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Journalism, media and technology predictions 2013 final high quality

  1. 1. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 1Nic Newman Digital Consultant: ( Mob: 07802 210886)Executive summaryMobile, social and visual remain the three key disrupters for media in general and journalism inparticular – along with the growing importance of real time media as a cross cutting trend.To note in particular:  The coming year will mark the BIG switch to mobile computing. It will overtake desktop use for news – in turn driving more mobile first media  Improving video capabilityand data graphics will be a major theme for news organisations aiming to engage audiences using better screens and faster connections  Live pages, live streams and live workflows become a key focus in newsrooms – with new formats emerging for bite-sized news  Thephablet is coming –a mix between a smartphone and tablet. Mid sized screens and affordability will hit the sweet spot for many consumers  We’ll see a further deepening of the social revolution across all platforms – accompanied by a growing debate about the implications – privacy, controland all the new skills required to manage it (we said this last year but it is worth repeating)  In technology expectbig advances in gesture control (LeapMotion), indoor location, 3D Printers - and the beginnings of wearable computing  More disruption in banking &finance, retailing and higher education as the Internet revolution begins to bite  Start ups and small companies to watch include … NowThisNews, Circa, ToutWhat did we learn in 2012: Surprises, triumphs and disastersThis was the year when ‘digital first’ went beyond a slogan and become a reality - from the WhiteHouse to the Vatican and beyond.In a remarkable development, President Obama chose to make his acceptance speech on Twitter notvia traditional media. And this was no accident. His team have worked out how to reverse the flowof news by building direct media channels and communities – andallowing the network to do the rest. The ‘four more years’ messagecomplete with its carefully selected picture became the most re-tweeted in history and the most liked post on Facebook - whilstalso being picked up by newspapers and magazines around theworld.Even the Pope(@Pontifex)bowed to the inevitable. At time ofwriting, Benedict XVIhas built up 2 million followers in 8 languagesand has posted around20 tweets. He showed a fine grasp ofcrowdsourcing in his first week – another key digital trend.1
  2. 2. 2 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANIt has been another extraordinary year for Twitter riding the wave of real time interest. There arenow over 10 million active users in the UK including new recruits David Cameron, Hugh Grant andGary Lineker.Twitter played a big role in the 2012 Olympics too, bringing athletes and ordinary people together toshare in the experience, but the overwhelming story was how ‘normal’ and integrated digital felt.The BBCs multiplatform coverage – with its promise to deliver coverage of ‘every sport from everyvenue’ - went down a storm with audiences and critics alike. Switching between 24 live streamaudiences consumed more video than ever before – 106m video requests with peak traffic on 1stAugust when Bradley Wiggins won gold.But perhaps the biggest surprise was the extent to which audiences– in their desire not to miss amoment of the action - embraced mobile coverage. LOCOG said that 60% of the visits to theirwebsite came from mobile phones1; the BBC reported between 30% and 50% depending on the timeof day. Even the 3G networks held up - with rock solid streaming to mobile in the Olympic park itself.Against that background, it is not surprising that we’ve seen a rush towards responsive design-websites that adapt seamlessly to any device. This was another of our predictions last year butwedidn’t necessarily expect the UK government to be amongst the first. The Guardian, the BBC aresome of the publishers to have adopted these techniques with these single HTML5 outputs alsoproviding the basis for apps such as the BBC’s Sport Olympics and the new BBC Sport product.This was also the year when a number of newspapers stopped acting like newspapers. The WallStreet Journal and othersran network style TV coverage on election night and the New York Times’brilliant Snowfall documentary broke new ground for long-form multimedia journalism.1
  3. 3. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 3All this multimedia excitement was driven by the widespread adoption of HTML5, cheaper fasterbroadband and by the explosive growth of tablets. A year ago we spoke about a doubling of marketshare to around one in four households (pretty much spot on2). Given that even the cheapest tabletsa year ago cost well over £200 in the UK we felt it was bold to predict the first £99 tabletbut, sureenough,it’s here with a further £10 discount for the January sales. The Kindle Fire arrived in the UKwith Jeff Bezos admitting the devices are soldpretty much at cost–Trojan horses for media content,which is where Amazon’s money will be made.But none of this tablet fever seems to be helping the news industry. The Daily – Rupert Murdoch’sbold experiment in new form journalism - collapsed and with it came a growing realisation that therecan be no return to the simple newsstand models of the past.Even so, we suggested that greenshoots for newspapers would begin to emerge in 2012 and remarkably some corners are beingturned with digital advertising up and online subscription beginning to work for some. In the year ofthe paywall,hundreds of papers in the US committed, for better or worse, to making readers pay forthe news online, after years of giving their content way for free on the web (see section on businessof journalism below).2012 was another big year for new publishing models and the disruptive power of social discovery. Fifty Shades of Grey started life as a self-published eBook and was popularised by blogs and word of mouth recommendation. It went on to be the biggest paperback seller of all time, gave the Kindles a reason for being and reversed the book-publishing model3. Kony 2012, a self-published campaigning film by the charity Invisible Children, racked up more than 100m views on YouTube and Vimeo and became the world’s most viral video4. With no marketing budget, the film engaged young people around the world to take direct action and even led to a debate and resolution in the US Senate.2Oliver & Ohlbaum Consumer Survey Survey shows Tablets at around 25% in the UK and US3 Says Paul Dale (ITV) - On-demand printing and e-book engines like Amazon’s means that anyone now can turn a simpleword document into a saleable literary product- affordably and quickly4
  4. 4. 4 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANBoth these examplesshow both how the old gatekeepers have lost their monopoly on tastemaking –and the potent combination that can result from original content + the new distribution networks ofthe digital age.On the up … Nate Silver – The high priest of ‘big data’ predicted the correct results for every state in the US election by aggregating everyone else’s polls and bringing a deep understanding of statistics into the newsroom. Oftenportrayedtoday as a green fingered witch (right) Raspberry Pi – One of the success stories of the year, this affordable (£30) credit card sized computer board was designed to inspire a new generation to code. The teamhoped they’d sell a few thousand but will end up shifting over a million by their first anniversary in February. For 2013 there’s a new Pi store to share programmes/games and a new focus on getting this to work in schools. ITV’s news website – delivered an innovative approach based on live and social. It put ITV News on the digital map both with the critics but also in audience terms peaking at 3.4m uniques during the Olympics. Buzzfeed – Emerged as the ‘defining media outlet of 2012’5 with its innovative coverage of the US election. It is laser-focussed on building a media company from the ground up for a social and mobile world- incorporating short form, long form and curated journalism. Google has had another quiet year of spectacular success. Chrome became the world’s most popular web browser in 2012 overtaking Internet Explorer. Android smartphones are outselling Apple globally by 2:1Oh dear … BBC: The warm glow of the Olympics didn’t take long to dissipate amidst ‘Chaos, confusion and a lack of leadership from senior executives’.6 George Entwistle was forced out in 54 days over his handling of the Jimmy Savile revelations as the BBC went through 4 DGs in a year (including one temporary one and one who has yet to start). The crisis is hardly the ‘worst in 50 years’7 but has dented public trust at the same time as sapping the confidence of staff. The BBC is set for another year of5 The words of Nick Pollard in his review of the Newsnight editorial processes and fallout
