![[object Object],Permanent Whitewater](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mllstaffday-091111201826-phpapp02/75/experience-the-future-11-2048.jpg?cb=1668920389)
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Experience the Future
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Keynote for Mount Laurel Library | Willingboro Library Joint Staff Day, Nov 11, 2009
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Experience the Future
- 1. Experience the Future
- 2. Nature of Change Current Trends Customer Experience TOPICS
- 3. The Nature of Change
- 4. Exponential Pace of Change SMS, Twitter, Facebook, RSS < 2 years Iphone 2 years ago Ubiquitous Wireless 4 years ago Ipod 7 years ago WWW and Cell phones 15 years Home computers 25 years Satellites / Air Travel 50 years Automobiles 100 years Printing press with movable type; rifle 500 years wheel and axle; sail 5,000 years bow & arrow 50,000 yrs control of fire 500,000 yrs lever, wedge 1.5 mill yrs
- 5. ANNA Esther “ The first 16 years of Anna’s life were virtually indistinguishable from Esther’s life. They both lived in makeshift house, with a dirt floor and no plumbing. Esther’s life was the same as her mother’s and her mother’s mother’s, going back 400 years…”
- 6. Israel (my grandad) Anna
- 7. Pace of Change D Stats from Pew Internet & American Life Project 62% 0% Wireless Internet 82% 50% Own a cell phone 57% 5% Broadband at home 75% 46% Use Internet (adult) 2009 2000
- 8. The Future is Now “ Is the speed of light not fast enough for you” -Louis CK
- 9. Unfreeze | Refreeze www.flickr.com/photos/circulating/3251962169
- 10. Permanent Whitewater http://www.flickr.com/photos/nukeit1/244167779/
- 12. Permanent BETA http://www.flickr.com/photos/kl/3238847578/
- 13. Permanent BETA www.flickr.com/photos/kenstein/2948639488 REQUIRES Play Adaptability Trend Watching Continual Learning
- 14. TRENDS What (else) is going on out there?
- 19. Roku screenshot
- 21. In October, 2009 one out of every five new apps launching in the iPhone was a book . Trend: Digital/Portable
- 22. Trend: Digital/Portable Photo by Peter Bromberg
- 24. http://vark.com/
- 33. <FACEBOOK> Over 300 million active users </FACEBOOK>
- 34. <FACEBOOK> 50% of active users log on to Facebook every day </FACEBOOK>
- 35. <FACEBOOK> Ages 35-54 is fastest growing demographic </FACEBOOK>
- 36. <FACEBOOK> 65 million users access FB through their mobile device </FACEBOOK>
- 37. <FACEBOOK> Mobile users are 50% more active than non-mobile users </FACEBOOK>
- 38. <FACEBOOK> 300% growth (40 120 million) in unique visitors (8/08 – 8/09) </FACEBOOK>
- 41. User Experience: Engagement From. Jesse James Garrett | The State Of User Experience, http://vimeo.com/6952223 Perception (senses) Action (body) Cognition (mind) Emotion (heart) External External Internal Internal
- 42. User Experience: Engagement
- 44. Ask customers what they want (but don’t stop there) Henry Ford said that if he had asked people how they wanted to improve their transportation they would have said faster horses. http://www.flickr.com/photos/danshouse/163331027/
- 45. discussion
- 46. thank you !
Editor's Notes
- Hello, it’s wonderful to be here to share your staff day with you. Thank yous You have a Fascinating theme for the day: “Experience the Future” So I’d like to talk to you about a few things this morning, weaving in some ideas about… {click}
- The nature of Change… If it seems like everything is changing faster and faster, well, there’s a reason for that. So we’ll look at change and see if we can make sense of what it means for libraries Related to change, we’ll take a look around us and try to determine some Current Trends . In other words, let’s look at specifically WHAT is changing. And what we might be able to conclude (or guess) about what kind of future these trends point to. Specifically we’ll look at the role and value of certain technologies , and what the mean for the present and future of libraries In the end of course, the future is unknowable, but I believe that if we pay attention to what’s happening around us we can make good guesses. For the more scientifically oriented, I’ll say we can construct good hypothesis, and test them. Lastly, I want to look at Customer Experience. What experience are we offering library customers? Can understanding the idea of customer experience help guide our choices and help “future-proof” us? Spoiler alert: I think the answer is yes. Focusing on customer experience can help future-proof us. Whereas we have to guess about what the future holds, data on customer experience is pretty solid, and easily accessible. In fact, all of you in this room are customers, and you have good and bad experiences every day. (ask them who can think of a good customer experience they’ve had? Who can think of a bad one? See? A room full of customer experience experts. We’ll come back to that. Of course the other solid data you have is your actual customers who can simply tell you about what they are experiencing, and what they’d like to experience. (point out that people like to talk about themselves.) Technology also comes into play here, because use of technologies by our customers are affecting their experiences in other aspects of their lives, and therefore affecting their needs and expectations vis-à-vis the library.
