The crisis 101 (US economy 2008) - put simple serie

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"The crisis 101. Put simple" describes what is happening and what to await from current credit crisis. It is brought in simple and visual terms. Essentials to understand crisis mechanics, potentials and required actions.

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  • nice presentation, what do you think about see the crisis as an opportunity? http://www.ellibrepensador.com/2010/04/08/cesar-alierta-telefonica-es-el-aliado-ideal-para-el-nuevo-mundo-digital/
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  • thank you for the information:)
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  • How it all started see animation: http://vimeo.com/3261363
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  • @ contrarian2day

    well, Randy, I like your effort. Don't think I am a cynic, but you haven't given exact answers. I've seen merely opinions with different scenarios. There is nither quantitative valuation nor probabilistic sustainability analysis. What if one of the links in your chain doesn't occur? What if it occurs but not on an excessive scale?

    For example, I don't think the gold reserves in private hands have to be suggested. The role of gold has diminished in the global economy. Gold makes sense if at hand in direct possession. But the logistics costs for the gold exchange economy are high. Buying in-kind gold certificates is worse than having paper money at hand. Historically, everybody who bought gold at high during any crisis since 1900 has immediately lost 30% to 50% depending on period having it in the portfolio. The only case for buying gold now is if the global economy will fall apart. The respective probability is extremely low. IMHO it is better to invest in working actives whatever it is at a given time.

    @ vozome and guest3a6eb0, fogpotion

    Thanks for your encouragement and feedback.

    Vozome, I am not risking to give the analysis you've mentioned out. In a sense, the situation -we are in- is unique. The tools that governments have used earlier are not exact fit any more. Every former crisis has been on the premise of real economy growth. The growth was based on an extensive use of the economic factors like labor, resources, capital. The governments had just to remove blocks from the road of the growth.

    It is different today. The resources are noticeable in decline since 198x. The labor has become recently a factor, which is not suitable for a limitless intensification. See the frame idea in : http://www.slideshare.net/pbycall/civilization-101-the-economy-and-development-at-the-begining-of-the-21th-century-put-simple-serie-presentation/ IMHO, the bubbles we have had are indicators that entities try to keep up with the growth by exploiting the only available capital factor. But nobody knows yet how to do it right. It is not the real growth path any more. Governments have to find out -first- how to install blocks on the road of decline. Second, they may need to educate public. New ways for creation of sustainable values have to be established.
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  • Well done, but what now for the US Economy? Answers here: US Economic Outlook 2008-11+
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