  5. 5. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 5 internal soul searching – not ideal conditions for digital innovation and leadership. That’s bad news for the rest of the UK media industry too Facebook: We did predict a Facebook backlash last year but nothing on this scale. The botchedFacebook IPO, rows over privacy and another over terms and conditions within Instagram have made it a tough 2013 for Mark Zuckerberg despite breaking through 1 billion users. All this has put a spring in the step back into Google who’ve come to recognise that maybe missing the social media boat wasn’t so bad after all. The Apple maps fiasco did more to hurt the companys image than anything else in 2013. Apples key selling point is that its software and hardware just work – every time. Yet this mapping application felt like an early stage beta; Australian police warned against using it in case you got lost in the Outback. When Google finally released its new maps application for iOS6, its elegance, accuracy and speed blew Apple out of the park with 10m downloads in 48 hours. Consumers voting with their feet - against Apple – on an issue of product quality proved a huge blow to company pride and to the share price. Despite the strong success of the iPad mini and the eventual arrival of the iPhone 5 with its bigger screen (as we predicted), nothing really moved the dial In terms of product innovation. Apple increasingly looks like a normal company in post Jobs era and the pressure is on Tim Cook, Sir Jonathan Ive and the rest of his reshaped team8 to deliver something inspirational in 2013.Indeed, as CES opens in Las Vegas with ever-bigger screen TVs and revamped Internet fridges, weare left wondering if “everything that can be invented has been invented”9. Are we set for decadesof optimisation and refinement or are there some staggering new leaps still to come?Perhaps it is just that the innovators have become the incumbents and we’re in a creative lull. In thedeveloped world, we seem to be settling for a monopoly (or duopoly) of supply, with everyone elseover the hill and on the slide. You buy an iThing if youre rich, and an Android if youre not. You useonly Facebook to keep in touch with your friends and share stuff. You use only Twitter for real-timegossip creation and consumption. You use only Microsoft if you have to work. You use Google foreverything else. 10In that respect, thank heavens for the innovators of 2012. This time last year we said watchPinterest,Summly and Waze – all largely unknown start ups at the time but today making headlineswith successful user friendly products that fill a real audience need with style and elegance.There was much that we got right - more that we didn’t. A more detailed list of last year’spredictions is in the appendix of this report.8 th Famous misquote attributed to a US patent commissioner of the 19 Century (thanks to Paul Dale)10 Observations on homogenisation of supply from the BBC’s Richard Cooper5
  6. 6. 6 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANSmartphones, apps and the rise of the mobile webIt won’t happen all in one year but the conditions are now right for the ‘BIG switch’ to mobilecomputing. Fast reliable networks, mainstream smartphones adoption (50%+) and more and moregreat content and services that are actually designed for the device.The UK is already the biggest user of mobile data in the world – according to Ofcom11, despite havingslower and patchiernetwork coverage than Angola and Uzbekistan. But that could be aboutimprove.More 4G services launch in the UK in the spring with download speeds five to seven timesfaster than existing 3G networks (Ofcom) – pretty similar to current home broadband speeds12.Just as importantly, the tethering of 4G devices to laptops and tablets will further stimulate Internetservices and usage out of the office. The biggest driver of mobile usage remains social networkingsites (40% of traffic) along with mobile shopping. Timely content such as News and Sport is the otherbig driver (around 30% use on a smartphone compared with 16% for general web traffic)13.Globally, the change is happening even faster as many developing countries have moved straight tomobile. In some countries, more than half of all web traffic already comes from mobile devices(Zimbabwe 58%, Nigeria 57%) and India will reach the tipping point this year.14In terms of platforms, Apple continues to dominate in the US with 50% of the smartphone marketbut in Europe it is a very different story. Here, Android phones account for 61% with Samsung taking44% on its own. Blackberry RIM lost 10% market share this year in the UKand will continue to scrapfor third place with Nokia/Windows.Apple’s app economy remains a big advantage in both the smartphone and tablet space butimprovements in Web technologies (browsers, HTML 5, CSS3, APIs etc.) will eventually drive morepublishers towards cross platform open Internetapproaches – and these favour Google. As it getsharder to distinguish between an app and a website, an important new differentiator will be dataintegration – but as we’ve seen with maps this is not Apple’s forte.Given the growth of the mobile market, it is still extraordinary that at the end of 2012 so manypublisher websites are still not optimised for smartphones. Getting content to display beautifully forApple and especially Android devices should be a key priority in 2013 along with rethinkingcommercial and content models for the mobile world.Specific predictions Major news and sport websites report 50%+ of traffic coming from mobiles and tablets by the end of the year11 Mobile web browsing, video streaming and social networking in the UK now outstrips Japan. The average UK mobileconnection used 424 megabytes of data per month, whether for social networking, streaming videos, web browsing ordownloading music. Downloading a CD album that can take 20 minutes on an average 3G connection will take 3 minutes via 4G13 The BBC and Guardian reported an average of more than 30% of traffic coming from mobile sources in 2012. Ofcom say16% of all webtraffic comes this way.14 Figures from
  7. 7. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 7 Amazon enters the smartphone market. Android moves to 70% market share in Europe but Apple continues to drive most of the revenues. Blackberry bombs (in EU/US) despite excellent reviews for new operating system (BB10) and range of phones. We’ll still be asking the question – apps or mobile web in a year’s time? It’s both for a while longer. Average UK data usage will rise to 750MB (+60% ) per user driven by new services and better connections. Leading to bill shock as consumers push through current allowances.Tablets get smaller and EVEN cheaper. Beginning of the end for e-readersWhile the Kindle, the Kobo and the Nook were among this year’s most popular Christmas gifts,monochrome devices are already being outsold by the next generation of small tablets. The iPadMini and Nexus7 are leading the way: "Tablets will become so cheap, the screens will get better,battery life will improve significantly and then e-readers will only be kept alive for sentimentalreasons", says Forrester’s James McQuivey. He believes Amazon may eventually have to give theKindle away for free to encourage customers to keep buying content.They’ll need to do something because the latest whitepaper version of the Kindle is now moreexpensive than the fully featured, all colour Kindle Fire HD tablet(from £129).The Nexus7 is now just£179 with similar spec machines coming onto the market for around £120 in the spring. The chartbelow shows a further explosive growth in tablets predicted to reach 45% of UK Internet users byNovember 2013 overtaking e-readers for the first time.However, we shouldn’t think these devices are the only game in town. Businesses in particular arestill looking for one deviceto keep down costs. Smartphone andtabletshaven’t helped in that respect so hybrid devices that can betouchscreen and keyboard entry and easily dock at home or in the office(mostly Microsoft powered) will gain ground.7
  8. 8. 8 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANMost tablets still don’t integrate with VPNs and so still don’t work with content inside the firewall.Apple will fix that problem and develop more solutions for business customers this year. Overallwe’ll see more blurring of the laptop and mobile devices in terms of OS/UI and app stores. Windows8 is just the start.Specific predictions E-reader sales are badly affected by the growth of the 7” tablet market, which has a bumper year. Nexus proves the big competitor for the iPad mini in Europe not the Kindle Fire. The term Phablet will enter dictionaries this year – describing the oversized smartphone/undersized tablet. Newspapers will start bundling distribution with content - free tablets with annual subscription for about the price of an old print sub15. Google Chrome laptops become quiet hit of the yearSocial media and the role of identityAt some level we have always known that social networks are not free. With every tweet and like,with every addition to our profile, every photo and every connection, we are providing ‘a little bit ofourselves’ that can be sold to advertisers. We are the product, but we do it because, on the whole,the benefits for us outweigh both the intrusions and the risks to our privacy. This was the year whenpeople started to question that balance.Social networks have been testing what consumers will put up with. Sponsored Tweets andFacebook posts now appear in timelines, Terms and Conditions have changed at a moments noticegiving networks more