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7 ways to track lead-timePaulo Caroli Agile Coachpcaroli@thoughtworks.comTwitter: @paulocaroli

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Agenda• Flow numbers at my bar• 7 Ways to track lead time• Q&A

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Flow numbers at my bar

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WIP• The number of bottles in the bar. Bottlesthat have been opened, but are not yetempty.

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Lead time• The time between the bottle is added tothe bar and the bottle comes out of thebar (empty).

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Cycle time• The time between two successive emptybottles leaving the bar

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Throughput• The rate at which bottles are passing throughthe bar.

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Batch size• The size of the bottles.

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My bar…

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I was really interested inmeasuring a whiskey bottleaverage lead time in my bar...

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“The average number of workitems in a stable system is equalto their average completion rate,multiplied by their average timein the system.”John Little, 1961

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time

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Please help me out...

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Please help me out...

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12 bottles...

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an average of 6 bottles peryear…

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?

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What is the average lead timefor a bottle of whiskey?

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(a) 2 months(b) 3 months(c) 6 months(d) 1 year(e) 2 yearsWhat is the average lead time fora bottle of whiskey?

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time12 b= 6 b / year x Lead timeLead time = 2 years

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Little’s law math

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time12 b= 6 b / year x Lead timeLead time = 2 years

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time1

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Visual repesentation for SWDevelopmemnt work...

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Doing DoneTo Do105931181721475112JohnSuzyPaulAmy

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Doing DoneTo Do105931181721475112JohnSuzyPaulAmyLead Time10 10Day 1Day 6

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Write on card

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Banana peal

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Chickenpox

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Story tracking graph

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Little’s Law

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Story Tracking

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Little’s Law

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Control Chart

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Control Chart

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Control Chart

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Cummulative Flow Diagram

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Doing(Limit) DoneTo Do105931181721475112JohnSuzyPaulAmyWIPLead Time

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WIPLead Time

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Lead TimeCumulative Flow Diagram

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Let’s build these graphs together!61

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Story #time

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Lead timetime

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Worktime

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66Functionalitytime

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67Functionalitytime

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Story #time

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timeLead time

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Worktime

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Worktime

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72Functionalitytime

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Story #time

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timeLead time

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Worktime

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Worktime

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77Functionalitytime4

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Story #time

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timeLead time

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Worktime

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Worktime

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Agenda• Flow numbers at my bar• 7 Ways to track lead time• Q&A

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WIP = Throughput x Lead time1

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Little’s Law

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Control Chart

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Lead TimeCumulative Flow Diagram

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7 Ways to track lead-timePaulo Caroli Agile Coachpcaroli@thoughtworks.comTwitter: @paulocaroli

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Paulo Caroli Agile Coachpcaroli@thoughtworks.comTwitter: @paulocaroliThank you!Questions?feedback please: @paulocaroliwww.OptimizingTheFlow.com

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Question / ExamplePlanned and Planning:velocity versus lead time92

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93Functionality42882484Total Scope: 40Total Scope: 40

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If all work could bestarted at the same time...94

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Product Backlog95Functionalitytime

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The team has 3 pairs of engineers,and dependent Stories(swim lanes)96

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97time

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98Functionalitytime

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Now looking at Sprints99

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100Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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101Functionalitytime42882484sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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Let’s go back in timeand compare planned and actual102

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Planned103Functionality42882484Total Scope: 40 points1 Release of 3 sprintsExpected velocity:10 points for Sprint 115 points for Sprint 2 and 3Total Scope: 40 points1 Release of 3 sprintsExpected velocity:10 points for Sprint 115 points for Sprint 2 and 3

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104Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Velocity (planned)1015 15

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105Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Velocity (planned)1015 15

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106Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Burn Up (planned)102540

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Actual...107

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108Functionalitytime42sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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109Functionalitytime42sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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110Functionalitytime42sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Planned: 1010

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111Functionalitytime42sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Finished: 6106

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112Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Burn Up (planned)102540plannedactual6

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That Sprint review meeting...113

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114Functionalitytime42sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 382

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115Functionalitytime42882484sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 31015 15618 16

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116Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3Burn Up102540624plannedactual

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Using lead time instead...117

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Story #time

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Lead timetime

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120Functionalitytime42882484sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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121Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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Story #time

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timeLead time

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124Functionalitytimesp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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Story #time

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StimeLead time

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127Functionalitytime4sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

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Story #time

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SMLtimeLead time

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What about looking at the lead timenumbers instead of velocity?130

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Planning131Functionality42882484Total Scope: 8 StoriesOn day 6 out of 15:3 Stories are done, 2 are inprogress; 3 to goAvg lead time = 5 days andthe team work on 3 stories inparallelTotal Scope: 8 StoriesOn day 6 out of 15:3 Stories are done, 2 are inprogress; 3 to goAvg lead time = 5 days andthe team work on 3 stories inparalleldoneInprogressnext

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Will we make it?Answer based on lead time: yes, weshould finish all stories by day 15132Answer based on velocity: we need to increate theteam velocity, otherwise we will not finish all 40story points by day 15vs.

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QuestionWhat about using lead time andestimates?133

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You can get average per story size134

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SMLSLMLMtimeLead time

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SMLSLMLMtimeLead time

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Or average for lead time (if you arealready over extimates)137

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Control Chart

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QuestionHow do i visualize cycle time?139

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SMLSLMLMCycle timeCycle timetimeLead time