Let´s have a good conversation about systems, system thinking, kanban and flow parameters.

1. Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli
Whiskey, Sushi, Systems and Flow

2. Agenda
•Whiskey
–Flow numbers at my bar
•Sushi
–Queue and wait time at a Japanese restaurant
•More whiskey
–System, System boundaries and Stable systems
•Flights and Traffic Jam
–Stabilizing the system and System Thinking
•Closing Thoughts

3. Agenda
•Whiskey
–Flow numbers at my bar
•Sushi
–Queue and wait time at a Japanese restaurant
•More whiskey
–System, System boundaries and Stable systems
•Flights and Traffic Jam
–Stabilizing the system and System Thinking
•Closing Thoughts

4. Flow numbers at my bar

5. WIP
•The number of bottles in the bar. Bottles that have been opened, but are not yet empty.

6. Lead time
•The time between the bottle is added to the bar and the bottle comes out of the bar (empty).

7. Cycle time
•The time between two successive empty bottles leaving the bar

8. Throughput
•The rate at which bottles are passing through the bar.

9. Batch size
•The size of the bottles.

10. My bar…

11. I was really interested in measuring a whisky bottle average lead time in my bar...

12. “The average number of work items in a stable system is equal to their average completion rate, multiplied by their average time in the system.” John Little, 1961

13. WIP = Throughput x Lead time

14. Please help me out...

15. 12 bottles...

16. an average of 6 bottles per year…

17. What is the average lead time for a bottle of whiskey?

18. (a) 2 months (b) 3 months (c) 6 months (d) 1 year (e) 2 years
What is the average lead time for a bottle of whiskey?

19. WIP = Throughput x Lead time

20. WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b = 6 b / year x Lead time

21. WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b = 6 b / year x Lead time
Lead time = 2 years

22. How to reduce lead time?

24. Doing
(Limit)
Done
To Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Lead Time

25. Agenda
•Whiskey
–Flow numbers at my bar
•Sushi
–Queue and wait time at a Japanese restaurant
•More whiskey
–System, System boundaries and Stable systems
•Flights and Traffic Jam
–Stabilizing the system and System Thinking
•Closing Thoughts

26. Queue and wait time

27. very hungry

28. one temaki

29. more than 30 minutes

30. very frustrated

31. “The total wait time for a given item is the sum of its queue time plus its working time.” Paulo Caroli, 2013 (at AgileTrendsSP)

32. Total Wait = Queue time + Work time

33. Different kind of work items

34. Different kind of work items
10 minutes
1 minute

35. After a few months, I went back to the restaurant and took a look at their kanban system. I noticed that all orders follow a single queue.

36. Single Queue

37. What is the wait time?

38. Single Queue

39. Queue time between 30 and 40 minutes 4 large orders; 1 being worked on, 3 in the queue; each large order takes 10 minutes

40. Work time 1 minute a small order takes 1 minute

41. Total Wait = Queue time (between 30 and 40 minutes) + Work time (1 minute)

42. How to reduce total wait time?

43. Two Queues

44. What is the new wait time for my small order? (small order takes priority)

45. In Dev
Validate
Backlog
10
5
9
31
17
21
4
7
5
12
Specify
Execute
Done
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
Bugs
T

46. Agenda
•Whiskey
–Flow numbers at my bar
•Sushi
–Queue and wait time at a Japanese restaurant
•More whiskey
–System, System boundaries and Stable systems
•Flights and Traffic Jam
–Stabilizing the system and System Thinking
•Closing Thoughts

47. System

52. “The average number of work items in a stable system is equal to their average completion rate, multiplied by their average time in the system.” John Little, 1961

53. What is a system?

54. A system is an arrangement of parts within the system’s boundaries which interact with each other, cooperating in a process to accomplish a goal.

55. A system is an arrangement of parts within the system’s boundaries which interact with each other, cooperating in a process to accomplish a goal.

56. System boundaries

59. Stable System

60. My bar is a stable system: “Whenever a bottle finishes, I remove it from the bar. Then I open a new one, and add it to the bar. “

61. stable system: the rate at which items enter the system equals the rate at which they exit.

62. System
Inbound
Outbound

63. Agenda
•Whiskey
–Flow numbers at my bar
•Sushi
–Queue and wait time at a Japanese restaurant
•More whiskey
–System, System boundaries and Stable systems
•Flights and Traffic Jam
–Stabilizing the system and System Thinking
•Closing Thoughts

64. Traffic jam

69. System
Inbound
Outbound

70. Systems thinking (flight / boarding example)

71. Boarding a plane

73. A system is an arrangement of parts within the system’s boundaries which interact with each other, cooperating in a process to accomplish a goal.

74. So, what is the goal?

75. stable system: the rate at which items enter the system equals the rate at which they exit.

76. System
Inbound
Outbound

78. How fast should the gate boarding happen?

79. System
Inbound
Outbound

80. Agenda
•Whiskey
–Flow numbers at my bar
•Sushi
–Queue and wait time at a Japanese restaurant
•More whiskey
–System, System boundaries and Stable systems
•Flights and Traffic Jam
–Stabilizing the system and System Thinking
•Closing Thoughts

81. Closing Thoughts
•Make work visible
•Understand the flow parameters
•Limit work in progress
•Define your system(s)
•Focus on overall system improvement

82. Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli
www.caroli.org
@paulocaroli
Thank you!
Questions?

83. Free eBook on this topic
www.leanpub.com/optimizingtheflow

84. Next are a few slides for Q and A

85. System of systems example

90. Continuous Delivery is a software development discipline that fosters faster and more frequently releases.

93. And another restaurant example…

95. Traveling on a week day

97. System
Inbound
Outbound

99. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Queue
Analysis
Analysis Done
Development
Development Done
QA
Done

100. 0
5
10
15
20
25
day 1
day 2
day 3
day 4
day 5
day 6
day 7
day 8
day 9
day 10
To Do
Doing
Done

101. Doing
(Limit)
Done
To Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Lead Time

102. 0
5
10
15
20
25
day 1
day 2
day 3
day 4
day 5
day 6
day 7
day 8
day 9
day 10
To Do
Doing
Done
WIP
Lead Time