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AQGR and Climate Change (Aquaculture and fisheries) reduced

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AQGR and Climate Change (Aquaculture and fisheries) reduced

  1. 1. Roger Pullin and Patrick White Aquatic Genetic Resources and Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation
  2. 2. 24 – 27 October 2007 WAS Istanbul - Competing Claims And they call this planet Earth ?
  3. 3. Carbon Cycle FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA 2010).
  4. 4. Climate change stressors Short-term fluctuations Seasonal patterns Precipitation Severe storms Temperature Winds Long term change Sea Level Rise Ocean currents Warming Acidification Freshwater availability Impacts on aquatic environments Impacts on aquatic ecosystems Impacts on aquatic species Impacts on aquaculture Impacts on fisheries Roles of aquatic resources for adaptation and mitigation Conclusions, recommendations and priority actions Regional implications Africa Latin America/ Caribbean North America Asia Europe Oceania Report structure
  5. 5. Climate change - Increase in variance Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b)
  6. 6. Climate change - Increase in mean Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b)
  7. 7. Increase in mean and variance Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b)
  8. 8. Historical temperature change IPCC 2001
  9. 9. Average Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Content
  10. 10. Increasing acidification of the ocean (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) • Dissolved CO2 forms a weak acid • pH decreases as dissolved CO2 increases • Direct observations of pH over last two decades show pH decreases of about 0.02 units per decade • Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface pH of 0.14 to 0.35 units over the 21st century • Bad news for marine organisms which use aragonite and calcite to build shells European Station for Time Series in the Ocean (29˚N, 15˚W) Hawaii Ocean Time Series (23˚N, 158˚W) Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Study (32˚N, 64˚W)
  11. 11. Ocean acidification
  12. 12. Seasonal pattern change • Rainy season starting early / late • Hot season starting early / late • Rains during dry season • Dry during rainy season
  13. 13. Expected Changes in Environmental Parameters in 2050 Climate zone Surface Temp. (°C) Bottom Temp. (°C) Salinity ppt Bottom Salinity Ice concentration (%) Arctic +0.7 +1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -9 Temperate N +0.4 +0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -2 Subtropical N +1.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.0 0 Tropical +1.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0 Subtropical S +0.5 +0.3 -0.2 0 0 Temperate S +0.4 +0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 Antarctic +0.7 +0.5 -0.2 0.0 -3 13 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium
  14. 14. Key aquatic habitats Fisheries and aquaculture are dependent on a number of key aquatic habitats that are affected by Climate Change • Coral reefs • Sea grass beds • Mangroves • Agricultural wetlands • Flooded forests
  15. 15. Coral reefs – Provide food and shelter for an estimated 25% of known marine fish species – Indicator (Bleaching) of ecological impacts of short term Climate Change • Susceptible to – Ocean acidification – Increasing seawater temperature – Precipitation patterns – river plumes – Strong waves and currents – Sea level rise – Extreme weather events
  16. 16. Coral bleaching Photo by Nicolas Bailly, FishBase, Philippines, 2010
  17. 17. Coral reefs • Ocean acidification – Affect coral growth and recruitment • Precipitation – Low tolerance of salinity change – Prone to increasing water run off and sediment plumes • Temperature and ENSO – Increase in temperature by 1-3 deg C can trigger coral bleaching – Recovery is possible to various extents, with time
  18. 18. Sea grasses – Important nursery grounds for juvenile fish – Important feeding grounds – Some species are very slow growing; e.g., Posidonia • Susceptible to • Temperature – Increasing seawater temperature; e.g., Mediterranean – Large temperature fluctuations – Extreme heat waves
  19. 19. Mangroves – Important spawning and nursery grounds – Provide coastal protection • Susceptible to – Sea level rise • Increasing salinity • Increased flooding • Move range inland if possible (needs time) – Extreme weather events • Tropical storms and typhoons – damage • Remove peat deposits • Bring sulphide-rich sediments to surface
