Climate Adaptation Planning
A 21st Century call for rapid
reformation.
By Paul M. Suckow, PhD. Candidate, TSU Urban Planni...
1: Global Warming
• The Earth is suffering an energy
imbalance of, currently, 1.5 watts per
square meter (or per square ya...
1: Global Heating
• This may not sound like much until you realize
that 2 W/m² is the same thing as over four (4)
1800 wat...
2: It’s an energy issue
• The energy imbalance comes from
sunlight which enters Earth’s atmosphere,
is absorbed on and nea...
2: It’s an energy issue
• Another way to visualize the current
energy imbalance of heat that cannot
escape to space:
o it ...
3: Heat trapped by GHG
• The Earth’s atmosphere contains a small
amount of so-called “greenhouse gases”
(GHG) that reradia...
4: GHG vary in effectiveness
• These “greenhouse
gases” (GHG), rated
by strength of heat
capture (GWP-100,
where 1=Carbon
...
5: GHGs stabilize climate
• For all of humanity the most abundant of
the natural GHG have fluctuated in a
steady cycle, mo...
5: GHGs stabilize our climate
• At the cyclic low end, only enough GHG
remained free in the atmosphere to allow heat
from ...
6: Climate lag
• There exists a time lag between when
increases in GHG translate to the
corresponding full rise in tempera...
6: Climate lag
• For instance, the global surface
temperature of Earth increased 0.85
degrees Celsius up through the prese...
7: Causes of the cycle
• Cycles of natural climate change are driven largely by
the formation of either ice or organic mat...
8: The fossil record
• Looking backward, remains of 12 (ten to
twelve) identifiable glaciation cycles over
about the past ...
9: Last glacial maximum
• The Last Glacial Maximum plateaued
25,000 - 21,000 years before the present
after building up gl...
10: Global inundations
• Three giant freshwater floods with global
effects occurred along with many smaller
events as glob...
11: Three global floods ago
• The initial melt water pulse, termed “1A” by
scientists, happened around 14,600 years before...
11: Three global floods ago
• Almost nothing is known of presumed human
settlements or civilization from that early period...
12: Two global floods ago
• A second cataclysmic melt water release
followed about 12,700 years ago.
• Enough fresh water ...
12: Two global floods ago
• The cataclysmic water burst caused massive destruction
ending megalithic human civilization at...
13: One global flood ago
• The last great melt water inundation happened
8450 years ago +- 25 years (D. C. Barber et al.
1...
14: Cultural disruption
• These great inundations so catastrophically
disrupted human settlements and civilization that
ex...
15: Cultural rebirths
• Each period of climate stability between the great
meltwater flood pulses allowed human
settlement...
16: New underwater evidence
• Marine archeological evidence only discovered
recently may prove that human urbanization
sig...
17: Physical extinctions:
The end of births
• Predatory human activity has reinforced the
tendency for extinction of large...
17: Physical Extinctions:
The end of births
• The “6th Great Extinction” is accelerating
currently from 1000 times the nat...
18: Hot Earth unknown to humans
Prior to known hominid species and even before mammals gained the niches they have
occupie...
19: Hot Earth’s giants
• Such an abundance of organic matter grew on
Earth during hot, wet periods that the
concentration ...
20: Prior “Cold Earth” eras
• To find the last event in geologic time when
Earth ended an extended period of ice ages, we
...
20: Prior “Cold Earth” eras
• During the development of life, only one earlier
cold era around 460 Ma traded with longer w...
21: Violent benevolence
• Short, extremely violent periods of climate crisis
appear the norm as Earth’s climate “step-jump...
22: Causes of transition
• In the past, direct climate forcings such as
slight differences in solar activity or orbital
“w...
23: High climate sensitivity
• All previous climate changes responded very
sensitively to small natural variations, many o...
24: Brief human control
• The trajectories of atmospheric GHG changes
experienced during the natural past have already
bee...
25: Unplanned human direction of
Earth systems
• Most of the control exerted by humans on
Earth systems during this period...
26: Most say it’s a sin
• Most systems of theological thought
consider the crossing of this threshold a
terrible transgres...
27: Large & abrupt climate change
• It is possible that human out-gassing of carbon-
containing GHG has already set in mot...
27: Large &
abrupt climate
change
• This seems the
natural method that
relocated and
reopened many
ecological niches.
• It...
28: Extinction Events & Climate
In each of the past five mass extinctions,
the top trophic level was lost as NPP
shrank, e...
29: Is it our time to go?
• Whether the current concentration of
GHG, being unnatural, leads to a new
sustained foreign cl...
30: The 2° C upper limit
• Currently, the scientific consensus believes that only
about two degrees Celsius (just over six...
31: A 5.8° C best guess
• The best climate models estimate
expected increases to range from one up
to ten degrees Celsius,...
32: Runaway climate crisis
• A three, four, five or more Celsius degree global
temperature increase places the climate wel...
Feedbacks Summary 33-41
• 33: More harsh weather
• 34: Biological decay modifier
• 35: From reflector to collector
• 36: B...
33: More harsh weather
• The arrivals of super-strength hurricanes and
typhoons around the world in 2005 may have
signaled...
34: Biological decay modifier
• Rapidly melting tundra lands expose
ancient frozen organic matter to sudden
decay into GHG...
35: From reflector to collector
• Conversions of ice and snow covers into
ocean melt water and waterlogged soils
feed back...
36: Blooming spikes of GHG
• Expect massive blooms and die-offs with
biological decomposition of existing organic
matter i...
37: Rapid sea level rise
• From six to around twenty feet of sea level rise
may be expected shortly after this century,
de...
38: Repeated sea incursions
• These permanent increases in sea level will
generally arrive riding upon the incursions of
v...
39: Runaway sea level rise
• If the Earth is committed to a runaway climate change
state over the next decades, ultimate s...
40: Reflective aerosol reductions
• Loss of the northern hemisphere’s reflective
aerosols will quickly escalate surface
te...
41: Fires shift land to upward
climate forcing
• Fires in the remaining forests of the southern
hemisphere, and as seen in...
42: Alternative Path
• An alternative path toward limiting global
warming exists but is not yet being pursued.
• Even thos...
The unwillingness of the United
States of America to ratify the
Kyoto Protocol robbed it of moral
high ground necessary fo...
The cost and difficulty of accessing an
alternative path increases with each
addition of GHG to the atmosphere and
thus wi...
An encouraging exception to thesis
44 above was a nearly complete 45-
year effort by the nation of Brazil to
eliminate its...
There is no single strategy that will
accomplish the desired reductions of
GHG emissions (carbon mitigation
initiative), b...
Initiatives include treating
remaining reserves of fossil
organics as raw materials for
closed-loop electro-chemical
proce...
Initiatives include replacing inefficient
processes with ones that conserve
energy to a much greater extent.
Such strategi...
Initiatives include a redefinition of
the current value paradigm tied to
mass good scarcity to a new
paradigm of value bas...
Initiatives will generally require public
sector political support for artificially
enhancing the economics of
renewable e...
These initiatives lead to radically different
future lifestyles from those that people
aspire to today, and will exacerbat...
These initiatives provide an
opportunity to advocate for
greater human equity but risk the
perils of warfare in a period o...
Current levels of human population
and activity guarantee that the next
“ice age” has been postponed,
perhaps indefinitely...
The use of money as measure of
value rather than simply a medium of
exchange provides false security
today and in the worl...
Following current practices for just
ten more years will effectively set
Earth on the path to runaway climate
change, with...
A better measure of the economic
value of energy may be
DollarPounds/kWh. This is some
multiple of the dollar price respon...
The new carbon economy is
based not only on the scarcity of
valuable goods but on avoiding
the danger of additional
atmosp...
Recasting the problem of global
warming as one of controlling an
atmospheric energy surplus rather
than one of reducing ma...
The free market is able to accomplish
much, but not very much that is
guided, directed, targeted, focused or
planned, thou...
59: Adaptation = Planning
• Planning must
expand in theoretical
scope to include the
aim of secure
development.
• The Plan...
Adaptation to the effects of the
climate crisis will likely cost
more than the alternative path
of avoidance/mitigation, s...
Also, new and replacement
development must incorporate
the state of the art in climate
change avoidance/mitigation,
to del...
• Climate adaptation planning
must include all of the lessons learned
in the past century of planning
experience,
ie.
59: ...
Climate adaptation planning
must develop a discreet, concrete,
interlocking and self-reinforcing
system to displace suburb...
To avert the ambitions of the few at any extreme
of various spectrums, the yearnings of the
population of the world for in...
Any initiative for democratic action
must allow for completely
transparent information to help the
people make decisions t...
Information cannot bear the
individual bias of sources that
fund its production or
dissemination, but must conform
to the ...
Intellectual property rights may need to be
reviewed, revised or waived for the greater good
or the definition of fair use...
Communities dedicated to public
service may wish to consider
reinvesting all available revenues
toward solving the various...
Now exists an opportunity to define a
new “greatest generation” in whose
debt all future humans will live, even
as those w...
This new “greatest generation” will
triumph chiefly in setting forth an
Adaptation Plan for Climate
Change with an impleme...
