1. COUNTER-INTUITY of
COMPLEX SYSTEMS:
WEATHER VS CLIMATE
SHORT TERM versus LONG
The Butterfly Effect
Short Term Drop in Oil Prices
Epidemic's Descendant Benefits
By Paul H. Carr, Ph.D.
www.MirrorOfNature.org

2. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
System Dynamics Pioneer, author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong
(apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

3. BUTTERFLY EFFECT:
Precision in Initial Conditions Limits Weather
Predictability
MIT Prof Edward
Lorentz
1961

6. The Lorenz Attractor: wibbly-wobbly mess of the millenium. Three
simulation runs (red, green, blue) are shown; they start close together
but quickly spin off on different trajectories, demonstrating sensitivity
to initial conditions (weather).
Nonetheless, the trajectories quickly converge on an intricate
structure in the phase space, called an 'attractor'. The attractor
doesn't vary with initial conditions, but is instead a feature of the
Lorenz equations themselves (climate).

7. Long term stable attractor pattern looks like butterfly wings

8. Did chaos theory kill climatology ?
“Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined
as the average weather, or more rigorously,
as the statistical description in terms of the
mean and variability of relevant quantities
over a period of time ranging from months to
thousands or millions of years.” IPCC
NO! LONG TERM AVERAGES ARE PREDICTABLE

9. 1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE
1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE
(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)
LONG TERM AVERAGES REMOVE THE SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS

10. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE. IS THERE A PHYSICAL
PROCESS LINKING TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO THAT OF GREENHOUSE GAS CO2?

11. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.

12. WEATHER VS. CLIMATE
•Initial condition accuracy limits weather
predictions to days. After this predictions
become chaotic.
•Long term averages smooth out chaotic
fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is
independent of initial conditions.
•Long term climactic averages aided by
physical understanding can be predictable.
•Similar to quantum theory of particles.

13. Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The
Weather Channel, said
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean
is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not
melting away.
Is this statement published in the
non-peer reviewed Daily Mail
correct from a climatology
perspective?

14. • The Sept 2012 minimum area set a record low.
• Sept 2013, 2014 is larger but not climate trend changing.
• http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Nat. Snow & Ice Data Ctr.

15. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
13

16. Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The
Weather Channel, said
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean
is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not
melting away.
Is this statement published in the
non-peer reviewed Daily Mail
correct from a climatology
perspective?

17. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)
Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).
Sea level rise has increased to 3.1 mm/year at
present from 0.8 mm/year 1870– 1924.
12 in./100
years.
7.5 in./100 years
3 in. /100 years

18. Most recent prediction for 2100: 3 to 6 feet

19. • Melting Greenland
• Melting Antarctica
• Mountain Glaciers
Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has been greater.
EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036
M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014
Faux Pause
18

20. 19
The rate of sea
level increase
correlates with
the blue line of
the CO2
increase.
Sea level rise is a proxy for
global temperature, since
it is due to thermal
expansion (50%) and the
melting of ice (50%)
SEA LEVEL RISE
IS A BETTER MEASURE OF
GLOBAL WARMING
THAN TEMPERATURE

21. Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global
ocean between 1980 and 2011.
A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full
Published by AAAS
20

22. Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different
indicated depths in the global ocean, A.
X Chen, and K Tung Science
2014;345:897-903
Published by AAAS

23. ARCTIC IS MELTING FASTER THAN UN IPCC 2007 PREDICTIONS
PREDICTEDPREDICTIONS
UN IPCC CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS OF 300 SCIENTISTS FROM 40 NATIONS.
From World Without Ice H. Pollack.
22

24. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
23

25. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
Author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong
(apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

26. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC
Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the
low-pressure arctic
Lower pressure difference allows
waves of arctic air to invade the
South: Warmer & Colder Winters.
Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth.
Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep
arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.
The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012
A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014
24

27. The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream
interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south,
bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-
way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way

29. Hopefully
humorous,
intuitive,
near term
weather
perspective

30. SHORT TERM: 50% drop in oil prices.

31. Recent drop on oil prices should be sort term.

32. In the long term, the Mid East will be the major oil producer.

33. THE LONG TERM BENEFICIARIES OF SHORT TERM DISASTERS
THE BRIGHT SIDE OF THE BACK DEATH
The Bubonic Plague left its mark on the human population of Europe,
showing that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
American Scientist vol. 102, pg 410-413, Nov-Dec 2014

34. Population dropped precipitously by a factor of 2 in 1348.
However, population had trippled from 1100 to 1300.

35. DESCENDENT BENEFITS
•Sharon DeWitte by examining cemeteries:
-A higher proportion of the population reached older ages
after the Black Death than before.
•Wages of labor rose due to higher demand.
•More land, food, and money for ordinary people.
• After 1492, Native American population plummeted
because they were not immune to European diseases.
-Advantage to European settlers in armed conflicts.

36. LONG TERM DESCENDENT BENEFITS
“God judged it better to bring
good out of evil, than to suffer no
evil to exist.”
Thomas Aquinas (1225–1274)
AMBIGUITY OF GOOD & EVIL

37. WEATHER VS. CLIMATE
•Initial condition accuracy limits weather
predictions to days. After this predictions
become chaotic.
•Long term averages smooth out chaotic
fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is
independent of initial conditions.
•Long term climactic averages aided by
physical understanding can be predictable.
•Similar to quantum theory of particles.

38. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
Author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong
(apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

39. “Where there is no vision,
the people perish.”
Proverbs 29: 18.