control over your photos or personal data – as with recent Instagram row.16The boundaries are moving relentlessly but incrementally and we can expect more of the same in2013 not least because Facebook at least now has to answer to shareholder expecting real worldeconomic returns. Just as news organisations have done, expect social networks to increasinglyfocus on business models and revenue streams beyond advertising.With the IPO out of the way, Facebook in particular will be looking to experiment with shoppingservices and distributing entertainment, building on the partnership with Apples iTunes forFacebook gifts. But they’ll also be trying to make social ads work across the web.Allied to this, we’re seeing a growing push towards real names, real identities and real locations -backed up by more visibility of those profiles online. Google’s core strategy now (see how Google +profiles are integrated right across their services) is to build up more personal information tosupport more relevant results – but also around which they can sell more context specific services.All they need to do is get you to register once, connect to friends - job done.And let’s not forget LinkedIn, which has already built a profitable line in selling our personalinformation to headhunters and advertisers (revenue up 73% in 2012). The addition of15 Prediction from Stephen Pinches at the FT (though we did also suggest this in our 2010 document – a bit too soon)16
  9. 9. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 9‘endorsements’ and other sticky features in particular have increased homepage traffic by 60% -making the network even more valuable and relevant to news companies too.Against this background, anonymity is increasingly hard to find. Expect social networks to be thetarget of campaigns to simplify T&Cs, be more transparent about changes to service and have morefine-grained control over settings.The desire for control - or not see irrelevant content - is also behind the relative failure ofexperiments in ‘frictionless sharing of news’ that were all the rage this time last year. Initial spikes inactivity around social newsreading apps from the Washington Post and the Guardian tailed off whenFacebook was forced to turn the volume down (down by 95% and 75% of their former levelsrespectively17). Facebook users were getting fed up with ‘thoughtless’ sharing that produced contentthat often had little relevance their own interests.For 2013 sites like the Guardian are abandoning their Facebook app and refocusing on providingsocial hooks on their own site where users explicitly choose to share content. Product ManagerAnthony Sullivan says “In the future, users on our site may be able to agree or disagree withcomment pieces, take part in polls or express their view on the likelihood of a football rumourcoming true.“ Expect too pushing out of new formats within social networks (not just links andembedded video) to make the most of Twittercards and the like. We also expect to see better socialintegration with journalist workflows and content management systems.Specific predictions Facebook and Twitter offer ‘paid for services’ to consumers (e.g. paying Facebook for hi-res photos and fewer ads, added location based services) Expect a bigger focus on social networks making money from warehousing and reselling data to companies and businesses looking to mine social media. This will be accompanied by increasing restrictions on the free API limits More rows about Terms and Conditions, privacy and more calls for new legislation to protect citizens especially in Europe (e.g. Right to Forget legislation) Twitter heads for IPO
in late 2013 making its founders and employees rich. Realistic pricing means share price goes UP after launch. Take off for fun photo and video sharing services like Tout and also SnapChat and Poke (where messages self-destruct on viewing) especially with the young.17 In April, The Washington Post’s Social Reader had 12m monthly active users now it has 600,000 according toPoynter acticle quoting AppData (decline of 95%). The Guardian had nearly 6 million monthly active users of itsFacebook app in April. Now it has around 2.5m – a decline of about 75%.
  10. 10. 10 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANTV disruption and the rise of over the top video (OTT)Consumption of on-demand content through the TV and other ‘authenticated devices’ is on themove. Ofcom says that the UK now leads the world with nearly one in four (25%) catching up ontheir TV via on-demand services such as the iPlayer and SkyGo at least once a week. The US camesecond with 17%, followed by 16% of people in Spain.Over the Christmas period, the BBC reported record on-demand viewing with 77million programmerequests. Overall, the iPlayer mobile app was downloaded 1 million times over the festive periodwith viewing on smartphones and tablets (combined) overtaking that via computers on ChristmasDay and Boxing Day for the first time ever.Bell Labs research in the United States points to a dramatic shift in viewing habits over the next fewyears, as consumers switch from broadcast content to video-on-demand services, which will growto 70% of daily consumption by 2020, compared with 33% today. It predicts a 12x increase inInternet video content as cloud services, news sites and social networking applications becomemore video based. Overall, the research also predicts that video consumption will also rise to sevenhours each day, compared with the current 4.8 hours – and much of this additional viewing, it says,will be via tablets at home and on the go and involve multitasking.1818 Bell Labs research: How the tablet generation is pushing networks to the edge
  11. 11. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 11Against this background, it is not surprising we are seeing so much activity in the OTT video space.Smart TVs and Internet connected boxes are all the rage at the annual CES show in Las Vegas. GoogleTV for example is launching a new generation of software and devices that take voice commandsand integrate seamlessly with Google Play - with Android tablets and smartphones.Surely this is the year when Apple will up its game in the TV space.A ‘TV app store’ is expected alongwith a full-blown Apple TV– something that plays nicely with all your other Apple devices.But Apple may struggle to get the licensing agreements in place in the US (as they did with music) sowont be as disruptive as the iPod or iPhones. UK and European launches will be even more difficult -and much later too. Few existing players want to see OTT providers taking up to 30% of the revenuesor a significant slice of advertising revenue - and the biggest driver in television remains access tocompelling and original content. Broadcasters remain in a good position if they can maintain boththeir rights and their reputations – and then it comes down to who is going to do deals with whom.2012 saw significant innovation in the technical underpinnings of Internet (over the top) television.During the Olympics, both live and on demand video were delivered using IP across multiple displayscreens simultaneously and with record demand. The key challenge now is how to monetise thisacross a fragmented multiple device landscape.Not surprising then that we’ll see renewed interested in ‘addressable’ or targeted TV ads. Withmore data available on who is watching and what their interests are, the nature of televisionadvertising will gradually begin to shift with new low cost options at least for on-demand viewing.Specific predictions Interactive TV will remain a buzzword, but the emphasis will shift to over the top boxes + more emphasis on the mobile tablet as the place to browse and select content, and then play on TV (e.g. Google TV and YouTube pairing, Apple airplay and eventually Intel’s Widi). The Apple TV will launch late in the year with a screen size of over 42” and a price tag of around $1500. The key selling point as the main interface for the living room across multiple devices More innovations and efficiencies in IP-based networks and packet-based global signal delivery. Existing wired infrastructures struggle to cope with exploding internet video consumptionThe rise of the visual web (or think about your words more carefully)For hundreds of years the written word has dominated – partly because of the costs of productionand the constraints of distribution. Now with the arrival of the ‘uber-platform’ (online) thoseconstraints are falling away and storytelling can revert to a more natural and more colourful form.Have you noticed how Facebook and Twitter feeds are filling up with pictures and videos wherepreviously there were only words? Is it a co-incidence that we find a Ted talk a convenient way of11