- So let’s start by looking a little bit at the nature of change. [click]
- Here is a chart that demonstrates the pace of change over the last 1.5 million years. You can see that the amount of time between major shifts is being continually compacted. (quickly review)
- To put this in perspective… This means that great great aunt Anna’s life was virtually indistinguishable from her mother Esther’s life. They both lived in a make shift house , with a dirt floor, a wood burning oven, and no plumbing. The first 16 years of my Anna’s life were the same as Esther’s
- In 1921 she left Moldavia for America and the next 70+ years of her life saw: Automobiles, Indoor plumbing, Telephones, Heart surgery, Air travel, Satellites in orbit Space travel, a moon landing, Television, Microwaves, Portable radios and tape players In other words, Anna saw more significant change in her life than her ancestors saw in the 500 years previous. To contrast, my 13 year old nephew has never known a world without: Internet, 156 HD channels, Invisible braces, DVDs, Cell phones, Text Messaging, Electric guitars, [click]
- Here’s a chart that shows the significant changes that have impacted society just in the last 9 years . 2000 2009 Use Internet (adult) 46% 75% Broadband at home 5% 57% Own a cell phone 50% 82% Wireless Internet 0% 62% You know, they even have wireless Internet on planes now? [click]
- In October 2008, the comedian Louis CK was on the Conan O’Brien Show and he shared some observations about technological change and how our expectations rapidly shift in light of new technologies. Lets watch an excerpt. SHOW VIDEO (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1CZTLk-Gk) Funny right, but he captures something there, about how customers expectations shift very quickly when they are exposed to new technologies that make their life easier—or at least technologies that they value. Back when we started QandANJ.org in late 2001 and I started going around doing presentations, I would ask, “how many of you have been on the internet in the last 24 hours.” In the beginning I’d see 10-25% of hands go up. Each year, I’d see more and more hands go up. And now when I ask that question (ask it) . I inevitably see 100% How many of you have texted w/I the last 24 hours? Been on a social network? In a few years, how many hands will we see? The fact is, that technology doesn’t just expand what’s possible, it shifts our expectations and the expectations of our customers. Which means we have to be continually evaluating and shifting our role as librarians to respond to the shifting needs and expectation of those that we serve. But we’re getting a little bit ahead of ourselves… Let’s finish this discussion on the pace of change [click]
- Up until recently, there was an accepted model of how change happens in society and organizations: The Freeze,Unfreeze,Re-freeze model , This model suggests that: Our structures, our organizations , and therefore our experiences remain fairly stable (or frozen) for long periods of time Some fundamental change occurs, and for a period of time, things unfreeze. We all get used to the change, it’s ramifications play out, and we settle into the new normal. We refreeze. This model makes sense when we apply it historically, but over the last 100 years, the periods between each change have gotten smaller and smaller, to the point where it seems we don’t even get to the refreeze point. With regard to change we are now more in a state of continual fluidity . Peter Vaill, a Professor of Mgmt at Antioch Univ . observed this phenomena and suggested a new model to help us understand change . [click]
- We are now in what Peter Vaill and other change mgmt experts call: Permanent whitewater. Whitewater suggests a number of things It suggests a fast-pace ; It suggests that the situation changes by the second It suggests that we need to vigilant, aware and responsive moment by moment It also suggests that we can have a general sense of shape of the river—the direction of current — Maybe know where the really big rocks are . We can’t control the ride, but we can influence it . Here’s one recent example of what Permanent whitewater looks like : [CLICK]
- Forget planning out years, or months… it can be tricky just to plan out a few weeks! So how is this pace of change how we roll out new services QUESTION: HOW HAVE LIBRARIES ROLLED OUT NEW SERVICES IN THE PAST? WHAT KIND OF PLANNING AND TESTING? [CLICK]
- Lot’s of websites and services are cycling through major changes much faster than they’ve ever done before. We are now in permanent beta It is rolled out before it is “ready” and then very responsive, continually evolving to better meet the customer’s needs (have you noticed this with Gmail?) So what does that mean for us? What are the implications of Permanent Whitewater and Permanent Beta? Peter Vaill said, &quot;no number of anticipatory mechanisms can forestall the next surprising, novel wave.&quot; So what are the implications? [CLICK]