The common appellation “global
warming” or its scientific euphemism
“climate change” serves to enwrap
many codependent and...
At the Earth and climate sciences
end of the spectrum, this
phenomenon appears complex,
but from a human perspective it is...
Humans must stop burning
(oxidizing) carbon-based things in
the open atmosphere as rapidly
as possible.
68: It All Comes t...
Brief Intermission
• You have been patient to follow me
through 68 of these 95 theses thus far.
• Please take a short brea...
69: Dr. Keeling’s Curve
The famous “Keeling curve” has been issuing an
increasingly dire warning to the scientific communi...
The “Keeling curve” within only a few years
contained enough detail to confirm the theory
that the overall concentration o...
The international community
accepts the reality of global
warming, and is pressuring
American leadership.
71: Internationa...
The UN’s International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), in its AR1 report in 1990 noted much
uncertainty but concluded a be...
The IPCC in its AR2 in 1995 concluded climate
“has changed over the past century” and
“balance of evidence suggests a disc...
The IPCC in its AR3 in 2001 finally concluded
that most of the change in global climate that
had occurred to that date had...
The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report in 2007,
though much of the working group material was
completed and submitted by 2005, ...
Even a best-case world scenario
continuing to use fossil fuels, has become
clearly dangerous. Only a stringent
mitigation ...
Advanced American climate scientists
still maintained the assumption that
global climate is controllable at this
point, an...
The most advanced thinkers looking
comprehensively at the scientific, political
and personal realities of energy
requireme...
It is likely that climate change will trigger
migrations on a scale never before experienced
in the development of Homo sa...
Philosophical reactions to climate change:
The population may choose to react to
catastrophic climate change in several
wa...
Hedonism and spirituality/religiosity will
offer anesthetic responses to catastrophic
climate change if the lack of good f...
Abandonment of the Earth’s surface may
become a functional response for some few
people who attempt to maintain elements o...
Because the vast majority of people on Earth are
likely to feel failed by their governments,
religious affiliations and ev...
Ironically, some changes of consequence will occur before any
physical effects of truly catastrophic climate change materi...
To avoid an industry-wide meltdown that would gravely limit the future
of the City of Houston, Harris County, the State of...
A global public trust must result from a
binding voluntary settlement agreed and
mutually coerced by all stakeholders
wher...
This directly democratic and
global public trust would provide
necessary resources for mitigating
actions in the adaptatio...
An incomplete price signal is
furthering use of fossil fuels well
beyond the “safety limit” of 350 ppm
CO2 in the atmosphe...
The Cap and Trade approach of the
Montreal Protocol (1988) has begun
to heal the ozone hole above
Antarctica.
Being the on...
A Cap and Trade solution requires
the creation of a new market for
trading credits that allow an entity to
emit a set amou...
With the failure of Cap and Trade, a
Carbon Tax was suggested to add a
significant and slowly rising price on
top of the o...
Carbon Fee and Dividend is the policy
proposal created by Citizens’ Climate
Lobby (CCL) to internalize the costs of
burnin...
Carbon Fee Trust Fund revenues could
be collected and distributed by the same
thousand or so entities which initially owe
...
A. Immediate moratorium on any new
coal plants lacking full CO2
sequestration.
93: Strong U.S. Public Policies
needed imme...
B. Utility rewards transformed so as
to encourage increased
profitability as they achieve improved
user efficiencies.
94: ...
C. Fair and gradually rising price on
carbon emissions imposed,
to encourage a reduction in GHG
emissions, with price dete...
Thank you for your critical
discussion of these 95 theses.
Life as we know it is on the line, and how we respond this
year...
Selected References
Barber, D. C. et al. (1999). Nature 400, 344.
Bassett, S. E., G. A. Milne, J. X. Mitrovica, and P. U. ...
Selected References, cont.
• Continued:
Schwartz, P., & Randall, D. (2003). An abrupt climate change scenario and its impl...
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Disputation On Planning And Global Warming 95 Theses

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A modern 95 Theses to post on the "church doors" of our society, about spectacular adaptation needed to counter climate change and the planning that adaptation implies.

Here's the link to how Exxon and the rest of the global oil industry learned definitively about the dangers of global warming, from none other than the real-world "Dr. Stangelove" during a symposium at Columbia University in 1959 to celebrate the industry's 100th anniversary (educational free use):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BziORi5jLFeuMGExM2FjZmEtNDJhNS00NzM4LTgwNDgtYTkyMjJkNmFkZDQz/view?usp=sharing

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  • This is the updated version incorporating findings released in the IPCC consensus Assessment Report Number Five, December, 2014.
  • This information was confirmed with James E. Hansen in private communications during 2009.
  • “Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases.” - The new 2014 IPCC AR5 (Headline statements from the Summary for Policymakers, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/docs/ar5_syr_headlines_en.pdf, first page).
  • Houghton, J. (1997). Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (Second ed.). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
  • Oh, and the number of furnaces is increasing at roughly 438 million across the globe per day.
    A more disturbing visualization of the heat of global warming added IN ONE DAY to the Earth’s surface involves the explosion of 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs. That’s the same heat as the explosion of OVER SIXTEEN MILLION AIRLINERS of the type used to attack the Twin Towers (9/11/2001).
  • Houghton, J. (1997). Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (Second ed.). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
  • Simplest gas (H2O) is predominant, up to 66% of warming, but largely an indirect positive feedback to CO2
  • From the new 2014 IPCC AR5 (Headline statements from the Summary for Policymakers, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/docs/ar5_syr_headlines_en.pdf, first page):
    “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
  • Milankovitch Cycles Supported with groundbreaking correlation of magnetic pole reversals with oxygen isotope data (1973) at: http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/03_1.shtml
  • A similar effect occurred without human agency 55 million years ago. A superplume of greenhouse gasses, perhaps from volcanic sources, suddenly enveloped the earth. The additional greenhouse gasses were similar in amount to that added by humans during the industrial age, and the effects of increased heat at the planet’s surface lasted 200,000 years (Lovelock. 2006. Revenge of Gaia.).
  • The greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have a very long lifespan, most of it lasting many centuries. Also, the heat absorbed by the oceans will continue to warm the lower atmosphere in a thousand-year cycle. These residence times are much longer than the periods normally used by planners and other social scientists.
  • The “signals” received from the variability of sunlight due to orbital and precessional changes are extremely weak compared to the utter blast of anthropogenic global heating. The Earth’s climate feedback mechanisms evolved to be sensitive to the much weaker signals, and how they will react to the large human signal is extremely worrisome.
  • These ice core and ocean sediment studies are some of the seminal records used in the study of paleoclimate.
  • Encyclopedia Britannica article on Climate Change last updated 6/27/2013 at:
    http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/121632/climate-change/275788/The-Last-Glacial-Maximum#ref994351
  • I’ve been searching for a simple name for this degradation phenomenon of human perception without success. In general, the further back in time an observer looks, the fuzzier the picture becomes with larger error bars in the estimates. An ultimate example of this phenomenon occurs in astrophysics when powerful telescopes attempt to view the most distant objects only to be thwarted by a time before the first stars collected enough mass to light up – the so-called astral dark ages. These lasted from the end of cosmic background radiation (and origin of visible light) 380 thousand years after the big bang, until the first stars were born 400 million years after the big bang. Times even deeper than the end of cosmic background radiation cannot be sensed at all using electromagnetic radiation.
  • Peak levels of SLR during MWP 1A were 10 to 20 times greater than the 3 mm per year rate we are currently seeing.
  • Even if conflated with a global flood epic, the Noah story appears detailed upon a more recent and localized flooding event during the Mesopotamian period of civilization.
  • Per 2005 www.adherents.com
  • Not that humans will notice anything, but the arc or trajectory of climate change will at that time become practicably unalterable.
  • Per paleobiologist Doug Erwin of the Smithsonian Institutions National Museum of Natural History. Erwin quoted estimates of extinction rates that are from the late John J. Sepkoski at the University of Chicago .
  • The vertical red line shows that in just about 200 years we have risen from just over 12 degrees Celsius to a global mean temperature of between 14 and 15 degrees Celsius!
    NPP = Nutrient Primary Producers, such as kelp and plankton in the world as we know it.
  • Answer: I truly hope not. Hope may reside in planting living populations for safety and redundancy in many places across our solar system, and eventually beyond.
  • Although the earth may have sustained and survived similar geologically brief bursts of greenhouse gasses that are not resolvable in the fossil record...the closest thing in the record was 55 million years ago with the opening of the Atlantic divide, when about a tera-ton of carbon was released into the atmosphere…and that disruption raised temperatures for about 200,000 years. According to James Lovelock, the inventor of Gaia “earth systems” theory, the current position in our geologic era with its extremely low atmospheric carbon dioxide content and lengthening ice age interstadials implies that the earth is struggling mightily to maintain its roughly 12 degree Celsius “ice box” climate, and that the next ice age entrance 10,000 years from now may have been among the last of the series (Lovelock. 2006. Revenge of Gaia.).