  12. 12. 12 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANexploring a big idea where previously only a book or New Yorker article would do? Picture ladenentertainment and celebrity stories have been at the heart of the success of MailOnline. With thearrival of Windows 8 we even navigate by pictures these days.Much of this is driven by the explosion of powerful devices made for multimedia with screens thatsee at same resolution as the human eye - but it is also driven by our own impatience.Pictures and videos are often quicker to create and now they are quicker to publish and distributethan an article. And for certain types of stories (e.g. a natural disaster like Hurricane Sandy, floods)they are becoming the default way of telling the news.The big implication of this is that newspapersneed to employ fewer writers and more photographers and video storytellers. The wordsmiths thatremain need to become expert at teeing up a piece of multimedia, at crafting the perfect headline orshort form accompaniment and curating the work of others.Here comes video …One of the most striking aspects of the US election coverage was the TV style election coveragemounted by teams from The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and The Huffington Post. Allare building up digital teams to produce more video news.From sets at the heart of the newsroom, reporters comment on stories as they emerge – a low costbrand extension but one that is targeting growing advertising interest19.WSJ has been equipping reporters with cameras for several years and launched an ambitious newservice in August 2012called Worldstream. Deputy Managing Editor Alan Murray said shooting rawfootage from the ground via smartphone - without lights and production teams - was freeing up and“revolutionising journalism”. The Washington Post has announced a video channel for politics -playing catch-up with Politico.But it is not just traditional news companies making moves in this area. Witnessthe success of Now this News a short form social video news service started bytwo of the Huffington Posts founders. It targets the always-on digital natives19 Currently this is more brand extension than anything else but advertisers spent $2.9 billion in digital video advertising in2012, according to eMarketer, up 47% on last year.12
  13. 13. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 13more likely to stumble across their news on Facebook than NBC and is mobile first. 25 employeesproduce 8 to 10 short videos daily that are distributed via apps, social media and throughdistribution deals with publishing partners like The Guardian and Buzzfeed. Stories are chosen basedon newsworthiness and the likelihood of viral success. "We believe that especially younger peopleare getting their news from social mobile video channels," General Manager Eason Jordan says. Andco-founder, Eric Hippeau adds:“Video is coming into its own and were trying to figure out whatnews content should look like in this format.”And then there’s the tech innovation. Products like GoPro, the world’s most versatile camera20,willincrease the quality and ambition of both UGC and professional video. Tech start ups like ConditionOnewill offer more creative opportunities for video storytelling with its immersive editor and player.And WatchUp can handle aggregation and distribution of content. In 2013 we’ll see more experimentation with short form video –- that will burst the complacency of traditional media companies.This area offers a significant opportunities for newspapers and start-ups to disrupt traditional broadcasters who will find it hard to break free from old formatsOther journalism trends to watchNews streams, bite sized news and real time webA number of companies are experimenting with reordering news to fit the needs of real time,personalisedmobile lifestyles. This is inspired by the success of Twitter and Flipboard butnowpublishers want a slice of the action. Well also see a lot of news companies rethinking how longarticles need to be. Twitter has re-trained people to think in different ways about news and news consumption, and well start to see more experimentation in the space in between 140 characters and a full article, with new UX around this21. Expect to see publishers taking the success of live pages and making them separate products in their own right. In this regard, publishers like the Guardian are looking at what they might do with mobile apps in a way that don’t just replicate the current article based approach. In the States, the Atlantic is showing the way with a slick new ‘mobile first’ business app (it’s actually HTML5), Quartz,built around streams and obsessions. It’s a big play and has 20 journalistic staff - with funding coming from sponsorship as much as advertising. Buzzfeedhas attracted huge interest around its combination of a technologyplatform for detecting viral content with an editorial selection process to provide a snapshot of thebest bits of the viral web. The site had around 40m monthly unique users in December 2012 withover a third of traffic coming from mobile devices.22 Watch Flipboard too for significant20 Adam Smallman – Lloyds List21 Stephen Pinches at FT22 Buzzfeed has just raised a further $20m in funding and plans to increase the amount of original content including video.13
  14. 14. 14 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANimprovements in its ground-breaking products mining the real time world of news - available forAndroid tablets for the first time in 2013. Expect more content deals and new commercial link upswithpublishers.Long form journalism and e-book publishingAt the other end of the spectrum, we’re also seeing a number of attempts to reinvent long-form forthe digital age. This areaalready provides a payment mechanism, proven distribution platforms anddistinct value for the consumer (unlike commodity news)23.Matter is a British start-up founded by Bobbie Johnson and Jim Giles who are trying to find a marketfor investigative, very long, original articles in the fields of technology, medicine, the environmentand science24. They are Kickstarter funded (to the tune of $140,000) - effectively managing to drawin high-profile endorsements and create a social buzz. So far they have produced two investigationswhich can be purchased for 99 cents apiece— via online or as an e-book that can be read on Kindlesor iPads. The design is digital first, simple and uncluttered.The Magazine is another example from the US. Focussing on technology it publishes four mediumlength articles every two weeks for $1.99 a month. Rather than telling readers everything thathappens in technology, The Magazine delivers meaningful editorial and big-picture articles.We’ve already mentioned Snowfallfrom the New York Times – also available as an e-book for $2.99.This multi-part feature attracted 3m visitors to the New York Times (one third of who were newvisitors) to an exhaustive article about an avalanche at Tunnel Creek in early 2012. But this wasn’tjust about John Branch’s investigation; it was an example of visual storytelling at its best from theNYT interactive team. Videos, photos, and graphics were integrated in a way that made multimediafeel natural and useful, not just tacked on25. Other examples of great visual storytelling come fromESPN and Internet music publisher Pitchfork.Many of these ideas involve working closely withtechnical teams and borrow extensively from experimentation with the iPad in recent years. Theyare a far cry from the two-dimensional articles we been so used to on the web.Data scientists and the personalisation of newsExpect to see news companies invest further in harnessing ‘big data’ to produce more personalisedand relevant experiences. Publishers will rely less on their nose and more on hard data about whatpeople actually do with content, says academic and blogger Paul Bradshaw:“That doesnt meanchasing traffic (although some will make that mistake), it means using data to test out products andthe hunches that often drive publishing decisions.”The New York Times, The Daily Mail26, News International and the Guardian are all looking atinterrogating data toimproving relevance (and profitability) this year and several have employeddata scientists to drive insights27.23 Paul Bradshaw24 Hat tip Kevin Hinde (Nature)25 Daily Mail bought CRM company VELTI in 201227 New York Times has a data scientist and the Guardian is recruiting one
  15. 15. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 15Cheap access to analytics tools, running in the data centre or in the cloud, will open new possibilitiesin data analysis but the big gap is the skills one as theEMC2 chart (above) shows based on a recentsurvey.As Alberto Nardelli points out “Big data" will follow a similar trajectory to social last year:“Well stop talking about big data and just use large amounts of data more effectively across sectorsand organisational functions/actions.”CNN is also well placed to do more with big data following their acquisition of Zite last year but haveso far done remarkably little apart from the disappointing CNN trends.Mining and visualising data for newsThere were some standout examplesof this related trend from 2012.ProPublica continues to push the envelope with its free the files appthat aimed to cast light on the dark arts of ad spending in thepresidential election. Volunteers processed hundreds of thousands ofpdfs and other returns to turn these into a consistent database ofactivity in 33 swing states. And they then wrote stories that explained what was happening.Around the Costa Concordia disaster, Lloyds List mined its exclusive databases on shipping movements to prove that the cruise ship had previously steered a course even closer to the Island of Giglio. Data points were plotted and then visualised through Tableau. TheBBC, CNN and many others picked up the resulting scoop. Tools to analyse and visualise data (see also will become ‘must have’ rather than ‘nice to have’ for many publishers in 2013Blogger and academic Paul Bradshaw points to new new data-driven operations like Rafat Alis travelwebsite Skift and fashion data properties like Editd. They see a future where the journalists role isnot to churn out commodity news but to provide the investigation that unearths data, and the15