- I see a few big over-riding implications: The ever increasing importance of adaptability. Since we don’t know what’s coming, and we can’t control it, we better be able to adjust to it; to ride it the wave. Importance of Trend Watching: We need to pay even more attention to what’s happening outside our profession; not just to be aware of the technological changes themselves, but aware of how these changes are rippling through and affecting society . How they are affecting our customer’s expectations. What does it mean when everyone has a cell phone, and can instantly call or text anyone they know? What does it mean when I can pay bills automatically online, or have netflix send me what I want, when I want it. And I can keep it for as long as I want? And in Vaill’s view it also requires above all else for us to be in a state of continual learning . Related to the above, and perhaps encompassing all of them, I would add the importance of valuing play/experimentation Famously, Google offers their engineers “Innovation Time Off”, encouraged to spend 20% of their work time on whatever interests them. [CLICK]
- So we’ve touched briefly on some of the trends, let’s look a little more deeply.
- I’d like to recommend trendwatching.com as a great way to keep up with important trends with some analysis of they mean… You can sign up for free email notifications of their trend briefings. (This month’s nowisim, talks about consumers desire for instant gratification.)
- Run through each and ask each of them what they think the ramifications might be. Faster Processing (computers) Faster Web (quicker streaming downloads) Mobile everything. SMS/Text Convergence of TV, Radio, Web
- Example of what businesses are starting to do with text Instantly (notice that word…) send gifts through text message. This is from Springwise: Springwise and its network of 8,000 spotters scan the globe for smart new business ideas, delivering instant inspiration to entrepreneurial minds. Time to start the next big thing! Free weekly newsletter
- Convergence of web, tv This is clicker, which tells you what tv shows are online for free, and where. Kind of like TV guide Bobbi just canceled her tivo AND her cable
- Roku Box for 79 bucks that streams netflix and amazon right to your tv. What are the ramifications of our DVD collections????
- Looking more specifically at information trends… Digital/Portable (content not containers) Shared (people on facebook/twitter). Controling who sees what… Social (bookmarks, Lifestreaming, netflix queues, amazon wishlists) Collaborative (Gaming, World of Warcraft; Millenials) Remixed (API’s. Mashups….)
- In October, 2009 one out of every five new apps launching in the iPhone has been a book . Reading’s not dead… So how are some possible choices for us if we know that ebooks use is on the rise?
- Here’s one possible response. I tool this photo at Words bookstore in Asbury Park this weekend. For the record, I don’t think this is strategy that is likely to pay off in the long term. Reminds me of a line from an Ani Di Franco song, “They keep banging their fists on reality, hoping it will break.” We move on…
- Information Paths Pushing: Like the springwise and trendwatching; google alerts Aggregating Like the springwise and trendwatching; google alerts Customizing Filtering Social-ing Let’s look at some examples
- Aardvark: provides specific recommendations. Its advice is always current, too, obtained on the fly from those we trust, like friends, but whose collective expertise far exceeds that of the relatively few people we happen to know personally. It begins with the social network that you’ve established elsewhere. Presently, it requires Facebook ; other networks will be added, it says. Once signed up, you submit a question to Aardvark via an instant message or e-mail, and its software looks among your Facebook friends, and friends-of-your-friends, for volunteers to answer it. You can exclude any friends from the potential contact list. Checks if prospective advice givers are online If no one is interested in answering, Aardvark sends the question along to another small batch, extending from friends to friends-of-friends, and then their friends, if necessary. If the best matches aren’t online, e-mail messages are sent. Having humans, not software, supply the advice is important . Max Ventilla, who formerly was at Google and is now Aardvark’s chief executive, said, “Often the most useful answers don’t answer the original question. On Time’s 50 Best Websites of 2009 NY Times says, “ Now All Your Friends Are in the Answer Business” (july 2009)
- NY Times taking advantage (quickly) Lists were beta in early october and officially live in October NY times had these lists up within a few days… Be a filter Add value Help people connect not just with information, but with information in a social context.
