Mobile messaging trends capgemini consulting

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Quick scan on Mobile Messaging

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  • Good slides Patrick, shame some of it is a bit out of date now! If you'd like, we shared some very recent stats on our own slideshare post. Have a quick look, I'm sure you could update your slides by taking some of these learnings in!
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Mobile messaging trends capgemini consulting

  1. 1. Trends in Mobile Messaging – quick scanMay 2012Capgemini Consulting TME Netherlands Transform to the power of digital
  2. 2. Declines in the growth of the number of SMS sent and SMS revenues are forecasted overthe next four years Global SMS revenue ($billion) Number of Global SMS sent per year (trillion) +30% +74% 137 8,7 +41% 106 +646% 75 5,0 0,7 2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015  Over the next few years, mobile operators will  A significant decline in the growth of SMS sent no longer be experiencing the high sms will be noted over the next few years, which revenue growth that it had achieved between will significantly impact the revenues of most 2005 and 2010 mobile operators  This decline will be most pronounced in developed markets Source: www.juniperresearch.com; www.irma-international.org; www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com Copyright © 2012 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
  3. 3. By 2015, SMS is forecast to contribute 68% of mobile messaging revenues, as opposed tothe 80% during 2010 Breakdown of global messaging revenues Forecasted breakdown of traffic (2015) 100% MMS 5,0% Email 68% 21,0%SMS 80% SMS 41,0% 11%MMSEmail 8% 13%IM 8% 33,0% 4% 8% IM 2010 2015(f) Although SMS will still remain high source of revenue  Even though IM will be constituting the bulk of the for operators, its contribution to total messaging messaging traffic (33% of the total messaging traffic), revenue will decline as IM, Email and MMS continue it is forecast to only contribute 8% to the total to grow messaging revenues for mobile operators Source: Informa Telecom and Media Copyright © 2012 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
  4. 4. According to Ovum, mobile operators lost more than $13billion in annual revenues dueto the rise of mobile messaging applications like Whatsapp and Facebook chats Loss of SMS revenue as a result of substitution (2011) IM Application bandwidth share 150 Other IM 13 Facebook chat 15,0% ICQ 22,0% Google talk This is potential sms revenue that 5,0% 1,0% was lost as a result 137 of IM messages QQ 8,0% 18,0% Whatsapp 14,0% Windows live Global SMS Lost revenu Potential 17,0% revenu SMS revenu Yahoo mesenger Ovum analyst using advanced prediction models,  Another research company, Allot, further estimate that mobile operators have lost supplemented Ovum’s predictions, using traffic approximately $13 billion in potential sms revenue as generated by around 250 million mobile users a result of the rise in instant messaging  The data showed that messaging is migrating from This trend in lost sms revenue is anticipated to cellular to internet based world, with facebook chat continue as smartphone penetration continues to rise and whatsapp being major players in this migration Source: Informa Telecom and Media; www.theregister.co.uk Copyright © 2012 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
  5. 5. Facebook and WhatsApp are growing in leaps and bounds and capturing a significantshare of the SMS market  Facebook has 920 million users, and over 425 million  WhatsApp Messenger is a cross-platform mobile access the site from their phones messaging app available for iPhone, BlackBerry, Windows Phone, Android and Nokia  It is said that Facebook probably transports more mobile traffic, number of messages and time spent  The company was launched in 2009, and within a online than the worlds largest operator year had managed to have approximately 1 million users. Their subscriber base is estimated to have  In August 2011, Facebook messenger was initially grown to tens of millions released for Android ad Iphones, and the blackberry version was introduced in October 2011.  The ability to send messages between any kind of smartphone gives WhatsApp an advantage over  Facebook Messenger is considered the best Blackberry messenger and Apple’s iMessage, which alternative to SMS for three reasons: are restricted to owners of similar devices ― With over 901 million monthly active users most individuals are easily reachable  In February 2012, it was estimated that WhatsApp ― it’s cross-platform (not limited to only just users generate 2 billion messages sent each day, an mobile increase of 1 billion per day from October 2011, ― and it is regularly getting significant upgrades, video calling is anticipated to be released soon Copyright © 2012 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved. Source: Ovum; www.ft.com; company websites; www.zdnet.com; http://www.cnet.com.au
  6. 6. Differing reactions to the cannibalisation of sms revenues by IM applications have been noted from the key players affected Telefonica KPN • In response to the rise in IM application, Telefonica has recently • At their financial report back of the Q1 2011 results, KPN reported aMobile operators launched TU me , an integrated, smart over-the-top (“OTT”) 10% y-o-y drop in sms revenues messaging service • The company contributed the fall in SMS and voice traffic and • The application enables one to send text messages, voice revenues to the increased use of messaging applications on smart- messages, photos, location information and even make calls phones through the App • It was rumoured that the mobile operator intends to introduce • It is initially available on iphones only and it is not restricted to just separate tariffs for IP-based services such as voice-over-IP, instant Telefonica customers messaging and streaming video, according to local media reports • This move was quickly curtailed by the regulator through the introduction of the net neutrality law Mobile Messaging Application developers Regulators • WhatsApp co-founder believes that their application is no threat to • The EC has not gone so far as to define „net neutrality‟ in telecomsOther key players mobile operators and does not impact on their revenues legislation to come into force 25 May 2011 , in order to curb attempts by operators to block certain applications • “I view it from the perspective that we‟re facilitating a broad movement to data plans and the entities that provide those plans • European telecoms regulators will be required to “promote the are the carriers, so they stand to benefit quite substantially. It‟s all ability of Internet users to access and distribute information or run about the data “ he added applications and services of their choice”. • The Commission also stated that it needs to gather more information with regards to the de facto blocking of certain services by operators as a result of charging their subscribers more to access these services. Copyright © 2012 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved. Source: Informa Telecoms and Media; Reuters; www.mobileindustryreview.com/
  7. 7. Mobile operators still have the opportunity to maximise revenues from application-to-person (A2P) SMS services Breakdown between P2P and A2P (2016) Key notes  The rise in instant messaging applications will lead to 100% a reduction in person-to-person sms, as consumers increasingly start using these applications  However Application-to-person will to continue to increase 49%  Application-to-person (A2P) messaging include financial services, advertising, marketing, business P2P 85% administration, ticketing, television voting and any other service where information needs to be sent to, or received from a large number of users in text  SMS will remain the preferred method for A2P ― Universal access – not restricted to just smart 51% phones ― Interoperability across devices and mobile operator networks, A2P 15% ― Ease of use, ― Reliability, and 2004 2015(f) ― Low cost Source: www.irma-international.org; www.juniperresearch.com Copyright © 2012 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
  8. 8. For more information contact:Khanya VokwanaCC TME Netherlandskhanya.vokwana@capgemini.com 8

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