  16. 16. 16 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANanalysis to make sense of data.If you haven’t invested in these new skills or approaches then now isthe time.2012 brought us news-org-sponsored hack days, new data journalism prizes and the launch of TheData Journalism Handbook28. Decoded is reporting record demand for its course to teach code in aday and have added extra courses for data-visualisation. Once again the Knight Mozilla Open NewsFellows will be bringing their hacker-journalist skills to newsrooms in 2013 in the second year of thisinnovative scheme.Pop up newsBig sites to experiment with unbranded single topic niche news blogs like Syria Deeply. Using theresource and experience of an established newsroom, but decoupled from big production systems,Wordpress/Tumblr or similar can be used to quickly deliver a mobile-optimised standalonewebsite29. The key will be to find the right story …Human curation comes to the foreIn 2012 we saw more examples of cut-through people driven curation services that separate thesignal from the noise. Maria Popova’s Brain Pickingsis “a human-powered discovery engine for interestingness’ which has achieved some kind of lift- off with 1.2m readers per month. Popova’s blog, which thematically links to articles around the web, takes around 5000 hours a year to produce and she says will remain ad free – funded purely by subscriptions30. Dave Pell’s excellent daily newsletter, NextDraft continues to go fromstrength to strength. He says the problem with email has always been the content not the platform -which is why he focuses on adding value: “Im not just cutting and pasting material. I am anchoringthe days news”. For 2013 the service has moved to mobile with a new app optimised for iPhone,iPad and iPad mini.See also Circa – one of our companies to watch in 2013.28 Prediction from Martin Belam (Emblem)30
  17. 17. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 17The business of journalismIn 2012 metered/porous paywalls went from being "experimental" to widely adopted. As theEconomist’s Tom Standage puts it: “A paywall is just a way to charge some readers for some contentsome of the time. In retrospect this will seem obvious.”A recent study suggests there are now morethan 300 US newspaper paywalls – twice asmany as this time last year31. A differentsurvey by the Alliance for Audited Media,which includes the majority of toppublishers in North America, showed 48%of newspapers with a paywall and almost aquarter of consumer magazines32. It isestimated that the introduction of a ‘softmetered paywall’ leads to an average fall in Source: Alliance for Audited Media members survey (United States) 33 December 2012traffic of only around 20% . This means Source: Alliance for Audited Media members survey (United States)online advertising revenue can be largely sustained at the same time as opening up a new revenue December 2012stream.And this is a global trend: newspapers in Brazil, Germany, Canada34 and elsewhere have taken theplunge. In Slovakia, Piano Media is a data driven company that is helping their clients not onlyprovide payment solutions, which are easy, but also decide on which content to charge for.The New York Times, which started the trend in March 2011, has seen the number of digitalsubscribers rise to more than 450,000 at the same time as seeing a rise in daily web visits. 35Significantly, the digital subscription revenue ($56m) – alongside a price rise on print copies – willmake 2012 the first year the Times has earned more from circulation than from advertising.What’s odd is that we have not seen similar trends in the UK. With the exception of the Times,which persists with a ‘hard paywall’ in the face of all reason, and specialist titles like the Economistand FT, other national titles remain free. This will not continue in 2013 and plans are being readiedfor ‘metered models’ as declining circulation and falling print advertising revenues bite.Part of the reason is that digital advertising rates continue to fall to a level that will never sustainsignificant journalistic news operation. In the future newspapers will need to shift away from theirdependence on advertising towards subscription and a range of other income streams. Mary Meekerofinvestment firm, Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers noted in May that CPMs - cost for reaching a31 Oft quoted 550,000 includes IHT32 A handful of publications are using a paywall only for certain types of content (e.g. local news and sports at the Waco Tribune-Herald) ora two-site approach where one is paid and the other is free (as at the Boston Globe).33 JP Morgan study quoted by the Economist The Globe and Mail in Canada introduced a paywall in late October and the Toronto Star launches its version in early 2013.17
  18. 18. 18 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANthousand users - were averaging $3.50 (£2.20) for a desktop web ad and just 75 cents (50p) formobile. That means revenues of just $350 for an article achieving 100,000 page views ($75 formobile).36Commentator and blogger Andrew Sullivan is turning his back on advertising in 2013 – and not justfor economic reasons. He says advertising-based models over the last decade have encouragedblatant ‘traffic whoring’, such as galleries of topless celebrities, or more subtle corruption evident inspecial issues created for advertisers. In a reversal of the consolidation of successful blogs into bigmedia companies, Sullivan has decided to set up on his own again. He is leaving the Daily Beast andtrying to make his blog work on a subscription model with a bit of Kickstarter like funding thrown in.Sullivan has appealed to readers to give more than the standard $19.99 a month - suggesting they’llget more content the more they donate. He’s already talking about a monthly tablet magazine calledthe Daily Depth37.Clearly advertising will remain an important part of the mix though. More important for publishersthat command a niche and attract the right demographics. Wired Magazine reported that digital adsdelivered 50% of all advertising revenue for the first time last year- despite the fact that it still has asubstantial print business38. Most of this (90%) came from the PC web, not from mobiles or tablets.39More than 10% of consumer time is spent with the mobile phone but only 1% of advertising is spentthis way. This gap will close a bit in 2013 but given the small screen the options remain limited. Thevast majority of mobile revenues currently go to Google via text ads (up 160% in the last year) butopportunities for growth come from developingand mobile first formats such as sponsoredmessages in timelines (right)40, sharable ads,video ads and location-based ads which carrymuch higher premiums. Responsive design andinfinite scrolling allow ads to appear as users move down the page – potentially changing the termsof the debate about ‘below the fold’. 41More publishers in 2013 will also experiment with events as a way of driving new revenue fromniche expertise. Advertiser spend is clearly moving from buying a display placementsurrounding editorial content (magazine / website) to paying to be involved ineditorial-driven events. UBM has made the transition from parochial magazinepublishing to global confex company with an impressive range of events in BRICnations42.36 Roy Greenslade article in the Guardian As a comparison that figure was 10% in 2006 when Conde Nast bought Wired.39 Row over APs decision to put ads in its Timeline shows how hard this will be41 UBM is also leading the trend of editorial projects with commercial aims, as seen in its Client Solutions Division and theTechWeb unit in America18
