell’audience totale, l’online assicura il 10% dei ricavi pubblicitari totali – Utenti unici (media 12 mesi): 13.732.000 – Diffusione (feriale): 1.120. 420 – Diffusione (domenica): 1.627.062 – Ricavi adv totali (News Media Group, USD): 483.594.000 – Ricavi online adv (News Media Group, USD): 51.000.000 • I prezzi offline sono molto più alti rispetto all’online • Ma le tariffe offline hanno a che fare più con i ricavi di cui il giornale ha bisogno, o con il reale valore venduto? CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 10 paolocosta.net
  11. 11. Il problema dei costi • Stampare il NYT costa due volte di più che regalare un Kindle a ogni abbonato (fonte: NYT) – 644 milioni di dollari all’anno di costi industriali – 1 milione di lettori (1,4 la domenica) – 20 milioni di online unique visitors – 830 mila abbonati pluriennali – 359 dollari per Kinlde – “End Times” (the Atlantic) CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 11 paolocosta.net
  12. 12. Un modello di business senza pubblicità? • Il dibattito è aperto: – Ethan Zuckerman – Doc Searls – Andreina Mandelli • Il giornalismo di tutti i tipi deve sottostare a regole di produzione delle news che ne garantiscano la qualità • Quali nuove forme di gatekeeping e costruzione delle news, che ne potenzino la qualità ma anche la capacità di governare la complessità informativa di oggi • un modello di business per la news industry senza i flussi di reddito pubblicitari può stare in piedi? CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 12 paolocosta.net
  13. 13. Italia, bassi investimenti adv pro capite Investimento pubblicitario pro-capite su mezzi classici nel 2007 (€) 472,70 390,50 199,80 181,92 174,96 153,66 USA Regno Unito Germania Francia Spagna Italia Fonte: elaborazioni IEM su dati NMR, UPA, WARC, IREP/France Pub, Infoadex, ZAW, IAB Europe CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 13 paolocosta.net
  14. 14. L’anomalia italiana: TV mangia tutto Distribuzione degli investimenti pubblicitari nei media in Italia 1987-2007 (%) Fonte: IEM 2008 su Nielsen CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 14 paolocosta.net
  15. 15. L’anomalia italiana: TV mangia tutto Distribuzione degli investimenti pubblicitari nei media in Italia nel 2008 (mln € e variazioni % tendenziali) Fonte: Nielsen 2009 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 15 paolocosta.net
  16. 16. Investimenti adv in Italia: previsioni 2009 Previsione sulle variazioni % tendenziali degli investimenti pubblicitari nei media in Italia nell’anno corrente Outdoor Radio Televisione Periodici Cinema Quotidiani Internet Fonte: Nielsen e Zemithoptimedia 2009 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 16 paolocosta.net
  17. 17. Declino della pubblicità? Il caso della TV • Al 2012 i ricavi da pagamento diretto degli utenti (pay-tv) sorpasseranno in Italia quelli da inserzioni pubblicitarie • I ricavi derivanti da offerte a pagamento (abbonamenti e servizi PPV / VoD) cresceranno a un tasso medio annuo del 9,8% fino a raggiungere i 3,8 miliardi di euro al 2012 • Il 50% della popolazione acquisterà servizi pay-tv – Il satellite dominerà il mercato, seguito dalle offerte su DTT che dovrebbero raggiungere 4,5 milioni di utenti alla fine del 2012 – Per la IPTV per le offerte televisive via internet-web non sembrano esserci prospettive di decollo rapido Fonte: eMedia Institute, luglio 2008 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 17 paolocosta.net
  18. 18. I ricavi degli editori TV in Italia Ripartizione dei ricavi del mercato televisivo in Italia per tipologia (%) 2007 2012 Da canone e finanziamento 16% pubblico 22% 41% Da pagamento 47% diretto degli utenti 31% 43% Da inserzioni commerciali Fonte: eMedia Institute, luglio 2008 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 18 paolocosta.net
  19. 19. Mediaset: meno pubblicità, più pay TV Ricavi da pubblicità TV commerciale e da TV a pagamento (mln € e variazione % rispetto all’anno precedente) Fonte: elaborazione Corriere Economia su dati di bilancio Mediaset e stime Equita Sim, 2009 CIM | Comunicazione Digitale e Multimediale A 12/03/2009 19 paolocosta.net

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