  • Remember, the Earth as a climate system has been finely tuned to react to tiny natural climate-forcing signals much smaller than the outgassing of perhaps 2 teratons of carbon over a period of less than 500 years. This human signal to the Earth is on the order of a powerful indirect climate feedback which if triggered, may ignite the interlocked natural mechanisms capable of pushing climate over bounds and into a different state.
  • It is my understanding from foremost ice modelers Clark et al. that as of 2008, no ice models could reproduce measured dynamical ice changes recorded in the fossil record. More recent models are perhaps closer to understanding icecap melt, but are not ready for integration with coupled air-ocean climate models nor the integrated social and economic modeling that rely upon the output scenarios developed from those.
  • These magnitudes of change seem incalculable to my human sensibilities.
  • Note that it takes about 1,000 years for the heat placed into circulation on the “ocean conveyor” to complete a circuit. However, hydrate formations exist in the open ocean mostly at depths beginning around 1,640 feet. The amount of methane frozen in water trails off toward ocean floor pressure because it is metabolized on the long way down (http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/).
  • The IPCC consensus document AR4 based on science through 2005, found the contributions of icecap deterioration too difficult to accurately quantify. Thus unable to place an upper limit on sea-level rise, it only reported the several feet of sea-level rise that will certainly arrive from thermal ocean expansion alone by 2100.
  • Note that even the minor (four foot) storm surge of a large snowstorm experienced by the Northeast US in January 2015 caused erosion of unprotected beach sands and flooding.
  • Remember that a long term impact like sea level rise, from a human viewpoint, will become a new normal which will for practical purposes run for about a millennium. At first it may appear tenuous, but as ice melts faster during hundreds of years hence, ever higher tides will roll in steadily.
  • We are in the proverbial space between a rock and a hard spot when it comes to air pollutant emissions.
  • Note that recent global contributions of greenhouse gasses were made up to a large extent (~40%) by natural uncontrollable bog and coal seam fires in Indonesia. Early studies estimated that the boreal forests of the northern hemisphere were unlikely to remain standing much past 2070.
  • The kind of reductions in fossil fuel use that are required are staggering to a world entirely geared for their exploitation.
  • The time to act, even according to estimates done back in the late 1950s was at latest around 1990 (1960, Dr. Edward Teller in Man and Energy: a Symposium, Columbia University, NY, NY, p.70 available at book excerpt clickable here ). If that path had been pursued a slower movement to a carbon-free society would not have become quite so burdensome as a rapid one has become now.
  • The last real international progress made in climate talks was reached at the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From Wikipedia: This is an international environmental treaty (currently the only international climate policy venue with broad legitimacy, due in part to its virtually universal membership)[2] negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992. The objective of the treaty is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
  • Note however that this effort took over 40 years, and benefitted primarily Brazil. The United States instead entered into ethanol production from a primary food crop, indirectly causing the global destabilization informally known as the “Arab Spring.”
  • http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/
  • Of the alternative energy sources, geothermal has perhaps the largest immediate non-intermittent potential to support base-load energy demand. Solar and wind require storage resources which often lose energy at the interfaces. Estimates of available geothermal resources range to 3000 years of current world energy use. Wave and tidal energy are not as universally applicable. Nuclear energy is limited by the complexity and safety of older designs and by the fuel readily available for these until the development of new breeder reactor technology which stopped in the 1990s is allowed to restart. If successful, breeder reactors can utilize the large stock of spent fuel rods, providing power while reducing safety risks.
  • World Dignity Day is the third Wednesday in October of each year. Dignity – one thing that unites us all.
    http://www.globaldignity.org/view/Global-Dignity-Day-2015
  • Consider the pace with which American cultural hegemony reached the masses elsewhere in the world. Again revising the target culture for the masses is most likely to take more time than the unknown amount we have remaining to reduce human impacts exacerbating future climate change.
  • India quakes over China's water plan
    Posted by drhein in Planning and Management from http://www.atimes.com, last retrieved 12/24/2008:
    "Even as India and China are yet to resolve their decades-old territorial dispute, another conflict is looming. China's diversion of the waters of a river originating in Tibet to its water-scarce areas could leave India's northeast parched. This is expected to trigger new tensions in the already difficult relations between the two Asian giants."
  • So from the perspective of our current Western civilization, the effects of climate change will remain with us effectively forever.
  • Money wealth must be coupled with reducing measures of climate damage potential to maintain any real meaning in the future.
  • A more recent American government publication (Dec. 18, 2008) that reports on the science of Rapid Climate Change tells us that much higher sea level rise than those published in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report is likely based on recent measurements of glacial mass reductions in Greenland and measurable already in Antarctica.
  • Scarcity is hardly a factor – we have more than enough identified reserves of fossil fuels to definitively ruin the climate for all future humankind. And remember that most of the damaging releases of greenhouse gases will be natural as feedbacks to our past promptings.
  • The valuable things in the new economy will be diverse and individuated, returnable to its component parts or substances and so infinitely revisable.
  • Dr. James E. Hansen has already stated (2008) that the question is no longer one of simply reducing total emissions from fossil fuels, but one of actively leaving coal, the most carbon-bearing fuel resource, in the ground. And if we are to return to a world of climate safety, over the next century humanity must find a way to sequester billions of tons/tonnes of carbon from the air back into solid earth storage reservoirs.
  • The credit for this thesis in my own education goes to Buffalo’s finest Dr. Bradshaw Hovey.
  • After Steve Campbell, 1995. https://my.vanderbilt.edu/greencities/files/2014/08/Campbell.pdf, and dissertation work by Robert Muhammud and Paul M. Suckow in TSU’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs Urban Planning and Environmental Policy program. Shout out to academic adviser Dr. Lalita Sen.
  • From the new 2014 IPCC AR5 (Headline statements from the Summary for Policymakers, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/docs/ar5_syr_headlines_en.pdf, second page):
    “Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence). Mitigation involves some level of co-benefits and of risks due to adverse side-effects, but these risks do not involve the same possibility of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts as risks from climate change, increasing the benefits from near-term mitigation efforts.
    Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness, especially with greater magnitudes and rates of climate change. Taking a longer-term perspective, in the context of sustainable development, increases the likelihood that more immediate adaptation actions will also enhance future options and preparedness.”
  • In Rosenzweig, C., D.C. Major, K. Demong, C. Stanton, R. Horton, and M. Stults. (2007). “Managing climate change risks in New York City's water system: Assessment and adaptation planning.” Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Global Change, 12, 1391-1409, doi:10.1007/s11027-006-9070-5.
  • This is a synopsis of planning theory and practice. The definition of quality of life improvement was posited by Andres Duany at his 2007 Rice University lecture to the Houston development community.
  • McDonough’s Cradle to Cradle is one of my favorite books. The highlighted adjectives in this slide are credited to New Urbanist Adres Duaney in his speech to the Houston, Texas development community at Rice University in 2007.
  • Satyagraha is the word coined by Mahatma Ghandi to describe the art of active non-violence. It may be translated “grasping or grappling with the truth.”
  • This requirement is already causing friction in the intellectual property community; see Thesis 63. The Wikimedia Foundation is trying to create a new path toward shared information about everything in the world. The task of prioritizing and translating this into a compelling, easy to understand, universal and permanent literature that can survive our generation remains before us (Lovelock. 2006. Revenge of Gaia.).
  • Be a peer reviewer! Leave a comment where you found this presentation, or email me privately if you wish at [email_address]
  • This change may be expected to occupy legislatures and courts for at least a century.
  • Mitigation studies consistently find that early intervention lowers costs. The benefits of technology learning are well illustrated by Blyth et al. (2009), who modeled total costs and marginal prices for scenarios with carbon market only, and with added early technology support (http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Summing_Up.pdf , p.28)
  • Will you be a prized member of a “greatest generation,” or become a reviled bystander in the defining struggle of the 21st Century?
  • We may hope that a geologically short overrun of greenhouse gas will allow ice to remain at the poles, perhaps with but preferably without engineered climate interventions. James Lovelock warns in his Revenge of Gaia (2006) that assuming permanent human responsibility for planetary management would enslave humankind to the worst kinds of drudgery and frustration. Successful planetary management was, before about 1960, a de facto service provided by naturally interacting organic and inorganic substances.
  • Also remember that weather patterns and trends are widely variable about the mean. The trend of the means over many years is properly considered climate.
  • It’s that simple.
  • Dr. Edward Teller was an invited speaker in 1959 on the future of energy. He fingered global warming as a primary reason that humanity should not rely on fossil fuels much beyond 1990. Of course, as a leader in successful hydrogen bomb research he advocated moving to clean, electronically bottled nuclear fusion. But if you get into reading the linked document, don’t forget Theses 69-95, there is more of interest to you ahead!
  • This graph was only one year old when Dr. Teller picked up on the trend and included Dr. Keeling’s initial results from Scripps Institute research in his speech to the assembled world oil industry celebrating their 100th anniversary in 1959 at Columbia University. The measurements then showed CO2 content of the atmosphere rising from 315 ppm. Dr. Keeling was presented the highest U. S. scientific award, the National Medal of Science, by President George W. Bush in 2002 and died in 2005. These measurements had grown to 385 parts per million, rising about 2 ppm per year, when I first created this graphic in 2009. They have continued to accelerate, first exceeding 400 ppm May 9, 2013.