  19. 19. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 19This is a growth area for consumer magazines and newspapers too. The Guardian and Times havebeen experimenting with training and conferences for some time with limited success43.There will be many stumbles along the way but the funding of journalism looks like a complex mix ofbusinesses and revenue streams - what John Paton CEO of Digital First calls the ‘stacking of digitaldimes’.Specific predictions The Washington Post and at least two national UK newspapers join the metered paywall club in 2013 Further cost rationalisation across the media in 2013 as market realities drag down the offline and online advertising economies. We’ll see consolidation in the national UK newspaper market and more regionals will go from daily to weekly, following recent moves by Johnston Press and Newsquest, with yet more titles closing. In B2B publishing a whole plethora of titles will either shut their print editions or take weeklies to monthly. 44Digital advertising and marketing“Advertising innovation from media companies should become as critical as content innovation” – sosay the WSJ’s Raju Narisetti .45Too many news organisations have for too long looked at the highreturns from print and scoffed at the low margins in digital while companies like Google created adominant position in digital advertising. “If news organisations dont begin to compete aggressivelyfor digital advertising, they will either have to develop alternate revenue streams or fail”, says digitalstrategist Kevin Anderson. “They have wasted more than a decade dithering when it comes to digital revenue, and they cant afford to waste a second more.” This point is emphasised by the chart below from the Economist which shows how newspapers have failed to capitalise on rapidly increasing digital spend partly because sales teams have been locked into antiquated KPIs and have commission structures that reward print over digital. In the future media companies need to embrace the opportunities of digital, need to break down barriers between commercial and editorial team and need to hire more of those data-savvy advertising professionals and statisticians who can understand, analyse and package their audience data into coherent products and campaigns. There are some signs that publishers are increasingly starting toditch the age-old, print-era idea of reach = success and focus insteadon high value journeys and high43 The Guardian’s Open Weekend project made a sizeable loss.44 Thanks to Patrick Smith of Media Briefing for some of the insights in this and the next section.45
  20. 20. 20 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANvalue customers.The trading of display advertisements online is becoming more data-driven,targeted, real-time and efficient. We’ll see a big shift in the direction of real-time bidding (RTB)46.eBay was aiming to put 40% of its online ad budget into RTB by the end of 2012, with more than 70% of its US budget already being spent that way. Netflix is an enthusiastic buyer of display ads butnearly 100% of its budget is programmatic.Patrick Smith at Media Briefing notes that data analysis, RTB and programmatic are “in no way asaviour or a route to higher margins, yields and revenues, but they are a way to take back controlfrom low value ad networks which serve irrelevant, annoying, bottom-feeder banner ads todisinterested consumers.”More widely we could see some progress on better online metrics. The industry standard ABCmeasures have become increasingly criticised for over-counting online usage47. They are also overlyfocussed on one part of the media sector. Advertisers and the industry in general are looking to takea holistic view of consumption habits offline and online such the National Readership Surveyinitiatives. Expect more publishers to leave ABC for more credible and multiplatform ways ofmeasuring total audience behaviour48.Organising the digital enterpriseSo in the face of these changes, how should companies organise for digital success? PWC’s globalmedia outlook report 49 says that we are at the “end of the digital beginning as companies reshapeand retool for life in the new normal".Successful companies need to be agile and responsive. They need to work horizontally instead/aswell as vertically. We’re seeing new roles like product management, user experience and dataanalysis - and new cross-disciplinary units to drive innovation (e.g. the New York Times interactiveteam). Editorial and commercial teams are beginning to talk and collaborate.With digital now at the core of business-as-usual, PWC believes that experimentation and executionare no longer sequential but will proceed in parallel. Not many traditional companies are set up todo that. Nor are they set up to attract and retain the right people, as Econsultancy CEO AshleyFriedlein points out in his blog: “Start-ups, and internet companies like Google, have been cleverlyluring the best digital talent for years. It seems only recently that bigger ‘traditional’ players havewoken up to just what a problem they have in attracting and retaining digital talent”.Perhaps this year we’ll see an end to unrealistic targets and restructures that undermine morale –and a renewed focus on mechanisms that value all staff - editorial, technical, design and commercial– with rewards for initiative, performance and innovation.46 The FT, Centaur and UBM’s built environment titles use PwC metric to monitor readers cross various print and digitalplatforms.49
  21. 21. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 21Policy and regulationWhile the Leveson report focussed almost exclusively on the historic behaviour of the press, thisyear we can expect the focus to switch to forward looking issues raised by convergence and the riseof the Internet.With audiences demanding that news brands communicate across television, radio and online, itmakes less and less sense to have regulation divided by platform. The press will have its new postLeveson system, broadcasters and telecoms have Ofcom, the BBC has yet another regulator andonline has no rules at all – despite its huge importance as a source of news and the growing powerof online gateways. The much delayed new Communications Bill is supposed to be dealing withsome of these issues, but a major legislative process every decade (the last one was in 2003) seemshardly fit for purpose given the speed of developments. There are a number of big issues bubblingaway … The ownership of UK media institutions; how to recalibrate the nature of influence and ensure plurality in the new multimedia landscape The increasing dominance of US technology companies (Amazon, Google, Facebook) over gateways to news/books/TV etc The declining economic prospects for newspapers and the implications for investigative and watchdog journalism The viability of maintaining legislative underpinning for impartial television news in a digital age – as video news takes off on the unregulated internetWe can expect much heat but little light on these big issues with a renewed focus on the future ofthe BBC Trust following the leadership crisis thrown up by the Savile revelations.In the long-term, logic dictates a coherent approach to media regulation together with a singleapproach to journalistic ethics for all professional news organisations along with a simple andtransparent process of audience redress. That won’t happen this year or any time soon.What we can guarantee is continuing rows about privacy on two counts. There are governmentattempts all over the world to increase their power to monitor our electronic conversations (email,social media etc). Here in the UK, the Data Communications Bill is being redrafted following heatedrows first time round. Plans to get ISPs and mobile phone companies to track and store all users’activity were roundly criticised as impractical and an unprecedented invasion of privacy. But thegovernment is committed to pressing ahead, seeing the bill as a crucial weapon in tackling terrorism,serious crime and paedophilia50.More widely there’ll be pressure on major companies to be clearer and more transparent about theextent of their snooping on our behaviour. The EU’s cookie directive has done nothing to reduce adsthat follow you round the web – just adding to the clutter of pop-ups that we can’t wait to close.There’ll be more unwanted ads in your social media timelines this year and a growth in mobile spam.50
  22. 22. 22 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANWith big companies continuing to push the boundaries in pursuit of profit expect pressure to growfor more consumer protection against unwanted intrusion.On the legal front, we can expect more calls to end “mob rule” and “trial by Twitter” (Lord Leveson’swords). The Twitter prosecutions of Sally Bercow and others following the naming of Lord McAlpinewill play out with potential settlements running into many thousands of pounds. If you have under500 followers, it looks like you are safe to say whatever you like, but by year end there’ll be agrowing realisation that what is said on social media is not beyond the law. Look out for more highprofile Twitter and Facebook prosecutions along with new social media education programmes inschools and workplaces.Finally there is the regulation of the Internet itself. Can it remain free and open for all or shouldcountries, ISPs or mobile phone companies have the right to filter content or levy charges on it?These issues were raised and seen off at the World Conference on telecommunications last year –but they’ll be back along with discussions about a new overarching governance structure for anInternet which is no longer dominated by the US and Europe.Local TV and public service broadcastingJeremy Hunt may have left the Department of Culture Media and Sport but his "big idea" lives onand comes to fruition in 2013. Nineteen (19) towns and cities will get a ‘licence to broadcast’ fromOfcom but are likely to find the speed of digital change has made this type of operation largelyirrelevant to most audiences. Video is growing in importance, but not distributed in this way51.Outside the UK, we are seeing the beginning of the end of the era of public service broadcasting –certainly as currently constituted. Unlike the BBC, most European PSBs have proved unable toweather the storms of competition and have lost broad public support. As a result, they havebecome easy pickings for politicians looking for budget cuts. Jonathan Marks from consultancyCritical Distance sees their future as ‘government sponsored narrowcasters’ and says some genreslike drama will only be produced in a handful of countries52.Four new technologies to watch …1. The wearable web and augmented reality (the fifth screen?)This year the phone will start to control what we see and what we wear. Vuzix smart glasses(available this year) are visual displays that take augmented reality to the next stage. Now you don’tneed to look under the table to get the football results – they can be beamed directly to your eyes.Face recognition linked to Facebook or LinkedIn can provide an instant biography at a party – savingmuch embarrassment or providing useful lines for a potential business opportunity.51 Jonathan Marks Critical Distance52
