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(+351) 917681857
(+351) 213 922 727
PROGRAMA
SCANNING THE ENVIRONMENT
- Prospectiva/Foresight: Princípios e Conceitos Base
- Environmental Scanning - introdução e conceitos operacionais
- Conceitos e Frameworks para compreender um novo contexto empresarial e
industrial
- Trabalhando com Forças Globais, Consumer Trends e Modelos de Negócio
- O Método dos Cenários - Simulação de futuros possíveis

STRATEGIZING TO THE CORE
- A Estratégia num Contexto Global e Incerto
- O Ambiente Interno: Recursos, Capacidades e Competências Distintivas
- Novas competências e ferramentas para lidar com um novo ambiente
- Ferramentas de Gestão Estratégica e respetiva articulação com os Cenários

LEADING IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
- Ruptura de Paradigma e a Emergência da Liderança
- Liderar na Era da Turbulência
- O Líder, a Comunicação e a Gestão da Mudança
- Liderança e Gestão: diferenças e complementaridades
- Liderar a Cultura de Desconfiança em Portugal
Uma experiência única,
interactiva e multisensorial
Prospectiva
Foresight
Ciência. Arte. Prática
Lógica. Intuição. Experimentação
Antecipação. Acção. Apropriação
PRINCÍPIOS DA PROSPECTIVA
O Longo Prazo e a
“Visão Longa”

Retrospectiva e
Visão periférica

Múltiplas Perspectivas

Out-of-the box thinking

Jogo dos Actores

Visão Global e
Sistémica

System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
Megatrends &
Global Forces
…
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in
Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some
Developing Countries
• Increasing migration streams
• Demographic shifts

DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
• Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
• Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
• Virtual business worlds

NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
• Globally, mobility increases
• Barriers to mobility increase
• Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
• New vehicle concepts – new drive
technologies

UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
• IT-revolution continues
• Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces, new
surfaces
• Neuro sciences, “AI”, and robotics
• Transparent society: Surveillance & control

GLOBALISATION 2 . 0
• Shift to Asia (China and India) and a new role
for the West
• Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
• Globalised Flow of Capital, (+ goods, services,
people, information)

KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
• Education and learning as a basis
• Innovation as a key driver and competition
factor
• New global knowledge elite – the creative
class

CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
• Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
• Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
• Flexible, interactive work structures

NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
• The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
• Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
• Sustainable consumption in the West (Eco
Chic, Moral Commerce)

URBANISATION
• Megacities grow strongly
• Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
• New forms of residence, living, and
participation

WATER CHALLENGES
• Only a small fraction is freshwater
• Aggravation by consequences of climate
change + Urbanisation and water shortage
• Water recycling (“Zero discharge”)
• Measurement of water quality
• Advanced water treatment
• Intelligent Waters Grids?

Megatrends
Global Forces

TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
• Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
• Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
• NBIC-convergence

BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
• Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
• New value-adding chains (customer
integration, coopetition)
• Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to new
markets

ENERGY AND RESOURCE
REVERSAL

• Strategic resource scarcities (fossil fuels,
freshwater, minerals, metals)
• Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
• Revolution in energy efficiency
• Decentralised energy supply

CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• CO2-discharges and global rise of
temperatures
• Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
• Clean technologies
• Corporate responsibility increases

CULTURAL DIVERSITY
• Plural ways of life between tradition and today
• Value systems compete globally
• Emergence of hybrid culture

NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER
• China and India join the ranks of world powers
• Crisis of Western democracies
• Russia’s renaissance
• Africa awakes

HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE
AND CONVERGING

• Health tech – human enhancement ,
Biomedical self-design, health style
• New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
• New converging markets (food,
pharmarmaceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)

GROWING THREATS TO
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
• Global risk society
• Festering cultural conflicts & failed states
• Global terrorism
• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction

INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A
NEW STAGE
• Individualism, a global phenomenon
• Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
• From mass markets to micro markets
• Self-sufficiency and DIY-economy

WOMEN ON THE RISE
• Women are integrated into the working world
• “Female” soft skills become more important
• Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
• Work-life balance
… Consumer,
Market &
Technology
Trends
www.trendwatching.com
Planeamento
por Cenários
Aprender a Lidar e a tomar Decisões
em contextos de Incerteza
A Estratégia
num Contexto
Incerto em
Aceleração
“Companies fail to create the future not because they fail to
predict it but because they fail to imagine it”
Gary Hamel
STRATEGIC AGILITY
Perceive!

Execute!

Commit!
Source: Doz, Kosonen, 2006, 2008.
STRATEGIC AGILITY
Scoping:

Para Onde
Olhar?

Scanning:

Como Olhar?

Interpreting:
O que
significam
os dados?

Organizing:

Como desenvolver a Vigilância

Leading:

Uma Agenda para a Acção

Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.

Probing:

O Que
Explorar
de forma mais
Aprofundada?

