1.
7 ways to track lead-time
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli

2.
Agenda
• Flow numbers at my bar
• 7 Ways to track lead time
• Q&A

3.
Flow numbers at my bar

4.
WIP
• The number of bottles in the bar. Bottles
that have been opened, but are not yet
empty.

5.
Lead time
• The time between the bottle is added to
the bar and the bottle comes out of the
bar (empty).

6.
Cycle time
• The time between two successive empty
bottles leaving the bar

7.
Throughput
• The rate at which bottles are passing through
the bar.

8.
Batch size
• The size of the bottles.

9.
My bar…

10.
I was really interested in
measuring a whiskey bottle
average lead time in my bar...

11.
“The average number of work
items in a stable system is equal
to their average completion rate,
multiplied by their average time
in the system.”
John Little, 1961

12.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time

13.
Please help me out...

14.
Please help me out...

15.
12 bottles...

16.
an average of 6 bottles per
year…

17.
?

18.
What is the average lead time
for a bottle of whiskey?

19.
(a) 2 months
(b) 3 months
(c) 6 months
(d) 1 year
(e) 2 years
What is the average lead time for
a bottle of whiskey?

20.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time

21.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time

22.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time
Lead time = 2 years

23.
Little’s law math

24.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time
Lead time = 2 years

25.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time1

26.
Visual repesentation for SW
Developmemnt work...

27.
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy

28.
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Lead Time
10 10Day 1
Day 6

29.
Write on card

30.
Banana peal

31.
Chickenpox

32.
Story tracking graph

33.
Little’s Law

34.
Story Tracking

35.
Little’s Law

36.
Control Chart

37.
Control Chart

38.
Control Chart

39.
Cummulative Flow Diagram

40.
Doing
(Limit) DoneTo Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Lead Time

41.
WIP
Lead Time

42.
Lead Time
Cumulative Flow Diagram

43.
Let’s build these graphs together!
61

44.
Story #
time

45.
Lead time
time

46.
Work
time

47.
66
Functionality
time

48.
67
Functionality
time

49.
Story #
time

50.
time
Lead time

51.
Work
time

52.
Work
time

53.
72
Functionality
time

54.
Story #
time

55.
time
Lead time

56.
Work
time

57.
Work
time

58.
77
Functionality
time
4

59.
Story #
time

60.
time
Lead time

61.
Work
time

62.
Work
time

63.
Agenda
• Flow numbers at my bar
• 7 Ways to track lead time
• Q&A

64.
WIP = Throughput x Lead time1

65.
Little’s Law

66.
Control Chart

67.
Lead Time
Cumulative Flow Diagram

68.
7 Ways to track lead-time
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli

69.
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli
Thank you!
Questions?
feedback please: @paulocaroli
www.OptimizingTheFlow.com

70.
Question / Example
Planned and Planning:
velocity versus lead time
92

71.
93
Functionality
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
Total Scope: 40Total Scope: 40

72.
If all work could be
started at the same time...
94

73.
Product Backlog
95
Functionality
time

74.
The team has 3 pairs of engineers,
and dependent Stories
(swim lanes)
96

75.
97
time

76.
98
Functionality
time

77.
Now looking at Sprints
99

78.
100
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

79.
101
Functionality
time
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

80.
Let’s go back in time
and compare planned and actual
102

81.
Planned
103
Functionality
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
Total Scope: 40 points
1 Release of 3 sprints
Expected velocity:
10 points for Sprint 1
15 points for Sprint 2 and 3
Total Scope: 40 points
1 Release of 3 sprints
Expected velocity:
10 points for Sprint 1
15 points for Sprint 2 and 3

82.
104
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Velocity (planned)
10
15 15

83.
105
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Velocity (planned)
10
15 15

84.
106
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Burn Up (planned)
10
25
40

85.
Actual...
107

86.
108
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

87.
109
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

88.
110
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Planned: 10
10

89.
111
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Finished: 6
10
6

90.
112
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Burn Up (planned)
10
25
40
planned
actual
6

91.
That Sprint review meeting...
113

92.
114
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
8
2

93.
115
Functionality
time
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
10
15 15
6
18 16

94.
116
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Burn Up
10
25
40
6
24
planned
actual

95.
Using lead time instead...
117

96.
Story #
time

97.
Lead time
time

98.
120
Functionality
time
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

99.
121
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

100.
Story #
time

101.
time
Lead time

102.
124
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

103.
Story #
time

104.
S
time
Lead time

105.
127
Functionality
time
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3

106.
Story #
time

107.
S
M
L
time
Lead time

108.
What about looking at the lead time
numbers instead of velocity?
130

109.
Planning
131
Functionality
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
Total Scope: 8 Stories
On day 6 out of 15:
3 Stories are done, 2 are in
progress; 3 to go
Avg lead time = 5 days and
the team work on 3 stories in
parallel
Total Scope: 8 Stories
On day 6 out of 15:
3 Stories are done, 2 are in
progress; 3 to go
Avg lead time = 5 days and
the team work on 3 stories in
parallel
done
In
progress
next

110.
Will we make it?
Answer based on lead time: yes, we
should finish all stories by day 15
132
Answer based on velocity: we need to increate the
team velocity, otherwise we will not finish all 40
story points by day 15
vs.

111.
Question
What about using lead time and
estimates?
133

112.
You can get average per story size
134

113.
S
M
L
S
L
M
L
M
time
Lead time

114.
S
M
L
S
L
M
L
M
time
Lead time

115.
Or average for lead time (if you are
already over extimates)
137

116.
Control Chart

117.
Question
How do i visualize cycle time?
139

118.
S
M
L
S
L
M
L
M
Cycle timeCycle time
time
Lead time