  23. 23. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 23Google has already demonstrated something similar (Google Glass) but that won’t be market readyuntil 2014.Initially the focus for Google Glass is lessabout augmented reality and more of a wearablewireless camera that allows you to record and share images and videos – along with pushnotifications related to email and the wearers location53.The final shape will become clear by the spring when a developer version will be released ($1500)but the company is wrestling with issues such as video display, battery life – as well as the mix offunctionality and style that could make wearable computing the next big thing. Apple and Microsofthave also obtained patents for augmented reality displaysOther smartphone driven connected screens involve the return of the smart watch. Pebble(Kickstarter funded) is set for big success with devices which can receive emails and calls, controlmusic and track your movement when running. The watches cost about £100 and there are already85,000 pre-orders.This year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was stuffed with gadgets and applications tohelp you lose weight or track your fitness regime – linking health based sensors with smartphonesand cloud-based analysis.And for the more flamboyant there are dresses implanted withelectronic displays that project your latest social media updatesonto the fabric. These clothes are becoming softer and morecomfortable every year and already go through the washingmachine. This is the year when they become more affordablebut not necessarily more socially acceptable.53
  24. 24. 24 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMAN2. Machine interaction breakthroughs2013 will see breakthroughs in the way we interact with machines. Leap Motionis a new technology,which will enable you to interact with your computer using gestures. Even better - the controller isthe size of an iPod and costs less than $70. Leap Motion’s technology can track movements to1/100th millimetre—smaller than the tip of a pin—with no visible lag time. The Leap Motioncontroller has a 150-degree field of view, and tracks individual hands and all 10 fingers at 290 framesper second.It is pre-shipping now as a stand-alone unit but the real value will come when it getsintegrated into devices and applications moving touchscreens to the next level (gesturescreens).54Leap Motion started 2013 with a new funding round worth $30m and a deal with ASUS who will beone of the first manufacturers to bundle the technologies into its high-end notebooks and PCs.Other innovations to watch in this area include further progress with driverless cars. Toyota andAudi are showcasing test models at CES while Google already has a fleet of a dozen testing onprivate tracks in the US and the occasional public road55. Nevada was the firstUS States to offer a public license in 2012. Despite polls showing widespreadconsumer resistance to the idea, Google co-founder Sergey Brin said thecompany “will have autonomous cars available for the general public withinfive years”. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)anticipates that driverless cars will account for up to 75 per cent of cars on theroad by 2040.563. Indoor LocationWe spend most of our time indoors – at home, in shops, offices and restaurants – where GPS doesntwork or is not sufficiently accurate to be useful. New indoor positioning technologies will enable youto pinpoint the exact location of a painting in an art gallery or items on your shopping list – all viayour smartphone.IndoorAtlas uses magnetic variations found naturally inside buildings to senselocation. Bytelite manages location in relation to LED ceiling lights.WifiSLAMuses ambient Wi-Fisignals. Whatever the technology, opportunities for advertisers include targeted promotions orcoupons at the time they will have most impact.4. 3D Printers come of age54 Hat tip to Stephen Pinches at the FT for this one55
  25. 25. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 253D printers aren’t new nor are they particularly expensive – youcan get them for less than £400. But until now it hasnt beenpossible to do professional quality printing on that kind ofbudget. Now a group of MIT graduates have replicated the mostexpensive laser-optic manufacturing techniques in a device (theFORM1) that fits neatly on the desktop. Watch out in 2013 forFormlabs which has also crowdfunded its working capital –raising almost $300,000 via Kickstarter - meaning it doesn’t have to sell its soul to venture capitalists.3D printing will spawn new businesses for designers and fashion creatives. It will also and trigger anew round of copyright wars with designs being bought, sold, traded, ripped, mixed and stolen57.Watch also Shapeways, Ponoko and Sculpteo.Crowdfunding, peer- to-peer lending and innovation in banking and financial servicesIt’s looking like a difficult year for those who’ve been making a pretty living out of financial advice.Banks and traditional institutions are under pressure as never before. New legislation is forcing moretransparency at the same time as a new wave of tech start ups are ready to repeat the kind ofinternet disruption we’ve already seen in the music business and the travel industry.Funding Circle is a peer-to-peer marketplace, which puts savers in touch with borrowers looking forlow cost loans. Lancashire Council is using the website to sidestep the banks and pump prime smalllocal businesses to the tune of around £100,000. Funding Circle has already lent around £70m withgross returns averaging over 9% for lenders.In the US, SoFi is transforming the student loan industry by connecting student and graduateborrowers with alumni investors economically and socially. Whilst further afield, Lenddo combinescommunity-based microfinance techniques with social media data, pioneering a new approach toserve the underbanked.57 Prediction Paul Branna (Digital consultant)25
  26. 26. 26 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMANMore generally watch out this year for and explosion of crowdfunding sites and schemes this year.Kickstarter launched in the UK in November 2012 and has already driven more than £2m of pledgesfor 400 projects. Kickstarter has already been used to fund a significant number of journalismprojects including Homicide watch in Washington DC, the funding of a blog network for reliablesource in Southern Sudan, and a Spanish language podcast.Other Successful schemes include the Ostrich pillow for sleeping on the go(raised £150,000)andBamboo underwear, made from recycled wood, paper and empowerment – “making the luxuryunderwear market interesting”.Mobile banking and mobile walletsMeanwhile for consumers increasing amounts of our life will be controlled with our mobiles in 2013.One by one, bank cards, loyalty cards, travel cards and boarding passes are being sucked out of ourphysical wallets and becoming integrated into smartphone software. That means new challenges forthe credit card companies.Watch for the mobile operators in the UK -- EE, O2 and Vodafone – whohave teamed up to provide a single mobile marketing and wallet service for smartphones this year.Competition comes from Google and also form Facebook which will launch a "buy button" - similarto its "Like" button but to purchase using FB currency across web, mobile and offline58. Others in thespace (Zopa, Square etc.) will continue to grow with Squarefounded by Jack Dorsey tipped for IPO in2013. InAuth recently introduced a voice authentication module for mobile banking and as newprocessors deliver greater computational power biometric entry to services using voice, fingerprintor iris recognition will start to replace passwords59.Online shoppingExpect astellar year for online retail partly driven by mobile and apps, partly by lack of choice on thehigh street. Electrical goods, books and media remain the frontier. Jessops was the first to go intoadministration but we’ll also see thelast big CD and DVD retail chain,HMV, leave the highstreetforcing purchasers to download or buy from supermarkets. The brand will be sold off to an58 Prediction from Alberto Nardelli59 Hat top Paul Brannan26