  • https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
  • The election of Barack Obama signals potential for American resurgence.
  • Dr. Hansen et al’s papers can be a pretty heavy reading assignment for most of us. But his popular book, “Storms of My Grandchildren” contains the same research results in a much more accessible format. I recommend it strongly.
  • Among these are a venerable British man of science named Dr. Lovelock. As a local planner, my considerations must also include all scientific, political and personal constraints and potentials, leading us into a new discipline of Climate Change Adaptation Planning. All adaptation planners affirm that as long as they remain available and effective, the strongest possible mitigation measures must accompany any adaptation efforts.
  • The 2008-2012 economic crisis presented an argument by which to emplace federal protections for companies deemed too large to fail. The public should be aware and active in this issue.
  • Still so hope I (since 2006), and also Peter Barnes http://www.earthinc.org/earth_atmospheric_trust.php and others…
  • Following the reasoning in “The Tragedy of the Commons” (Hardin, Garrett. 1968. Science 13 December 1968: Vol. 162 no. 3859 pp. 1243-1248 DOI: 10.1126/science.162.3859.1243 ) available to all at http://www.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full
  • So over the next slides I investigate other alternatives to funding climate change adaptation/mitigation.
  • Global average carbon dioxide in well-mixed air is set to pass 400 ppm in 2015 (http://climate.nasa.gov/).
  • Cap and Trade is weak in part because it presumes that a regulatory body can decide what the cap on greenhouse gases should be at any given time. There is no such global body in existence, and establishing such a limit by treaty has been frustrated by fights between haves and have-nots.
  • Perhaps the greatest weakness of a Carbon Tax solution is the dependence it would create inside governments that assess it, if revenues are used for general fund or government-specific purposes.
  • Place a steadily rising fee on the CO2 content of fossil fuels. These would start at $15 per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions and result in equal charges for each ton of CO2 equivalent emissions potential in each type of fuel or greenhouse gas. The Department of Energy shall propose and promulgate regulations setting forth CO2 equivalent fees for other greenhouse gases including at a minimum methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons, and nitrogen trifluoride. My personal favorite regulation would require that any change in consumer price would trigger a proportional increase in Carbon Fees, making profiteers think thrice about gauging consumers.
    Give all of the revenue from the carbon fee back to households. 100% of the revenue from the carbon fee is held in a Carbon Fees Trust fund and returned directly to households as a monthly dividend. The vast majority of households will receive more than they will pay for increased energy costs. This feature will inject billions into the economy, protect family budgets, free households to make independent choices about their energy usage, spur innovation and build aggregate demand for low-carbon products at the consumer level.
    Border adjustments ensure fairness and competition, while encouraging reciprocol policies across the globe. Import fees on products imported from countries without a carbon fee, along with rebates to US industries exporting to those countries, will create a fair competitive environment for exporters and motivate other countries to adopt similar carbon pricing policies. Existing tax and trade systems avoid complex new institutional arrangements. Firms seeking to escape higher energy costs will be discouraged from relocating to noncompliant nations (“leakage”), as their products will be subject to import fees.
    It's good for the economy AND even better for the climate. A study from REMI shows that carbon fee-and-dividend will reduce CO2 emissions 50% below 1990 levels in 20 years and that recycling the revenue creates an economic stimulus that adds 2.8 million jobs to the economy. A structured rising price on GHG emissions will focus business planning on optimizing investment priorities to thrive in a carbon-constrained world. Carbon Fee and Dividend does not increase the size of government, require new bureaucracies or directly increase government revenues. Imagine how inexpensively this could be implemented using an internet currency such as Bitcoin! Companies and states that rely on fossil fuel revenues today will gain clarity to speed transition within existing open markets. The dividend increases real disposable income, protects personal spending decisions and will recruit widespread, sustained engagement. Finally, Carbon Fee and Dividend is elegant in its simplicity, transparent it its accessibility to public scrutiny and clear in its signals and benefits.
  • This would by-pass the Treasury Department altogether during nominal periods, reducing the temptation for Congress and the President to tap into the Carbon Fee Trust Fund for governmental purposes. By providing an income stream to consumers, energy companies and states that currently depend on fossil fuel exploration and production would soften public perception even as consumer purchases themselves widely kick-start and accelerate a rapid movement to a post-fossil-carbon energy future and act to preserve remaining hydrocarbon resources for more valuable and inventive future exploitation.
  • Credits to Al Gore and Dr. James E. Hansen. Fossil fuels are fungible, and will be used quite inevitably once they are unearthed. Full use of identified reserves of conventional oil and gas resources would release enough carbon to the air to almost certainly trigger irreversible, runaway climate change and the likely extermination of a significant proportion of Earth’s living species. Coal is more abundant but of lower energy density and even higher carbon content.
  • Credits to Al Gore and Dr. James E. Hansen. Utilities need to restructure to make it more rewarding to conserve than to consume. This goes for energy utilities as well as water/wastewater, telecommunication, transportation and educational utilities.
  • Credits to Al Gore, Dr. James E. Hansen and Paul M. Suckow. Full democratic consideration of  economic, environmental, equity & security issues inherently requires Internet Equality and a free and open press corps that seeks to unify rather than segment global public understanding.
  • Democratic co-education and co-discussion and consensus seeking toward meaningful action has never been more important than it is in 2015. Please discuss amongst yourselves, and I may be reached at the [email_address] email address or my workday telephone 1-713-578-2018.
  • These were my original references cited 2007- 2009. Oh, and: IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2014’s IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report with WG papers and and summary for policy makers is at: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
  • For those with interests similar to mine, the Urban Climate Adaptation Planning: Results of a Global Survey constitutes an excellent 30-page introduction. It’s reference list is specific to urban applications of Climate Change Adaptation Planning. http://web.mit.edu/jcarmin/www/urbanadapt/Urban%20Adaptation%20Report%20FINAL.pdf
  • Disputation On Planning And Global Warming 95 Theses

    1. 1. Climate Adaptation Planning A 21st Century call for rapid reformation. By Paul M. Suckow, PhD. Candidate, TSU Urban Planning and Environmental Policy. v.2.2 9/10/2015
    2. 2. 1: Global Warming • The Earth is suffering an energy imbalance of, currently, 1.5 watts per square meter (or per square yard in English units) of surface area on average. • The amount of imbalance is similar to the heat added by one Christmas “sparkle” light per square meter across the globe.
    3. 3. 1: Global Heating • This may not sound like much until you realize that 2 W/m² is the same thing as over four (4) 1800 watt hair driers per acre (that’s over 2,650 driers per square mile) of Earth’s entire surface, blowing on full heat, 24/7. • The number of “hair driers” is increasing on an exponential scale for centuries (IPCC 2014).
    4. 4. 2: It’s an energy issue • The energy imbalance comes from sunlight which enters Earth’s atmosphere, is absorbed on and near the Earth’s surface, and is re-radiated as heat. • A little less of this heat escapes the atmosphere to space than has happened in the past.
    5. 5. 2: It’s an energy issue • Another way to visualize the current energy imbalance of heat that cannot escape to space: o it is as if almost three hundred (300) extra 60,000 BTU space heaters were left running constantly above every square mile of the planet’s surface. That is a lot of excess heat.
    6. 6. 3: Heat trapped by GHG • The Earth’s atmosphere contains a small amount of so-called “greenhouse gases” (GHG) that reradiate heat inside and limit the amount that escapes back into outer space. • Under natural conditions, these GHG warm the planet just enough to keep it comfortable (14 ° C, 58° F) instead of frozen (-6° C, 21.2° F) (Houghton 1997).
    7. 7. 4: GHG vary in effectiveness • These “greenhouse gases” (GHG), rated by strength of heat capture (GWP-100, where 1=Carbon Dioxide and *=man- made, not natural) include: 5,700 – 22,000 CF4 to SF6* (Fluorinated Species) 1,600HFC-134a* (Refrigerant) 296N2O (Nitrous Oxide) 23CH4 (Methane) 1CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) Source: IPCC (2001) 3rd Assessment Report “While water vapour is indeed the most important greenhouse gas, the issue that makes it a feedback (rather than a forcing) is the relatively short residence time for water in the atmosphere (around 10 days).” - Source: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water- vapour-feedback-or-forcing/#sthash.c6jK8UpS.dpuf
    8. 8. 5: GHGs stabilize climate • For all of humanity the most abundant of the natural GHG have fluctuated in a steady cycle, mostly affected by plant and animal (organic) materials and solar cycles: o carbon dioxide (CO2) between 200 ppm and 300 ppm. o methane (CH4) between 400 ppb and 700 ppb.
    9. 9. 5: GHGs stabilize our climate • At the cyclic low end, only enough GHG remained free in the atmosphere to allow heat from the sun to keep the equatorial regions free from ice o (the “glacials”, 50,000 to 100,000 years long). • At the cyclic high end, enough heat was trapped that only the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions remained covered by ice o (the “interstadials”, 10,000 to 20,000 years long).