  20. 20. Anticipated impacts and negative outcomes for fisheries Adapted from Allison (2009) Ocean current change ENSO Sea level rise Rainfall River flow Lake levels Temperature changes Storm severity Storm frequency Acidification Species composition, productivity, species distribution, diseases, coral bleaching, calcifiers Catch effort, safety at sea, fishing areas Increased operational costs, reduction in livelihoods, loss and damage, displacement, food security Climate change Negative Outcomes Degraded production ecology Impoverished communities and livelihoods Higher risk fishing operations Wider societal and economical burdens Adaptation costs, market impacts, water resource allocation Impacts
  21. 21. Fisheries – inland fisheries – Fragmented populations (especially freshwater) – High genetic diversity • Susceptible to – Temperature fluctuations – changes in lake water stratification – Precipitation – river flows – Low dissolved oxygen – Lake and reservoir turnover – Water quality changes – Changes in connectivity of waters
  22. 22. Fisheries – Inland fisheries Impacts • Temperature – Water stratification – species composition – Breeding timing and cues – Evapotranspiration – water levels – Poleward/upstream range changes or extinctions • Precipitation – Water flows – droughts, water levels, habitat loss, – salt water intrusion – range loss – fish yields lower and unpredictable • Glacial melt – dry season river flows – Higher nutrient / pollutant levels – fish yields
  23. 23. Fisheries – Inland fisheries Impacts • Sea level rise – Saltwater intrusion – estuaries, deltas, rivers – Reduce FW habitats especially deltas • Lake water levels – range loss – reduced reproduction – fish yields lower and unpredictable • Wind pattern changes – change in water mixing – change in yields (natural productivity and fisheries) •Great regional variation among river basins
  24. 24. Coastal fisheries • Fishing yield per km2 per year
  25. 25. Fisheries – Coastal fisheries • Vulnerable ecosystems – Sea grass beds – Wetlands – Estuaries – Coral reefs – Mangroves • Susceptible to – Seawater temperature change – Freshwater run off and nutrient plumes – Coastal currents change – Extreme events/storms – Impacts on coastal ecosystems
  26. 26. Fisheries – Coastal fisheries Impacts • Temperature change and fluctuation – Spawning aggregations, initiation of spawning – Early pelagic life stage - survival – Change in natural range polewards • Coastal current change – Early pelagic life stage – range and survival • Sensitive ecosystems – Temperature/pH – coral bleaching – Reduced reef fish yields, reduced abundance of small fish
  27. 27. Fisheries – Pelagic fisheries • Susceptible to – Temperature – increasing – Rainfall/water discharge – sediment plumes – Changes in ENSO fluctuations affect industrial fisheries Impacts • Temperature – increasing – Changes in range polewards
  28. 28. Fisheries – Pelagic fisheries Impacts • Rainfall/water discharge – sediment plumes – Primary productivity and yield • Changes in ENSO fluctuations – Peruvian anchoveta (for fishmeal and fish oil) and tropical tunas – Increased year to year catch variability
  29. 29. Fisheries – Marine demersal – Mainly on continental shelves • Susceptible to – Temperature increase • Impacts – Natural range change poleward – Change in zooplankton prey affecting yield; e.g., copepods on cod recruitment and abundance
  30. 30. Fisheries – Highly migratory – Eels – Salmon – Sturgeons – Tuna • Susceptible to – Seasonal pattern change – Precipitation - river flow change; droughts/floods – Changes in currents – Change in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
  31. 31. Fisheries – Highly migratory Impacts • Seasonal pattern change – Environmental variables used as migratory cues – migrate earlier or later • Temperature increase, surface temperature anomalies, NAO – Affect range of the species – Affect the migration route and extent • Precipitation - river flow change – Restricts upstream migration (e.g., salmon) • Current direction and strength – Effects distribution and range (e.g., eels) – strength and position of Gulf Stream
  32. 32. Fisheries – Culture-based fisheries • Freshwater – Restocking lakes and reservoirs (e.g., carps, tilapias, coregonids) • Marine – Stock enhancement/ranching (e.g., scallops) • Conservation (e.g., sturgeons) • Introductions and alien species (e.g., carps, tilapias, Nile perch
  33. 33. Aquaculture
  34. 34. Top fed aquaculture & livestock producers – 2008 APR 10.59% since 1980 APR 2.59% since 1980 (FAO – FISHSTAT/FAOSTAT, 2010) Fisheries and aquaculture supply 114 million tonnes of fish for food (SOFIA 2010)
  35. 35. Aquaculture – seed supply • Wild seed based aquaculture • Fish – eels, tunas, milkfish, etc. • Molluscs – oysters, mussels, clams • Seaweeds – Susceptible to • pH, temperature increase and fluctuations, water current change – Impacts • Recruitment, larval distribution, larval survival • Hatcheries – Impacts • Water quality; breeding cycles; egg development