  27. 27. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 27online retailer. Watch also how many retailers reduce their physical footprint but team up withsupermarkets and others to provide more ‘click and collect’ services instead.Universities are changing too …Massive Open Online Courses (Moocs) were the most talked about trend in education technology in2012. In the United States, New players like Coursera, Udacity and edX have already recruitedmillions of students to hundreds of degree-style courses from top-name institutions like Stanfordand MIT - all for free.60 12 universities in the UK including Bristol and Kings College London will startdoing the same this year. Students generally receive a certificate for completing the online courses,but do not receive academic credit toward any conventional degree qualification.Is this economic folly – undermining the core business of higher education? Or is it smart marketingby a set of forward-looking institutions thinking about the opportunities of global markets and life-long learning? Either way it is the start of another major upheaval driven by the Internet that is likelyto have long-term implications for future education provision.Companies to watch in 20131. Yahoo: With ex-Googler Marissa Mayer at the helm, Yahoo couldturn a corner with its strongfocus on consumer-friendly tech products. Flickr could benefit if people are looking for a user-friendly alternative to Facebook-owned Instagram.2. Tesco: Is in a good position to capitalise on the collapse of high street retailers but they are alsoare spending serious money online trying to compete with Amazon. They have a new innovationsunit in Farringdon61. Watch for new apps by summer and innovations from shopping to finance.3. YouView/BT Sport:You View is already a good consumer proposition but will pick up surprisingtraction as BT62 and TalkTalk take it to mainstream audiences. A big driver will be BT’s new sportschannels leveraging broadcast rights to 38 live Premier League football matches from 2013 to 2016,as well as Aviva Premiership Rugby. Both Sky and Virgin suffer and will spend more on advertisingjust to retain subscriptions.4. News Corp: The new "old" media firm has new top leadership and an excellent technical teamand people who are innovative about business models5. Al Jazeera: They have just spent $300-500m getting access to around 40 million US homes withthe purchase of the ailing Current TV. Expect them to create programming specifically for the USmarket – not just to pump out their core news channel.60 Hat tip from Kevin Hinde (Nature) Hat tip Jonathan Austin (BBC)62 th BT launched its YouView box on 20 September and will roll out to customers
  28. 28. 28 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMAN6. Russia Today: Has proved a master at creating controversy on social media sites. The 30 milliondollar a year network has more influence than Chinese counterpart CCTV, France 24 or the ailing USgovernment-funded networks like VOA, RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty. Journalistic quality may bevariable but it’s a conversation starter.Fivefor the future …1. Tout:An app that allows you to create short 15 second video updates onyour life. This is trying to do what Twitter has done for text and pictures.Constrain the length and drive creativity. The Wall Street Journal is alreadyusing it to power its ‘Worldstream’ service. also Snapchat and Poke (the Facebook version) for photos- already wildlypopular with the younger generation. Also Spreecast, a social platform forface to face conversation.2. Circa:News without the fluff, filler, or commentary. Circa’s editors gather top stories and breakthem down to their essential points -- facts, quotes, photos, and more. It’s a bit like Ceefax really butimplemented with considerably more style and for a mobile lifestyle. Zeebox: CNN’s Peter Bale is tipping Zeebox to have a breakthrough year in the world ofcompanion TV. It’s done well in the US (1m downloads in 3 months) but has surprisingly failed togain traction in the UK. Sky has now integrated Zeebox second-screen platform into the Sky+ iPadapp making it easier to interact in one place. Expect more tie-ups with other broadcasters this year +audio (music) recognition linked to TV programmes. Is an application that allowssubscribers to view live as well as time-shifted streams of over-the-air television on any Internet-connected device. It aggregates all the major broadcasters by usinga legal loophole whereby it leases each subscriber a remote antenna, which is stored in a data centrein Brooklyn. Expanding from NY to 22 cities across America and will be hugely disruptive along theway. Unlikely to make it across the pond any time soon – though it is a bit like YouView without theneed for a box. PeerJ: One of a number of open access publishers who are shaking up the closed world ofacademia. PeerJ’s twist is to give scholars working in biological and medical sciences a ‘lifetime right’to publish articles and make them freely available – in exchange for a single one-offpayment.Governments, institutions, and funders across the world are increasingly mandating andencouraging open access and this is one twist in a process which is likely to lead to the vast majorityof academic content is published under an open access licence. thanks to …I am indebted to all of the below for their generous insights28
  29. 29. JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 29Tom Standage (Economist), Peter Bale (CNN), Stephen Pinches (FT), Steve Herrmann, RichardCooper, Jonathan Austin (BBC), Julian March, Paul Dale, James Mickelthwait (ITV), Ashley Friedlein(Econsultancy),John O’Donovan (PA), Adam Smallman (Lloyds List Group), Alberto Nardelli(Tweetminster), Martin Belam (Emblem), Anthony Sullivan, Laura Oliver (Guardian), Kevin Hinde,Tom Scott (Nature Publishing Group), Paul Brannan (Digital Consultant), Paul Bradshaw (Academic,Help Me Investigate), Patrick Smith (Media, Madhav Chinnappa (Google), KevinAnderson (Digital strategist, Knowledge Bridge), Andrew Betts (Assanka), Matt Locke (Storythings),Jonathan Marks (Critical Distance),Max Gadney (After The Flood), Nicolas Flores (Digital Strategist) Nic Newman is a Digital Strategist and former BBC journalist and New Media executive. He is Associate Fellow at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford University and Senior Research Fellow at City University London. Twitter: @nicnewman Email: LinkedIn: A – Some of last year’s predictions assessed1. Most explosive year yet for tablets with estimated sales of more than 100m unitsNot exactly difficult butthe number was pretty close. Gartner reports worldwide tablet sales were up98% to 118.9 million units. This chart shows that the PC market has completely stalled and all thegrowth is coming from tablets. We’ve already mentioned our other correct prediction that we’d seethe first £99 tablet in the UK2. Google unveils an iPad killer in the first half of 2012 reducing Apple market share to 50%The Nexus 7 arrived in June if that counts with the Nexus 10 in October. It was warmly reviewed andwas selling about 1m a month in October. Apple still dominates with 56% market share but falling.29
  30. 30. 30 JOURNALISM MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2013 NIC NEWMAN3. Apple launches a new disruptive TV initiative towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.63 Keydifferentiators will be Siri voice technology and iCloud integration.Not – yet but we’re holding it over for a bit later in 20134. Publishers make significant investments in richer content– moving beyond newspaper toofferings with more video and greater interactivity.Lots more video esp WSJ Worldstream, HuffPoLive etc (see section above)5. We’ll start to move from social as a companion to TV to true social television. By years endmost big live shows (>5m audience) are driving to their own second screen experience.Significant movement. ITV reporting 250,000 concurrent users for Britain’s Got Talent second screen forexample6. Olympics: Triumph for new adaptive http streaming technologies (HLS, HDS and MPEG DASH).This allows more efficient and scalable streaming, faster start up and opportunities to cache livestreamsMore than 1 million concurrent users to a single stream and in 2.8 petabytes on the busiest day withthe peak traffic moment occurring when Bradley Wiggins won Gold at 700 Gb/s.7. More publishers move towards responsive design across phones and tabletsIt’s been a big trend as mentioned above. There is more on the way along with the move to html5mobile/tablet sites in addition to a more conventional desktop.8. Watch intelligent social news readers (Zite, Linked in top news, Flipboard). Twitter makes bigmoves here too – delivering its first news aggregation productsTwitter vastly improved its discovery interface around news, introduced weekly news round upsbased on a start-up it bought --- and are pushing further in this direction this year9. EU cookies law makes little differenceFew ignored the directive, as we suggested they might, but the ‘carry on to view’ popups ensuredthat no-one read the small print and cookies continue as before complete with all those annoying adsthat follow you round the web10. Linked data and the semantic web moves further to mainstreamThis remains a slow burn with ups and downs along the way. The data market service from Talis,called Kasabi, was pulled. We did see more moves towards ‘semantic google’ though with featuressuch as the entity results box, author searches - working out more about the structure of thecontent than just the links and the HTML. More quiet progress next year.63