    10. 10. 6: Climate lag • There exists a time lag between when increases in GHG translate to the corresponding full rise in temperature. • This lag may be about thirty to forty years. o The issue of GHG lagging initial orbital temperature increases applies to natural, long-term glacial-interstadial climate change (Steig 2007). The short lag happening in anthropogenic change is opposite.
    11. 11. 6: Climate lag • For instance, the global surface temperature of Earth increased 0.85 degrees Celsius up through the present, yet enough heat was received to guarantee an additional response of 0.64 more degrees Celsius temperature rise over the rest of the 21st Century, even if human agency were to disappear entirely. • (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page5.php, page bottom) • (adjusted to 2014 using http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html).
    12. 12. 7: Causes of the cycle • Cycles of natural climate change are driven largely by the formation of either ice or organic material over large portions of the Earth’s surface. • These primarily fluctuate with tiny distance changes between Earth and Sun in their orbits. • More importantly, these are linked to highly complex and nonlinear feedback mechanisms that appear to center the Earth’s climate at one of two predominant types, the “cold-box” (human) or “hot-box” (dinosaur) Earth. • Humankind has made great progress in studying feedbacks but does not yet fully comprehend them.
    13. 13. 8: The fossil record • Looking backward, remains of 12 (ten to twelve) identifiable glaciation cycles over about the past million years has resided in the world’s tallest glaciers. • Even further back, undisturbed ocean sediments also record a high-resolution record of the past 30 glacial/interglacial cycles over the past 2.58 million years.
    14. 14. 9: Last glacial maximum • The Last Glacial Maximum plateaued 25,000 - 21,000 years before the present after building up glaciers for 50,000 years on a calendar time scale. • The northern third of the continents were covered by glaciers several km thick and Antarctica was both fully covered and surrounded by great ice shelves. • Surface temperature average was depressed by 5 degrees C (9 degrees F). • Montane glaciers were common even in low latitudes. • Species of many kinds that are widely dispersed in the current climate cohabitated during run-up to the LGM.
    15. 15. 10: Global inundations • Three giant freshwater floods with global effects occurred along with many smaller events as global ice (the cryosphere) progressively melted after the last glacial maximum ended 21,000 years ago.  MWP 1A – 14,600 ybp, 500 but perhaps as short as 200 yrs. duration  “Atlantis” Flood - 12,700 ybp, 200 yrs. duration  “Noah” Flood – 8450 ybp, 1 yrs. duration
    16. 16. 11: Three global floods ago • The initial melt water pulse, termed “1A” by scientists, happened around 14,600 years before the present (Weaver 2003, 1709). • The melt waters of almost ten millennia that had collected inside the massive remains of the continental glaciers collapsed and flushed the face of the planet, resulting in a sea-level rise of about 20 meters (66 feet) in less than 5 centuries (Bassett et al 2005).
    17. 17. 11: Three global floods ago • Almost nothing is known of presumed human settlements or civilization from that early period, other than some durable stone artifacts such as manufactured beads and cave carvings and paintings which may little represent the predominant urban cultures. • It is possible that the most ancient and fantastical myths of the Himalayan Vedic oral tradition derive from survivors of this period, which impute a deep and complex history to advanced human civilization, including mythic manned flight, nuclear warfare and possibly extinct elements.
    18. 18. 12: Two global floods ago • A second cataclysmic melt water release followed about 12,700 years ago. • Enough fresh water was released in this event to cause thermohaline (Gulf Stream) slowdown and within 200 years a 1,300 year return to dry, near- ice-age conditions known scientifically as the “Younger Dryas” (Broecker et al 1988, Clarke et al 2003, Teller et al 2002).
    19. 19. 12: Two global floods ago • The cataclysmic water burst caused massive destruction ending megalithic human civilization at the time, may have given rise to the Atlantis mythology. • Some massive and puzzling durable remains from this period have been found above water on today’s islands of Malta and Japan, but far more remain underwater at depths up to roughly 120 meters (394 ft), which defined the ocean surface at sea level 12,700 years ago.
    20. 20. 13: One global flood ago • The last great melt water inundation happened 8450 years ago +- 25 years (D. C. Barber et al. 1999) with the sudden sub-glacial outburst of North American superlake Agassiz, then twice the size of the Caspian Sea. • That megaflood, being the most recent, is the best known and most studied of the three. • It may have provided the basis of the global flood myths of our own proto-civilizations, such as the Babylonian story of Gilgamesh, reflected in biblical Genesis as the story of Noah.
    21. 21. 14: Cultural disruption • These great inundations so catastrophically disrupted human settlements and civilization that except for surviving myths, each abrupt climate disruption was largely forgotten by the humans that came afterward. • Almost no knowledge of previous settlements and civilizations appears to have transmitted across each disruption.
    22. 22. 15: Cultural rebirths • Each period of climate stability between the great meltwater flood pulses allowed human settlement and civilization to arise anew. • Our “own” civilization still largely ascribes the beginnings of “its history” to the rapid rise of agrarian urbanity roughly 6500 BCE, coinciding with conversion of the cities of the Lake Agassiz subglacial outburst survivors into andro-centric city-states (Edward Soja 2000).
    23. 23. 16: New underwater evidence • Marine archeological evidence only discovered recently may prove that human urbanization significantly predated what we consider our earliest civilizations, perhaps even extending back into the last ice age. • Knowledge of such was lost to history through the process of these great global super-floods during the meltdown of the last ice age between 15000 and 8000 years ago.
    24. 24. 17: Physical extinctions: The end of births • Predatory human activity has reinforced the tendency for extinction of large ice age mammals triggered by the progressive meltdown. • Global climate change is vastly accelerating this trend to extend ultimately to about half of known species, which science already describes as the “6th Great Extinction”. Even in the near half- century, about ¼ of species risk extinction, with the other ¼ to follow over a much longer period.
    25. 25. 17: Physical Extinctions: The end of births • The “6th Great Extinction” is accelerating currently from 1000 times the natural rate of extinction. • It will require about 20,000 human generations to recover the past century’s level of biological diversity, if it proves recoverable. • Thus, the life choices exercised by humans during this decade will set the course of natural history for the next seven million years to come.
    26. 26. 18: Hot Earth unknown to humans Prior to known hominid species and even before mammals gained the niches they have occupied until now, Earth’s climate knew several stable eras in much warmer estate, about 10 degrees C warmer than our original. Those hot and steamy climates did not fluctuate much for hundreds of millions of years because no sea ice was able to form.
    27. 27. 19: Hot Earth’s giants • Such an abundance of organic matter grew on Earth during hot, wet periods that the concentration of oxygen (O2) rose to as high as thirty percent (30%) by the late Carboniferous, allowing Mesozoic dinosaurs to “rule” Earth for hundreds of millions of years. • Today O2 is about twenty percent (20%), though less at higher elevations and also less in large, polluted urban areas.
    28. 28. 20: Prior “Cold Earth” eras • To find the last event in geologic time when Earth ended an extended period of ice ages, we must look back before the dinosaurs to the event that finally buried the coal swamps, over 260 million years ago (Ma). • It was then, at the Permo-carboniferous extinction, that 95% of life on Earth perished, opening the 185.5 million year “Hot Earth” Mesozoic era to the early dinosaurs that followed.
    29. 29. 20: Prior “Cold Earth” eras • During the development of life, only one earlier cold era around 460 Ma traded with longer warm eras prior to the onset of the Carboniferous ice ages (Snowball earth). • This early “Cold earth” era at the end of the Ordovician period killed off the first primitive land plants and spurred development of sturdier vascular plants that produced the highest oxygen atmospheres 200 million years later during the middle Pennsylvanian Carboniferous.
    30. 30. 21: Violent benevolence • Short, extremely violent periods of climate crisis appear the norm as Earth’s climate “step-jumps” (with flickering) between the relatively stable climate states. • This actually provides the most favorable conditions for life to diversify, survive and thrive during stable climates that extend as long as possible.
    31. 31. 22: Causes of transition • In the past, direct climate forcings such as slight differences in solar activity or orbital “wobbles” were magnified many times over by the natural interactions of energy inputs involving Earth, GHG, the cryosphere (ice cover), and living organic matter. • Scientists call these magnifications indirect climate forcings or “feedbacks”.
    32. 32. 23: High climate sensitivity • All previous climate changes responded very sensitively to small natural variations, many of them indistinguishable from the level of “background noise” in the data. • Abrupt jumps to new states proceeded upon reaching some complex, critical thresholds. • Because empirical climatology finds climate highly sensitive to changes near the level of background noise, absolutely quantified thresholds are unknown and may be unpredictable.
    33. 33. 24: Brief human control • The trajectories of atmospheric GHG changes experienced during the natural past have already been hugely exceeded by human activity. • This has effectively ended our historical geological epoch, the Holocene. • It initiated a short period (about the 70 years after WWII) in which the climate and related biological systems increasingly fell under direct human control.
