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COUNTER-INTUITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: WEATHER VS. CLIMATE

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COUNTER-INTUITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: WEATHER VS. CLIMATE

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Short-term weather fluctuations should not blind us from what long -term climate trends are telling us. Other unexpected aspects of complex system dynamics are the Butterfly Effect and the descendent benefit of epidemics.

Short-term weather fluctuations should not blind us from what long -term climate trends are telling us. Other unexpected aspects of complex system dynamics are the Butterfly Effect and the descendent benefit of epidemics.

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COUNTER-INTUITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: WEATHER VS. CLIMATE

  1. 1. COUNTER-INTUITY of COMPLEX SYSTEMS: WEATHER VS CLIMATE SHORT TERM versus LONG The Butterfly Effect Short Term Drop in Oil Prices Epidemic's Descendant Benefits By Paul H. Carr, Ph.D. www.MirrorOfNature.org
  2. 2. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971) System Dynamics Pioneer, author of World Dynamics •The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of complex systems.) •Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space. •Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated, not the problem. -The cause of the problem is within the system. •Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.
  3. 3. BUTTERFLY EFFECT: Precision in Initial Conditions Limits Weather Predictability MIT Prof Edward Lorentz 1961
  4. 4. The Lorenz Attractor: wibbly-wobbly mess of the millenium. Three simulation runs (red, green, blue) are shown; they start close together but quickly spin off on different trajectories, demonstrating sensitivity to initial conditions (weather). Nonetheless, the trajectories quickly converge on an intricate structure in the phase space, called an 'attractor'. The attractor doesn't vary with initial conditions, but is instead a feature of the Lorenz equations themselves (climate).
  5. 5. Long term stable attractor pattern looks like butterfly wings
  6. 6. Did chaos theory kill climatology ? “Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.” IPCC NO! LONG TERM AVERAGES ARE PREDICTABLE
  7. 7. 1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE 1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE (Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.) LONG TERM AVERAGES REMOVE THE SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS
  8. 8. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE. IS THERE A PHYSICAL PROCESS LINKING TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO THAT OF GREENHOUSE GAS CO2?
  9. 9. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
  10. 10. WEATHER VS. CLIMATE •Initial condition accuracy limits weather predictions to days. After this predictions become chaotic. •Long term averages smooth out chaotic fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is independent of initial conditions. •Long term climactic averages aided by physical understanding can be predictable. •Similar to quantum theory of particles.
  11. 11. Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The Weather Channel, said www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Is this statement published in the non-peer reviewed Daily Mail correct from a climatology perspective?
  12. 12. • The Sept 2012 minimum area set a record low. • Sept 2013, 2014 is larger but not climate trend changing. • http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Nat. Snow & Ice Data Ctr.
  13. 13. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014. 3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO 13
  14. 14. Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The Weather Channel, said www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Is this statement published in the non-peer reviewed Daily Mail correct from a climatology perspective?
  15. 15. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602) Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/). Sea level rise has increased to 3.1 mm/year at present from 0.8 mm/year 1870– 1924. 12 in./100 years. 7.5 in./100 years 3 in. /100 years
  16. 16. Most recent prediction for 2100: 3 to 6 feet
  17. 17. • Melting Greenland • Melting Antarctica • Mountain Glaciers Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has been greater. EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036 M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014 Faux Pause 18
  18. 18. 19 The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase. Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%) SEA LEVEL RISE IS A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING THAN TEMPERATURE
  19. 19. Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean between 1980 and 2011. A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full Published by AAAS 20
  20. 20. Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different indicated depths in the global ocean, A. X Chen, and K Tung Science 2014;345:897-903 Published by AAAS
  21. 21. ARCTIC IS MELTING FASTER THAN UN IPCC 2007 PREDICTIONS PREDICTEDPREDICTIONS UN IPCC CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS OF 300 SCIENTISTS FROM 40 NATIONS. From World Without Ice H. Pollack. 22
  22. 22. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014. 3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO 23
  23. 23. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971) Author of World Dynamics •The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of complex systems.) •Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space. •Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated, not the problem. -The cause of the problem is within the system. •Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.
  24. 24. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the low-pressure arctic Lower pressure difference allows waves of arctic air to invade the South: Warmer & Colder Winters. Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth. Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans. The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012 A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014 24
  25. 25. The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south, bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo- way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way
  26. 26. Hopefully humorous, intuitive, near term weather perspective
  27. 27. SHORT TERM: 50% drop in oil prices.
  28. 28. Recent drop on oil prices should be sort term.
  29. 29. In the long term, the Mid East will be the major oil producer.
  30. 30. THE LONG TERM BENEFICIARIES OF SHORT TERM DISASTERS THE BRIGHT SIDE OF THE BACK DEATH The Bubonic Plague left its mark on the human population of Europe, showing that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. American Scientist vol. 102, pg 410-413, Nov-Dec 2014
  31. 31. Population dropped precipitously by a factor of 2 in 1348. However, population had trippled from 1100 to 1300.
  32. 32. DESCENDENT BENEFITS •Sharon DeWitte by examining cemeteries: -A higher proportion of the population reached older ages after the Black Death than before. •Wages of labor rose due to higher demand. •More land, food, and money for ordinary people. • After 1492, Native American population plummeted because they were not immune to European diseases. -Advantage to European settlers in armed conflicts.
  33. 33. LONG TERM DESCENDENT BENEFITS “God judged it better to bring good out of evil, than to suffer no evil to exist.” Thomas Aquinas (1225–1274) AMBIGUITY OF GOOD & EVIL
  34. 34. WEATHER VS. CLIMATE •Initial condition accuracy limits weather predictions to days. After this predictions become chaotic. •Long term averages smooth out chaotic fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is independent of initial conditions. •Long term climactic averages aided by physical understanding can be predictable. •Similar to quantum theory of particles.
  35. 35. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971) Author of World Dynamics •The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of complex systems.) •Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space. •Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated, not the problem. -The cause of the problem is within the system. •Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.
  36. 36. “Where there is no vision, the people perish.” Proverbs 29: 18.

Editor's Notes

  • The temperature increase curve coincides with the temperature increase.
  • Oceanic heat sink. Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean between 1980 and 2011. Since 2000, the subsurface ocean has warmed much faster than in the preceding two decades; this ocean warming may explain why average atmospheric temperatures have not risen during the past decade. The gray bars show the timing of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions. The yellow and blue bars show the timing of several key El Niño and La Niña events. Data from the ORAS-4 ocean reanalysis (10).
  • Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different indicated depths in the global ocean (A), the Atlantic (B), the Pacific (C), the Southern Ocean (D), and the Indian Ocean (E). Shown is the 12-month running mean deviation from the climatological mean (1970 to 2012) for each layer, so attention should not be focused on the absolute distance between the curves but should be on their relative changes in time. Color lines show the OHC in the left scale, in units of 1023 J. The black line shows the mean SST up to 2013. (Insets) The division of the globe into the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean. Although shown in the figure, data in the earlier decades were not as reliable (see Data and Materials and Methods); the discussion in the text is focused on the better-observed regions and periods.
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