Acting:
O que fazer com
estes Insights?
LIDERANÇA
em contextos
de Incerteza
APROPRIAÇÃO

Estrutura de Coordenação
(da hierarquia à rede)

Sistema de
Relacionamento
entre Actores
Cultura
Liderança
(Estratégia)
Emergência da Liderança, da Estrutura em Rede e
da Cultura de Equipa

Envolvente Estável

Envolvente Incerta e Turbulenta

Ruptura de Paradigma

Integração pela
Hierarquia

Integração pelo
Mercado

Gestão

Integração pela
Rede

Liderança
Inscrições:
http://www1.idefe.pt/cursos/elci
(+351) 917681857
(+351) 213 922 727

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Estratégia e Liderança em Contextos de Incerteza ISEG_IDEFE

  • 2. PROGRAMA SCANNING THE ENVIRONMENT - Prospectiva/Foresight: Princípios e Conceitos Base - Environmental Scanning - introdução e conceitos operacionais - Conceitos e Frameworks para compreender um novo contexto empresarial e industrial - Trabalhando com Forças Globais, Consumer Trends e Modelos de Negócio - O Método dos Cenários - Simulação de futuros possíveis STRATEGIZING TO THE CORE - A Estratégia num Contexto Global e Incerto - O Ambiente Interno: Recursos, Capacidades e Competências Distintivas - Novas competências e ferramentas para lidar com um novo ambiente - Ferramentas de Gestão Estratégica e respetiva articulação com os Cenários LEADING IN UNCERTAIN TIMES - Ruptura de Paradigma e a Emergência da Liderança - Liderar na Era da Turbulência - O Líder, a Comunicação e a Gestão da Mudança - Liderança e Gestão: diferenças e complementaridades - Liderar a Cultura de Desconfiança em Portugal
  • 5. Ciência. Arte. Prática Lógica. Intuição. Experimentação Antecipação. Acção. Apropriação
  • 6. PRINCÍPIOS DA PROSPECTIVA O Longo Prazo e a “Visão Longa” Retrospectiva e Visão periférica Múltiplas Perspectivas Out-of-the box thinking Jogo dos Actores Visão Global e Sistémica System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
  • 8. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE • Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries • Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries • Increasing migration streams • Demographic shifts DIGITAL LIFESTYLE • Web 2.0: New media find their way into our everyday lives • Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real • Virtual business worlds NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY • Globally, mobility increases • Barriers to mobility increase • Transport infrastructures are upgraded/extended • New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE • IT-revolution continues • Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces, new surfaces • Neuro sciences, “AI”, and robotics • Transparent society: Surveillance & control GLOBALISATION 2 . 0 • Shift to Asia (China and India) and a new role for the West • Global strategies, customised to places and regions • Globalised Flow of Capital, (+ goods, services, people, information) KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY • Education and learning as a basis • Innovation as a key driver and competition factor • New global knowledge elite – the creative class CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD • Advances in automation (from the sector of production to the sectors of service and knowledge) • Highly flexible working practices (anytime, anywhere) • Flexible, interactive work structures NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS • The Third World participates in economic wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid) • Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia • Sustainable consumption in the West (Eco Chic, Moral Commerce) URBANISATION • Megacities grow strongly • Development of adapted infrastructure solutions • New forms of residence, living, and participation WATER CHALLENGES • Only a small fraction is freshwater • Aggravation by consequences of climate change + Urbanisation and water shortage • Water recycling (“Zero discharge”) • Measurement of water quality • Advanced water treatment • Intelligent Waters Grids? Megatrends Global Forces TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE • Information and nanotechnology to be key drivers of convergence • Stimuli in many areas of application (medical science, energy, materials) • NBIC-convergence BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS • Open systems and networks: Limits of industries, markets, and businesses dissolve • New value-adding chains (customer integration, coopetition) • Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to new markets ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL • Strategic resource scarcities (fossil fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals) • Use of alternative sources of energy and renewable resources • Revolution in energy efficiency • Decentralised energy supply CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS • CO2-discharges and global rise of temperatures • Increase of environmental problems in emerging and developing countries • Clean technologies • Corporate responsibility increases CULTURAL DIVERSITY • Plural ways of life between tradition and today • Value systems compete globally • Emergence of hybrid culture NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER • China and India join the ranks of world powers • Crisis of Western democracies • Russia’s renaissance • Africa awakes HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING • Health tech – human enhancement , Biomedical self-design, health style • New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically modified food, novel food) • New converging markets (food, pharmarmaceuticals, drugs, cosmetics) GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY • Global risk society • Festering cultural conflicts & failed states • Global terrorism • Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE • Individualism, a global phenomenon • Changing relationship patterns: Few strong, many loose relationships • From mass markets to micro markets • Self-sufficiency and DIY-economy WOMEN ON THE RISE • Women are integrated into the working world • “Female” soft skills become more important • Participation as market actors: Defining influence on product and service standards • Work-life balance
  • 11.
  • 12. Planeamento por Cenários Aprender a Lidar e a tomar Decisões em contextos de Incerteza
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 16.
  • 17. “Companies fail to create the future not because they fail to predict it but because they fail to imagine it” Gary Hamel
  • 19. STRATEGIC AGILITY Scoping: Para Onde Olhar? Scanning: Como Olhar? Interpreting: O que significam os dados? Organizing: Como desenvolver a Vigilância Leading: Uma Agenda para a Acção Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006. Probing: O Que Explorar de forma mais Aprofundada? Acting: O que fazer com estes Insights?
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 23. APROPRIAÇÃO Estrutura de Coordenação (da hierarquia à rede) Sistema de Relacionamento entre Actores Cultura Liderança (Estratégia)
  • 24. Emergência da Liderança, da Estrutura em Rede e da Cultura de Equipa Envolvente Estável Envolvente Incerta e Turbulenta Ruptura de Paradigma Integração pela Hierarquia Integração pelo Mercado Gestão Integração pela Rede Liderança