    34. 34. 25: Unplanned human direction of Earth systems • Most of the control exerted by humans on Earth systems during this period was and remains unintentional, unplanned and unguided. • With certainty of scientific fact, humanity is firmly and directly shaping the future conditions of the thin spherical surface where all known life resides on Earth.
    35. 35. 26: Most say it’s a sin • Most systems of theological thought consider the crossing of this threshold a terrible transgression of the gods’ or nature’s own controls. o Monotheism: Christianity, Islamic, Hebraic 52% of humans o Polytheism: Hindu, Shinto, Other 27% of humans o Atheism: Buddhist, Shamanist/Animist, Gaia/New Pagan 21%
    36. 36. 27: Large & abrupt climate change • It is possible that human out-gassing of carbon- containing GHG has already set in motion the natural mechanisms that will move the Earth climate into that long-gone “hot-box” regime which is foreign to current life forms, forcing adaptation or extinction. • Scientists now believe natural feedback mechanisms that could accomplish this will wrest control of climate back from humans within the decade unless extreme actions are taken.
    37. 37. 27: Large & abrupt climate change • This seems the natural method that relocated and reopened many ecological niches. • It is implicated in the five mass extinctions of the distant geological past. possibly caused by a drop in sea levels as glaciers formed, then by rising sea levels as glaciers melted Ordovician- Silurian, about 439 Ma little is known about land organisms at the time, though I have visited the very large fish fossils from this era in the University of Michigan Natural History Museum Late Devonian, about 364 Ma Earth’s worst mass extinction, killing 95 percent of all species and an estimated 70 percent of land species such as plants, insects, and vertebrate animals Permian- Triassic, about 251 Ma most likely caused by massive floods of lava erupting from the opening of the central Atlantic End Triassic, 199 to 214 Ma probably caused or aggravated by impact of several-mile-wide asteroid that created the Chicxulub crater now hidden at the edges of the Yucatan Peninsula and beneath the Gulf of Mexico. Cretaceous- Tertiary (K-T), 65.5 Ma http://www.mysterium.com/extinction.html
    38. 38. 28: Extinction Events & Climate In each of the past five mass extinctions, the top trophic level was lost as NPP shrank, e.g. the dinosaurs did not survive the last (K-T) major extinction episode.
    39. 39. 29: Is it our time to go? • Whether the current concentration of GHG, being unnatural, leads to a new sustained foreign climate regime, or causes a violent shorter-term climate disruption that resolves itself into a more familiar pattern, perturbing factors are likely to expire.
    40. 40. 30: The 2° C upper limit • Currently, the scientific consensus believes that only about two degrees Celsius (just over six degrees Fahrenheit) of increase since industrialization in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface can occur without triggering irreversible, catastrophic runaway climate damage (Juniper 2005, 1287). • So far 1.6° C has already been inserted into the climate system, with nearly 1° C already apparent in current measurements (Hansen 2005).
    41. 41. 31: A 5.8° C best guess • The best climate models estimate expected increases to range from one up to ten degrees Celsius, centering on a most likely possibility of 5.8 degrees Celsius global temperature rise. • This is beyond what will send the climate spiraling upward in temperature without any chance for human intervention.
    42. 42. 32: Runaway climate crisis • A three, four, five or more Celsius degree global temperature increase places the climate well into a runaway climate regime outside of human control. • Thus the era of human control of the climate system may effectively end in less than ten years hence, long before significant shafts are seen. • Feedbacks accelerating such a runaway climate crisis include the following, theses 33 to 41:
    43. 43. Feedbacks Summary 33-41 • 33: More harsh weather • 34: Biological decay modifier • 35: From reflector to collector • 36: Blooming spikes of GHG • 37: Rapid sea level rise • 38: Repeated sea incursions • 39: Runaway sea level rise • 40: Reflective aerosol reductions • 41: Fires shift land to upward climate forcing
    44. 44. 33: More harsh weather • The arrivals of super-strength hurricanes and typhoons around the world in 2005 may have signaled to many people the concrete beginning of great consequences from global heat buildup that will affect every part of human civilization, and indeed the entire biosphere on Earth. • Changes in cloud formation and rainfall patterns may have counterintuitive effects because H20 is the strongest greenhouse gas, both a solar reflector and collector.
    45. 45. 34: Biological decay modifier • Rapidly melting tundra lands expose ancient frozen organic matter to sudden decay into GHG with potential to magnify human-caused global warming by up to a factor of 800.
    46. 46. 35: From reflector to collector • Conversions of ice and snow covers into ocean melt water and waterlogged soils feed back perversely. • Ice and snow reflect 90% of incoming solar radiation back into space, absorbing only 10%. • Water and soils reflect only 10% of incoming sunlight back into space, and absorb the other 90%.
    47. 47. 36: Blooming spikes of GHG • Expect massive blooms and die-offs with biological decomposition of existing organic matter into methane and carbon dioxide as food pyramids collapse, oceans expand and newly inundate productive areas. • Heat redistributed below the sea surface will eventually deteriorate massive hydrate formations, first affecting shallower arctic and Antarctic formations.
    48. 48. 37: Rapid sea level rise • From six to around twenty feet of sea level rise may be expected shortly after this century, depending on the unknown velocity of lags in the unprecedented climate shift we are undergoing. • Science is inherently conservative about predicting these, but past examples of natural shifts this large have been discovered with a decadal range. Decadal means on the order of ten years’ duration (Hansen 2007). /
    49. 49. 38: Repeated sea incursions • These permanent increases in sea level will generally arrive riding upon the incursions of violent seawater storm surges, sometimes exacerbated by high tides. • Currently, these storm surges can reach a height of about 28 feet, as witnessed during landfall of Katrina, a strong Category 4 hurricane in 2005. • Future storms will involve both greater and lesser strengths, so proportionately higher surges are possible.
    50. 50. 39: Runaway sea level rise • If the Earth is committed to a runaway climate change state over the next decades, ultimate sea level rise of 254 feet will occur when the last surface ice dissipates, submerging urban agglomerations that contain about half of U.S. population today. • The first ½ meter to 2 m of this rise does not appear likely to be felt until the later 21st Century. Current rise rate is about 3 mm per year global average, and it is increasing (IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers, p.11 and 13). • Massive hardship for coastal communities will include border and resource pressures in nations most flooded, further decreased global primary production of nutrients (NPP) with deteriorating or destroyed local ecosystems.
    51. 51. 40: Reflective aerosol reductions • Loss of the northern hemisphere’s reflective aerosols will quickly escalate surface temperatures there by several more degrees Celsius within a matter of years. This is possible when: • Major pollution-emitting steam and steel/pulp/cement plants shut down due to decreased economic activity or replacement by less polluting facilities. • Oil-fired internal combustion engines shut off.
    52. 52. 41: Fires shift land to upward climate forcing • Fires in the remaining forests of the southern hemisphere, and as seen in Greece and CA recently likely also in the north, will become impossible to control at some future point. • Results include a net climate forcing upward of about one additional watt per meter squared in those areas – a 50% bump compared to the excess heat the globe is dealing with today.
    53. 53. 42: Alternative Path • An alternative path toward limiting global warming exists but is not yet being pursued. • Even those nations that have adopted the Kyoto Protocol that meet their treaty obligations would only accomplish a small (about 6%) “pilot” demonstration of the kinds of reductions in GHG emissions that will be required to stabilize the Earth atmosphere at an increased but survivable rate of heat gain. • US proposals, including California's, are all slower than Kyoto in effecting GHG reductions.
    54. 54. The unwillingness of the United States of America to ratify the Kyoto Protocol robbed it of moral high ground necessary for possible hegemonic success of global greenhouse gas reductions. 43: Leadership Was Lost
    55. 55. The cost and difficulty of accessing an alternative path increases with each addition of GHG to the atmosphere and thus with every passing day. Technologies and practices necessary to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with global climate all exist, but entrenched economic and political interests have so far prevented planning and implementation. 44: Technically feasible
    56. 56. An encouraging exception to thesis 44 above was a nearly complete 45- year effort by the nation of Brazil to eliminate its dependence on imported oil resources by cultivating renewable energy via sugar cane colonies to supply transportation ethanol in sufficient quantities. 45: An Alternative Demonstrated
    57. 57. There is no single strategy that will accomplish the desired reductions of GHG emissions (carbon mitigation initiative), but success is possible by concurrently implementing a few major or thousands of minor initiatives over the next decade and following them through (Socolow & Lam 2007) while migrating and adapting as needed over a much longer period. 46: A Few or Many?