  36. 36. Aquaculture – FW Ponds • Freshwater ponds (shallow) – Fish ( e.g., carps, catfishes, tilapias, charrs, trout) – Crustaceans (freshwater prawns) • Susceptible to – Droughts, floods, changes in precipitation, saltwater intrusions, temperature increases, temperature fluctuations • Impacts – Natural productivity, fish stress, growth rate, survival
  37. 37. Aquaculture – Brackish water and marine ponds • Shallow ponds – Fish milkfish, mullets – Crustaceans – prawns • Susceptible to – Temperature, intense rainfall, storm surge, floods • Impacts – Natural productivity, fish stress, growth rate, survival
  38. 38. Aquaculture - tanks and raceways • Gravity flow – Salmonids (e.g., trout) • Pumped – eels, catfishes, tilapias, ornamental species • Susceptible to – Water supply change – Changes in ambient water quality (pH, temperature, water flow, etc.) • Impacts – Fish stress, disease, productivity Recirculation can reduce vulnerability
  39. 39. Aquaculture - cages and pens • Sheltered – FW (lakes/reservoirs/rivers) – carps, tilapias, – BW/M (bays/lagoons) – milkfish, groupers, snappers, seabass • Exposed/offshore – M – salmon, seabass, seabream • Susceptible to – Sheltered – oxygen levels, overturn – Exposed - storms/squalls and typhoons/hurricanes (increasing intensity and frequency) • Impacts – FW – oxygen levels, productivity – M – facility damage, interruption of activity, fish loss/escape
  40. 40. Aquaculture - rafts and ropes • Rafts – Oysters, mussels, scallops • Ropes – Mussels, seaweeds • Susceptible to – pH decrease, water quality change, circulation change, storms/squalls and typhoons/hurricanes (increasing frequency and intensity) • Impacts – Recruitment (range and survival), productivity, structural damage
  41. 41. Aquaculture - tidal culture • tidal flats/mud flats – clams, oysters, mussels • Susceptible to – extreme temperature, temperature fluctuations, pH change, – sea level rise, storms, storm surges, (change of substrate type) • Impacts – recruitment, culture range, production loss
  42. 42. Aquaculture - Integrated Farming and Integrated Multi-Trophic Level Aquaculture (IMTA) • Integrated Farming – Fish/livestock – ducks, chickens – Fish/crop – rice/shrimp – Fish/nutrient waste – feedlot systems • IMTA – Fish – fed nutrient input – Mollusc – extractive particulate nutrients – Seaweed – extractive dissolved nutrients Spreading risk among enterprises and products
  43. 43. Preliminary Analysis – Aqua Maps • 342 marine fishes with verified maps • Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 • Only core habitat considered (P > 0.5) Current Species richness Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium
  44. 44. Preliminary Analysis – Aqua Maps • 342 marine fishes with verified maps • Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 • Only core habitat considered (P > 0.5) Predicted Species Richness 2050 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium
  45. 45. Preliminary Analysis – Aqua Maps • 342 marine fishes with verified maps • Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 • Only core habitat considered (P > 0.5) Drop in Species Richness Current-2050 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium
  46. 46. More Losers than Winners suitable habitats 0 30 60 90 120 150 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Changeinarea(%) Count Change in area of suitable habitat between 2000 and 2050 for 342 marine fishes. Median loss of area is 6% (95% CL 3.8 – 7.4), significantly different from zero. Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium
  47. 47. Deeper is Better Change in area by preferred habitat of marine species. For 41 deep sea fishes, the median change of +2% (95% CL -0.9 – +3.7. For 103 demersal fishes, median loss is 3% (95% CL -6.5 - -0.9). For 31 benthopelagic fishes, the median loss of 3.3% (95% CL -12 – 3.8. For 55 pelagic fishes, the median loss is 13% (95% CL -17 - -2.9). For 112 reef-associated fishes, the median loss is 10% (-17 - -6.5). -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1bathy 2dem 3bpel 4pel 5reef Changeinarea(%) Deep sea fish +2.0% Demersal fish -3.0% Benthopelagic -3.3% Reef fish -10% Pelagic fish -13%
  48. 48. Polar and Tropical Fishes Lose Change in area by climate zone. For 43 deep sea species, the median change is not significantly different from zero (median 1.8, 95% CL -2.5 – 3.7). Of five polar species, three lose 9 to 32% of suitable area. For 50 temperate species, median change is +2.3% (95% CL -0.1 – 4.0). For 112 subtropical species, the median loss is 7% (95% CL 3.8 – 13) and for 132 tropical species the median loss is 9% (95% CL 7 – 15). -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1deep 2polar 3temp 4sub 5tropical Changeinarea(%) Deep sea fish 0% Polar fish -9 to -32% Temperate +2.3% Sub-tropical -7.0% Tropical fish -9.0%