- Be a filter Add value Help people connect not just with information, but with information in a social context.
- ASKch is a new service from Nashville-based healthcare information provider Change:Healthcare that allows users to send quick healthcare questions via Twitter and have them answered within 60 seconds. Consumers can simply tweet a question such as, “what is diabetes” to @ askch , which is now in beta; in return, they get a short description of the disease and a link to more information. The new application is just the first phase of what will ultimately be a much larger service from Change:Healthcare that aims to help consumers &quot;be more informed and potentially save hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars,&quot; the company says. Where else could Twitter be used to answer consumers' standard questions quickly and in real time.. Again, the question is: if people start getting use to quick answers through twitter, how can libraries position themselves in this new reality??
- Convenience Speed (nowism; Time is the new money) Hospitality Choices (but limited choices) Multiple Channels Power of Place
- If more people are working from home and need short term space, where can libraries fit into this? We have the infrastructure (wireless) Are you seeing business people use the library as the office? What can you do to promote or build on this?
- Some other trends Less need for f2f (the flip side of the need for a “third” place. Is Anonymity/Privacy (I can look up my delicate medical condition w/o going to the ref desk) How many Questions do you get from embarrassed teens about STD now compared to 10 years ago? <click>
- “I buy things from people on eBay, I don’t actually want to visit their home, meet their children or have coffee with them … And the web enables us to actually engage with other people at a level of closeness or distance of our own choosing. That, in itself, is hugely significant. - Rory Sutherland (blog.ted.com/2009/10/qa_with_rory_su.php)
- Some other trends Less need for f2f (the flip side of the need for a “third” place. Is Anonymity/Privacy Anywhere/Anytime Social Networks
- More than 300 million active users
- 50% of our active users log on to Facebook in any given day
- The fastest growing demographic is those 35 years old and older
- There are more than 65 million active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
- # People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
- # People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users. From Aug 08 to Aug 09: 40 to 120 million unique visitors So what do you see as some of the ramifications and opportunities? Start a facebook page Post pictures Post events It’s not just a way for you to communicate with them, it’s a way for library users to see/hear and interact with EACH OTHER Build a community feeling. Demonstrate support. Give you a QUICK way to contact many people.
- So we’ve discussed Change Trends We see that it’s hard to predict what’s coming, but by paying attention and valuing play and experimentation, we can respond rapidly and position ourselves for success. I’d like to make an argument that one of the best ways to future-proof, is to build into the way we do business a focus on the customer experience. This is related to usability, but really goes beyond usability, which is just one part of the customer experience.
- Peter Moville’s User Experience Honeycomb VALUE Useful Desirable Accessible Credible (A REAL LEVERAGE POINT FOR US) Findable Usable
- In a talk that Jesse James Garrett did at UX Week 2009 (a user experience conference), he suggests that our goal should be engagement and that customers can be engaged in four primary ways. Through Perception (senses) Action (body) Cognition (mind) Emotion (heart) From. Jesse James Garrett | The State Of User Experience, http://vimeo.com/6952223
- What does that kind of engagement look like? Let’s See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lXh2n0aPyw So how were the people in this video being engaged? Perception (sound, visual) Action (jumping, walking) Cognition (choices, cause/effect) Emotion (fun!) Garrett suggests that Once you start thinking in terms of user experience, you start to see user experience problems everywhere; you can’t NOT see these problems.
- Also think in terms of our customers’ capabilities (what can they do) and constraints (what can’t they do) Customers’ Capabilities | Constraints of: Perception Action (physical) Cognitive Emotion It can be helpful to develop personas… And when developing services, or marketing, pr, to think about how each persona may or may not engage based on their capabilities, constraints and context (psychological, social, environmental, cultural, etc.)
- Ask people what they want, but know that’s not the end of the story Henry ford said if he had asked people what they wanted, they would said “Faster Horses” Sometimes people don’t know what they want until it’s given to them (like wireless on an airplane) Who asked for atm’s and online billpay ? Who asked for self-checkout ? Who asked for IM ? Who asked for Iphones ? At SJRLC where I’m responsible for offering a slate of workshops When I schedule classes, my biggest successes are with topics on the outer edge of their awareness ; topics that were never requested, not classes they’ve requested . So it is with your customers. The fact is, they might not know what they want, until you give it to them [click]