    58. 58. Initiatives include treating remaining reserves of fossil organics as raw materials for closed-loop electro-chemical processes, rather than as fuel to be oxidized in the open atmosphere. 47: Develop alternative power and sequestration
    59. 59. Initiatives include replacing inefficient processes with ones that conserve energy to a much greater extent. Such strategies typically pay for themselves many times over but also require substantial upfront capital reinvestment and manifold changes in human practices. 48: Implement Conservation
    60. 60. Initiatives include a redefinition of the current value paradigm tied to mass good scarcity to a new paradigm of value based on diverse, dignified individuation. 49: A New Value Paradigm
    61. 61. Initiatives will generally require public sector political support for artificially enhancing the economics of renewable energy resources and penalizing the emission of carbon- containing gases, against which stakeholders naturally react (e.g. Texas Governor Rick Perry, 2008). 50: Strong Public Policy Required
    62. 62. These initiatives lead to radically different future lifestyles from those that people aspire to today, and will exacerbate tensions on existing investments in both technological infrastructure and human institutions. If implemented within the next decade to control the global warming phenomenon, resulting societal changes may create large intergenerational and international challenges within the span of a single human lifetime. 51: Dangerous Change Velocity
    63. 63. These initiatives provide an opportunity to advocate for greater human equity but risk the perils of warfare in a period of fluid movement and competitive change (Schwarz & Randall 2003). 52: Risks of Change http://www.e-ir.info/2013/07/13/u-s-national-security-and-climate-change/ http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/planet- 2/report/2006/3/an-abrupt-climate-change-scena.pdf
    64. 64. Current levels of human population and activity guarantee that the next “ice age” has been postponed, perhaps indefinitely. Even if humans became extinct today, it would take many tens of thousands of years for the climate to settle back to a regime wherein the next ice age could proceed. 53: The Change is Happening
    65. 65. The use of money as measure of value rather than simply a medium of exchange provides false security today and in the world to come. An innate focus on the collection of money wealth is misdirecting the life’s work of the vast majority of laborers today. 54: Love of Money Evil Still
    66. 66. Following current practices for just ten more years will effectively set Earth on the path to runaway climate change, without possibility of intervention (Socolow & Lam 2007). Runaway or abrupt climate change has potential for massive resource disruptions and rapid destabilization of the world geopolitical stage (Schwartz & Randall 2003). 54: Love of Money Evil Still
    67. 67. A better measure of the economic value of energy may be DollarPounds/kWh. This is some multiple of the dollar price responding to supply and the pounds of carbon or carbon dioxide equivalent GWP responding to the threat of greenhouse enhancement. 55: The Old Value Paradigm is Not an Option
    68. 68. The new carbon economy is based not only on the scarcity of valuable goods but on avoiding the danger of additional atmospheric carbon-bearing gases continually blanketing excess heat energy. 56: A New Low-Carbon Economy (Braungart & William McDonough published a book in 2002 called Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things) Web sites: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cradle-to-cradle_design, http://www.c2ccertified.org/.
    69. 69. Recasting the problem of global warming as one of controlling an atmospheric energy surplus rather than one of reducing material emissions to may lead to novel means for capture, storage and use of energy potentials to help humanity manage Earth systems. 57: Global Energy Surplus
    70. 70. The free market is able to accomplish much, but not very much that is guided, directed, targeted, focused or planned, though it try. This is the reason that war planning often trumps the free market and why in crisis dictatorial powers more easily arise. 58: The Free Market
    71. 71. 59: Adaptation = Planning • Planning must expand in theoretical scope to include the aim of secure development. • The Planner’s triangle (Campbell) must become the Planner’s pyramid, triangulating development at the center of four competing planning motives.
    72. 72. Adaptation to the effects of the climate crisis will likely cost more than the alternative path of avoidance/mitigation, so to the extent these remain effective, they are mandatory. 59: Adaptation = Planning
    73. 73. Also, new and replacement development must incorporate the state of the art in climate change avoidance/mitigation, to delay the natural magnification of anthropogenic causes. (Rosenzweig et al. 2007) 59: Adaptation = Planning
    74. 74. • Climate adaptation planning must include all of the lessons learned in the past century of planning experience, ie. 59: Adaptation = Planning Public participation in transparent processes Muddling through on the best known information Advocacy for social equity, environmental protection, economic development and long term security for those who cannot advocate themselves Primarily improve quality of life by increasing the amount of free time and money people enjoy to interact with chosen others
    75. 75. Climate adaptation planning must develop a discreet, concrete, interlocking and self-reinforcing system to displace suburban development with effective life cycle development. 59: Adaptation = Planning
    76. 76. To avert the ambitions of the few at any extreme of various spectrums, the yearnings of the population of the world for individual freedoms and self determination must be met with real, participatory democracy supported by effective public education, enabled by modern communication technology and respecting self- chosen social structures, adjudicated without resort to war powers. 60: Satyagraha Training is Mandatory
    77. 77. Any initiative for democratic action must allow for completely transparent information to help the people make decisions to the best of their ability or to opt out of voting on matters they feel ill- equipped to address. 61: Free and Accurate Information
    78. 78. Information cannot bear the individual bias of sources that fund its production or dissemination, but must conform to the peer-reviewed standards of scientific inquiry and journalistic integrity. 62: Peer Review Essential
    79. 79. Intellectual property rights may need to be reviewed, revised or waived for the greater good or the definition of fair use expanded to effectively disseminate appropriate technologies and needed information at least cost to points of application throughout the world. Science, engineering and arts communities may require alternative forms of compensation in lieu of that based upon copyright ownership. 63: Capital and Compensation
    80. 80. Communities dedicated to public service may wish to consider reinvesting all available revenues toward solving the various problems of relief, adaptation and stabilization as early as possible. 64: Revenue Redirection
    81. 81. Now exists an opportunity to define a new “greatest generation” in whose debt all future humans will live, even as those who struggled with the evils of domineering conquest during the past century are now remembered by those of us that survive them. 65: Today’s Greatest
    82. 82. This new “greatest generation” will triumph chiefly in setting forth an Adaptation Plan for Climate Change with an implementation plan identifying resources and proposing a schedule. 65: Today’s Greatest
    83. 83. The common appellation “global warming” or its scientific euphemism “climate change” serves to enwrap many codependent and interrelated effects, which operate to diverse ends in different places on Earth. All of them result from the global uptake of heat in the biosphere. 66: A Global Variety
    84. 84. At the Earth and climate sciences end of the spectrum, this phenomenon appears complex, but from a human perspective it is really as simple as this: More carbon in the air means more of the sun’s heat gets trapped on Earth’s surface, messing it up. 67: A Complex Simplicity
    85. 85. Humans must stop burning (oxidizing) carbon-based things in the open atmosphere as rapidly as possible. 68: It All Comes to This
    86. 86. Brief Intermission • You have been patient to follow me through 68 of these 95 theses thus far. • Please take a short break. • If you like, the book excerpt clickable here transcripts the clear presentation in 1959 to the oil industry of why “global heating” is a reason to retire fossil fuels.
    87. 87. 69: Dr. Keeling’s Curve The famous “Keeling curve” has been issuing an increasingly dire warning to the scientific community since the early 1960s. Dr. David Keeling produced careful measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide at the top of Mona Loa in Hawaii every four hours since 1958. The resulting curve revealed the precision of his measurements, recording the respiration of global plant life breathing in and out day and night. It also revealed the annual pattern of northern hemisphere carbon dioxide being absorbed into plants during the summer growing season and being released back into the atmosphere as organic matter died off and decayed in winter.