  49. 49. Change in fisheries catch Projected changes in averaged maximum catch potential from 2005 to 2055 by the 20 Exclusive Economic Zone regions with the highest catch in the 2000s Source: Pew Sea around us project – Fisheries, Ecosystems and Biodiversity
  50. 50. Vulnerability - Fisheries More vulnerable Less vulnerable Inland Marine Shallow water Deep water Long pelagic stage Short pelagic stage Complicated life cycle Simple life cycle Long generation time Short generation time Narrow tolerance range Wide tolerance range Sessile species Mobile species Less fecundity Great fecundity
  51. 51. Vulnerability - aquaculture More vulnerable Less vulnerable Freshwater Marine water Shallow water Deep water Wild fry/seed collection Hatchery production Long culture cycle Short culture cycle Narrow tolerance range Wide tolerance range High trophic level species Low trophic level species
  52. 52. Probable outcomes of climate change on aquatic genetic resources for major taxa Taxa Warming Acidification Elevated N, P Microalgae With increased nutrients, algal blooms are enhanced; oxygen is periodically depleted Calcite formation is reduced; e.g., in coccolithophores Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms, including red tides are enhanced Macroalgae; freshwater macrophytes Enhanced biomasses, with increased nutrients; periodic oxygen depletion due to die-offs; thermal stratification is increased Coralline algae are reduced and more susceptible to diseases and grazing Eutrophication and biomasses increase Crustaceans Gamete are less viable in decapods and barnacles; disease problems increase Food sources are reduced; larval development and building skeletal structures may be compromised; recruitment is lowered Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms are increased, with periodic oxygen depletion; e.g., on nursery grounds
  53. 53. Probable outcomes of climate change on aquatic genetic resources for major taxa Taxa Warming Acidification Elevated N, P Molluscs Disease problems and irradiation stress increase Shell formation is compromised and recruitment lowered Water toxicity and harmful algal blooms increase Other aquatic invertebrates: e.g., corals, echinoderms Corals are bleached and suffer increased viral attacks; sea urchin gametes are less viability and fertilization is reduced Calcareous skeletal structures are compromised Water toxicity and harmful algal blooms increase; lower light reduces photosynthesis in coral symbionts Finfish Distributions and migrations are altered, poleward shifts in some species; water column mixing and available oxygen decrease; some disease problems increase Distributions and migrations are altered in pH -sensitive species Water toxicity and harmful algal blooms increase
  54. 54. Fostering Adaptation and Mitigation: Our ‘Take Home Messages’ MUSTS TO DO • Take good care of aquatic ecosystems • Maintain diverse gene pools, supporting conservation of genetic resources as a sector • Address ALL of the anthropogenic stressors that work against these goals; not only climate change MUSTS TO AVOID • Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources • Degradation and loss of habitats • Sector-specific policies, institutions and actions that produce conflicts and miss opportunities for multi-sector partnerships and synergy
  55. 55. AquaClimate Future Scenarios Developing measures to cope with predicted Climate Changes 2020 and 2050
  56. 56. Minimum temperatures Increase pond productivity
  57. 57. Minimum temperature difference
  58. 58. Minimum temperature differences 2020 Increase by 0.75 ‘C in January and from July to November Increase of 1.2 ‘C in May and December 2050 Increase of 1 to 1.5 ‘C in January and from July to November Increase of 2 ‘C in May and December
  59. 59. Temperature - Maximum
  60. 60. Temperature Maximum difference
  61. 61. Maximum temperatures difference 2020 Increase of between 0.5 to 0.8 ‘C 2050 Increase of between 1.1 and 1.6 ‘C
  62. 62. Monthly temperature fluctuation
  63. 63. Monthly temperature fluctuation 2020 Higher fluctuation in January (0.5 ‘C) and February (1 ‘C) Less fluctuation in May (0.5 ‘C) 2050 Higher fluctuation in January and October (0.5 ‘C) and February (1 ‘C) Less fluctuation in May (0.5 ‘C)
  64. 64. Precipitation Average (mmmonth)
  65. 65. Precipitation difference (mmmonth)
  66. 66. Differences 2020 Generally slightly higher (20 mm /month) Higher rainfall in June (100 mm) Lower rainfall in July (60 mm) 2050 Generally higher in the first half of the year (20 mm) Generally lower in the second half of the year (20 mm) Higher in May (40 mm) and July and August (90 mm)
  67. 67. Change in river flow from present
  68. 68. Change in riverflow from average
  69. 69. Elevation chart

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