    88. 88. The “Keeling curve” within only a few years contained enough detail to confirm the theory that the overall concentration of carbon dioxide was increasing each year in an accelerating trend. This pattern has continued to the present, and trend projection indicates that by at least 2050, CO2 will have reached a clear danger zone of 450 ppm and increase from there. The yellow trend line shows the path we are on today, with the lowest possible long term stabilization measure above 650 ppm. 70: Keeling Curve Projected
    89. 89. The international community accepts the reality of global warming, and is pressuring American leadership. 71: International Agreement
    90. 90. The UN’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its AR1 report in 1990 noted much uncertainty but concluded a best estimate of global average surface temperature increase during the 21st Century of about 6°C . 72: IPCC Initial Assessment Report (AR)
    91. 91. The IPCC in its AR2 in 1995 concluded climate “has changed over the past century” and “balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”. It also concluded that global average surface temperatures could increase by from 1 to 3.5 °C by the end of the century. 73: IPCC Report AR2
    92. 92. The IPCC in its AR3 in 2001 finally concluded that most of the change in global climate that had occurred to that date had been caused by human activities. It also concluded that global average surface temperatures could increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C by the end of the century, translating to much greater increases at the polar latitudes and lesser changes in equatorial regions. 74: IPCC Report AR3
    93. 93. The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report in 2007, though much of the working group material was completed and submitted by 2005, reported a likely century temperature rise of 2.4°C to 6.4°C. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” 75: IPCC Report AR4
    94. 94. Even a best-case world scenario continuing to use fossil fuels, has become clearly dangerous. Only a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) allows a likely case below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures (IPCC AR5, 2014. p.8). In other words, we’re up against it now. 76: A Shortened Timeframe in IPCC AR5, 2014
    95. 95. Advanced American climate scientists still maintained the assumption that global climate is controllable at this point, and a critical threshold (turning point) wouldn’t be crossed for about a decade from 2005. Among these were NASA’s James E. Hansen, now retired from Columbia University. Unfortunately, it’s now 2015. 77: Scientists react: Americans say “Can-Do”
    96. 96. The most advanced thinkers looking comprehensively at the scientific, political and personal realities of energy requirements in the U.S., India and China had already concluded that a strategy of prevention or mitigation is too late for effective implementation, and that the only option remaining open for preserving civilization is adaptation. 77: Scientists react: Europeans say “Too Late”
    97. 97. It is likely that climate change will trigger migrations on a scale never before experienced in the development of Homo sapiens. Early academic studies have acknowledged the possibility of around 3 million environmental refugees per year between now and 2050. Theses 79 through 82 discuss the range of possible human responses to climate change. 78: The Population Reacts
    98. 98. Philosophical reactions to climate change: The population may choose to react to catastrophic climate change in several ways. Nihilism and fatalism will become great attractions, because neither requires effort to change behavior or perform personal sacrifice. 79: The Do-Nothing Response
    99. 99. Hedonism and spirituality/religiosity will offer anesthetic responses to catastrophic climate change if the lack of good faith efforts toward GHG mitigation over the last decade indeed prove insufficient, though conditions will continually trend toward “difficult for most people to obtain true bliss.” 80: Anesthetic Responses
    100. 100. Abandonment of the Earth’s surface may become a functional response for some few people who attempt to maintain elements of civilization against inhospitable conditions, living in protected spaces either below ground, in the ocean or above the Earth’s atmosphere. Until nothing remains for us other than to survive and attempt repopulation of the planet, let us cooperatively grow in humanity toward one another while stabilizing the atmosphere with as small an increase in global mean temperature as possible. 81: Reactionary Responses
    101. 101. Because the vast majority of people on Earth are likely to feel failed by their governments, religious affiliations and even fathers if climate changes quickly exceed the human grasp, one of the major impediments to climate crisis relief will be distrust of all prior civic and religious institutions, leading to nearly complete societal breakdown and horrible personal and state conflicts for water resources, arable land and appropriate seed stocks. 82: Vindictive Responses
    102. 102. Ironically, some changes of consequence will occur before any physical effects of truly catastrophic climate change materialize. SEC rules for publicly traded companies require disclosure of any potential liabilities that can be foreseen. Global warming is one of those liabilities, and the first corporation admitting liability will open a floodgate of legal actions that may lead them to seek federal protection limiting their liability (Hancock 2005). The Enron corporate meltdown of $65 billion in assets showed the gravity with which stockholder trust can be affected. Enron also showed that governance exerted by large investor groups such as pension funds cannot avert such a catastrophe from taking its course. 83: SEC Disclosure Rules
    103. 103. To avoid an industry-wide meltdown that would gravely limit the future of the City of Houston, Harris County, the State of Texas and the United States of America, fossil-fuel driven profits should be voluntarily split by the governors of each company between takings necessary for continuing conventional operations as the market for petroleum shrinks in a post-peak and carbon- sensitive economy, and holdings for a public trust to be managed entirely by direct (apolitical) global democratic action. 84: Voluntary Settlement Peter Barnes: http://www.earthinc.org/earth_atmospheric_trust.php
    104. 104. A global public trust must result from a binding voluntary settlement agreed and mutually coerced by all stakeholders whereby constituent contributors place into public trust a fair measure relative to the responsible amounts of GHG emissions, from primarily fossil-fuel driven profits in the industrialized world, and forest land and agricultural land uses in the rural world. Tragedy of the Commons: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full 85: Living Earth Trust?
    105. 105. This directly democratic and global public trust would provide necessary resources for mitigating actions in the adaptation to the current climate. Commenters have balked at this suggestion as too grandiose and prone to corruption. Other alternatives? 86: A Democratic Trust
    106. 106. An incomplete price signal is furthering use of fossil fuels well beyond the “safety limit” of 350 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. As long as fossil fuels remain artificially cheap and profitable, their use will rise. Correcting this market failure requires their price to account for their true social costs. 87: Market-driven Solution
    107. 107. The Cap and Trade approach of the Montreal Protocol (1988) has begun to heal the ozone hole above Antarctica. Being the only successful existing model for international cooperation in the reduction of substances introduced to the atmosphere, Cap and Trade has been considered for greenhouse gases. 88: Carbon Permit Trading
    108. 108. A Cap and Trade solution requires the creation of a new market for trading credits that allow an entity to emit a set amount of a certain type of greenhouse gases. Initial attempts to legislate this allowed too many loopholes by grandfathering large polluters, and no body exists that can create a global market. 89: Cap and Trade
    109. 109. With the failure of Cap and Trade, a Carbon Tax was suggested to add a significant and slowly rising price on top of the other costs built into the price of fossil fuels. A taxation approach is also difficult to implement globally and is subject to political interference in individual states, reducing its effectiveness. 90: Carbon Tax
    110. 110. Carbon Fee and Dividend is the policy proposal created by Citizens’ Climate Lobby (CCL) to internalize the costs of burning carbon-based fuels (https://citizensclimatelobby.org/carbon-fee-and-dividend/). This is the only solution put forth to date that empowers a virtuous cycle of innovation without regulatory involvement or government entanglement. 91: Carbon Fee and Dividend
    111. 111. Carbon Fee Trust Fund revenues could be collected and distributed by the same thousand or so entities which initially owe the fees, potentially sustaining big oil, gas and coal companies as consumer revenue stream providers while they reposition hydrocarbons ASAP to more valuable closed-cycle feed stocks and up- cyclable end products. 92: Carbon Fee Trust Fund
    112. 112. A. Immediate moratorium on any new coal plants lacking full CO2 sequestration. 93: Strong U.S. Public Policies needed immediately - #1
    113. 113. B. Utility rewards transformed so as to encourage increased profitability as they achieve improved user efficiencies. 94: Strong U.S. Public Policies needed immediately - #2
    114. 114. C. Fair and gradually rising price on carbon emissions imposed, to encourage a reduction in GHG emissions, with price determined by the market as it is subjected to full democratic consideration of economic, environmental, equity & security issues 95: Strong U.S. Public Policies needed immediately - #3
    115. 115. Thank you for your critical discussion of these 95 theses. Life as we know it is on the line, and how we respond this year will largely determine its fate. suckow@hotmail.com --Paul M. Suckow, PhD Candidate, TSU, Houston, TX, USA Epilogue:
    116. 116. Selected References Barber, D. C. et al. (1999). Nature 400, 344. Bassett, S. E., G. A. Milne, J. X. Mitrovica, and P. U. Clark (2005). “Ice Sheet and Solid Earth Influences on Far-Field Sea-Level Histories”. Science 309: 925-928. Broecker, W. S. et al. (1988). Paleoceanography 3, 1. Bruntland, G. H. (1987). Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Clarke, Garry, David Leverington, James Teller, Arthur Dyke. (2003). “Superlakes, Megafloods, and Abrupt Climate Change”. Science 301(5635): 922-923. Füssel, H.M. (2007). “Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons.” Sustainability Science, 2: 265-275. Hancock, E. E. (2005). Red Dawn, Blue Thunder, Purple Rain: Corporate Risk of Liability for Global Climate Change and the SEC Disclosure Dilemma. Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, 17(2), 233-251. Hansen, J. E. (2005-2008). Various papers and writings available at http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/. Hardin, G. (1968). “The Tragedy of the Commons”. Science 162 (3859): 1243-1248. Houghton, J. (1997). Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (Second ed.). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. Juniper, T. (2005). "Global warming must be limited to 2{degrees}C, scientists say." BMJ 331(7528): 1287. Prentice et al. (2000), Harrison et al. (2001), Bigelow et al. (2003) and Pickett et al. (2004). http://www.bridge.bris.ac.uk/resources/BIOMES_data/BIOME_v4.2.htm Rosenzweig, C., D.C. Major, K. Demong, C. Stanton, R. Horton, and M. Stults. (2007). “Managing climate change risks in New York City's water system: Assessment and adaptation planning.” Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Global Change, 12, 1391-1409, doi:10.1007/s11027-006-9070-5.
    117. 117. Selected References, cont. • Continued: Schwartz, P., & Randall, D. (2003). An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. Washington DC: U.S. Dept. of Defense. Socolow, R. H., & Lam, S. H. (2007). Good enough tools for global warming policy making. Phil.Trans.R.Soc. A, 10(1098), /rsta.2006.1961. Steig, Eric. (2007). http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/the-lag-between-temp-and-co2/ Teller, E. in ENERGY and MAN, a Symposium, pages 53-72. (1960). “Energy Patterns of the Future.” Teller, J.T., D.W. Leverington, J. D. Mann. (2002). Quat. Sci. Rev. 21, 879. The Keeling Curve website at Scripps Institute of Oceanography, U.C. San Diego. https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ Weaver, Andrew J., et al. (2003). “Meltwater Pulse 1A from Antarctica as a Trigger of the Bølling-Allerød Warm Interval”. Science Vol. 299. no. 5613, 14 March, pp. 1709 – 1713. As my time and resources allow, I will try to provide an updated and expanded reference list in addition to the basic reading list provided above. An excellent introductory 2012 MIT report on Urban Climate Adaptation Planning contained a good reference list at: http://web.mit.edu/jcarmin/www/urbanadapt/Urban%20Adaptation%20Report%20FINAL.pdf

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